Prospect Info: Scott Perunovich (2018 Draft - 45th overall)

[The Note in MI]

He isn’t as dynamic as I anticipated, expected more agility and foot speed. You see flashes of it but would rather see him use his speed aggressively in the d zone to hound puck carriers. Along the boards he’s overmatched, but shows decent stick work that will need to improve to play at the NHL level.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I got a nice lazy Sunday going on here so I decided to watch this. Somebody already posted Scotty’s shift-by-shift, but I’ll offer my notes too.

Through one period, they’ve used Perunovich (#7) sparingly. Defensively, I would characterize him as passive. He has a good stick, but he’ll need to learn how to get his body between a checking forward and the puck to handle his duties effectively. His breakout passing is very good, he’s got good vision. He also has the ability to carry it with speed, but again he seems shy against bigger competition. In general, doesn’t seem to be super effective on the backcheck, but his stick is live enough that he’s made some nifty plays. He’ll need to improve that aspect a lot to get to use the parts of his game that make him effective. On the line, he reminds me a bit of Walman in that he can make good plays under pressure and find the open man or get a shot off. First period ends with UMD on the PP, so we’ll see what he does with that in the second.

Additionally I’m paying attention to our AHL-signee Jared Thomas. Big #22 is playing on what has been far and away UMDs best line so far. Bucci and Melrose have actually been calling it the “Thomas Line” so far. He’s been on the ice for both UMD goals, scoring one of those with a really nice play down low on a bad angle shot that resulted directly from his overpowering forecheck on CBJ-draftee Andrew Peeke. I really like the way he’s gotten around the ice, even more so for a bigger guy. I’ve liked his game better than Tufte’s, but there are matchup factors at play there too. Nevertheless, he seems like a Poganski-type that can play a tough game and chip in some scoring.

More to come...

Another mixed bag of a period for #7. Started off with some good not great puck movement on the PP, but then immediately put Notre Dame on the PP with a silly interference penalty where the guy basically flipped over him when #7 put his body between him and the puck. Later he made a good, physical play to take out a guy on an odd-man rush, preventing a good scoring chance. But then towards the end of the period, he just go straight up walked, and if the puck hadn’t gotten away from the ND forward, it would have surely been a goal. I’m noticing that he tends to be a little flat-footed at times, especially if he’s in front of his goalie. Part of that is a height thing: he can’t haunch down and do work that way because then he’d be about 5’3”. He gets pushed around a lot. He hasn’t had the puck on his stick much this game, so I haven’t gotten to see what all he can do with it, but he’s had a few nice rushes, carrying the puck into the zone on the PP. But it also hasn’t been terribly difficult for the ND PKers to neutralize him either. I don’t think anybody would mistake him for Cale Makar out there in this game. Others have noted this too, but I’m not seeing the explosiveness I was expecting to see.

Thomas continues to impress with good checking, decent skating, and a few very impressive shots on the PP. UMD basically ran an old Blues-style PP with Thomas where Steen used to be; at the top of the blue line between the two dmen. He unleashed a few bombs from there, and he can really let them go. I don’t want to get carried away with my evaluation here, he’s not going to be pushing for NHL time anytime soon if ever, but he’s been very effective in this game, and he’s exactly the kind of guy I’d be happy to put in San Antonio to round out the lineup.

One more period to go...

 

[stl76]

Minor point, but if he is actually 164 lbs, he will need to put on some weight. He will get ragdolled. increasingly unhappy with this pick.

Perunovich will definitely have to beef up and improve his stickwork and skating in order to be an effective NHL dman in his own zone. I don't think it's fair to say he will get rag dolled though. Can't rag doll what you can't catch. In today's NHL you can be an effective defender with hockey IQ, quickness, and an active stick.

Between Parayko, Edmundson, Pietrangelo, Bortuzzo, and even Bouwmeester...Blues have plenty of size on the backend. Seriously, we might have the biggest D corps in the league. Even Dunn who is considered a smaller guy is 6 foot 200 lbs. Perunovich is not going to be a crease clearer, but he shouldn't have to be.

I’m fine with the pick. I would’ve rather had Wise or Thomas but obviously the Blues scouts know these kids better than me. I don’t like that CHI got Wise though. I think the Hawks had a fantastic draft, which sucks.

Ugh tell me about it...Nick Schmaltz 2.0

Thanks for chopping up the shift-by-shift videos, definitely going to check those out.

