Salary cap

rhef3

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Jul 28, 2016
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I haven't been able to read into detail about how much cap we will have this upcoming season, Can anyone tell us a rough guess on how much kenny will have to play with in free agency ?

I know he has to sign a backup goaltender, do you see him making any other signings or will this mostly be In house fill-in's for 18-19 ?
 

lilidk

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Mar 4, 2008
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Kenny was spying on Switzerland, I believe. Hope he will trade some regulars for picks and sign some good Switzerland player .
 

ShelbyZ

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Depending on how much the upper limit increases (reportly to $78-82M), they'll have $21.1-25.1M open if they don't LTIR Franzen, and $25-29M if they do put him on LTIR. What's left for free agents is up in the air.

It's probably a good bet that RFA's Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Frk are re-signed. That'll likely take up more than half of the open space.

Other factors:
-They probably leave around $2M open/flexible for Rasmussen and Svechnikov to start on the opening roster.
-Do they trade AA, re-sign him, or does he hold out again?
-Do they trade/waive/bury Ouellet? If so, that opens another $1.025 - 1.25M
-It's been widely speculated that they want to re-sign Green. If he goes elsewhere, will they sign another UFA dman?

I know he has to sign a backup goaltender, do you see him making any other signings or will this mostly be In house fill-in's for 18-19 ?

For the NHL club, I want to say no, but can't. A lot of people said no last Spring/Summer and he ended up bringing in Daley. Then again, his approach has apparently now shifted from "jump right back into the playoffs" to "build to make the playoffs in 2/3 seasons", so who knows.

Along with a #2 goalie, I see him bringing back Green or replacing him with someone slightly cheaper. If he has the room (both roster and cap), I can also see him making a cheap 1yr Vanek like signing up front (maybe for Grabner or actually Vanek himself) that can be offloaded at the deadline for some assets (ok maybe not Vanek or Grabner then).

Regardless, he will certainly make other signings. They just likely won't be meant to directly impact the NHL club:

-Just about all of GR's veteran forwards are set to become UFA's (Tangradi, Lorito, Puempel, Street, Elson, Ford (under contract to GR)), and so far only Ehn, Pope and Smith are set to join GR as forwards next season. That likely means Holland signs 2/3 AHL veteran forwards for organizational depth. Although they can also leverage their logjam of AHL veteran dmen (Lashoff, McIlrath, Russo) to get a castoff forward in a trade (ala Sproul for Puempel).
-Coreau, McCollum and likely Machovsky are all free agents, and Fulcher is the only prospect goalie coming into the pro's next season. They'll likely re-sign one of McCollum or Coreau and sign a short term stop gap #3/4 goalie for organization depth as well.
 

PelagicJoe

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Mar 20, 2012
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Frk and Bertuzzi will be lucky to get 1 to 1.5 million each. The only RFA getting big bucks will be Larkin. Mantha will probably get a 3 million bridge deal.
Holland will sign a defenseman in the offseason be it Green or some get past his prime to take Green's spot. I don't see him putting a kid in that spot, but I could be wrong. Maybe Hronek, Cholo, or Saarjavi (probably spelled that wrong but oh well) pull a Dylan Larkin and tear it up in training camp. That would be nice.
I am ready for the draft and then July 1st.
 
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Henkka

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My estimation is ~7.5M ballpark in capspace after all RFA re-signings, if using 100% Franzen LTIR usage. This includes all existing contracts.
 

ShelbyZ

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Frk and Bertuzzi will be lucky to get 1 to 1.5 million each. The only RFA getting big bucks will be Larkin. Mantha will probably get a 3 million bridge deal.
Holland will sign a defenseman in the offseason be it Green or some get past his prime to take Green's spot. I don't see him putting a kid in that spot, but I could be wrong. Maybe Hronek, Cholo, or Saarjavi (probably spelled that wrong but oh well) pull a Dylan Larkin and tear it up in training camp. That would be nice.
I am ready for the draft and then July 1st.

It sounds like the team has already written Ouellet off of next years 23 man roster, so they'll have a spot open for one of the young guys regardless of whether or not they re-sign Green or bring in another UFA.
 

PelagicJoe

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It sounds like the team has already written Ouellet off of next years 23 man roster, so they'll have a spot open for one of the young guys regardless of whether or not they re-sign Green or bring in another UFA.

