Injury Report: Samuel Morin, Torn ACL

[The Madrigal]

Couldn't outplay Nick Schultz, much less Hagg or Manning. Get a grip Hexy knows more about hockey than you do and if it wasn't for waiver eligibility he might not even sniff flyers next year.

People are just so desperate to be right about Morin. Injuries aside, he simply hasnt been good enough even at the AHL level. He was a reach at the time they picked him and nothing has changed since then. He will be lucky to end up being a good third pairing D and looks destined to be a journeyman 6th/7th.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

People are just so desperate to be right about Morin. Injuries aside, he simply hasnt been good enough even at the AHL level. He was a reach at the time they picked him and nothing has changed since then. He will be lucky to end up being a good third pairing D and looks destined to be a journeyman 6th/7th.

Morin frequently is evaluated through an optimistic filter.
Many act like Morin was "clearly" light years better than Hagg in the AHL, as if it isn't even worthy of debate. Odd, then, that when they last played together on the Phantoms in 16/17 (at the same age):
Hagg averaged more estimated ES TOI/g than Morin (15.1 vs. 13.52);
Hagg averaged more goals/g (0.12 vs. 0.04);
Primary assists were virtually identical (0.07 vs. 0.08);
Hagg averaged more points per game (0.26 vs. 0.22);
Hagg averaged more shots per game (1.55 vs. 1.49);
Hagg averaged more eG/60 (0.48 vs. 0.18);
Morin averaged more A1/60 (0.36 vs. 0.27);
Hagg was first among defensemen in +/- at +10 in 58 games; Morin 6th at 0).

This is not an argument that Hagg is any great shakes. I've always said I view him as a bottom pairing NHL defenseman. The point is that Morin was not laughably superior to Hagg on the Phantoms the season before both were competing for a regular NHL spot, despite all of the haughty scoffing. You're talking about two bottom pairing caliber defensemen; the difference of one over the other on the Flyers last season was inconsequential. Sure, I like the "idea" of Morin. 6'7", tough, excellent straight line speed (but subpar pivoting, which gets vastly overlooked), and would like him in the lineup, but he's generally overrated at the moment. Doesn't mean he can't or won't get better.

 

[The Madrigal]

Morin frequently is evaluated through an optimistic filter.
Many act like Morin was "clearly" light years better than Hagg in the AHL, as if it isn't even worthy of debate. Odd, then, that when they last played together on the Phantoms in 16/17 (at the same age):
Hagg averaged more ES TOI/g than Morin (15.1 vs. 13.52);
Hagg averaged more goals/g (0.12 vs. 0.04);
Primary assists were virtually identical (0.07 vs. 0.08);
Hagg averaged more points per game (0.26 vs. 0.22);
Hagg averaged more shots per game (1.55 vs. 1.49);
Hagg averaged more eG/60 (0.48 vs. 0.18);
Morin averaged more A1/60 (0.36 vs. 0.27);
Hagg was first among defensemen in +/- at +10 in 58 games; Morin 6th at 0).

This is not an argument that Hagg is any great shakes. I've always said I view him as a bottom pairing NHL defenseman. The point is that Morin was not laughably superior to Hagg on the Phantoms the season before both were competing for a regular NHL spot, despite all of the haughty scoffing. You're talking about two bottom pairing caliber defensemen; the difference of one over the other on the Flyers last season was inconsequential. Sure, I like the "idea" of Morin. 6'7", tough, excellent straight line speed (but subpar pivoting, which gets vastly overlooked), and would like him in the lineup, but he's generally overrated at the moment. Doesn't mean he can't or won't get better.

Well said.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

An awful lot of these petty X is better/worse arguments are really disagreements on a larger scale about player types/styles/skills.

AHL TOI is not made available to the public.

 

[The Madrigal]

The point is Morin has not clearly established himself as better than Hagg at the AHL or NHL level. Yet there is a large contingency of Flyers fans who can't stand Hagg and assume he will never get better, but love Morin and make every excuse in the book for his lack of success. It's a rather curious case, although I think it stems from fans not wanting to admit that Morin might end up being a bust considering where he was picked. A lot of people fell in love with the idea of a 6'7 defenseman with a mean streak who can skate well. I did too, but the facts are the facts and he has been a huge disappointment thus far and it's not because of Hakstol and injuries are only part of the equation.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

An awful lot of these petty X is better/worse arguments are really disagreements on a larger scale about player types/styles/skills.

