Player Discussion Sam Reinhart: Part III

[Aladyyn]

Steady improvement. Carries the team when ROR and Reinhart are busy making excuses. Yeah, he has.

Carries the team to last place amirite?

 

[valet]

Other teams haven’t been offering bridges except for Kucherov. Reinhart I would bridge— potentially keep him longer if he turns into that 2C we want. Keep him cheap if he stalls.

and there's a reason that teams aren't offering bridges to players like sam: they can lock them up with a medium length contract of 4-5 years for a very reasonable cap hit that lasts well into their prime

the 'prove it' argument doesn't really hold water. he's already proven he's worth between 4-5 mil. so what's the advantage of paying for 2 years at 4 when you could get him for 4-5 years at 5? is paying him 6-7 aav in 2 years worth the 1mil aav you save over 2 years?

the math says no

 

[Aladyyn]

What are we using the cap space for in the next 2 seasons? Anyone who wants a bridge please answer this question thank you.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Only disheartening part of this is how you use one example and pretend it makes the statement false. Wooo

Listen, Reinhart showed in the second half of last season he can be a decent contributor. However, he has never shown he can be reliable. And ‘his game’ isn’t one that’s going to do anything to force another team to plan around. He’s a great complimentary piece, but nothing more.

And because of this, he is best suited for a bridge.

Stats people who don’t understand the flaws of the stats can obsess all they want, but moneyball isn’t a simple equation in hockey.

When Reinhart claims a role on this team he can earn big bucks and term. Until then... what is he? Just a good young player, but nothing to get too excited about or worried about locking ups

There's more than one example in each of the areas I mentioned.

Maybe we should focus on what he can do. He plays a similar game to a HoF winger who scored 600 goals. And Reinhart is much more talented than Ciccarelli ever was.

Bridge him, and we won't be able to afford his next contract.

 

[Vito_81]

There's more than one example in each of the areas I mentioned.

Maybe we should focus on what he can do. He plays a similar game to a HoF winger who scored 600 goals. And Reinhart is much more talented than Ciccarelli ever was.

Bridge him, and we won't be able to afford his next contract.

Well 600 career goals is absolutely not going to happen, but your final point is a good one

A bridge deal WILL cost us in the end. No doubt about it.

 

[Icicle]

It’s

Well 600 career goals is absolutely not going to happen, but your final point is a good one

A bridge deal WILL cost us in the end. No doubt about it.

An extra 1-2 mil as a cost for 3-4 more years of team control if he bridges into a longer term contract.

Everyone lambasts Okposo and Moulson contracts— but wants to setup Reinhart for that same situation?

 

[Fezzy126]

So what are Reinhart's weaknesses? He's not a high end skater and he has a weak shot. Anything else?

I don't have a problem with Reinhart's overall skating ability, his top end speed and edgework appear to be more than adequate. For me his weaknesses are:

• Short area quickness/first step - this is particularly noticeable when he receives a breakout pass while at a stand still, or 50/50 pucks against quicker players.
• Balance - still needs to be stronger on his skates, still capable of growth in this area
• Could be better at holding onto the puck by using his body to wall off defenders, still capable of growth in this area
• Aggressiveness/Alpha mentality - would like to see him take control of the game more often. this started happening with more regularity in the second half last year and the results showed.

I don't view his shot as a weakness, he puts plenty of zip on it and places it well. He'll never blow a one-timer past an unscreened goalie from the point a la Laine, but he's more than fine.

Strengths far outweigh his weaknesses:

• Anticipation
• Passing (both accuracy and touch)
• Shot accuracy and release
• Strength on his stick, on the puck
• Net front instincts & desire to get to the dirty areas
• Boardwork
• Defensive positioning

 

[valet]

It’s

An extra 1-2 mil as a cost for 3-4 more years of team control if he bridges into a longer term contract.

