Salary Cap: Salary Cap & Roster Building | Cat On a Tin Roof, Dogs In a Pile

[AjaxTelamon]

I understand the love and adoration for Hornqvist and I myself love what he brings to the team. But if anyone thinks his production won't start to fall off or that the injuries aren't likely to pile up due to his style of play, then I suggest you're thinking with your heart and not your head. It's easy to say we'll worry about the lean years down the road, but when they come the gnashing of teeth and disgruntlement as to what happened would be epic.

All that being said I seriously doubt he's a Penguin beyond this season.

Or people could be looking at the history of players who play like he does and making a projection based on that information. It's been pointed out numerous times here.

 

[NMK11]

I want to resign him, think he's definitely worth it in the short term and I don't think he'd be an issue to move if things got tight.

But I do understand Ryder71s points, and I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk in any one direction. I think the only wrong answer here is to trade him for Pouliot.

 

[Ryder71]

Or people could be looking at the history of players who play like he does and making a projection based on that information. It's been pointed out numerous times here.

Such as?

 

[Ryder71]

I want to resign him, think he's definitely worth it in the short term and I don't think he'd be an issue to move if things got tight.

But I do understand Ryder71s points, and I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk in any one direction. I think the only wrong answer here is to trade him for Pouliot.

I understand fans wanting him to be re-signed, if the rumors are true JR offered him three years and Horny wants five years. I'd be all for a three year deal, maybe even four, but not beyond that. Which is why I doubt he'll be here next season.

 

[cygnus47]

Is 5.5mil overpaying for a consistent 50 point player? No!

Also don’t think top 6/bottom 6. We are built right now based on a top 9 scoring team. When doing a line up your 3 best players don’t have to be on the 1st line, you’re next 3 don’t have to be on the 2nd line.

We do have to make the cap work but we are looking pretty good for the next little while.

5.5M wouldn't have been unfair for his last 5 years, no, but will it be worth it for the NEXT 5? At some point in the next 5 years his ES scoring is almost certainly going to dry up. It's already been on a downward trend since he got here:

Hornqvist's ES scoring per game:
14-15: 0.56 (36 ESP in 64 games)
15-16: 0.44 (36 ESP in 82 games)
16-17: 0.39 (27 ESP in 70 games)
17-18: 0.30 (12 ESP in 40 games so far)

I'll write off this year so far, but is 5.5M a fair contract for a 40 point player? A 30 point player? Is it worth it for a PP specialist in a few years? What if he misses half that time with injuries too?

4-5 million dollar contracts for non-vital personnel are the ones that GM's screw up the most often imo. You can only make 1 or 2 of those mistakes before your cap situation is screwed and you have to buy someone out or dump them for chips.

Don't get me wrong, I love horny, but his is a situation you have to be very careful with.

 

[Riptide]

Hornqvist is a vital part of the team. Who cares if he doesn’t fit certain line combinations. You make it work because he helps the team win games.

Kessel doesn’t fit with Sid and really doesn’t play the same type of game as Geno, but who cares because he produces offense unlike anyone on the team outside the big two.

Only to an extent - the cap/term has to work as well. If he wants 6.5m with term, you pretty much have to walk away. However if it's 5m or 5.5m then you make it work.

 

[Tom Hanks]

5.5M wouldn't have been unfair for his last 5 years, no, but will it be worth it for the NEXT 5? At some point in the next 5 years his ES scoring is almost certainly going to dry up. It's already been on a downward trend since he got here:

Hornqvist's ES scoring per game:
14-15: 0.56 (36 ESP in 64 games)
15-16: 0.44 (36 ESP in 82 games)
16-17: 0.39 (27 ESP in 70 games)
17-18: 0.30 (12 ESP in 40 games so far)

I'll write off this year so far, but is 5.5M a fair contract for a 40 point player? A 30 point player? Is it worth it for a PP specialist in a few years? What if he misses half that time with injuries too?

