Speculation: Season is over, '19-'20, optimist or pessimist?

[Backyard Hockey]

I cannot be either a pessimist really - or an optimist at this point. I will need to see the roster first. Next year, I surmise that the roster we open with will be fairly changed from where we are now. This season - before the season started - I predicted 80 points for the team. This season was pretty much exactly what I and many others predicted it would be. Without a knowing who is in (and who is out) one cannot tell for next year. That said...

I am encouraged by some of the guys: Cat, Strome, Cagguila, Kahun, and Gus (and, of course, Kane). All likely will be better next year than this year (except Kane - in that how does one improve from where he is - though he should be comparable, one would think). Toews did surprise me this year and that makes me hopeful for him for next year. But... unless the Hawks get a goalie and a #1 and a #2/3 D-man in, no matter what else happens, next season will be -at best - an early exit from the playoffs. The Hawks are three major players away from being something - and that is a long way! Once more, until a legit 1st pairing tandem of D-men come in, this team is going nowhere. That does not mean pessimist - but it is the truth. The Hawks really need some roster changes --- till that plays out, it is too early to predict anything.

It can be argued that the Hawks were better defensively the second half of the season. True. But going from 30th or so in the league to perhaps - in the second half - 20th - 22nd or so in the league, while better --- is really way, way, way too little. This roster of D-men are very unlikely to be much better than that next year (20th or so). And that will be way too poor a D to have the team do much next season. We need D-men badly. It will likely cost us forwards to get such guys. We will see how it plays out roster wise and predict from there.

I don’t think the D was better.

The goaltending was better because Crow was back and played great.

The D - most notably as expressed in goals against - was horrendous all season.

 

[BobbyJet]

I don't think making the playoffs next year is a stretch by any margin, or even the central crown.


But, at that, I could see this team built basically as-is winning the central while being a first round exit without major moves.

Unlikely, but in order for Hawks to be a team headed for the playoffs it will depend to a large extent on good goaltending.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Wild card next year.

 

[saluki]

I'm interested in how much leash Colliton is going to get going forward. Is there anything that can put him on the hot seat next season, or has it been determined from top to bottom that he gets next season no matter what.

It's very strange to see the Hawks look so disorganized on D without much improvement as the season wore on. They must show some kind of progress next year.

Without Kane the Hawks are probably dead last in the NHL.

 

[clydesdale line]

Pretty optimistic. Kane and Toews likely won't have the same seasons again next year (and I doubt Gus will either, but only a slight drop) but guys like Strome, DeBrincat and others should definitely take steps forward. Gonna need more 2 way forwards and a D-man to help clean up the shots against though. A training camp with the same coaching staff will help immensely.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Unlikely, but in order for Hawks to be a team headed for the playoffs it will depend to a large extent on good goaltending.

Not to be an ass but that’s pretty much true of any hockey team in any semi-competitive league.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I feel optimistic, or at least more optimistic than this time a year ago.

I do not feel Bowman will sign an impact player in free agency nor do I see him making a big trade outside of possibly moving out Anisimov. I expect a couple bottom six guys who can PK to be about it (whether that be Tanev or not, I don't know).

I also don't expect Toews, Kane, or Gus to have seasons like this one. They'll all be good players, but their numbers will drop a bit (Toews with 65-70pts, Kane hovering a little over PPG, Gus around 50).

I do see Strome and DeBrincat having better years. Brinksy because he's at this point used to the grind of an 82 game season and is due to play over 20mins every night. Strome because he'll hopefully get faster, or at the very least, stronger.

Kahun, Sikura, Forsling, and Kampf will continue to improve just from getting a bit more experience (and Sikura and Forsling could use a long off-season workout session).

We'll also add Kubalik, who I see as a potential 35-40pt player (similar point numbers as Kahun this season), and Jokiharju, who I have full trust in being a legit top 4 guy next year (outside of a bad game here or there, which is to be expected given his age).

Goaltending is still a question mark, but I expect it'll be Crow and Delia and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Cale Morris signed with us and made things a little more interesting.

PK won't be as bad, PP will be better than this season as a whole, but a drop from the 40% success rate we had going on for a month or two. I expect the PK to be around 20-25th in the league, and the PP to be between 5-15th best.

The biggest improvement, IMO, is going to come from the coaching staff. I was a vocal critic of man-on-man, and feel that this team starting to play better defensively the last month was due in large part to Colliton switching to more of a hybrid system. That defensive system, in addition to a training camp to fully adjust and practice, will pay dividends.

They won't win the cup next year. Likely won't even make it to the WCFs. But they will make the playoffs, and our young guns will finally get their toe(w)s wet. That experience will be needed for future seasons, especially when we have more young kids like Mitchell and Boqvist likely NHL ready for the 20-21 season.

