Confirmed with Link: Scandella signs 4 year deal ($3.275m AAV)

Discussion in 'St. Louis Blues' started by Alklha, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. Mud the ACAS St. Louis Blues: 2019 Stanley Cup Champions

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    They'll have to take on so much salary anyway at the draft. The question is how they do it. I'm sure other teams will also have big contracts out, and they'll also be throwing bait at Seattle to take those. The question is what cost we have to pay to move Faulk's contract that way.

    This is nutty thinking. I also wouldn't count on compliance buyouts.

    Right, but it would be great if our GM would quit making mistakes - especially unforced mistakes - that he has to fix down the road.
     
  2. Mud the ACAS St. Louis Blues: 2019 Stanley Cup Champions

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    If people think the cap is going up for 2020-21 and escrow is going to be manageable on top of that, I suggest getting kicked in the nads repeatedly until you come back to reality. That approach puts a shitload of risk on the owners. If revenues don't come back to support the intended cap and they can't claw back to 50/50 with escrow, who's losing out? And, with no extension of the CBA in place, there's no time to recoup that.

    OK, so maybe they agree to an extension of the CBA to spread out that needed clawback over time without seriously impacting the players. Say the following happens:

    • The CBA is extended until the point at which the owners are made whole
    • Escrow for the players is capped at 15% a year
    • Any shortfalls to actual escrow needed are carried forward until the owners are made whole
    • The NHL ends up with 75% of its expected HRR for 2019-20
    • The NHL gets the same HRR in 2020-21 as for 2019-20
    • HRR thereafter grows at 5% a year from the expected HRR amount from 2019-20
    • The players get a 2% bump on the cap for 2020-21 (e.g., player salaries in aggregate go up 2%) and the cap stays flat (player salaries stay flat in aggregate) thereafter until the owners are made whole.
    How long will that take? A very crude back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests it could take through the 2025-26 year to finally get the owners caught up. That includes possibly 2 years where the players are clearly not getting paid 50% of actual HRR, yet are having to pay into escrow to make up for past shortfalls. That also means the 2022 Olympics probably go off the boards and the 2026 Olympics are a question mark (the players can't leverage "we may not do a CBA" in exchange for it).

    If the escrow cap gets raised to 20%, that moves the break-even spot to 2023-24. Are the players really willing to give up 20% of their paychecks, though?

    That's why I don't see the cap moving up at all for a while, especially if (when) the owners say "we want a guaranteed 50/50 split of HRR." That's going to require escrow, and that's going to cause pain for the players. If they want to avoid that, they better start thinking of what they're willing to give up to get more than 50% - and I'm not talking "high quality bath towels" in the locker room.
     
  3. Nederlander Registered User

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    I like this deal. We don't know what's going on with Pietrangelo negotiations, and Army has to cover his bases just in case. I disagree with whoever said Parayko can't take over as #1 -- he's an excellent defender and really stepped up his offensive game the last month. Which PP unit looked better -- the #1 unit with Pietrangelo or #2 with Dunn and Parayko? We have to be able to sign Parayko long-term.

    Yes, the Faulk deal looks bad, but Scandella has fit right in, and I think it was the right thing to do to sign him. Hopefully, with some incentive, Seattle will take Faulk off our hands.
     
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  4. CaliforniaBlues310 Registered User

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    I don’t actually think they’ll trade Schwartz and do the Hall thing, I was just showing that it was possible and that our situation isn’t that dire.

    Strickland tweeted today that the players were told the cap was going to remain the same. I keep seeing rumors about the compliance buyouts though, so I wouldn’t be shocked if it was a thing, just like after the full season lockout.

    Say it is a thing though, I went on today after Mac’s signing and did this. I don’t think the moves are unrealistic, and it’s all players that need to be moved out for youth anyways.

    C688F387-F8B8-4221-A59F-4F03C9269565.png D07CADF9-5DB5-42C7-8685-40ED3ACDB817.png 0DE33EA4-FCD6-42DA-86C0-10FF687272C5.png

    DLR, Maroody, and Poganski would challenge Kostin for that last forward spot, and Mikkola/Perunovich would battle for 3LD.

    I also had them signing Domingue to battle with Husso for the backup spot.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  5. Brockon Cautiously optimistic realist when caffeinated.

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    I think that's pretty realistic. Solid work!

    I think the only one I don't agree with is Dunn at 4.5m unless he's getting signed for 4-5 years.

    I feel he's more likely to be signing in the 2.5-3 range for 2 years.
     
