GDT: SCQ Game 1: Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins 8/1/20 8:00pm EST SN, CBC, TVA

[ThaDevilGirl]

Gotta go dig for my Habs car flag for the playoffs.

 

[PaulD]

Feels like tomorrow will be a spectacular failure. And not even anything remotely entertaining. I predict a game that will suck the life out of anyone watching it.
The only bright spot might be Price and perhaps Suzuki.

Nah. Crosby and Malkin are always worth watching. Pens also have one of the top play off goal scorers in Guentzal.

Having said that I still plan on following the Covid Cup exhibition checking scores on my phone.....and you guys of course.

 

[HankyZetts]

With zero ticket revenue what is the motive for the NHL to so desperate want to play? How are they generating legitimate revenue with zero fans in attendance?

TV deals, Advertising and merch, I'd guess

 

[Prairie Habs]

So this is floating around Twitter:

View attachment 356706

It's victory probabilities from various prediction models. We win 3 out of 6 times and get 50/50 in one other. Pens win 2/6 models, but get 60%+ chance in both.

Don't see Montreal winning this one at all, but they seem to have a better chance than most think.

Basically, it boils down to Montreal being a good 5 on 5 team, and Pens specialty teams not being that much better than Montreal's. Goaltending is also in Montreal's favor.

The last 6 results between the teams.

Montreal won 4-1, lost 4-1, and lost 3-2 in OT this season. Last season, they won 5-1, lost 5-1 and won in a shootout 4-3, so 2-2-2 essentially.

However, it should be noted Pens have had a ton of injuries over the last 2 seasons. They are healthy now.

I think we get swept or at best win one game.

Looking forward to seeing Suzuki and Kotkaniemi play.

I think Domi should play LW with Danault and Gallagher.

Tatar drops down to play with Suzuki.

Drouin drops down to play with Kotkaniemi.

And Byron or Lehkonen drop down to play with Weise and Weal.

Or get Evans in for Weise.

Anyways, expect Pens to win 4-1.

Drouin and kotkaniemi feels like it never really works. I would simplify things and just put domi with kotkaniemi on the third line and look for juicy matchups.

 

[Adam Michaels]

With zero ticket revenue what is the motive for the NHL to so desperate want to play? How are they generating legitimate revenue with zero fans in attendance?

TV & advertising.

Also remember, this isn't only the league to profit from this. The players will in turn do, too. The more money the NHL makes, the more the players can make afterwards.

 

[Omar]

Gotta go dig for my Habs car flag for the playoffs.

Playoffs are next round

 

[Adam Michaels]

Domi 4th line? What?

He may be between Weal and Weise, but on Tuesday's exhibition game, Domi was the second most used forward. Only Suzuki played more than him among forwards.

Domi should Center that 3rd line.

He's had chemistry with Both Byron and Lehkonen... Especially Byron.

But we can't have KK on the 4th, it would kill his confidence.

You say it like Kotkaniemi's confidence is inconsequential. Domi with Byron is good with me. Get Weal and Weise out, bring in Evans and Poehling, and rearrange the Bottom-6.

In fact, I wouldn't be opposed to putting Hudon - Kotkaniemi - Evans together on that 4th line. Those 3 were Laval's top line when they played together and had great chemistry. Obviously, the opposition isn't AHL-level here, but those three have familiarity.

 

[Lshap]

Usually when the playoffs are on the verge of starting I am all fired up but knowing that the Habs didn't make the playoffs legitimately takes the sail out of everything.

I still contend that this is the worst team in NHL history to make the playoffs. Its embarrassing actually.

You're looking at it the wrong way. Of the approximately 1,400 teams to make the playoffs in NHL history, Habs are 24th. That's damn good!

 

[Lshap]

So this is floating around Twitter:

View attachment 356706

It's victory probabilities from various prediction models. We win 3 out of 6 times and get 50/50 in one other. Pens win 2/6 models, but get 60%+ chance in both.

Don't see Montreal winning this one at all, but they seem to have a better chance than most think.

Basically, it boils down to Montreal being a good 5 on 5 team, and Pens specialty teams not being that much better than Montreal's. Goaltending is also in Montreal's favor.

The last 6 results between the teams.

Montreal won 4-1, lost 4-1, and lost 3-2 in OT this season. Last season, they won 5-1, lost 5-1 and won in a shootout 4-3, so 2-2-2 essentially.

However, it should be noted Pens have had a ton of injuries over the last 2 seasons. They are healthy now.

