Salary Cap: Salary Cap + Roster Building | Cap Details + Links in First Post | Trade Deadline 2.25

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Ugene Magic

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Oct 17, 2008
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Average age isn’t very meaningful. If your 4 best players are all 32 or older, it doesn’t really matter to me if your 4th line and #7 D are 25 or younger. One doesn’t offset the other.

Our core is old. They’re going to hit the wall at almost the exact same time. We should try to mitigate that.

That's the thing, you can't. Not much more than they have, and certainly not without cost.
 

66-30-33

Registered User
Jan 24, 2006
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I'm not nearly as eager to see Kessel out the door as many but it's absolutely true that the productive half of this roster has to get younger. Soon. If Kessel helps do that...

Trade deadline and Offseason moves...

Kessel+ for Ellis and Fiala. No idea that plus we add. We lose the offensive elite threat but we get a really good top 4 Dman and a young player for the 3rd line. No idea what he's looking at on his next contract though, but maybe drop Pearson and Maatta for picks and prospects and add in say Dzingle.

Jake, Dzingle, Fiala, ??? - LW
Hornqvist, Rust, Bjugstad, Simon - RW
Crosby, Malkin, McCann, Blueger - C
Dumo, Ellis, Pettersson - LD
Letang, Schultz, Riikola - RD
MM, DeFleury - G

edit- Oops Ellis is RD not LD.
 

Empoleon8771

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I'm not going to use this chart to say that Rust is better than Kessel, but I'm going to point at one really important stat: Kessel's xGF. Being in the 55th percentile in terms of relTM xGF is not that good for someone as talented as him, because it means that he's mediocre at generating chances. He has been so talented offensively that he has been able to out-produce what his chances generated suggest he should be producing. That's why I say he's a ticking time bomb for this team, because all that needs to happen for him to fall off a cliff is for his offensive talent to get a little worse. He doesn't generate enough chances offensively for him to be able to survive a decline in offensive talent, it would be catastrophic for him to get worse. Kessel is not good at driving play offensively, he's just elite at producing. Those are 2 different things, but you generally would want a guy who's good at driving play offensively over a guy who's good at producing.

That's not a problem with Crosby and Malkin. In terms of the 2 offensive shot generation stats, Crosby is in the 97th percentile in CF and an 89th percentile in xGF and Malkin is in the 78th percentile in both. Both of those guys generate chances at an elite level or better, Kessel doesn't. That's why Crosby and Malkin are going to age a lot better than Kessel does, because they're good players outside of their shooting and playmaking.
 

Ugene Magic

EVIL LAUGH
Oct 17, 2008
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You think Kessel is on the upswing? Seriously? Because of points, right?

So um...that league scoring is up 10% since his Toronto years, he sits on the Penguins powerplay, and watching defense/forechecking means nothing. Oh I forgot, we ignore his defense because as a player-who-scores-points he doesn't have to bothered with such trivial matters.

I have no time for people who ignore he has been a 5 on 5 guy for almost his entire career. The rest we knew coming in, thanks for reminding me he doesn't defense.

But he did defense that year in the playoffs, so... there is hope.

Kessel has been doing better than any part in his career with it being more than a single season. This cluster being his best, and two of 5 on 5 with 50 even strength points.

I get it, you don't like how he plays, but he's been doing that since he got here. Nothing has changed but the team and all.
 

ChaosAgent

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May 8, 2018
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I have no time for people who ignore he has been a 5 on 5 guy for almost his entire career. The rest we knew coming in, thanks for reminding me he doesn't defense.

You're welcome! And by the way, the team has changed, and routinely doesn't look good. Him being part of a dominant third line (by the way, the other two players on that line are gone. Hm) is not a replicable phenomenon. He can't routinely play with Malkin because Malkin isn't superb defensively and Phil is a trainwreck. Sid doesn't want him flanking him. He's like a minus-gazillion and the advanced metrics back it up.

Now, the Macro picture: We aren't going far this year. If you think this team can be overhauled by just getting rid of the generally-accepted-whipping-boys and tinkering around the fringes of this roster...well, good luck with that. You may find that the new players don't have a 100% success rate at not-becoming-bad (see: Brassard, Pearson) At some point to get better we're going to have to reshape this roster a little bit closer to the core. And at higher salary brackets.
 

WayneSid9987

Registered User
Nov 24, 2009
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He's essentially a lock to be re-signed by Holland. I have a reliable source telling me this.

Yea thats my problem with Jensen.
If we had a 2nd to throw out there for him as a rental, maybe but i'd want him to stay here.
If he ain't, why bother.
 

Dipsy Doodle

Rent A Barn
May 28, 2006
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I was treating it as read that Kessel is the better power play player tbh. If I wasn't I'd have said Zucker is better, not close.

But, for what its worth, PP production is hugely system dependent and I refuse to believe that in a unit as talented as ours that there'd be much drop off if replaced with another good right hand shot.

