Confirmed with Link: Sanford resigns with Blues 2 year 3 mill (1.5 mill AAV)

[Stupendous Yappi]

Almost doubled his ELC salary. I was hoping to extend him closer to 1M. Cost of winning the Stanley Cup I suppose. 500k doesn't seem like much of a difference but it's going to make things that much tighter.

Leaves 13.1M in cap space to extend Fabbri, Barbashev, Sundqvist, Edmundson, and Binnington. I think the Blues will have to make a move to fit everyone.

Just as an example, the following would put us over the cap, at least according to CapFriendly.
Fabbri - 1.5M
Barbashev - 2M
Sundqvist - 3M
Edmundson - 3.5M
Binnington - 5M

That’s too high for Fabbri, give him 1M.
That’s also too high for Binnington, make it 4M.
The rest look plausible to me, but I’m less certain what Edmundson’s contract will look like.

 

[WeWentBlues]

That’s too high for Fabbri, give him 1M.
That’s also too high for Binnington, make it 4M.
The rest look plausible to me, but I’m less certain what Edmundson’s contract will look like.

Mostly just spitballing and looking at numbers. Fabbri probably would come in closer to 1M. I don't see Binnington making less than 4.35M.

 

[execwrite1]

Why is everyone saying it’s a little high? Is this a meme? He’s making $1.5mil / yr, if you can get anybody - anybody - to produce regularly on your team at $1.5, you’re extremely fortunate. That’s a tremendous deal. After the finals, I don’t know why people are still so skeptical / bitter about Sanford. Get on board already

I just wish he wouldn't fall down so often.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Makes you wonder how Lebanc only got 1 mil from San Jose.

 

[BlueDream]

Not that big of a deal but it seems high to me. I don’t know how he gets any more than Blais.

Happy to have him back.

He’s produced more offense than Blais and has more skill too.

 

[Blueston]

Makes you wonder how Lebanc only got 1 mil from San Jose.

Crazy that he would accept that. I saw the report but don't understand it.

Edit: I get that he doesn't have arbitration rights but he sure caved awfully early.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Crazy that he would accept that. I saw the report but don't understand it.

Edit: I get that he doesn't have arbitration rights but he sure caved awfully early.

I’m of the opinion that they’re basically circumventing the cap and are gonna announce a long term deal in January.

 

[Brian39]

Leaves 13.1M in cap space to extend Fabbri, Barbashev, Sundqvist, Edmundson, and Binnington. I think the Blues will have to make a move to fit everyone.

Just as an example, the following would put us over the cap, at least according to CapFriendly.
Fabbri - 1.5M
Barbashev - 2M
Sundqvist - 3M
Edmundson - 3.5M
Binnington - 5M

I don't see us having to make a move and all of those look high to me.

Fabbri is absolutely not getting $1.5 mil. His qualifying offer is a little less than $1 mil and he had a poor season. There is no way that his stock has somehow risen $500k and is equal to Sanford, who just had 20 points in 60 games (Fabbri had 6 points in 32 games and was noticeably worse off the puck than Sanford was). There is just no reason for Fabbri to get more than $ 1 mil. Especially if him getting more than that necessitates a trade of someone else.

Barby doesn't have arbitration rights. He might (maybe) get $2 mil AAV on a 2 or 3 year deal, but absolutely isn't getting that money if it also requires us to trade someone to fit it in. I think Barby is a better player than Sanford, but they were each on pace for 26 points through 80 games. Sanford has better possession and expected goal differential stats (although I think that is largely due to usage) and had arbitration rights. Those are absolutely part of the reason he got this contract and the 2 year term instead of 1 nudged up the AAV. If we hit a point where we are looking at a 1 year bargain deal for Barby or moving a guy to give him 2 years, we're going to give him the 1 year deal.

Sunny shouldn't get $3 mil. In a vacuum, he is probably worth that, but contracts aren't formed in a vacuum. Unfortunately for him, 30 point guys who contribute a boatload in other ways have a difficult time quantifying that to an arbitrator that doesn't watch any video footage of a player. Last summer, Chris Tierny and the Sharks avoided arbitration with a 2 year deal at a $2.937 AAV. He had 40 points the year before and 23 points the year before that. He also had 9 points as a rookie on their run to the Cup Final. I don't think you can make a case that Sunny's resume is better than Tierney's was. Also last summer, Adam Lowry got a 3 year deal before arbitration at $2.9 mil per year. He posted 21 points in 45 games in 2017/18 (38 point pace) and posted 29 points the year before. Brandon Tanev's 18 points through 61 games and decent playoff showing in 2017/18 earned him a $1.15 mil 1 year deal right before arbitration last summer. 25 points in 72 games in 2017/18 earned Jankowski a 2 year deal at $1.675 mil before arbitration last summer. Matt Nieto got two years at $1.975 per year after a 26 point season in 2017/18. He also had three 10 goal seasons under his belt by that point. Janmark got $2.3 mil on a 1 year deal after a 34 point season (which was preceded by a 29 point rookie year). Sunny should come in at the middle or perhaps upper end of this group, but his AAV should start with a 2.