 

[Robb_K]

Assurances at the draft dont mean much, it just takes one team drafting in front of you to take the player or another player you like more to fall to make that assurance moot. Bokk was ranked 18 on MacKenzie's list, so there was no guarantee at all that he was going to be there. He also didnt really fill an organizational need, so I dont necessarily buy that line of reasoning either.

The Blues come up with their own list of BPA, and I am sure it varies widely from other teams' lists or Bob MacKenzie's aggregated list. Its entirely possible that they had Bokk in their top 10-15 prospects.

Bottom line is if a 'best player available' is slipping down the boards, its because none of the teams who have drafted thought that he was the best player available when they drafted. If teams are staying away from a prospect, there is probably a legitimate reason for it.

Bokk has upside and skill level matching those forwards taken in the 17-21 picks. But, he hasn't played much at the highest level of competition for his age group. So, he will need a lot more time to become NHL ready. If he takes 1-2 extra years to be ready to contribute on a regular basis in The NHL, his value goes down to a team, especially a team that needs new, low-cost young players added to the line-up now. That isn't a problem for The Blues, because they have several young right-shooting forwards already at, or nearing NHL-readiness, and can only safely add 2 rookie forwards to The Top 9 in a single season. Adding 3 would be too much strain on the team defence, and hurt other aspects of team play. So Bokk was a good bargain for The Blues, and a way they could get an eventual higher-level skilled player than they normally would with that late 1st Round pick. So, the fact that several other teams passed on Bokk doesn't bother me. They were looking for more immediate help.

 

[stl76]

Watching those shift-by-shift videos, I will say that Perunovich's decision making and turnovers at his own blue line/in the dzone are way more concerning than his size.

 

[Celtic Note]

Maybe Keith has too much prestige within the organization as a scout?

 

[The Note in MI]

Taking this guy at 45 seems like a massive reach but I don’t know, I’m not a great scout.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Another mixed bag of a period for #7. Started off with some good not great puck movement on the PP, but then immediately put Notre Dame on the PP with a silly interference penalty where the guy basically flipped over him when #7 put his body between him and the puck. Later he made a good, physical play to take out a guy on an odd-man rush, preventing a good scoring chance. But then towards the end of the period, he just go straight up walked, and if the puck hadn’t gotten away from the ND forward, it would have surely been a goal. I’m noticing that he tends to be a little flat-footed at times, especially if he’s in front of his goalie. Part of that is a height thing: he can’t haunch down and do work that way because then he’d be about 5’3”. He gets pushed around a lot. He hasn’t had the puck on his stick much this game, so I haven’t gotten to see what all he can do with it, but he’s had a few nice rushes, carrying the puck into the zone on the PP. But it also hasn’t been terribly difficult for the ND PKers to neutralize him either. I don’t think anybody would mistake him for Cale Makar out there in this game. Others have noted this too, but I’m not seeing the explosiveness I was expecting to see.

Thomas continues to impress with good checking, decent skating, and a few very impressive shots on the PP. UMD basically ran an old Blues-style PP with Thomas where Steen used to be; at the top of the blue line between the two dmen. He unleashed a few bombs from there, and he can really let them go. I don’t want to get carried away with my evaluation here, he’s not going to be pushing for NHL time anytime soon if ever, but he’s been very effective in this game, and he’s exactly the kind of guy I’d be happy to put in San Antonio to round out the lineup.

One more period to go...

I have fewer notes this period. #7 had a nice shot on goal through traffic that nearly caught Morris off guard. But he also had a few failed or weak clearing attempts that put his team at risk. To his credit, his coach trusted him out there with NDs goalie pulled in the final minutes, and when called upon, he made some nice clears off the glass. I’m not sure Perunovich played more than 12-13 minutes all game.

In the same vein, it seemed like Thomas’ line was out there every other shift, they were incredibly dominant, slicing up NDs defense like butter. #22 made some really nice plays, and was the guy they put on the dot for big face offs in front of their own goalie.