AHL TOI is not made available to the public.

I agree. All I'm saying is that the often accepted premise that Morin was "clearly" superior to Hagg in the AHL in 16/17 is not so clear as many make it out to be. Maybe Morin was better, but it's a lot closer than acknowledged and there certainly is room for reasonable debate. For someone who was so "clearly" inferior, you wouldn't think Hagg would have had the advantage over Morin in so many of those stat categories. The alleged difference between the two is overblown at this stage of their careers.

As for the TOI, I will edit my post to say "estimated ES/TOI" if that helps.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I agree. All I'm saying is that the often accepted premise that Morin was "clearly" superior to Hagg in the AHL in 16/17 is not so clear as many make it out to be. Maybe Morin was better, but it's a lot closer than acknowledged and there certainly is room for reasonable debate. For someone who was so "clearly" inferior, you wouldn't think Hagg would have had the advantage over Morin in so many of those stat categories. The alleged difference between the two is overblown at this stage of their careers.

As for the TOI, I will edit my post to say "estimated ES/TOI" if that helps.

Most importantly, I understand your overarching point and I do largely agree that approaching it as if Morin can be a top 4 guy anymore is probably not realistic. I would argue that we don't have many numbers that would accurately tell you what either does and does not do well on the ice at the AHL level. It's a tough statistical argument to make for me when we have NHL data on only one of the two.

I would also tell you that's at least in part the org's doing. What worries me greatly (and always has) is that both of these guys were instructed to limit their offensive mindsets. We'll never know if either had more to give to what I would call a more modern game. In some cases, yes, I do think that's because of both the "idea of Sam Morin" and his draft status, but there's also a large contingency who has never seen anything in Hagg post-draft. It can be both, etc.

 

[hatcher]

People are just so desperate to be right about Morin. Injuries aside, he simply hasnt been good enough even at the AHL level. He was a reach at the time they picked him and nothing has changed since then. He will be lucky to end up being a good third pairing D and looks destined to be a journeyman 6th/7th.

he'll make the team and should have it if camp. He is a monster and in the two games he played yes there were mistakes but minimal and he was a force. Every team would play him now as no Islanders with a good offence could get buy him. Don't count him out dude.

 

[Lindberg]

Morin's already a spent asset so if he ends up being a physical bottom pairing defender I'm fine with that. If he sticks next year I think the Flyers could buy a few years of him for pretty cheap.

 

[Striiker]

Morin was definitely better than Hagg in the AHL, especially since he was improving every year and the gap kept increasing.

Meanwhile Hagg stagnated as a mediocre defensive player who is completely inept at passing or scoring, then went backwards, and then just got back to his normal crap self.

 

[deadhead]

Sanheim was clearly better than Morin or Hagg, and the same will be obvious with Myers this fall.

Morin "looked" better than Hagg, because he's bigger and straight line faster, but he didn't dominate the AHL, and has puck control issues that were more likely to be exposed in the NHL. Neither is a top 4 defenseman at this point in their careers, both need a lot of work.

 

[Striiker]

Just like a Ferrari "looks" better than a tricycle.

It looks better because it is better.

Literally every complaint about Morin also applies to Hagg, but is even worse.

 

[wasup]

Morin was definitely better than Hagg in the AHL, especially since he was improving every year and the gap kept increasing.

Meanwhile Hagg stagnated as a mediocre defensive player who is completely inept at passing or scoring, then went backwards, and then just got back to his normal crap self.

How many AHL games did you go to live in 15/16 16/17 to watch them both play to make this Definitely better - Clearly better statement . I would suggest non. You can like one of them better than the other and that,s fine but your definitely clearly statements i take with a grain of salt

 

[Tripod]

How many AHL games did you go to live in 15/16 16/17 to watch them both play to make this Definitely better - Clearly better statement . I would suggest non. You can like one of them better than the other and that,s fine but your definitely clearly statements i take with a grain of salt

But in fairness, up until 2016-17, Hagg was a disappointment. And if you go look back at the comments from people watching the games that season, most were saying Morin was better.