I think we get swept or at best win one game.

Looking forward to seeing Suzuki and Kotkaniemi play.

I think Domi should play LW with Danault and Gallagher.

Tatar drops down to play with Suzuki.

Drouin drops down to play with Kotkaniemi.

And Byron or Lehkonen drop down to play with Weise and Weal.

Or get Evans in for Weise.

Anyways, expect Pens to win 4-1.

The Habs are a perfect example of where analytics hit a wall. Our great shot statistics don't translate into great shots. We watch Lehkonen thump a few harmless shots off the goalie's chest and shake our heads, meanwhile the analytics are cheering wildly.

 

[Picaroon]

Julien trying to run 4 lines against that depth?? Ok bud...

 

[Lshap]

August and Hockey go together like Honeycomb and Scotch. Great on their own, but together...?

 

[Adam Michaels]

The fact that every pundit has Pittsburgh beating Montreal gives me the feeling Habs will pull off the upset. They have that tendency.

There is also have the fact that Habs also seem to play up to their opposition. So if it's a great team, more often than not, they play well.

 

[Habs Icing]

TV deals, Advertising and merch, I'd guess

It might also be a great opportunity to get new fans. With the NFL in limbo, baseball getting hit hard by Covid, basketball is the only other game out there. You have 330 million Americans in semi-lockdown and nothing on TV. Perfect time for the NHL to expand.

 

[Habs Icing]

August and Hockey go together like Honeycomb and Scotch. Great on their own, but together...?

Don't knock it if you haven't tried it. The Scotch. Not hockey.

 

[habsfan891]

I wont be able to watch this evening so im relying on you guys to let me know that we are getting one step closer to a top 10 pick.

 

[Lshap]

Don't knock it if you haven't tried it. The Scotch. Not hockey.

I've heard rumours that Scotch is a drink. If this is this true, I may try it one day. Thank you for the reminder!

 

[Tyson]

The fact that every pundit has Pittsburgh beating Montreal gives me the feeling Habs will pull off the upset. They have that tendency.

There is also have the fact that Habs also seem to play up to their opposition. So if it's a great team, more often than not, they play well.

Habs have nothing to offset Crosby and Malkin.

Pittsburgh is just as fast or faster, much more skilled. Habs D corps is embarrassing. Kulak and Ouellet?

In goal we hear about how great Price is and i would argue that his play has steadily gone downhill the past 3 years. At best he is a top 15 goalie and Pitt has the edge there.

Special teams? LOL

 

[Archijerej]

The fact that every pundit has Pittsburgh beating Montreal gives me the feeling Habs will pull off the upset. They have that tendency.

There is also have the fact that Habs also seem to play up to their opposition. So if it's a great team, more often than not, they play well.

Normally, I wouldn't write us off. But teams will not be very well drilled with so little time for preparation and system and structure are basically our only force multimplier against better talent. I expect us to be overwhelmed.

 

[HBDay]

I've heard rumours that Scotch is a drink. If this is this true, I may try it one day. Thank you for the reminder!

Do it while there is still scotch older than you.

 

[Tyson]

Julien trying to run 4 lines against that depth?? Ok bud...

Weise and Weal I would argue are not NHL players.
Just play the kids...damn it

 

[Sterling Archer]

I still don’t like the lineup. How about something like this to spread the scoring:

Tatar Danault Gally
Drouin Domi Armia
Lehkonen KK Suzuki
Scrap heap

 

[WeThreeKings]

I might need to join Pittsburgh's GDT so I can cheer for the outcome I want without offending anyone.

Sorry guys

 

[Lshap]

The fact that every pundit has Pittsburgh beating Montreal gives me the feeling Habs will pull off the upset. They have that tendency.

There is also have the fact that Habs also seem to play up to their opposition. So if it's a great team, more often than not, they play well.

I'm also concerned about this. But notice I used the word "Concerned" instead of "Excited", which is a tell. Which makes me think the healthiest approach is to turn off the long-term analysis part of my brain and accept whatever happens. Which then makes me think we're doing wayyy too much thinking about a game we can't control and have no stake in whatsoever.

So about that Scotch...

 

[Lshap]

Do it while there is still scotch older than you.

It's close, but that's actually funnier than it is insulting!

 

[NORiculous]

With zero ticket revenue what is the motive for the NHL to so desperate want to play? How are they generating legitimate revenue with zero fans in attendance?

Just guessing but it is probably to honor something related to tv contract and keep fans interested