Salary Cap: Salary Cap & Roster Building | Monday, February 26

[Dipsy Doodle]

Here's the really confusing thing I see. Let's pretend that the Penguins didn't already say no to Pageau, and they were still in the bidding for him. The rumored asking price according to KIRK is something like Sprong and a high pick for Pageau. That's basically what the Penguins gave up for Kessel, which was basically Kapanen and a 1st plus some filler. So why does it make sense to do that? You'd have to severely overpay for a player that isn't having a good season and isn't even as good as people like to think he is.

Because we need a good 3C, Pageau is on a steal of a deal for 2 more years, and there isn't much in UFA to address this issue even after this season.

Go read Sheahan's stats again. Crazy thought: I included both of their first full time seasons, because 2014-2015 was Sheahan's first full time season. I didn't cherrypick anything, I excluded the clear outlier seasons and started when both became "full time" NHLers. And if you think a 5 point difference is "stomping him", well, I don't know what to tell you.

I see them just fine. If you think that including a season from 4 years ago that has both Sheahan's best full-time season and Pageau's worst gives a better representation of the player, there's not much to say. That's the cherry-pickingest cherry pick there is haha.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I see them just fine. If you think that including a season from 4 years ago that has both Sheahan's best full-time season and Pageau's worst gives a better representation of the player, there's not much to say. That's the cherry-pickingest cherry pick there is haha.

No, Pageau's worst season was this year, which I didn't include in the stats. I literally started counting for when both players were full time NHLers, which was in 2014-2015. You're only disagreeing here because it shows them to be closer than you think they should be.

If we can't include 2014-2015 because it's favorable to Sheahan, let's just get rid of 2015-2016 too, which is favorable to Pageau since he had his best full time season. I find it really funny how you're saying this while using Sheahan's 2016-2017 and Pageau's 2015-2016.

Sheahan this year: Pace of 7 goals and 30 points per 82 games, 27 ES points
Pageau last year: 12 goals and 33 points in 82 games, 31 ES points

Wow, such a massive difference!

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

And that year where he centered Stone or Ryan on a regular basis doesn't help Pageau? Bums, the both of them.

Sure. But he produced in those years, and Sheahan was playing with comparable players in Detroit when he floundered.

Pageau has been by far the better ES player over a large sample size.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I see them just fine. If you think that including a season from 4 years ago that has both Sheahan's best full-time season and Pageau's worst gives a better representation of the player, there's not much to say. That's the cherry-pickingest cherry pick there is haha.

that's when they both became full time NHL players.

 

[cheesedanish87]

That Pageau's advantage isn't based on one bad season from Sheahan, like you suggested. He's produced a lot better at ES for a long time.

I know Sheahan struggled in the past, but i don't care about that.

What matters is what is Sheahan doing now and what is he going to do in the future.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

No, Pageau's worst season was this year, which I didn't include in the stats. I literally started counting for when both players were full time NHLers, which was in 2014-2015. You're only disagreeing here because it shows them to be closer than you think they should be.

If we can't include 2014-2015 because it's favorable to Sheahan, let's just get rid of 2015-2016 too, which is favorable to Pageau since he had his best full time season. I find it really funny how you're saying this while using Sheahan's 2016-2017 and Pageau's 2015-2016.

Do you really want to go with just '16-'17 and '17-'18?

Haha, nice ninja edit. Better not include both years for both players eh?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

that's when they both became full time NHL players.

It sure is. And purely coincidentally, Pageau's worst year and Sheahan's best, both from 4 years ago. And we're talking about what best represents the player presently.

 

[Ogrezilla]

It sure is. And purely coincidentally, Pageau's worst year and Sheahan's best, both from 4 years ago. And we're talking about what best represents the player presently.

both of their best seasons are long enough ago that I don't really care about either.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

both of their best seasons are long enough ago that I don't really care about either.

Or any sample size longer than this past-half-season, evidently.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Or any sample size longer than this past-half-season, evidently.

Sheahan's time here is more important than any time he had anywhere else. I literally do not care what he did in Detroit at this point. It is 100% irrelevant to how he's playing here.

We don't have that with Pageau to compare with. We have to go with what exists, which is him in Ott. I'm fine with using whatever sample size you want for him. But for Sheahan, I'm looking at his time here, because nothing else matters nearly as much. A half season in Pittsburgh is more relevant to how he plays in Pittsburgh than any number of years in Detroit.

 

[Riptide]

Peageau definitely confuses me. I don't watch him much so maybe it's just a perfect style fit or something. But statistically he scores a bit less than Sheahan in a bit more ice time. If the issue is that Sheahan doesn't give us 3 scoring lines, I just don't get why Pageau will.