Everyone lambasts Okposo and Moulson contracts— but wants to setup Reinhart for that same situation?

it's not even close to the same situation. KO was a UFA and had already finished his 2nd deal at the age of 28, which was 2.8x5 with the islanders. moulson was in his year 31 season when he signed after being traded here, well eligible for ufa status

in KO's case, if LI signs him to a bridge they're on the hook for a contract where the player just put up a ppg...instead they got to pay him 2.8 for all 5 years for that production

 

[brian_griffin]

Nice post Fezzy. Reinhart doesn't strike me as a "alpha type" player, rather one who's comfortable - and even excels - in a role of doing what he does and elevating / helping the people around him. i.e., a Shepherder vs. a Charge the Hill kind of guy. Effective high-performing groups / teams need both.

As to the Ciccarelli comparisons: A 50 goal season in Ciccarelli's era are 30-goal seasons today.

Don't shy away from locking him up, the value is there.

 

[joshjull]

Here's a curve. Know who Reinhart is? Dino Ciccarelli with better passing skills and without the criminal offenses.

So, he's going to flank Eichel or Mittelstadt, play solid defense, tilt the ice in the Sabres favor, make everyone he plays with better, and score 30 goals a season?

Does anyone else fathom the depths of this travesty?

You can't be Ciccarelli without the criminal offenses though.

 

[cybresabre]

I have it on good authority that Sam once returned a library book late.

 

[sabrebuild]

It’s

An extra 1-2 mil as a cost for 3-4 more years of team control if he bridges into a longer term contract.

Everyone lambasts Okposo and Moulson contracts— but wants to setup Reinhart for that same situation?

No, getting him to agree to a long term deal now does the opposite. You pay a young improving less than ufa price now. Yes you will pay more than a bridge, but you presumably will pay more in two or three years. Plus younare paying for his prime years, before decline. And then you can see about a third deal when he’s 28-29 if you feel like he is a good investment or he wants to stay on a good team. Or you let him walk and be someone else’s moulson or okposo.

Your way saves you cap for a couple years, when the team has no need for that cap. And then you will need to pay him based on the two years of his prime and a more talented team. Not to mention signing mitts.

Game it out. You do the two year deal. You saved money, but we know it wont matter in year one, but maybe it helped year two. Now Reinhart is 24-25. Presumably your team has improved and you need to sign him. You are looking at a 6-8 year deal at 7 million bucks. Which takes him to age 30-33. Which is the concern with the bad ufa deal. So no, skipping a bridge deal is not setting the team up for a bad contract. Its setting them up for locking down a promising players best years, in which reasonably worst case scenario is only a small overpayment the first year or two. Reasonable best case scenario? You might have one of the best contracts in the league.

 

[sabrebuild]

it's not even close to the same situation. KO was a UFA and had already finished his 2nd deal at the age of 28, which was 2.8x5 with the islanders. moulson was in his year 31 season when he signed after being traded here, well eligible for ufa status

in KO's case, if LI signs him to a bridge they're on the hook for a contract where the player just put up a ppg...instead they got to pay him 2.8 for all 5 years for that production

All the likes

 

[sabrebuild]

I don't have a problem with Reinhart's overall skating ability, his top end speed and edgework appear to be more than adequate. For me his weaknesses are:

• Short area quickness/first step - this is particularly noticeable when he receives a breakout pass while at a stand still, or 50/50 pucks against quicker players.
• Balance - still needs to be stronger on his skates, still capable of growth in this area
• Could be better at holding onto the puck by using his body to wall off defenders, still capable of growth in this area
• Aggressiveness/Alpha mentality - would like to see him take control of the game more often. this started happening with more regularity in the second half last year and the results showed.

I don't view his shot as a weakness, he puts plenty of zip on it and places it well. He'll never blow a one-timer past an unscreened goalie from the point a la Laine, but he's more than fine.