 

[Pez68]

I completely agree with this. Seabrook gets a lot of crap here about going downhill (and rightfully so), but Keith doesn't get enough. He's always been high risk/really high reward, but the high reward part is gone and we are left with just high risk. He constantly bails out of any battle on the boards (and never gets called out on it by Pat and Eddie, even though they love to call everyone else on it), and makes the worst turnovers on the team. You always hear about guys "playing the game the right way", and Keith is basically the opposite of that. He is not a fundamentally sound player, and he is NOT the guy to lead the back end. He is the opposite of heart and soul. Can I have hammer back please.

How completely inaccurate.

I'm interested in how much leash Colliton is going to get going forward. Is there anything that can put him on the hot seat next season, or has it been determined from top to bottom that he gets next season no matter what.

It's very strange to see the Hawks look so disorganized on D without much improvement as the season wore on. They must show some kind of progress next year.

Without Kane the Hawks are probably dead last in the NHL.

Why the hell wouldn't he get next season no matter what? He is their guy...

Without much improvement on D as the season wore on? Did you not watch, say, the entire last month of the season? They went from being a league worst defensive team, to middle of the road. I would call that improvement.

First 62 games: 3.73 GAA(dead last)
Last 20 games: 3.00 GAA(17th)

I'd call reducing their GAA by almost a full goal over the last 20 games pretty significant improvement.

And not for nothing, but they were giving up a couple less shots a game, as well.

A league average penalty kill would bring that GAA down to about 2.75 over the last 20....

Over those last 20 games, they were 7th in ES GA, and 6th in ES GF...

If you aren't optimistic about this team going into next season, my opinion is that you didn't watch the last 20 games, or don't understand what you're watching. Or both.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Optimistic because everything they’ve done and said indicates they realize they are a long way off from contending. It doesn’t seem like they will make any major long term signings or trades which is good for the future IMO.

It’s exciting the team is making progress and fun to see some of the individual talents blossom. It looks like the Hawks are going to be good enough to compete for a playoff spot the next few years.

 

[MileHighHawksFan]

Optimist!

A) I like where JC and the team were headed once everyone got onboard/things clicked, we just seemed to run outta time.

B) JC acknowledged they weren’t able implement everything they wanted, a full training camp should help iron out systematic kinks/ fully immerse the team in their gameplan and identity (this points been driven home pretty hard)

C) Another year of progression for prospects. Who is to say if any will be able to contribute next season but it is safe to say we had a nice year as far as development goes and saw a strong majority take steps in growth.

D) Its been quite some time since we’ve had cap flexibility like this.. Not saying we should use it all, I’d like to see us save around 10 million, maybe more depending on cap increases going into next season ideally for raises to gus, strome, and cat. If they were to do that that theyd still have 8ish to play around with,which is still more than they’ve had in quite some time and if spent correctly can really solidify this group. I’m also ok with them spending more than the amount I’ve suggested if there are shorter term deals involved.

E) Track record with finding cheap And talented Euro’s via FA.

F) Another Top 15 draft pick, hopefully with some lotto luck we jump up to the top 2!

G) Pessimists are no fun, go ruin somebody elses good time.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Optimist, for reasons that most the other optimists have already covered.

 

[ChiHawk21]

nuetral. i think we will be a wildcard or just miss out again. I dont think kane toews debrincat and strome will all have career years again but i do think the roster is improved from early this year and there is no way that we have as bad of a pk but also dont have a crazy pp stretch like we did this year. Depends on what happens this offseason really.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Cautiously optimistic.

Really like what Gus, Strome, Cat have shown as well as Toews bouncing back and Kane still being Kane. The PP becoming a real thing is a huge development. I think the forwards are in really good shape and probably only need a few tweaks like replacing Kunitz, Kruger and Hayden to be ready to roll.

A healthy Crow would fix a lot of problems, but I worry that's too much to ask. The back end worries me though and I think it's going to be rough back there again, baring a major trade. Hopefully a full training camp will clean up some of the mistakes but from a talent perspective, there is limited upside at the blue line for next year. I know the kids are coming, but I it's going to be a bumpy ride to start. The team defense needs to be a lot better as a whole a long with the PK.

All in all I think the arrow is pointed up, but in terms of next years team, they are going to be limited to health of Crow, which gives me pause. Making the playoffs is a realistic goal.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

If you want a good laugh go read the reactions to the oilers end of season press conference

Confirmed with Link: - Bob Nicholson end of season press conference at 10am MDT

As far as the Hawks, optimistic. In JC we trust.

 

[Geoist]

What's your gut feeling?

Mine is...pessimist. This team has a lot of talent, more than many, but during crunch time repeatedly fell short all year long against a really lackluster division & conference as a whole compared to years past.