But dude, you have to look at the "totality of things" and that's the only way to get an "accurate picture".

The argument that most make is that it's a "fit" issue with Kessel and that Pageau or someone else will "fit" better with Kessel then Sheahan does. And I don't really disagree with that. I do disagree that we can somehow predict how JGP or someone else will "fit" with Kessel. Fit or chemistry are a weird thing and you can't always predict who will have it or how it will work. Again, I'll just point out that despite having the exact same players, system and coach, HBK only worked for ~25% of the games Bonino played as a Penguin. But Pageau/X - they're a lock to be an amazing fit, and absolutely better then Sheahan is.

This is actually where bring in a LW could easily make the difference as it gives you someone else you can slot there to see how it goes. And if it doesn't work with RS/PK, then see where else it might work. It's not like guys like that haven't excelled with Crosby or Malkin before (although if HMH is healthy/working I wouldn't be touching it).

I think a worse player than Guentzel can make it a far better line than Guentzel did if it's the right player. Kessel and Sheahan would need someone to work the boards and play smart (honestly someone like how Hags is playing lately). Honestly, I don't know who is all available. I'm not disagreeing with the theory, and C is definitely a more important position.

And they're easier/cheaper to find too. Reider, Maroon, Grabner, McGinn, Z.Smith, Pouliot (or someone else from BUF), Comeau, etc. Every one of those guys has less skill then Guentzel. And I think every one of them would be a better fit with Sheahan and Kessel then Guentzel is - but then I think Rust or Hagelin would be as well. Just need some healthy bodies back so we can try a few things.

Obviously I do too. I just disagree with your assessment of how low our chances are with Sheahan at 3C. If we add a guy like Pageau, we have done more to upgrade our 4th line by replacing Rowney with Sheahan than we have to upgrade our 3rd line by replacing Sheahan with Pageau.

I've said this many many times (going back many many threads). I think you're wasting your breath (or keystrokes?) on this. That said, I agree completely. Our 4th line going from trash to looking good when Sheahan was there (when Guentzel was 3C) says more about Rowney and our 4th line in general then it does about Sheahan. Which is why I'm okay with someone like Letestu or Richardson or Pleks coming in. Obviously the better the player the better it would be for us, as in an ideal world we'd have someone who could legitimately push for the 3C spot and actually work great with Kessel. I mean if you have someone that can replace a lot of what Sheahan does (or someone somewhere between Bonino 15/16 and 16/17 for production and zone starts) and then have RS behind him, you're in really good shape.

Center is inherently a more important position, and I don't think there are any available LWs you could add to make a Sheahan-Kessel combo a scoring line. As we all saw, Guentzel sure ain't it. If you give me a choice for this team between any of the LWs available and Pageau, I'm taking Pageau.

Agreed completely. I'm just not sure why that's a condemnation on Sheahan though. I mean I'm not a huge fan of Guentzel and Kessel with Malkin either... but I don't blame Malkin when that line doesn't look amazing. I look at the line in it's totality and ask how to improve upon it.

I clarified that in a post to Peat - clearly the goal isn't to have a hard-fought series and lose. I wanted to know if people honestly thought we could beat Tampa in 7 game series. With the present 3C situation, I don't think so.

Teams that don't go all-in have a chance to win, of course. An 8 seed has a chance to make a Cinderella run. What I want is our best chance to win - to me, that has to include an upgrade at 3C, otherwise we're not going all-in.

I can't disagree enough with this statement.

 

[theicebox]

Based on the discussion from the last page, I wanted to list players who we've acquired in what seem to be strong hockey trades by Rutherford, or at least trades that delivered positive assets to the organization. Quite the list for a short period of time, and I'd argue poised to grow

Offense Trades:

Hornqvist
Kessel (via Spaling flip)
Hagelin (via Perron flip via pick... that turned into Barzal, but still worth it for the Cups)
Bonino
Sheahan
+ hopefully one more this season.

Defense Trades:

Schultz
Daley
Oleksiak
Cole
Hainsey
≈ Lovejoy
≈ Streit
+ hopefully Pedan can transfer his AHL success with WBS into the NHL.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Do you really want to go with just '16-'17 and '17-'18?

Haha, nice ninja edit. Better not include both years for both players eh?

Why do you think last year is at all an accurate representation for what Sheahan can do? Literally any unbiased person can look at that and dismiss it because of how clearly of an outlier it is.

 

[Ugene Magic]

We're really splitting hairs between Sheahan/Pageau.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Sheahan's time here is more important than any time he had anywhere else. I literally do not care what he did in Detroit at this point. It is 100% irrelevant to how he's playing here.