I don't see how Eddy gets a $500k raise unless we buy a few years. I don't see why the Blues would take the risk of buying term if that also meant having to trade a guy to make the cap work. He is another guy whose strengths don't translate well to an arbitration hearing, he had a worse season than the one before, was healthy scratched twice in the Final and has never hit 70 games in his career. It wouldn't surprise me for an arbitrator to give him a pay cut rather than a raise (**arbitrator could go as low as $2.55 mil**).

I think $5 mil is the upper limit of what Binny could get. I don't think it is very likely he reaches that upper limit, but I've had lengthy discussions in other threads about that and don't want to derail this thread.

For all of those reasons, I think the Blues can easily shave the $1.2 mil total from all of those estimates that would be needed to fit everyone (plus Kyrou or MacMac) on the 23 man roster below the $81.5 mil cap.


**Edit to address my comment that an arbitrator could award a contract as low as $2.55 mil: Actually, I don't think this amount is true. I would have sworn that an arbitrator's decision could be no lower than 85% of the player's existing salary, but I can't actually find that language in the CBA. Since a player's qualifying offer expires before arbitration, I don't think the year's previous salary is any kind of limit to what an arbitrator can and can't award. If I was in fact mistake about this, Eddy's contract negotiation is going to be super interesting if he doesn't sign his QO by July 15.

 

[Brian39]

Makes you wonder how Lebanc only got 1 mil from San Jose.

Because he didn't have arbitration rights. He sure as hell wasn't getting offersheeted and SJ controled his NHL rights for another 4 years.

I still think that contract is insanely good value for SJ, but my guess is that they told his agent "look at our cap space. We can't give him more and bring back Joe Thornton. We know this is way below market and we fully expect you to throw this contract in our face next spring when we discuss a long term extension after he rides shotgun with Thornton for another year. But take it or leave it; if he wants to play in the NHL and build the resume to get paid on a longer term deal next year, he is doing it on this contract."

I would have held out longer to try and get a little bit more money, but he didn't have a whole lot of leverage (one of the reasons this Sanford contract doesn't worry me in regards to Barby).

 

[Majorityof1]

Hate the contract. I really do not think Sanford is any good whatsoever. So take it for what its worth. Its only 2 years and 1.5M , so we can bury most of it. I honestly think that is what we will be doing before it is over though. As other players step up, he will be the one to fall off the roster. He can't do anything but be a inconsistent scorer when playing with better linemates. He disappears for too long to be stapled to our best forward. If Thomas gets moved up a line, or Kyrou is NHL ready, there is no top 6 spot for him. Anyone else on the entire team is better suited for the possession style of our bottom 6, so he will be pushed out.

 

[Brian39]

Hate the contract. I really do not think Sanford is any good whatsoever. So take it for what its worth. Its only 2 years and 1.5M , so we can bury most of it. I honestly think that is what we will be doing before it is over though. As other players step up, he will be the one to fall off the roster. He can't do anything but be a inconsistent scorer when playing with better linemates. He disappears for too long to be stapled to our best forward. If Thomas gets moved up a line, or Kyrou is NHL ready, there is no top 6 spot for him. Anyone else on the entire team is better suited for the possession style of our bottom 6, so he will be pushed out.

I think it is worth pointing out that during the regular season:

He had better relCF% than Sunny, Barby, MacMac, Fabbri, Bozak, and Blais.
He had better raw CF% than everyone in that group besides Blais

He had better relFF% than Steen, Perron, Maroon, Thomas, Blais, Bozak, Sunny, Barby, MacMac and Fabbri
He had better raf FF% than everyone in that group besides Steen

He had a better expected +/- than Steen, Bozak, Perron, Blais, Sunny, Barby, Fabbri and MacMac

I don't completely disagree with a lot of your assessment about his weaknesses, but I do think that you are discounting his actual results way too much. He has flaws for sure, but at $1.5 mil they are outweighed by his strengths and none of his flaws are significant. He is certainly not the worst possession player in the bottom 6. I think his numbers were boosted a bit by usage, but these surface level possession numbers are supported by every analytical breakdown I've seen from him. He's not (and will probably never be) an overly physical guy, but he is a much better possession player than you are giving him credit for. I'd be stunned if he is out of the league during this contract and I would have felt that way even if he had gotten back to back 1 year deals worth so little that they could be fully buried. If we do reach the point you are predicting (which I don't think will happen), he would get claimed on waivers. Guys who can play reliable defense (not stellar, but reliable) in their mid-20s who can also contribute some inconsistent offense and competently fill into the 2nd and 3rd lines due to injury aren't clearing waivers when they make $1.5 mil.