4-5 million dollar contracts for non-vital personnel are the ones that GM's screw up the most often imo. You can only make 1 or 2 of those mistakes before your cap situation is screwed and you have to buy someone out or dump them for chips.

Don't get me wrong, I love horny, but his is a situation you have to be very careful with.

I get the worry about the decline but for the next 3 seasons I think he’s going to be pretty solid. Whoever gets him probably has to give 5 years. There will be some drop off in the last couple years but it’s probably not a worst case scenario situation of decline.

Cap will be rising over those years, his work ethic is one of the best I’ve seen and Cullen said he’s the most intense guy he’s ever played with. Those factors are important in this scenario. He’s the guy that won’t quit.

If trading is as hard as it has been this season that really adds to the risk and FA is usually expensive.

 

[Riptide]

Woof! That would be a laughably bad contract. No way Horny should be getting a raise! This is what we call “paying a premium for past performance”.

No, it's called paying market rate. Look at what other FA's are signing for. Hornqvist is going to cost 5.5m or there abouts. We may not like it, but them's the breaks. And at 5.5m, as long as his NTC is limited (bc he will get one) and his contract is back diving to make it easier to trade in 2-4 years) then it's not the end of the world. The guy is legitimately a good player, and is one of the best in the league at what he does.

The only thing I can see about Hornqvist is if he wants more than five years.

That would be concerning. At least depending on the cap hit. However even if it's 6 years... if you can structure it in such a way that those final 2 years have a low salary, then perhaps it's still not the end of the world. Under no circumstances would I go past 6 years with him, even if he was giving us a low AAV.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

5.5M wouldn't have been unfair for his last 5 years, no, but will it be worth it for the NEXT 5? At some point in the next 5 years his ES scoring is almost certainly going to dry up. It's already been on a downward trend since he got here:

Hornqvist's ES scoring per game:
14-15: 0.56 (36 ESP in 64 games)
15-16: 0.44 (36 ESP in 82 games)
16-17: 0.39 (27 ESP in 70 games)
17-18: 0.30 (12 ESP in 40 games so far)

I'll write off this year so far, but is 5.5M a fair contract for a 40 point player? A 30 point player? Is it worth it for a PP specialist in a few years? What if he misses half that time with injuries too?

4-5 million dollar contracts for non-vital personnel are the ones that GM's screw up the most often imo. You can only make 1 or 2 of those mistakes before your cap situation is screwed and you have to buy someone out or dump them for chips.

Don't get me wrong, I love horny, but his is a situation you have to be very careful with.

He's also been dicked around the most out of any forward on this roster. On any given night he's either a LW on Geno's line, RW on Sid's, RW on Geno's or RW on Sheahan's.

That's just idiotic.

His ES scoring has dwindled a little because the team was playing like crap and Horny wasn't for the most part even with injuries taking him out and even then he came back and played his style. They were desperately searching and guys like Horny were the guys that suffered the most with constant line juggling which NO ONE LIKES. NO ONE. Sid now can shut the f*** up and have his give and go wingers, Geno has his, so leave the 3rd line alone with S-S-H.

There were times that Sheary-Sheahan-Hornqvist was the best line on this team when the top 2 were trash and Sullivan still f***ed with it the way he f***s with every line way too much, he just can't leave it alone and now he has to because he has RW depth. Leave Horny with Sheahan and watch Horny produce his normal numbers and even bump his line as well. This is why I am 100% ok with Horny and Sheahan as the 3rd line anchors and just an upgrade on the 4C front. We're fine, the rest is literally coaching and players just getting their heads out of their ass and maybe the dumping of Hags for someone more useful for their cap hit.

 

[cygnus47]

He's also been dicked around the mos out of any forward on this roster. On any given night he's either a LW on Geno's line, RW on Sid's, RW on Geno's or RW on Sheahan's.

That's just idiotic.

Even if it's possible he could be more productive, he's only got the time the coaches give him. I don't see any situation where his usage gets more favourable over the next few years, unless Kessel gets traded or something?