Not many of those teams lost their longtime coach and had to learn a whole new system on the fly. Yeah, Hawks were terrible against the Pacific, but they did well against Central, if I recall.

 

[Geoist]

But the team we saw in the 2nd half Failed in too many critical games once we got back I'm the wild card race...The team also failed miserably I the final game loss tonight because the big guns were no shows and the team blew a 2-0 lead and the team gave up 50 shots ...and surrendered in the 3rd period.

The team has too many issues that are now u fixable= Keith's decline and Seabrook's embarrassing inability to move ..waddling and flipping is a more apt description.Neither of them should be on the pk ..not Toews either..We need better PK guys..both on D and at forward.We Need a much better 4th lone. .

Will Crawford be able to stay healthy or now at 35 is he going to be injured a lot of the time every season?Who will our back-up be and can he stop pucks given the garbage defending in front of him?

So many holes to fix ...

Sooo... optimist or pessimist?

 

[TLEH]

I’m a pessimist I guess because I think they miss the playoffs again. They played at a good second half pace but some of it was a run by the powerplay and some high on ice shooting percentages. The numbers say the hawks were actually pretty lucky the second half and my eyes would agree with that. I think they’re headed in the right direction but I am less optimistic about it being next season.

 

[Pez68]

I’m a pessimist I guess because I think they miss the playoffs again. They played at a good second half pace but some of it was a run by the powerplay and some high on ice shooting percentages. The numbers say the hawks were actually pretty lucky the second half and my eyes would agree with that. I think they’re headed in the right direction but I am less optimistic about it being next season.

Then that luck evened out towards the end of the second half....when the pucks just weren't going in the net. Such is hockey.

They still played at a 100+ point pace.

 

[swerdnase]

People keep saying they choked in crunch time. They just ran out of gas. Their crunch time started back in December/January.

 

[ChiHawks10]

People keep saying they choked in crunch time. They just ran out of gas. Their crunch time started back in December/January.

NHL players don't just run out of gas. Not going to get into that argument again, though. Go find my reasons in the health thread.

 

[Pez68]

People keep saying they choked in crunch time. They just ran out of gas. Their crunch time started back in December/January.

They played some of their best hockey in the games they lost towards the end of the season... Pucks just weren't going in the net. It happens.

 

[swerdnase]

True (both of you), I picked a bad way to say it. I just meant they had the pedal to the metal for three months straight, to say that they choked is to not give them credit for what they accomplished in getting into the wild card race.

 

[LordKOTL]

Optimist (assuming all stays the same as it is now; it won't but bear with me):
Kruger is gone
Kunitz is gone

Both of them addition by subtraction.

Caligula will be in a contract year
Kahun will be in a contract year
Strome will be in a contract year
Debrincat will be in a contract year
Gus will be in a contract year
Crawford will be either going for another contract or ending his career...either way odds are more in favor that he ups his game the times he's given the crease than not.

So that's 5-6 players who will be playing for a new contract. That's a sizable chunk of the roster right there.

The #2G slot IMHO is not set in stone. Delia is bury-able. That adds Lankinen into "contract year" since I think he'll have a legitimate shot to try to beat Delia out of camp. I wouldn't be surprised if there's 1 more goalie in the race since I'm going off of the assumption that Crawford hangs them up at the end of next season--ergo a starting job is up for grabs at the end of this coming season.

Beyond that--what tails off?

Keith had a respectable year this year after his 2018 fecal-fest. Even though he's older, JC does seem to be managing him a bit better, so I don't see him dropping off much, if at all.
Seabrook would have to actively try to be much worse, but he pretty much is what he is and it's possible that maybe they start metering out his icetime--especially if they want to throw some youth into the equation.
Toews may not have another career year but I don't think he'll be 2016-2018-level of Meh., but honestly he may not tail off at all.
I don't see any likelihood Kane tails off that much--if at all
I see Saad and Anisimov basically treading water where they are.

Further, JC will have a full offseason which certainly can't hurt.

Overall as things stand now the potential positives I listed outweigh the potential negatives. I think playoffs are possible, even if not a deep run. Enough for a "taste" like 2009.

 

[BobbyJet]

I keep thinking how great this time would be with The Masters golf starting tomorrow and hockey playoffs - but unfortunately Hawks season is over and that sours it, to put it mildly.

 

[Conrad McBenis]

Definite optimist. It seems like Toews' concussion/injury woes are behind him and he had a career year. Same with Kane.

The core is getting older but can still hold it down.

As long as Crow can stay healthy and the young dmen (+ Strome) continue to develop... I see them as a 6-7 seed next season. Anyone can get hot in the playoffs.

Will be interesting to see how they draft this year and how Boqvist develops next season.