 

[TheDizee]

too much

 

[LGB51]

Was hoping they would move on from Sanford, he's just invisible to often.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I've seen Army give out worse contracts (remember Steve Ott?) 1.5 Mil isn't a bad contract, Easily moved if really needed to be.

 

[TK 421]

I was hoping he'd move on but having strong depth was a huge factor in our Cup victory and he supplies that. That said I'm not a fan of this player, he doesn't consistently bring the type of forecheck that gives the visual appearance of a stylistic fit with the way Berube wants the forwards to play. He sticks out like a sore thumb to me with how noticeable that particular aspect is and when he's off he loses a lot of 50/50 battles(he's "off" lots more than I'd like. Especially for a guy that pretty much got to play with ROR for most of his minutes).

 

[CoverYour5]

Yeah I tend to agree with most of the opinions in this thread. 1.5 mil isn't breaking the bank by any means, but I think it's too much.

I was hoping Sanford would be included in a package deal of some sort. I don't think he would be missed in our lineup. Oh well, let's see what the rest of them get now.

 

[Deko]

Do people realize the AAV is slightly higher than expected because it's a two-year deal? Sanford risks losing money for 2020-21 if he has a breakthrough season already next year. On the other hand this deal will take him straight to free agency.

 

[Blueston]

Do people realize the AAV is slightly higher than expected because it's a two-year deal? Sanford risks losing money for 2020-21 if he has a breakthrough season already next year. On the other hand this deal will take him straight to free agency.

Capfriendly says he will still be RFA when this expires.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I’m of the opinion that they’re basically circumventing the cap and are gonna announce a long term deal in January.

That's not circumventing the cap.

 

[Blueston]

I don't think Sanford gets enough love on here. He's not as fast as Kyrou, as explosive as Fabbri, or as physical as Blais. But he's only 24 and was better than any of those 3 last year. He has great hands, strong hockey sense, and thinks game like an offensive player which allows him to be effective when he plays up in the lineup. But he is defensively responsible and Berube trusts him, which means he doesn't need to be sheltered. He isn't likely to ever be a star, will probably never put up more than 60 points, but he's the kind of guys good teams always seem to have. If somebody wants to pay up to trade for him he's certainly not untouchable, but I expect he will carve out nice career for himself and we won't at all regret this signing.

 

[Blueston]

That's not circumventing the cap.

It's only circumventing if they've already agreed on that next contract.

 

[ezcreepin]

As everyone else has pointed out, I'm surprised the contract is higher in aav. He wasn't bad per se, but he was inconsistent as hell. He would have a beastly string of games after getting put in the lineup, then after having 4-5 points in as many games, he was nowhere to be seen. He definitely has potential, and I think he can be a 40 point player, but he has got to even out those ebbs and flows in the season.

 

[Spektre]

Surprised that it isn't a one year deal at $1m-$1.2m range. We must be pretty bullish that he'll have a good year next season.

I had expected this to be the contract that Barbashev would have got, but that will probably have to be revised up now.

Call me crazy but I expect higher deals and more term for Barbashev and Sundqvist. They were the “4th” line but really played the traditional roles of both the 3rd and 4th line. They were matched up against top competition while playing a very heavy checking game. Both can move up the lineup, play center or wing, and kill penalties.

I’m expecting low 2 million averages for 4 years.

The Sanford deal is a good one. I hope he plays aggressively consistently and learns not to puck watch in the defensive zone.

 

[MissouriMook]

I am firmly in the group that sees this deal as a bit too much, but there is good and bad in it. On the plus side, if he merely earns this money and little more, the structure ($1.5M each year versus less in the first year and more in second) will keep his next QO lower. On the down side, having this contract done first at a slightly higher AAV than most had hoped, could cost us more money and cap on the remaining deals.

 

[izzy]

im honestly shocked people think hes overpaid at 1.8% of the cap when he was in on 8% of the goals and killed penalties.

got what hes worth

girgensens got 1.6, crouse got 1.53, now sanford gets 1.5.

thats the market for these 20ish point rfas this year