So both Green's and XO's spots will be open. I'm 50/50 om Green coming back. Holland would do it, but I am not sure Green wants to stay on a team this bad. XO is basically a dime a dozen #5 or #6 dman. Easily replaced. Only question mark is who gets those two spots.
Who are the UFA defenders this year?
 

Henkka

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Who are the UFA defenders this year?

With last season value:

DET - 32y RhD Mike Green 6.0M
WPG - 33y LhD Tobias Enström 5.75M (Jets won't have cap space to re-sign)
VGK - 33y LhD Jason Garrison 4.6M
CBJ - 31y LhD Jack Johnson 4.35M
NSH - 32y LhD Alexei Emelin 4.1M
ANA - 36y RhD Kevin Bieksa 4.0M
WSH - 28y RhD John Carlson 4.0M (definitely best)
BUF - 33y LhD Josh Gorges 3.9M
DAL - 35y LhD Dan Hamhuis 3.75M
EDM - 31y RhD Mark Fayne 3.6M
VGK - 28y LhD Luca Sbisa 3.6M
NYI - 27y LhD Calvin De Haan 3.3M
VGK - 33y LhD Clayton Stoner 3.25M
NYI - 29y LhD Thomas Hickey 2.2M
CBJ - 29y LhD Ian Cole 2.1M
TBL - 27y RhD Andrej Sustr 1.95M
NJD - 27y LhD John Moore 1.67M
BOS - Nick Holden 1.65M
CGY - Dalton Prout 1.57M

With the 7.5M in estimated cap space, I'd throw 7 years 7.5M per for Carlson.

Trade Mike Green's negotiating rights to Capitals to get Carlson's negotiation rights. :)
 
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Henkka

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Last 3-season points per game (+150 games):

1. Erik Karlsson 0.93
2. Brent Burns 0.89
3. Kris Letang 0.80
4. Victor Hedman 0.78
5. John Klingberg 0.73
6. Roman Josi 0.71
7. John Carlson 0.69
8. PK Subban 0.69
9. Shayne Gostisbehere 0.69
10. Tyson Barrie 0.65
11. Dustin Byfuglien 0.65
12. Torey Krug 0.65
13. Drew Doughty 0.63
14. Kevin Shattenkirk 0.62
15. Shea Weber 0.60
16. Alex PIetrangelo 0.60
17. Ryan Suter 0.59
18. Keith Yandle 0.59
19. Oliver Ekman-Larsson 0.58
20. Duncan Keith 0.56
 

ShelbyZ

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So both Green's and XO's spots will be open. I'm 50/50 om Green coming back. Holland would do it, but I am not sure Green wants to stay on a team this bad. XO is basically a dime a dozen #5 or #6 dman. Easily replaced. Only question mark is who gets those two spots.
Who are the UFA defenders this year?

That's being nice. XO pretty much never went higher than #7 on the depth chart, and for the most part, sat in the press box when every other dman was healthy. I doubt they would give that kind of spare part role to a young guy. The exception being maybe Sulak, since he's already 24YO. But if Cholowski, Hicketts or Hronek get a spot on the 23 man roster, they probably have a regular spot in the top 6. The real question mark would be: If they bring in a UFA Dman that has a regular role/re-sign Green and also promote a young D, who slides down the depth chart to give the young D more of a regular role. The UFA/Green, Ericsson, Daley and DeKeyser are probably locks to play every game when healthy. Does Jensen simply go to the press box? Does Kronwall get that Fetisov like part time "reduced role"? Do they dress 7 D on a regular basis?

With last season value:

DET - 32y RhD Mike Green 6.0M
WPG - 33y LhD Tobias Enström 5.75M (Jets won't have cap space to re-sign)
VGK - 33y LhD Jason Garrison 4.6M
CBJ - 31y LhD Jack Johnson 4.35M
NSH - 32y LhD Alexei Emelin 4.1M
ANA - 36y RhD Kevin Bieksa 4.0M
WSH - 28y RhD John Carlson 4.0M (definitely best)
BUF - 33y LhD Josh Gorges 3.9M
DAL - 35y LhD Dan Hamhuis 3.75M
EDM - 31y RhD Mark Fayne 3.6M
VGK - 28y LhD Luca Sbisa 3.6M
NYI - 27y LhD Calvin De Haan 3.3M
VGK - 33y LhD Clayton Stoner 3.25M
NYI - 29y LhD Thomas Hickey 2.2M
CBJ - 29y LhD Ian Cole 2.1M
TBL - 27y RhD Andrej Sustr 1.95M
NJD - 27y LhD John Moore 1.67M
BOS - Nick Holden 1.65M
CGY - Dalton Prout 1.57M

With the 7.5M in estimated cap space, I'd throw 7 years 7.5M per for Carlson.