This "fictional" idea that Morin has been a disappointment is just dumb. His development was right on schedule until this year when an inferior player in Hagg made the team instead of him and then of course all the injuries after that.

Even look at the Hagg comments at the AHL level. He would get praise and lots of people on here were not seeing why that praise was even happening. Of course this is the same group who praised Belle and VDV in games all while having ZERO shot attempts.

This past year, if NONE of Hagg, Morin and Sanheim were named to the team, and just told they will fight it out thru the season, then fine. The fact that ONLY Hagg was named to the team while Morin and Sanheim were not, was just a baffling move. It still is.

 

[Striiker]

How many AHL games did you go to live in 15/16 16/17 to watch them both play to make this Definitely better - Clearly better statement . I would suggest non. You can like one of them better than the other and that,s fine but your definitely clearly statements i take with a grain of salt

None live, but I live like 15 minutes from the arena so I get every home game on TV and there’s usually streams online for away games.

 

[Lindberg]

Samuel Morin - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Kinda crazy how little his minor salary is compared to the NHL. If that isn't enough justification for a player to get to the NHL I don't know what is.

 

[Adtar02]

Most importantly, I understand your overarching point and I do largely agree that approaching it as if Morin can be a top 4 guy anymore is probably not realistic. I would argue that we don't have many numbers that would accurately tell you what either does and does not do well on the ice at the AHL level. It's a tough statistical argument to make for me when we have NHL data on only one of the two.

I would also tell you that's at least in part the org's doing. What worries me greatly (and always has) is that both of these guys were instructed to limit their offensive mindsets. We'll never know if either had more to give to what I would call a more modern game. In some cases, yes, I do think that's because of both the "idea of Sam Morin" and his draft status, but there's also a large contingency who has never seen anything in Hagg post-draft. It can be both, etc.

What I struggle with is: Back when Berube was coaching He tried to keep morin up in stead of him heading back to the Junior team. Ron blocked it. So he almost made the team than as one of the better defenders. then It be came he's being sent AHL to refine his game, but we had a log jam of crap up.

Same this past year crap up kept good young prospects from playing through growing pains. Then Morin got the injury bug bad, for relatively the first time in his career.

What annoys me is that people forget that Hagg came over and played AHL before Morin. So the same age Hagg had another year of playing AHL. I do think in camp morin looked better. But Hak was convinced he needed to move Ghost back to the LD from the right and Hagg could play both sides. I think Hak didnt want too many young guys playing so he tried to set up pair to limit the amount that could be up. Hagg plays a game like Mac which Hak seems to love. He sees it as safe. But thats not the NHL anymore. Conceding your blue line is a bad strategy.

I think Morin could have help the team more this year than hagg based on what he looks to be. A big body defenceman that plays heavy and PKs well. Which we needed better PKers. when two of your defense man dont do that IE ghost and Sanhiem. you need the ones who to be on there game.

I thought Sanhiem would be sent back to work on playing the body more and Morin would stay to learn the Speed of the NHL. its a shame he got hurt so bad this year.

 

[renberg]

Sam has be known to have some skating issues. That's pretty typical for a young guy at his age. He's not bad but its an area that needs improvement and has been coming along. This injury is a set back in that area and will take some time to overcome.
The other major issue with Sam has been his size. At 6'7" or more, he has had to learn how to use that to an advantage. Over the last three seasons, he has shown that he is doing just that.
IMO, he was NHL ready last season. Most likely, Hex and Hak didn't want to break in two rookies on the blue line going right out of camp. Hagg got the nod with Morin being a call up later on. The plan would have worked except that Morin developed the groin issue (which he may have had coming into camp?).
Right now the Flyers have a full compliment of good young defensemen-Gostisbehere; Provorov; Sanheim; Hagg; Morin and Myers. Where they will eventually end up as in #1 through 6 remains to be seen. Some will develop better than others. Aside from Provy being on the first pairing, I don't take anyone for where they will be in time. There might even be an outlier that fires his way onto the squad and pushes one of these six players off of the roster. I'm not going to rag about who was favored or put down in their development; just going to go with the flow that it will be the best blue line in the league. These guys are good-real good. There's not a GM in the league who wouldn't trade off their entire defense for what the Flyers have.