  6. Mud the ACAS St. Louis Blues: 2019 Stanley Cup Champions

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    Compliance buyouts were necessary twice before because the percentage of revenues being allocated to the players changed. Hence the "compliance" part of the term. Nothing like that is going to happen here.

    ZOMG, THE CAP MIGHT GO DOWN. Big deal; shit happens. It's not a change in the structure of how the cap is going to work going forward; it's a necessary adjustment because of a historic, unexpected event. The players can either take a 1-year across-the-board salary cut to fit, or they can "get their full salary" and pay through the nose for escrow to get them back to a 50/50 split of HRR. All compliance buyouts would do right now is give GMs yet another "get out of jail free" card for past mistakes, and I swear I have to be one of the few people in the hockey world who's dead-set against that.
     
  7. mynamejeff420 Registered User

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    My overall point is spending ~$10m on Pietrangelo makes a lot more sense than spending it on Faulk/Scandella, even if my characterization of them is a little unfair. I don't think my point falls apart if Faulk/Scandella are actually sort of decent, because combined they're still nowhere near Pietrangelo's level.

    As for my point that Faulk and Scandella are shitty, they are.

    Faulk: not that good defensively, decent driver of offense but not nearly to the degree to which his defense is bad, terrible driver of goals. Made the Hurricanes PP much worse for years.

    Scandella: Bad defense, bad offense, bad goal results. Unable to drive play or scoring.

    upload_2020-4-17_18-27-21.png

    Conclusion: Both are, in fact, shitty players.
     
  8. simon IC HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    How many more years of RFA does Dunn have?
     
  9. CaliforniaBlues310 Registered User

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    Thank you! I had Dunn signed at a 3yr/13.5 deal though.


    If we can’t buy out Steen, I’d put him back in that range you mentioned. With more free space available, I gave him and Petro higher AAV’s than I would if we were in more of a crunch. Same thing with retaining a million on Bozak for a year.

    We can still fit Petro(8.5) and Dunn(2.5) in without the buyout.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2020
  10. simon IC HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Nice work! One issue I have is Bozak to Edmonton. Tyler and his family are pretty happy in St. Louis, and he has a modified NTC. I am not sure Edmonton is a location they would choose to go to.
     
  11. CaliforniaBlues310 Registered User

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    I was more so looking for competitive teams who have some space this summer, and a need for a solid middle 6 center. Since he’s from Regina, I figured he’d accept, since it’s not super far from Edmonton.
     
  12. Davimir Tarablad Registered User

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    I do believe he has 4 years left
     
  13. simon IC HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Thanks! So ideally, Dunn should be offered a 2yr deal.
     
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  14. LetsGoBooze Brett Hull is my Spirit Animal

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    This is the easy fix. I'd take Pie back for anything south of 9.5 milly.
     
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  15. TheDizee The Ref Jose Slayer, ALWAYS RIGHT

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    if they can get what the caps did with orpik where they trade steen to someone with the purpose of that team buying them out, then resign at a cheaper rate, id be willing to possibly part with 1st round pick for that cap dump.

    allen will be moved but because of his play this year, i actually think he has value. if the steen trade cannot happen, bozak or faulk will be moved
     
  16. Robb_K Registered User

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    This really shows that you can't go by on ice statistics alone. I watched every second that Scandella was on the ice for The Blues, and I thought he did a good job. There WERE goals against scored while he was on the ice. But. almost all of the time, those goals weren't scored because of some mistake, bad play, or his lack of physical ability or skill. Yes, he DID make SOME mental errors and misjudged some plays (but no more than other competent players do). I watched every second of Faulk's play, as well. I saw a lot more judgement errors, nervous play, misreading plays. He did make up for some of that using skating speed. But, overall, he looked more shaky, and it seemed that a fair amount more goals were scored as a result of his miscues and misreads, and being out of position than happened when Scandella was on the ice. So those stats have to be considered, only after watching all the film on both players, to decide how much more one player is worth to this team than the other, going forward. The stats make them look fairly close n value. Even given that, with Scandella having a significantly lower cap hit, Faulk seems like the one to be dumped off, if possible, IF Pietrangelo wants to stay.
     
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  17. Brian39 Registered User Sponsor

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    I don't understand how this "the 2nd PP unit is better than the 1st unit" narrative has become an accepted fact.

    The top unit accounted for 37 of the team's 49 power play goals this year. The 2nd unit accounted for the other 12. There are 9 teams who have less than 37 total power play goals this season. Our PP % is 3rd in the league. We have an elite powerplay with the top unit accounting for 75% of the production. This trope that the top unit needs to be replaced needs to stop.