Trade Mike Green's negotiating rights to Capitals to get Carlson's negotiation rights. :)

I can see Holland sending termed offers to Carlson and De Haan, and shorter term offers to guys like Green, Enstrom, Johhson and Hamhuis.

For some reason, Enstrom seems to make sense for Holland. He's an older, smallish and oft injured Swede.
 

Mister Ed

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Dec 21, 2008
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Here's a great Excel sheet to predict the top UFA and RFA and for how much they will sign.

In terms of accuracy, the cap hit model is definitely improved. When you know the actual length, the mean average error (mean average percent error) of the 2017 FA class by position is: F: 305K (21%) D: 278K (19%) G: 530K (37%)

According to this :

Dylan LarkinFRFA6 year$6,320,945
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Anthony ManthaFRFA2 year$4,503,347
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Andreas AthanasiouFRFA2 year$1,881,831
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Sounds about right, maybe a little light on Athanasiou's AAV.
 
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Hen Kolland

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Feb 22, 2018
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Here's a great Excel sheet to predict the top UFA and RFA.

In terms of accuracy, the cap hit model is definitely improved. When you know the actual length, the mean average error (mean average percent error) of the 2017 FA class by position is: F: 305K (21%) D: 278K (19%) G: 530K (37%)

According to this :

Dylan LarkinFRFA6 year$6,320,945
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Anthony ManthaFRFA2 year$4,503,347
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Andreas AthanasiouFRFA2 year$1,881,831
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Sounds about right, maybe a little light on Athanasiou's AAV.

That AAV for Mantha seems a bit high for a Holland bridge deal; I'm not anticipating his deal exceeds $4M, but maybe an extra year $3.5M-$4M for 3 years instead of the $4.5 for 2 years. Everyone is happy.

Athanasiou probably sees an uptick in compensation to fall in line with inflation of the cap, but I don't see much of a raise being rewarded. I think that Holland will offer slightly more in hopes that he can avoid arbitration.
 

Perfect Human

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Dec 17, 2014
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Wow, we are really paying Stephen Weiss for three more years?

Bertuzzi will probably get closer to 1.8M/yr for two years, Frk may go to arbitration, just for assurance
 

ShelbyZ

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Apr 8, 2015
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Bertuzzi will probably get closer to 1.8M/yr for two years, Frk may go to arbitration, just for assurance

IMO, that's steep for Bertuzzi. He probably gets offers similar to what AA got last summer but a tad cheaper since he has less NHL experience on his resume. Something like 1year for around $1M or 2years at closer to $1.5M.

I don't think Frk even needs to worry about arbitration. He probably gets a 2 year one-way bridge deal around $900k a season that takes him to his last summer as an RFA. He'd probably get a cheaper 1 year deal through arbitration.
 

Perfect Human

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Dec 17, 2014
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IMO, that's steep for Bertuzzi. He probably gets offers similar to what AA got last summer but a tad cheaper since he has less NHL experience on his resume. Something like 1year for around $1M or 2years at closer to $1.5M.

I don't think Frk even needs to worry about arbitration. He probably gets a 2 year one-way bridge deal around $900k a season that takes him to his last summer as an RFA. He'd probably get a cheaper 1 year deal through arbitration.

In Frk's case I dont think its an issue signing him, just more of assurance that they get a deal done.

I think of Abdelkaders old contract with an AAV of 1.8M for Bertuzzi, but may be a tad premature, Abds was a few years older when that deal started
 

Run the Jewels

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Custance has a pretty solid take on this in his latest article for the Athletic. The key for me is not signing Green in case Doughty, OEL or Karlsson hit free agency. I'm also fine with trading one of Nyquist, Mantha or Athanasiou to get a high quality draft pick in this upcoming draft. Getting one of those Islanders first rounders would be pretty sweet.

I also don't really want to spend on a quality backup goalie. Give yourself a chance at Jack Hughes next year and see if you can score a prime UFA dman. Those two additions would go a long way towards becoming truly competitive in a couple years.
 