 

[deadhead]

I think there's a good shot Friedman will be pushing for a job by the end of next season, he improved as the season went along, has a solid college pedigree, and combines speed with enough size to be able to play defense. He was stuck with Brennan, so he certainly learned how to cover for his partner!

Hogberg is probably 3 years away, another year in the SHL and at least one season in the AHL.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I've been high on Friedman for a while and was surprised at how slow of a start he had to his AHL career. To his credit, though, it seems like he adjusted and rounded into form. I'm not sure he'll ever play with the Flyers, but, as I've said before, I could see him as a Seidenberg type who ends up making an NHL career for himself elsewhere.

 

[renberg]

I don’t get the love for Friedman. Exactly what skills does he possess that are going to get him to the NHL? Speed? Shot? Physicality? Hockey sense? I just don’t see anything that he has that will push him ahead of anyone currently on the Flyers roster. Even when he was at BG, he was good but not a guy that pushed the game for the team.

 

[deadhead]

He's got good speed, and a compact body that will allow him to play physical (though not to move people, but hold his own in the corners and along the boards).

Friedman lacks any "special" quality that would allow him to get by on talent while he learns the game, which is why he'll need at least 2 AHL seasons and maybe 3, but he has enough raw talent that he could be an effective D-man once he understands how to play the game.

Most defensemen aren't uber talents, they're guys with good instincts and enough talent that they develop into reliable players after a few AHL seasons.

Gudas had 3 AHL seasons.

Vegas is a good example:
Engelland: 2 1/2 ECHL, 4 1/2 AHL seasons, didn't start until he was 28 (a bit extreme!)
McNabb: 3 AHL seasons, started at 23
Merrill: 3 college, 1/2 AHL, started at 21
Miller: 2 AHL seasons, started at 23
Sbisa: #19 pick, started at 18
Schmidt: 3 yr college, 2 years between AHL/NHL, started at 24
Theordore: #26, 2 years between AHL/NHL, started at 22

Washington:
Carlson: #27, 1 year AHL, started at 20
Djoos: 3 yr SHL, 2 yr AHL, started at 23
Jerabek: Czech league, started at 26
Kempny: Czech league, 1 yr KHL, started at 26
Niskanen: #28, 2 yr college, started at 21
Orlov: 2 yr KHL, started at 20, between AHL/NHL, then back starting at 22
Orpik: 3 yr, college, 2 yr AHL, started at 23

SSS, but it gives you a flavor of player development, a few break in early but a lot of defenseman don't become starters until 22-24 and then need a couple years to get comfortable.
So even if Morin only plays spot duty as #7 towards the end of the year, at 24 in 2019-20, he won't be exceptionally old.
Friedman only turns 23 in December, 3 yr college, 2 yr AHL is not unusual.

 

[Tripod]

Friedman will be the oldest of the next Dmen....slow cooked and then time will tell if he can replace someone, or get moved to re-coup a pick, or part of another package.

We need some AHL guys that can come up when injuries occur and can be that guy for a bit.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

Let the "Mattias Samuelsson at 19" speculation begin....

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I don’t get the love for Friedman. Exactly what skills does he possess that are going to get him to the NHL? Speed? Shot? Physicality? Hockey sense? I just don’t see anything that he has that will push him ahead of anyone currently on the Flyers roster. Even when he was at BG, he was good but not a guy that pushed the game for the team.

Friedman is above average at a lot of things. He has above average mobility, an above average shot, he isn't tall but he is sturdily built and fairly physical for his size, he moves the puck pretty well. RH shot. I never said he would push ahead of anyone on the current Flyers roster, which is why I compared him to Seidenberg in that I could see him as an overlooked young player who carves out a solid but unspectacular NHL career for other organizations.