So, one game isn’t quite “due diligence” as far as prospect eval goes. But in general, Perunovich never really got to his game, was poor in his own end, struggled with gap control, and made a few unforced errors on the breakout. There is absolutely some potential there, he can really move the puck and make some nice plays in the offensive zone. But based off of this one viewing, I wouldn’t have guessed he was a 2nd round draft pick, especially compared to UMDs other rookie dmen. The big grain of salt here is that clearly, clearly there is something to his game not shown here that led him to be named to the first all-star team, the WJC-U20s, and earn ROY for the NCHC. He strikes me as a player that will need to be sheltered, and he’s going to have to be a lot quicker in his decision making to make it at all. For a player his size, he has to be decisive and explosive to make up for the lack of reach which decreases his margin of error. If he can’t figure out a way to stop bigger competition from making plays around (or over) him, he won’t make it, even if he can move the puck well. Walman was a lot more mature defensively when he left Providence, and we are all aware of the steep learning curve he has encountered.

On the flip side, Thomas is a guy I’m looking forward to. He’s very old for a prospect, but he showed that he can be “the guy” in a big game and make some nifty plays. He’s got the size, speed, shot, and hockey sense you want to see in a player. I still think the Austin Poganski comparison is accurate, so don’t go putting him in the top-10 prospects or anything, but compared to other guys we’ve signed out of college like Selman, I feel confident that he can be serviceable in an AHL depth role at the very least. His leadership and composure is valuable in of itself, imo.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Maybe Keith has too much prestige within the organization as a scout?

With Perunovich, Reinke, and McGing being his first contributions, yeah I’d say we need to be careful with that moving forward.

It’s interesting, nobody else seems to be investing nearly as much in that market as we are right now. I don’t have the numbers with me atm, but traditionally the NCHC translation factors are extremely low compared to other leagues, and even other NCAA conferences like Hockey East. So either we’re about to do some serious exploitation of that market and start a new trend (in which case you go get em Keith), or were about to pay the price for a whole lot of poorly-invested assets.

What’s especially interesting is that none of these guys are guys that I would look at and say “that’s a guy that Keith motherf***ing Tkachuk would love.” We are really off the map with these picks/signings right now, and I think that the stats are evidence enough to be skeptical about these decisions. It’s one thing to say “we’re going to go after college players more,” but it’s another thing altogether to get guys fitting that profile who don’t have the size/skills to play in the NHL. Looking good in a very weak college conference is not the same as looking good against CHL competition, and I’m worried that we aren’t paying enough attention to that distinction.

 

[EastonBlues22]

One of the things that concerns me is that both Bokk and Perunovich mentioned in their interviews that the team had talked to them before the draft and said they intended to take them. Certainly with the second pick, but arguably also with the first, there were guys left on the board who were rated higher than the guys we picked and filled an organizational need. For all the talk about best player available, I hope we didn’t lock in on “our guys” and leave a better player on the board just because we gave a prospect an assurance that we intended to draft them.

That struck me as well, and I share the same concern.

It's one thing to trade up for a guy in the first that you like a lot and that's clearly high on your overall list. It's quite another to "lock in" on a guy in the mid-2nd where any number of guys might fall to you, especially if he was already a reach at that spot. It's generally much better to take the value that comes to you in a draft than it is to chase specific players.

 

[MissouriMook]

That struck me as well, and I share the same concern.

It's one thing to trade up for a guy in the first that you like a lot and that's clearly high on your overall list. It's quite another to "lock in" on a guy in the mid-2nd where any number of guys might fall to you, especially if he was already a reach at that spot. It's generally much better to take the value that comes to you in a draft than it is to chase specific players.

Maybe I just don’t know enough about the process pre-draft and on draft day, but that seems like exactly what Chicago did with their draft, I just don’t get the same feeling about ours.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I watched the game yesterday as well, Morty, and I generally agree with your take. IIRC, I counted five defensive zone turnovers, one joined rush, one failed attempt (offsides) to walk the line in the offensive zone, two nice plays where he used his body/physicality to separate someone from the puck, one play where he was rag-dolled himself, some pucks successfully fished out of scrums, and generally being over-matched on the boards in spite of a willingness to throws his body into the opponent. I can't recall him pinching in along the offensive boards even once, which could certainly have been a result of UMD's game plan, but it was still something that I found odd.

He wasn't a flat-out liability, which is saying something I suppose as a freshman in the championship game, but he wasn't a difference maker, either. Clearly we weren't seeing his "average" game given his accolades this year, but it was somewhat illustrative of the hurdles he'll face moving forward.