 

[Peat]

Woof! That would be a laughably bad contract. No way Horny should be getting a raise! This is what we call “paying a premium for past performance”.

When Horny signed his contract, the salary cap was 64m (I think). Everyone's expecting it to stand at 80m next year. You should be expecting his contract to go up by a million simply to reflect wage inflation, nevermind any premiums for him being able to go to FA.

And, as noted, the rough comparables for Hornqvist to date are making roughly that money too.

I just cannot understand this perspective. At all. So I have to ask some questions:

- Why would the Pens look to focus on asset management now with a guy like Hornqvist?

- Why wouldn't we do everything we can to re-sign him instead of focusing on asset management? Working out a deal can take time.

- What do you honestly think we would get for him? And to whom are you trading him?

- What the hell do you want with futures?

- Why would the Pens not be one of those teams looking for "that one piece" and trying to find it in a different way?

And most importantly - what do you think the Pens window is? I would say a solid 5 year window here. With that solid 5 year window, I'm not busy worrying looking for draft picks and stuff. I'd rather suck after Sid/Geno leave and i'd rather find the next Sid/Geno to piss people off.

- Because we're probably not winning the cup and letting a big asset walk in a year with really big odds of winning it strikes some people as a bad idea.

- Because it doesn't look like the team wants to do that/is certain of doing that

- KIRK/Jiggy were saying 1st and B prospect so I'll go with that until someone makes a better case. Too sleepy to work out to whom.

- I'll always take futures if on offer. But there's a good chance they're getting flipped to fix some other roster issues.

- Because the Pens look more than one piece away.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Even if it's possible he could be more productive, he's only got the time the coaches give him. I don't see any situation where his usage gets more favourable over the next few years, unless Kessel gets traded or something?

Well he's still the best net front presence for the power play and if they do keep him on the 3rd line he will produce. He's a guy that is reliable for that. I'd still commit 5.5/3yrs.

 

[billybudd]

Such as?

Brunette, Holmstrom, Tocchet, Andreychuk, Ciccarelli, Ferraro, Verbeek (etc)

It's logical to assume that the net front guys who take a bad beating should age poorly due to damage, but that hasn't really been the case, historically speaking--even with smaller guys than Hornqvist (last 3 guys I mentioned were all pretty small). The reason is probably because they never really relied on skills or athleticism in the first place, so age-related erosion doesn't hit them as hard as it would for a Vinny Lecavalier, whose game was entirely dependent on having better physical tools than other people.

It's sort of like how Adams could play with a torn ACL and broken wrist and not look any different because he couldn't skate or shoot to begin with. He had to rely on other things to hold down a job, so he never became dependent on the things that age takes away in your early 30s, experiencing a long, low-gradient decline (from a low starting point), instead of an overnight washing up (even at the end, Adams was still, unbelievably, not the worst forward we had). Conversely, if you gave Taylor Hall a bad enough leg, he'd go from star to bum instantaneously.

 

[MeinerEiner]

With Brock Nelson available I was wondering about a Nelson for Hunwick deal. I don´t know much about Nelson but it pushes Kuhn out of the line up and we got rid of Hunwick. What do you think? Any infos on Nelson?

 

[NeedleInTheHay]

With Brock Nelson available I was wondering about a Nelson for Hunwick deal. I don´t know much about Nelson but it pushes Kuhn out of the line up and we got rid of Hunwick. What do you think? Any infos on Nelson?

I think Garth Snow would have to be wasted to do that.

 

[Riptide]

I understand fans wanting him to be re-signed, if the rumors are true JR offered him three years and Horny wants five years. I'd be all for a three year deal, maybe even four, but not beyond that. Which is why I doubt he'll be here next season.