    Petro is tied for the 6th most powerplay points among NHL D men. The idea that anyone can get plugged in and do that is not a given.

    For me, Petro's contribution to the PP is fairly low on my list of concerns if he walks. That is one of his few strengths that we can reasonably replace internally (in no small part because Faulk should be able to slide into the 2nd unit to replace Dunn/Parayko when they get nudged up). But it is absolutely not because our top unit wasn't great.

    The issue is way more about 5 on 5. Parayko can't replace what Petro does unless he drastically alters his game. If he is able to do that, we then need someone to replace Parayko's role. We absolutely don't have that internally.
     
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  18. Brian39 Registered User Sponsor

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    The owners don't need to say this. It is mandated in the CBA. Unless both sides agree to scrap the existing CBA and start from scratch, the HRR split will be 50/50. Any hypothetical that doesn't split HRR 50/50 can be dismissed as a pipe dream. They will be negotiating the mechanism to achieve the 50/50 split (salary givebacks, huge escrow this year, increased escrow over multiple years, lowered cap, etc) but all of those negotiations are centered around the 50/50 split that his mandated by the CBA. That is not open for negotiation.
     
  19. Brian39 Registered User Sponsor

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    Can you share Parayko's table? I'm not a patron of the site, but last time I saw his table from evolving hockey he was in the negative for damn near everything. I'd love to see how he compares to Scandella. J-Bo's tables have always been terribel from Evolving Hockey, so I assume you believe he is shitty as well.

    Can you also show their tables just for their time with the Blues and Scandella's time with Minnesota?
     
  20. Ranksu Crotch Academy ftw

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    Is there stats how much difference is unite who start first powerplay vs. unite who comes play rest of powerplay?

    I view overally 2nd unite has more tools and different setup compare to 1st powerplay which rely heavily Perron's and Pietro's shot.
     
  21. simon IC HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Excellent post, Robb. I completely agree. I also watched both Scandella and Faulk intently this past season, and my conclusions are exactly the same as yours.
     
  22. mynamejeff420 Registered User

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    Actually Parayko is one of the best defensemen in the league according to EH's metrics, especially defensively.

    upload_2020-4-19_19-11-7.png

    At one point he broke the chart his defense was so good.
    upload_2020-4-19_19-11-45.png

    But yes J-Bo has not been good over the past few years:
    upload_2020-4-19_19-12-28.png

    Scandella is definitely an upgrade on Bouwmeester, that's for sure.

    As for his time in Minnesota, he definitely used to be a lot better, but he was also a lot younger and so it's likely that he's declined since then (especially since his metrics since the 2016/2017 have continued to go down).

    upload_2020-4-19_19-14-14.png

    As for his time in just St. Louis, I don't have that in chart form but the data is available so I'll just provide that:

    RAPMGF/60xGF/60CF/60xGA/60CA/60
    Marco Scandella0.0080.039-0.33-0.101-1.92

    So from just his time in St. Louis he was good defensively and fine offensively, but it's a sample of only 11 games and 189 minutes so it's not really a lot to be confident about. I get why people in this thread are sold on Scandella, he looked good with the Blues and the results support that, but keep in mind he had years of poor results prior to arriving in St. Louis, so it's definitely very risky to bet on his St. Louis performance being the norm.
     
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  23. Ranksu Crotch Academy ftw

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    I like(d) Scandella, but I think Mikkola would easily could play his spot if he would given chance. Still view Mikkola - Parayko would be ideal shutdown pair. I would rather keep Dunn over Scandella. But if Pietro isn't coming back I fully understand Faulk + Scandella additions, but if Pietro wants stay and no money spend. Army should be fired.
     
  24. Robb_K Registered User

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    I'd also rather keep Dunn than Scandella. I don't believe Army will have to choose between those 2 players. I think Allen and Bozak or Steen or Gunnarsson will be gone this coming season, to fit in Pietrangelo, and Faulk will go to Seattle in 2021, so Dunn will fit in under the cap.
     
  25. Ranksu Crotch Academy ftw

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    Its crazy we've to create situation where we deal with Faulk in to Seattle. Just tells how bad in first place this Faulk trade was + even worse extension without seeing him on ice with our other dmens. You would think Army had learn previous mistakes given contract too hesitate.

    I'm not sold to Scandella either. Tho he was decent with Parayko.
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2020

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