Strengths far outweigh his weaknesses:

• Anticipation
• Passing (both accuracy and touch)
• Shot accuracy and release
• Strength on his stick, on the puck
• Net front instincts & desire to get to the dirty areas
• Boardwork
• Defensive positioning

Agree with all of this, particularly the aggressive mentality. He needs enough of that in his game to make defenders know he is capable to give him more space to use his preferred skill set.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Tough call on what to do with Reinhart regarding contract. I think for him to take 8 years he only begins to get interested at $6.5M AAV and that's risky considering the numbers he put up to deserve that kind of money were 41 games when the Sabres were out of the playoff picture.

Unless we become legit contenders I don't see Reinhart wanting to be here a long time, he's a real West Coast guy and his hometown team is in a rebuilding mode like we are, by the time UFA is in sight the Canucks will be a good team again most likely.

Now that Tavares has bolted the Islanders that should end the 'top players stay with the teams that drafted them' mantra.

 

[Aladyyn]

It's crazy to me that Reinhart is only worth 6M if he performs better than Eichel.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

so do you have any comparables that show players of sam's overall caliber getting contracts like that? there's already a lot of evidence posted in the thread to the contrary, that he'll get a little bit more money over a 4-5 year term

as a personal aside i think it would be insane to sign sam to only a 2 year deal. when he's a perennial 60pt plus possession monster in 2 years you'd be wishing we had spent a little bit more for a longer term, cause those kinds of players end up costing teams 8mil like the couture deal

Paying for something that hasn't happened is how you end up in cap trouble

 

[CatsforReinhart]

It's crazy to me that Reinhart is only worth 6M if he performs better than Eichel.

This statement doesn't make sense and Reinhart will never perform better than Reinhart.

 

[Icicle]

It's crazy to me that Reinhart is only worth 6M if he performs better than Eichel.

I have a hard time believing you actually watch games.

 

[sabremike]

It’s

An extra 1-2 mil as a cost for 3-4 more years of team control if he bridges into a longer term contract.

Everyone lambasts Okposo and Moulson contracts— but wants to setup Reinhart for that same situation?

Reinhart is much younger and better than both of those guys (and I'll throw in the friendly reminder that Okposo was actually quite good until he, you know, almost died.).

 

[Icicle]

Reinhart is much younger and better than both of those guys (and I'll throw in the friendly reminder that Okposo was actually quite good until he, you know, almost died.).

I acknowledged that... read again

 

[Jim Bob]

Paying for something that hasn't happened is how you end up in cap trouble

Not locking core guys up to long term deals that see them underpaid on the back end is another way to end up in cap trouble.

I would much prefer them giving long term deals to the Reinharts of the world than the Okposos of the world.

 

[BuzzKillington90]

I hope Botterill signs Sam for 8x5.5 or 6 so that all the Botterill can do no wrong posters that want Reinhart on a bridge are stuck hating Botterill for what he did or forced to love it to keep the act up.

Honestly I'm hoping for either 8x9 or 4x4.

Then the Botterill sucks crowd is confused becaused its 8 years! but, 9 mil a year?!

Or the Botterill doesn't suck crowd is confundled ... it's a BRIDGE DEAL!!!! but at the end of it he's a UFA? TF!!!

At this point watching the world burn is less taxing then having a conversation with people.

 

[Jim Bob]

Honestly I'm hoping for either 8x9 or 4x4.

Then the Botterill sucks crowd is confused becaused its 8 years! but, 9 mil a year?!

Or the Botterill doesn't suck crowd is confundled ... it's a BRIDGE DEAL!!!! but at the end of it he's a UFA? TF!!!

At this point watching the world burn is less taxing then having a conversation with people.

The other fun path would be Reinhart signing his QO and filing for arbitration next summer after having a breakout 2018-19 season.

 

[BuzzKillington90]

The other fun path would be Reinhart signing his QO and filing for arbitration next summer after having a breakout 2018-19 season.

BURN BURRRRRN BURRRRRRRRRRRRRN

EVERYTHING BURNS!!!!