So you'd sign him till he's 34 or 35, but not 36? Hell even Kunitz at 36 AND 37 was a 17g/40pt player. And he relied a hell of a lot more on his hands and speed then Hornqvist ever will. I get not wanting to give him 6/7 years - I'm fully behind that. But 5 years when he's still in his mid 30s? I just do not see that as a deal breaker. And even 6 years might not be the end of the world depending on how it's structured. My hard and fast line would be 6, and even then that would be pretty dependent on the specific contract.

And again... structure the deal like so: 7m, 7m, 6m, 4m, 3.5m. Limit his NTC to 8-10 teams. So while you can't send him to a terrible team, as long as he's not a complete shit player, in year 4/5 moving him won't be that hard - teams like Ottawa or NYI will always be around, and moving a player with 3.5/7.5m owing is a lot easier then moving one with 5.5/11m owing. He will always have that "leader, 2x cup winner" label even a few years from now that teams will see and covert.

With Brock Nelson available I was wondering about a Nelson for Hunwick deal. I don´t know much about Nelson but it pushes Kuhn out of the line up and we got rid of Hunwick. What do you think? Any infos on Nelson?

We would be adding pretty significantly there. Nelson is a 26 yr old RFA with multiple 20g/40pt seasons, and the ability to play C/W. And with Mayfield and Pelch signed to long term cheap contracts, I'm not really sure they'd have much interest in Hunwick or a signed Cole. I would think that they'd much rather keep someone like Hickey or CDH. Although who knows... maybe Hunwick's contract tempts them. But even then, we'd still be adding. Not sure what exactly, as it depends on what value they would place on Hunwick (probably not enough). There's also the fact that we're in the same division, and I really struggle with a team trading a 26 yr old middle 6 player to us without extracting a high price. If he was 36 then I'd understand, as it would be someone who wouldn't be around for half a decade... but 26? I don't see it. Especially when they'd have other suitors.

 

[JTG]

I could see that. I’d shop him just because I think there are some GMs who still overvalue “grit”, “intangibles”, “heart”, etc, etc, but if we can’t move him he’s not a terrible player, just have to find a spot where he can capitalize on a high volume of shot attempts.

He brings a unique skillset to the team, and he's very productive on top of it. If we were to theoretically trade for a guy like Pacioretty, having he and Hornqvist on the same team would be a really good time to watch. Hornqvist is a lot like Kunitz 7 years ago...he's producing even when he's not scoring.

Well... Aren’t we? I mean, what are Sid & Geno going to look like at 35 & 36? Hopefully still very good and hopefully we’ll keep being able to retool on the fly but my hope is that those two will retire here and it seems unlikely that we’ll be a playoff team the year after they’re gone.

We are, but if when you talk about a drastic overhaul of a roster (like trading a guy like Letang would be) it would be in the team's long term best interest to target guys who are 25 and younger due to the fact we have no prospect pool. In 5 years when Sid and Geno are 35 and 36, that core would be coming into its prime.

 

[WayneSid9987]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if JR attempted(or is attempting) to get max value for a signed Horny in a deal...

All depends on the returns of that sorta deal, a Cole UFA or Cole signed deal, a Sheary and/or Hags deal.
These are the types of things we aren't privy to(the returns).

Like i said, if the brass' thought process is Letang ain't goin' anywhere. Neither is a Sprong or Phil...nor a Dumo nor Maatta nor Schultz...JR doesn't have many options left to attempt to get max value.

 

[Shaffer]

With Brock Nelson available I was wondering about a Nelson for Hunwick deal. I don´t know much about Nelson but it pushes Kuhn out of the line up and we got rid of Hunwick. What do you think? Any infos on Nelson?

Work your magic, JR.

Or just take Snow out drinking.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

When Horny signed his contract, the salary cap was 64m (I think). Everyone's expecting it to stand at 80m next year. You should be expecting his contract to go up by a million simply to reflect wage inflation, nevermind any premiums for him being able to go to FA.

And, as noted, the rough comparables for Hornqvist to date are making roughly that money too.



- Because we're probably not winning the cup and letting a big asset walk in a year with really big odds of winning it strikes some people as a bad idea.