Winger98

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Custance has a pretty solid take on this in his latest article for the Athletic. The key for me is not signing Green in case Doughty, OEL or Karlsson hit free agency. I'm also fine with trading one of Nyquist, Mantha or Athanasiou to get a high quality draft pick in this upcoming draft. Getting one of those Islanders first rounders would be pretty sweet.

I also don't really want to spend on a quality backup goalie. Give yourself a chance at Jack Hughes next year and see if you can score a prime UFA dman. Those two additions would go a long way towards becoming truly competitive in a couple years.

the problem with the backup position is Howard's ability to stay healthy. While just tanking by going with the worst goalie possible is appealing in some ways, I think you have to worry how an unquestionably junk goalie would bleed into the play of everyone else. Keeping everyone moving forward and putting in a good deal of effort during a losing season has to be difficult under any circumstances. Now imagine it when you know your goalie is a tire fire.

I don't see it as a big concern anyway. None of the UFA goalie are likely to step in and be a Vezina candidate, and if someone does it really just be luck. A goalie who can step in and just be average wouldn't be a bad thing, though.
 

ShelbyZ

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Custance has a pretty solid take on this in his latest article for the Athletic. The key for me is not signing Green in case Doughty, OEL or Karlsson hit free agency. I'm also fine with trading one of Nyquist, Mantha or Athanasiou to get a high quality draft pick in this upcoming draft. Getting one of those Islanders first rounders would be pretty sweet.

Interestingly, if you look at TSN's "Offseason Game Plan"s from Scott Cullen for Detroit and Arizona, he never goes into full details, but somehow he ends up with OEL on the Wings and AA and Hronek in Arizona.
 
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Reddwit

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Custance has a pretty solid take on this in his latest article for the Athletic. The key for me is not signing Green in case Doughty, OEL or Karlsson hit free agency. I'm also fine with trading one of Nyquist, Mantha or Athanasiou to get a high quality draft pick in this upcoming draft. Getting one of those Islanders first rounders would be pretty sweet.

I also don't really want to spend on a quality backup goalie. Give yourself a chance at Jack Hughes next year and see if you can score a prime UFA dman. Those two additions would go a long way towards becoming truly competitive in a couple years.

I don't see any reason why OEL, Karlsson, or Doughty would choose Detroit if they made it to free agency. And in the bizarre event that they're interested in Detroit, if Green's contract is standing in your way and you can't do something about it, you're a terrible GM. Next off-season, it should be feasible for any GM worth his salt to trade Daley and/or trade Ericsson and Helm with modest retention (i.e. 15-20%).

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I want Green back (assuming he comes with a reasonable shorter-term deal). With the pace of today's NHL, its going to be pure drudgery for our forwards to be sent out every shift with a bunch of lead-footed defenseman who can't compensate by moving the puck. He'd also be a great lockerroom asset as the guy knows what its like to be a young offensive defenseman in this league. He could be a great mentor to Hronek, Cholo and likely Bouchard/Hughes. I suppose Hicketts too.
 

NickH8

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I don't see any reason why OEL, Karlsson, or Doughty would choose Detroit if they made it to free agency. And in the bizarre event that they're interested in Detroit, if Green's contract is standing in your way and you can't do something about it, you're a terrible GM. Next off-season, it should be feasible for any GM worth his salt to trade Daley and/or trade Ericsson and Helm with modest retention (i.e. 15-20%).

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I want Green back (assuming he comes with a reasonable shorter-term deal). With the pace of today's NHL, its going to be pure drudgery for our forwards to be sent out every shift with a bunch of lead-footed defenseman who can't compensate by moving the puck. He'd also be a great lockerroom asset as the guy knows what its like to be a young offensive defenseman in this league. He could be a great mentor to Hronek, Cholo and likely Bouchard/Hughes. I suppose Hicketts too.
If we manage to trade Ericsson or Daley with retained salary I'd be okay with keeping Green. Kronwall's contract ends after next season so we don't have to worry about his contract.
In 2019-2020 you'd be running:
Daley/Ericsson - 2018 pick
Cholowski - Green
DeKeyser - Hronek
 

PelagicJoe

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If we manage to trade Ericsson or Daley with retained salary I'd be okay with keeping Green. Kronwall's contract ends after next season so we don't have to worry about his contract.
In 2019-2020 you'd be running:
Daley/Ericsson - 2018 pick
Cholowski - Green
DeKeyser - Hronek

That blue line is still very sad. How did we go from a top pairing of Lidstrom and Rafalski to Daley & Ericsson? :facepalm:
 

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