I found it somewhat interesting how UMD's scheming favored him, at least in this game. UMD often dropped all five players back behind the red line to force dump-ins, and Perunovich was often the one shading back in anticipation to retrieve. He was rarely tasked with holding the defensive blue line, and he spent a lot of time in front of UMD's net while other guys were doing the grunt work in the corners. He's not going to have those luxuries at higher levels. To be fair, he probably didn't have that at the WJC, either, and that didn't seem to stop his play there from getting good reviews.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Maybe I just don’t know enough about the process pre-draft and on draft day, but that seems like exactly what Chicago did with their draft, I just don’t get the same feeling about ours.

It's hard to know without knowing the Blues exact draft list and how it was compiled.

If Perunovich was at the top of their BPA list when they were on the clock at #45, which I would personally find hard to believe, we'd need to know what process landed him there over guys forwards like Thomas, Wise, etc. and even other defenders like Tychonick, Addison, and Durzi. If he wasn't and the Blues picked him anyway...well, why did they feel compelled to make that specific pick?

We're probably not going to get any of those answers, unfortunately. I just know he's not the choice I would have made.

 

[MissouriMook]

Sounds like we should expect that he isn’t going to be ready until after his Junior year and may need all 4 years for skills development and bulking up.

 

[Blueston]

Why do we think he wasn't our top rated player on the board at 45? Would be pretty stupid to take him if we thought he ranked behind Tychonick, Addison, or others. I have no idea if he will be good NHLer, but clubs need to trust their rankings and not rely on "consensus picks". Jaden and Oshie were both thought to be off the board picks. EJ was talked about as consensus top pick.

Yeah, he made some sloppy psses in own zone in ND game but those can be corrected. His outlet passes were otherwise crisp and on mark. He showed some nice defensive skill breaking up couple plays. And even though he is offensive-minded, coach kept him out there when he shortened bench in 3rd. And other than after turnover, ND didn't seem to generate any pressure when he was on the ice. I thought he was intriguing- Melrose loved him, not that means anything- but really can't tell based on 1 viewing. There is real danger in reading too much into small samples. How many of us have really seen much of any of these guys outside of WJC or U18 or Frozen 4 or Memorial Cup? Almost certain none of us have interviewed these guys, know how hard they will work, or whether they are great teammates. Scouting is about projecting from where they are now and not just who is best today.

 

[stl76]

Sounds like we should expect that he isn’t going to be ready until after his Junior year and may need all 4 years for skills development and bulking up.

Curious why you think he may need all 4 years/won't leave college until after his junior year?

 

[EastonBlues22]

Why do we think he wasn't our top rated player on the board at 45? Would be pretty stupid to take him if we thought he ranked behind Tychonick, Addison, or others. I have no idea if he will be good NHLer, but clubs need to trust their rankings and not rely on "consensus picks". Jaden and Oshie were both thought to be off the board picks. EJ was talked about as consensus top pick.

Yeah, he made some sloppy psses in own zone in ND game but those can be corrected. His outlet passes were otherwise crisp and on mark. He showed some nice defensive skill breaking up couple plays. And even though he is offensive-minded, coach kept him out there when he shortened bench in 3rd. And other than after turnover, ND didn't seem to generate any pressure when he was on the ice. I thought he was intriguing- Melrose loved him, not that means anything- but really can't tell based on 1 viewing. There is real danger in reading too much into small samples. How many of us have really seen much of any of these guys outside of WJC or U18 or Frozen 4 or Memorial Cup? Almost certain none of us have interviewed these guys, know how hard they will work, or whether they are great teammates. Scouting is about projecting from where they are now and not just who is best today.

Could have easily been behind one or more forwards, and the Blues simply felt that they needed to take a defenseman there. Stuff like that happens a lot more often than you might think.

I think everyone here is acknowledging that one game is just one game, and that there's clearly more to him than what our takeaways from that one game suggest. Still, does that mean that what was observed in that one game didn't matter and it shouldn't be discussed at all?

I don't know if I agree with that. It's still something concrete to talk about that can add value to our understanding of him. As more and more viewings and information are added (prospect camp, training camp, next season, etc.), the conversation will evolve appropriately.

 

[simon IC]

Excellent reading here. Thank you Easton and Morty for the reports! I don't have access to a lot of college hockey, so I really appreciate the detailed and insightful reviews. I am in the process now of reading and watching as much as I can about all of our draft picks, so hopefully I can add to the discussion in a meaningful way. I have to admit, the draft is my favourite part of the hockey year, even if I did find this year to be a bit of a disappointment.

 

[MissouriMook]

Curious why you think he may need all 4 years/won't leave college until after his junior year?