- Because it doesn't look like the team wants to do that/is certain of doing that

- KIRK/Jiggy were saying 1st and B prospect so I'll go with that until someone makes a better case. Too sleepy to work out to whom.

- I'll always take futures if on offer. But there's a good chance they're getting flipped to fix some other roster issues.

- Because the Pens look more than one piece away.

I'm 100% sure he won't be moved if the Pens look good during their 20 game stretch to the deadline off the bye.

However, if they are flailing and say, 6-7 points out of a playoff spot, that's when I think JR needs to consider trading Hornqvist IF he believes he won't be able to sign him this summer.

That's when it will be the most sound time to move him.

 

[madinsomniac]

yeah... my fear is Hornqvist hasnt been re-signed because his agent was smart enough to forsee the cap bump and know if every team gets 5 to 7 million dollars in cap space, somebody is woefully overpaying for Hornqvist... like terrible overpayment for way too long...

 

[chethejet]

Pens are unlikely to win the cup even with Hornqvist. Keep in mind he brings that element of grit and want to that is part of his DNA. But he is a marginal skater, has close in hands and shot but not a threat from longer distances. So how long can he be that net threat? Who knows, but he will not get better from here. I have posted Nashville is all in this year and certainly has the center depth to move Jarnkrok who I think makes the Pens far better going forward than the present situation. It will take a player like him to get Jarnkrok so make the deal. Build in Nashville signing him next year with a draft pick.

 

[BrokenStick]

- Because we're probably not winning the cup and letting a big asset walk in a year with really big odds of winning it strikes some people as a bad idea.

I absolutely hate this kind of thinking. We're "probably not winning the cup" every year. Even the best team in the league goes into the playoffs with about a 10% chance of winning.

By this logic no one should ever get a rental player and should always sell of their upcoming UFAs, even the President's trophy winning team.

If you make the playoffs, you have a chance to win! A good GM should do what he can to maximize that chance, within reason.

I'd say that not selling off a critical player is within reason.

Now, if they're well out of the playoffs by the deadline, then sure, grab assets, but if they're going to make the playoffs and you want them to sell anyway... I just don't get it.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Pens are unlikely to win the cup even with Hornqvist. Keep in mind he brings that element of grit and want to that is part of his DNA. But he is a marginal skater, has close in hands and shot but not a threat from longer distances. So how long can he be that net threat? Who knows, but he will not get better from here. I have posted Nashville is all in this year and certainly has the center depth to move Jarnkrok who I think makes the Pens far better going forward than the present situation. It will take a player like him to get Jarnkrok so make the deal. Build in Nashville signing him next year with a draft pick.

A guy like Holmstrom had his best years in his mid 30s... had a couple 30 goal seasons at like 33 and 34, then another couple 20 goal seasons after that.

He was pretty much a Hornqvist clone in size, skill and avg skating ability.

Ciccarelli was smaller than Hornqvist and he had some extremely productive years through his mid 30s... a couple 40 goal seasons in his early 30s and a 35 goal season in his mid 30s.

Mike Knuble was about the worst skater I ever saw, and he didn't even start becoming productive until his mid 30s as a net front guy. He reeled of like 8 20+ goal seasons in his 30s, with a couple 30 goal seasons in there.

So while there is a good chance Hornqvist could break down and be a nightmare to watch on a bad contract, there is some pretty ample proof that guys like him his and unique skill set can be productive right into their mid 30s.

 

[NMK11]

yeah... my fear is Hornqvist hasnt been re-signed because his agent was smart enough to forsee the cap bump and know if every team gets 5 to 7 million dollars in cap space, somebody is woefully overpaying for Hornqvist... like terrible overpayment for way too long...

If he hits FA then he absolutely is making bank. However, if hes not going after crazy money, I would like to think that a deal would get done here before the trade deadline. JR has made midseason extensions in the past enough times that I have to think its on his agenda.