We don't have that with Pageau to compare with. We have to go with what exists, which is him in Ott. I'm fine with using whatever sample size you want for him. But for Sheahan, I'm looking at his time here, because nothing else matters nearly as much.

What you're saying is that Sheahan gets the benefit of only being evaluated on a half-season of his post-Pens bump stats, and you compare that to other centers in their present circumstances, no matter how pronounced the difference in the quality of their team or linemates. And that's an even playing field?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Why do you think last year is at all an accurate representation for what Sheahan can do? Literally any unbiased person can look at that and dismiss it because of how clearly of an outlier it is.

You don't get to omit a whole season of a player's career just because it doesn't reflect well in comparison with prospective trade targets. I'm fine with comparing Sheahan and Pageau for any length sample size, provided people look at context and don't cherry-pick which seasons to keep and which to leave out.

You wanted to go back to '14-'15. Okay. Let's use all the season between then and now, without omitting any, and see how the difference in their ES points compares to Pageau and other centers.

 

[Ogrezilla]

What you're saying is that Sheahan gets the benefit of only being evaluated on a half-season of his post-Pens bump stats, and you compare that to other centers in their present circumstances, no matter how pronounced the difference in the quality of their team or linemates. And that's an even playing field?

Sheahan absolutely gets the benefit of us KNOWING how he plays here, yes. Pageau might be able to do well here. But he might not. If I'm going all in, my big splash move isn't relying on a guy getting considerably better in a new environment. I want a guy who is performing how I want my new guy to perform.

That's not to say I wouldn't be happy to add Pageau. But I just don't see how you are so confident in him coming in and turning L3 into this scoring line in a way that Sheahan can't. Again, maybe he can. He has played at that level once before. So has Sheahan.

Like I said before, if we add Pageau, the bigger upgrade would likely be Rowney to Sheahan.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Pageau is a great 3C. Sheahan is an average 3C. I don't think the difference between a great 3C and an average 3C is even remotely big enough to justify paying what Pageau would cost. That more or less sums up my opinion on Pageau. Bring in a good 4C and your center depth is good.

You don't get to omit a whole season of a player's career just because it doesn't reflect well in comparison with prospective trade targets. I'm fine with comparing Sheahan and Pageau for any length sample size, provided people look at context and don't cherry-pick which seasons to keep and which to leave out.

You wanted to go back to '14-'15. Okay. Let's use all the season between then and now, without omitting any, and see how the difference in their ES points compares to Pageau and other centers.

So you actually think Sheahan getting 13 points is at all an accurate representation of his ability level? Seriously? Good thing you're not a statistician

 

[Riptide]

Theoretically maybe? It's more "throw **** at the wall" than a good bet though, I think. We've got a pretty diverse collection of wingers, and none of them have been able to make a Sheahan-centered 3rd line look like a scoring line for any decent length of time.

1) Do we though? Outside of Rust, Hornqvist and Hagelin, how diverse are our wingers? I mean apart from their individual skill, Simon, Sheary, Guentzel and Kessel are not all that different. Guentzel is grittier then the rest, but that's not saying much, and the rest are all pretty similar. And those guys when healthy account for 2/3rds of our top 6.
2) How much have we actually seen of Rust/Hagelin with Sheahan and Kessel? This is a legitimate question. I'm not talking about a half a shift, or a random shift here or there... I'm talking about a legitimate effort to try someone else other than Guentzel on that line.

There's a reason why some of us have been lobbying for another LWer... and that's because we really do not have much diversity when it comes to our wingers - outside of a very select few. And we have no one who even remotely resembles Hornqvist's style of play other than him. I'm not even talking about someone as good as him, I'm talking about anyone who's even close to like him. Because after him it's Kuhnhackl or Rust. One isn't like him and the other who maybe we could pretend is, we wouldn't want in the top 9.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If we're including Sheahan's 2016-2017 as an accurate representation of his talent level, we might as well include Pageau's 2013-2014 too, where he had 2 points in 28 games. 114 points in 291 games for Pageau, 118 points in 337 games for Sheahan. 32 point pace for Pageau, 29 point pace for Sheahan.

 

[Ogrezilla]

The only way Carl Hagelin doesn't become completely useless on offense is to have him skate with 71 and 81. Otherwise, no matter who centers Kessel and Hagelin, HBK is dead. There is no redux. John Tavares is not walking through that door. And that's basically what it would take.

Hags was playing great with Malkin and Horny too. That said, I'm not opposed to Kessel with Geno.

 

[Riptide]

If we don't have the right LW for Phil Kessel, then why move Kessel to Line 3 in the first place? Why not keep together the best 1-2 punch in the NHL? Do people realize we have not 1, but TWO Hart trophy candidates this season and neither is named Sidney Crosby?