Weight, or lack thereof, and the need to develop his physical and mental game. No reason to rush either of these or to rush him into the AHL unless he is no longer getting first pairing opportunities in the college game. If he needs to add 15-20 pounds there is no reason to try to rush that in one offseason.

 

[Blueston]

Could have easily been behind one or more forwards, and the Blues simply felt that they needed to take a defenseman there. Stuff like that happens a lot more often than you might think.

Teams do I think rightly take organizational needs (not so much current roster but projecting into future) into account and if they have players ranked similarly, draft for that. This is why I specifically listed the other defensemen mentioned and not forwards, bc if we felt we needed offensive defenseman hard to think we'd have taken him if we had Tychonick or Addison higher.

 

[Blueston]

I think everyone here is acknowledging that one game is just one game, and that there's clearly more to him than what our takeaways from that one game suggest. Still, does that mean that what was observed in that one game didn't matter and it shouldn't be discussed at all?

I don't know if I agree with that. It's still something concrete to talk about that can add value to our understanding of him. As more and more viewings and information are added (prospect camp, training camp, next season, etc.), the conversation will evolve appropriately.

Absolutely we should discuss what we saw. Just think we should be focusing on is what can translate (speed, outlets, hockey sense), what can be improved (don't be so reckless skating into traffic with puck in your zone), and not just results (he made a few sloppy passes and took a penalty) that are skewed by limited viewings.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Teams do I think rightly take organizational needs (not so much current roster but projecting into future) into account and if they have players ranked similarly, draft for that. This is why I specifically listed the other defensemen mentioned and not forwards, bc if we felt we needed offensive defenseman hard to think we'd have taken him if we had Tychonick or Addison higher.

Oh, I only mentioned them because I was curious what it was about their ranking process that led them to place Perunovich above similar guys like that. Teams don't usually go for under-sized over-age defenders in the mid second round. Did they think he was that much more skilled than the others? Like his character better? Favor his age (due to being further along developmentally)? Favor his development path?

I think it would be very interesting to have the answer to that question.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Did anyone see his interview with Stickland? Found it strange Blues came to the draft with a pre-stitched Perunovich Jersey. That would give some credence to the idea that they were picking him there no matter what. They also telegraphed trading up for Bokk the day before. That was likely one of many scenarios that could have unfolded but interesting nonetheless.

I would have taken Thomas or Wise there to be honest. Both were mocked to the Blues at pick 29. With Eddy, Dunn, Mikkola, Walman. Lindbohn in the system, LD isn't really that pressing of a need both near and long term. After Thomas, the cupboard is pretty thin at C. I will definitely be keeping tabs on the Wise/Thomas as they develop.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Absolutely we should discuss what we saw. Just think we should be focusing on is what can translate (speed, outlets, hockey sense), what can be improved (don't be so reckless skating into traffic with puck in your zone), and not just results (he made a few sloppy passes and took a penalty) that are skewed by limited viewings.

A good point, but it's all subject to the limited viewing caveat.

For example, his speed wasn't really a factor at all in that game. I don't recall him gaining the offensive zone with possession himself even once, or even successfully carrying the puck out of his zone himself (save for PP breakouts), which is something you would kind of expect to see from a highly mobile PMD type defenseman. It simply wasn't a factor in his zone to zone play that game.

I don't know if that's typical or not because it was just one game. All I can say is that on this particular day, his speed really wasn't much of an asset.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Did anyone see his interview with Stickland? Found it strange Blues came to the draft with a pre-stitched Perunovich Jersey. That would give some credence to the idea that they were picking him there no matter what. They also telegraphed trading up for Bokk the day before. That was likely one of many scenarios that could have unfolded but interesting nonetheless.

I would have taken Thomas or Wise there to be honest. Both were mocked to the Blues at pick 29. With Eddy, Dunn, Mikkola, Walman. Lindbohn in the system, LD isn't really that pressing of a need both near and long term. After Thomas, the cupboard is pretty thin at C. I will definitely be keeping tabs on the Wise/Thomas as they develop.

I think it's been mentioned a couple of times elsewhere...maybe in the GDT?

For what it's worth, Perunovich played mostly RD in the posted game, with some odd shifts at LD (when the pairings were a bit mixed, or sometimes due to him lining up at LD for offensive zone faceoffs on that side). So you can add some measure of positional flexibility to what he has going for him.