Player Discussion Sam Reinhart - Is he the real deal?

[Jame]

So the Sabres should have offered him a 6.5x6 deal after coming off a 42, 47, and 50 point season?

Yes.

 

[jc17]

As the table lays out... he gets the best of both worlds... he gets the same amount of money over 6 years, with the 'prove it' factor creating an even bigger potential windfall as a UFA at 28 years old.

Oh good.

So you're saying Botterill made a smart move by not allowing Sam to become a UFA at 28 years old, coming off of very productive seasons? That by spending an additional $1.5M for 4 years, we get Sam until he's 32, instead of possibly losing him at 28, or being forced to overpay him in a contract as he's exiting his prime?

 

[Jame]

Oh good.

So you're saying Botterill made a smart move by not allowing Sam to become a UFA at 28 years old, coming off of very productive seasons? That by spending an additional $1.5M for 4 years, we get Sam until he's 32, instead of possibly losing him at 28, or being forced to overpay him in a contract as he's exiting his prime?

If it's your preference to gain no cap advantage in rebuild years, and then waste cap space in years 5-8 of Reinhart/Eichel career, and year 3-6 of Dahlin.... then, yes.... You and Botterill must think alike....

 

[dasaybz]

Yes.

You would have been the first one complaining about how dumb Botts is for that contract.

 

[Jame]

You would have been the first one complaining about how dumb Botts is for that contract.

I argued for that contract at the time.

 

[dasaybz]

I argued for that contract at the time.

I take it back then hahah.

 

[jc17]

If it's your preference to gain no cap advantage in rebuild years, and then waste cap space in years 5-8 of Reinhart/Eichel career, and year 3-6 of Dahlin.... then, yes.... You and Botterill must think alike....

Saving $1.5M would be nice.

But again, you act like there's absolutely no reason to structure the contract any differently. That it's just so absurd and unreasonable to do anything different than what you think.

Cup windows aren't so cut and dry. Maybe having Sam for an additional few years will give us a better shot at the cup, than an extra 1.5M during 4 years.

If you can't acknowledge that there's some reason to doing that, it just further proves that actual discussion is not a priority, but rather pontification

 

[Jame]

Saving $1.5M would be nice.

But again, you act like there's absolutely no reason to structure the contract any differently. That it's just so absurd and unreasonable to do anything different than what you think.

Cup windows aren't so cut and dry. Maybe having Sam for an additional few years will give us a better shot at the cup, than an extra 1.5M during 4 years.

If you can't acknowledge that there's some reason to doing that, it just further proves that actual discussion is not a priority, but rather pontification

At the time I laid out Mark Schiefele's development curve, relative to Reinhart (reminder: they are very similar). I stated that curve would likely produce a 60 point season this year. I pointed to WPG investing in Schiefele to the tune of 8 yrs / 6.125 per. And that 6.125 per was 8.4% of the cap at the time. 8.4% of the 79 million cap when Reinhart negotiations were going on, would be 6.636 per... I also noted that because the timing of the Scheifele contract was after his 60 point season, one could argue that Buffalo might want to protect themselves by only going 6 years.

The reason for doing what Botts did is a combination of all his incompetencies... player evaluation failures, cap management failures, etc

 

[jc17]

At the time I laid out Mark Schiefele's development curve, relative to Reinhart (reminder: they are very similar). I stated that curve would likely produce a 60 point season this year. I pointed to WPG investing in Schiefele to the tune of 8 yrs / 6.125 per. And that 6.125 per was 8.4% of the cap at the time. 8.4% of the 79 million cap when Reinhart negotiations were going on, would be 6.636 per... I also noted that because the timing of the Scheifele contract was after his 60 point season, one could argue that Buffalo might want to protect themselves by only going 6 years.

The reason for doing what Botts did is a combination of all his incompetencies... player evaluation failures, cap management failures, etc

I remember the comparison.

It doesn't change the fact that the trade-off is saving 1.5 during "prime years" vs getting Reinhart for a few extra years at a "reasonable" AAV.

To you, the decision is clear, and that's fine. You value an extra 1-2% of cap space in what should be competitive years. It makes sense. But if you can't see why extra years of reinhart would also be attractive, that's just being close-minded.

 

[Jame]

I remember the comparison.

It doesn't change the fact that the trade-off is saving 1.5 during "prime years" vs getting Reinhart for a few extra years at a "reasonable" AAV.

To you, the decision is clear, and that's fine. You value and extra 1-2% of cap space. But if you can't see why extra years of reinhart would also be attractive, that's just being close-minded.

I think there's also an element of Reinhart "betting on himself" planning to get to the 7-8 per range measured against the growth we're seeing right now in contracts... the reality is that Reinhart could push for a 9 per contract now (See Skinner 60+ scorer).