The only way Carl Hagelin doesn't become completely useless on offense is to have him skate with 71 and 81. Otherwise, no matter who centers Kessel and Hagelin, HBK is dead. There is no redux. John Tavares is not walking through that door. And that's basically what it would take.

A new 3C (or Sheahan), combined with two of Hornqvist, Rust, Sheary, Simon and maybe Sprong (if the coach gets his head out of his asss) should give us enough of a third line to win in the playoffs.

Because it doesn't matter how that 3rd line is constructed if Kessel isn't there - it simply will never be a matchup threat. It could be a very solid line (GSR or SSH, or whatever) that produces decently... but without Kessel there the threat will never be enough to pull any coverage from Crosby or Malkin. Hell even when HBK was flying and eating teams alive, it took until the TB series for a team to focus more on HBK then Malkin. That's what we want - for them to have to make that choice. And no version of a Kessel-less 3rd line will make that happen, regardless of what center we acquire or how well they're playing/producing.

I'm not saying we need that to win - I think GSR or SSH are a couple options that would probably work well for us and give us enough to win. But our best chance is with Kessel there (and producing) simply due to the issues it will cause the other team.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Pageau and Sheahan's respective ES production from '14-'15 to '17-'18:

Sheahan: 295 GP, 73 ES PTS (.25 ESP/G)
Pageau: 263 GP, 96 ES PTS (.37 ESP/G)

A .12 ESP/G difference. Might not seem like much, but to put that in context, here are some other centers over that span:

Staal: 258 GP, 109 ES PTS (.42 ESP/G)
Couture: 257 GP, 118 ES PTS (.46 ESP/G)
Little: 241 GP, 118 ES PTS (.49 ESP/G)
Stastny: 261 GP, 126 ES PTS (.48 ESP/G)
ROR: 278 GP, 132 ES PTS (.47 ESP/G)
Giroux: 295 GP, 135 ES PTS (.46 ESP/G)
Johansen: 294 GP, 138 ES PTS (.47 ESP/G)
Sedin: 293 GP, 139 ES PTS (.47 ESP/G)
Bergeron: 287 GP, 140 ES PTS (.48 ESP/G)

Sheahan absolutely gets the benefit of us KNOWING how he plays here, yes. Pageau might be able to do well here. But he might not. If I'm going all in, my big splash move isn't relying on a guy getting considerably better in a new environment. I want a guy who is performing how I want my new guy to perform.

That's not to say I wouldn't be happy to add Pageau. But I just don't see how you are so confident in him coming in and turning L3 into this scoring line in a way that Sheahan can't.

It seems to me that when you're projecting how a player might do on your team, or any time you compare 2 players, sample size and linemates are pretty universal factors. The difference there has been pronounced enough that I think we can reasonably project he'd be a considerable upgrade over Sheahan here.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

So you actually think Sheahan getting 13 points is at all an accurate representation of his ability level? Seriously? Good thing you're not a statistician

I think Sheahan had a shitty season that you can't simply wish away. It's an outlier than Pageau never had. One might call that "consistency".

 

[Ogrezilla]

Pageau and Sheahan's respective ES production from '14-'15 to '17-'18:

Sheahan: 295 GP, 73 ES PTS (.25 ESP/G)
Pageau: 263 GP, 96 ES PTS (.37 ESP/G)

A .12 ESP/G difference. Might not seem like much, but to put that in context, here are some other centers over that span:

Staal: 258 GP, 109 ES PTS (.42 ESP/G)
Couture: 257 GP, 118 ES PTS (.46 ESP/G)
Little: 241 GP, 118 ES PTS (.49 ESP/G)
Stastny: 261 GP, 126 ES PTS (.48 ESP/G)
ROR: 278 GP, 132 ES PTS (.47 ESP/G)
Giroux: 295 GP, 135 ES PTS (.46 ESP/G)
Johansen: 294 GP, 138 ES PTS (.47 ESP/G)
Sedin: 293 GP, 139 ES PTS (.47 ESP/G)
Bergeron: 287 GP, 140 ES PTS (.48 ESP/G)



It seems to me that when you're projecting how a player might do on your team, or any time you compare 2 players, sample size and linemates are pretty universal factors. The difference there has been pronounced enough that I think we can reasonably project he'd be a considerable upgrade over Sheahan here.

Sheahan's ESP/G with the Penguins is .40. That's pretty damn good. How much better than that do you expect to get out of Pageau? That's my question. I'm not questioning if Pageau is good. I think he's likely a bit better than Sheahan. But enough to take a line with a .40 ESP/G center who you are calling a hole in the line-up and make it a now legit scoring line?