Even so that 1.5-2.5 in savings is enormous in a world where you're going to have Eichel, Skinner, Dahlin, and Reinhart ALL on 8.0 - 10.0 contracts.

 

[Aladyyn]

Why in the world would Botterill care about what happens in 6 years?

 

[Montag DP]

Why in the world would Botterill care about what happens in 6 years?

Ha, I get it. Good one.

 

[jc17]

I think there's also an element of Reinhart "betting on himself" planning to get to the 7-8 per range measured against the growth we're seeing right now in contracts... the reality is that Reinhart could push for a 9 per contract now (See Skinner 60+ scorer).

Even so that 1.5-2.5 in savings is enormous in a world where you're going to have Eichel, Skinner, Dahlin, and Reinhart ALL on 8.0 - 10.0 contracts.

Yeah it's definitely going to be tight. They're going to need contributions from some guys on ELCs.

I think contracts for guys like Mittelstadt, Pilut, Nylander, olofsso, asplund are going to be the biggest wildcards

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I hope we can get him for $8M...

 

[slip]

Even so that 1.5-2.5 in savings is enormous in a world where you're going to have Eichel, Skinner, Dahlin, and Reinhart ALL on 8.0 - 10.0 contracts.

That's alotta coin for several players who may very well have zero games playoff experience between them by the time the ink dries on Dahlin's next contract.

 

[Aladyyn]

What if the only reason they refuse to play Sam at center is fear that he'll outperform Eichel and command a Matthews level contract?

 

[Jame]

I hope we can get him for $8M...

Best case scenario in my opinion, IF we can get it done July 1st a year before he becomes RFA....

Year	Status	Salary
1	RFA	6.5
2	RFA	6.5
3	UFA	9
4	UFA	9
5	UFA	9
6	UFA	9
7	UFA	9
8	UFA	9
	CAP	8.375

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[OkimLom]

Yeah it's definitely going to be tight. They're going to need contributions from some guys on ELCs.

I think contracts for guys like Mittelstadt, Pilut, Nylander, olofsso, asplund are going to be the biggest wildcards

Mittelstadt - After this year his ELC is expired. Glad we were able to smoke 2 years (possibly 3 years if he plans to punt this year as well) off that playing noncompetitive hockey . Would've been nice to not have to do that for a 1st round talent.

Pilut - After this year his ELC is expired. He won't be getting that much of a raise, and I don't see him signing a long deal. I could see a 2 year deal after.

Nylander - Got 2 years left on his ELC, I don't think we see the end of that contract. I think he gets traded.

Olofsson - After this year his ELC is expired. Same boat as Pilut.

Tage - I'm surprised you didn't mention him. His ELC expires at the end of this year. Will be interesting to see how they handle him.

We had a lot of talent on nice deals, it would've been nice to be competitive to take advantage of them while we could. Right now, it just looks like a wasted years.

 

[Chainshot]

What if the only reason they refuse to play Sam at center is fear that he'll outperform Eichel and command a Matthews level contract?

Could be. He could wind up with say... RoR comps if he fully rounds out in the position and then it's a % question. What was RoR's % of cap when he signed his deal -- 10.27? 10.27% is 8.42M AAV on today's cap.

 

[Tatanka]

Wouldn’t he have to play center first?

 

[GOALOFSSON]

He should've been offering 6 years / 6.5 per.... and Reinhart would've been locked in through his prime at a bargain....

Let's say the bridge deal was more appealing to Reinhart because he felt they could get to 8 per after the bridge. In that case a 6 year / 6.5 deal gets him to the same place. And then he has the opportunity to earn significantly more as a free agent at 28 years old.....

The reality is Botts incompetence forced Reinhart to bet on himself, because Botts was too stupid to place the bet himself.

Year	Age	Salary 1	Salary 2
1	23	3.85	6.5
2	24	3.85	6.5
3	25	8	6.5
4	26	8	6.5
5	27	8	6.5
6	28	8	6.5
	6 year gross	39.7	39
7	29	8	UFA
8	30	8
9	31	8
10	32	8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Um, I'd rather have him at 8 through 32 than get rid of him at 28.

 

[Strexvale]

Thought this'd be a good thing to have as a reference here.

 

[sandybridge]

What if the only reason they refuse to play Sam at center is fear that he'll outperform Eichel and command a Matthews level contract?

Somehow I don't see Rainhart ever getting close to 40 goals (if you are talking Matthews level money); not that type of player. I would be ecstatic if he ended his career having mostly 60 pt seasons.

 

[Buffaloed]

Realdealyness is inversely proportional to the size of the contract the player is seeking.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Somehow I don't see Rainhart ever getting close to 40 goals (if you are talking Matthews level money); not that type of player. I would be ecstatic if he ended his career having mostly 60 pt seasons.

It could easily happen. Last season his PP goals took a hit. He can easily top 30 goals next year.