Then I think the PP is weighted far too lightly. There isn't a minor difference between Kessel and Zucker on the PP, it's night and day.

Kessel's been the most productive player on our PP. You can't just replace your best PP player and expect no significant dropoff if you throw Bjugstad or someone of that calibre in his place. That really undervalues what Kessel does out there.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Then I think the PP is weighted far too lightly. There isn't a minor difference between Kessel and Zucker on the PP, it's night and day.

Kessel's been the most productive player on our PP. You can't just replace your best PP player and expect no significant dropoff if you throw Bjugstad or someone of that calibre in his place. That really undervalues what Kessel does out there.

The comparison isn't Zucker vs Kessel on the PP though, it's Zucker at ES and Schultz on the PP vs Kessel. Suddenly, that seems a lot less clear than Zucker vs Kessel in general.
 

Jacob

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Feb 27, 2002
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That's the thing, you can't. Not much more than they have, and certainly not without cost.
You're probably right. But if they could, I'd do it. *If* you could get someone to take Johnson along with Kessel, with no salary retained, and we get back futures.. maybe a 1st round pick and a roster player that's young and cost-controlled and still on an upswing, I'd do that.

I could see a number of teams being interested in Kessel without any qualms about taking a bad deal along with him, maybe not even perceiving Johnson as having negative value. Teams with young cores that need a punch of offense to get over the next hump, and have cap room, like Arizona or Vancouver.
 

Dipsy Doodle

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The comparison isn't Zucker vs Kessel on the PP though, it's Zucker at ES and Schultz on the PP vs Kessel. Suddenly, that seems a lot less clear than Zucker vs Kessel in general.

I like Schultz plenty, but I don't have faith in him being able to slide into a a spot on the left half boards without the Pens missing a beat. Kessel isn't some afterthought there. Whatever his other foibles, he's our best PP player and the 2nd most productive PP player in the league over the last 2.5 years.

I'm adamant that I wouldn't want to see Kessel leave without getting an elite winger like Skinner or Stone to replace him. If we simply want to add another top 6 winger, there are various ways to do that without parting with an elite winger on a great deal. We have draft picks, prospects, and a ton of other players who aren't living up to their contracts. I'd exhaust every possibility involving those before entertaining a deal where we move Kessel just to get Zucker.
 
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KIRK

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Aug 2, 2005
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You're probably right. But if they could, I'd do it. *If* you could get someone to take Johnson along with Kessel, with no salary retained, and we get back futures.. maybe a 1st round pick and a roster player that's young and cost-controlled and still on an upswing, I'd do that.

I could see a number of teams being interested in Kessel without any qualms about taking a bad deal along with him, maybe not even perceiving Johnson as having negative value. Teams with young cores that need a punch of offense to get over the next hump, and have cap room, like Arizona or Vancouver.

I have a better chance of winning the lottery than JR does of pawning off Kessel and Johnson on a team WITHOUT retaining or taking back a bad contract. :laugh:
 

ChaosAgent

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May 8, 2018
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It's not really a "fantasy" when it seems pretty likely that the Penguins trade Kessel sometime in the next 3 years :dunno:

I'd say next 6 months, honestly.

And if in this process JR is offered a "slightly better Rust" for <$4M/year and holds onto Kessel at $6.8M instead...that would be almost JJ-level bad.
 
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Gurglesons

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I like Schultz plenty, but I don't have faith in him being able to slide into a a spot on the left half boards without the Pens missing a beat. Kessel isn't some afterthought there. Whatever his other foibles, he's our best PP player and the 2nd most productive PP player in the league over the last 2.5 years.

I'm adamant that I wouldn't want to see Kessel leave without getting an elite winger like Skinner or Stone to replace him. If we simply want to add another top 6 winger, there are various ways to do that without parting with an elite winger on a great deal. We have draft picks, prospects, and a ton of other players who aren't living up to their contracts. I'd exhaust every possibility involving those before entertaining a deal where we move Kessel just to get Zucker.

It would be Letang taking Kessel’s spot on the PP.
 

Gurglesons

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Then I think the PP is weighted far too lightly. There isn't a minor difference between Kessel and Zucker on the PP, it's night and day.

Kessel's been the most productive player on our PP. You can't just replace your best PP player and expect no significant dropoff if you throw Bjugstad or someone of that calibre in his place. That really undervalues what Kessel does out there.
The difference is that Kessel excels on the PP because of Crosby and Malkin. Much like Neal did.

We’ve seen the PP without Kessel it functions fine.

And let’s be honest. Kessel is the worst in terms of taking wide shots and bad passes that kills our PP.
 

Empoleon8771

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I like Schultz plenty, but I don't have faith in him being able to slide into a a spot on the left half boards without the Pens missing a beat. Kessel isn't some afterthought there. Whatever his other foibles, he's our best PP player and the 2nd most productive PP player in the league over the last 2.5 years.

I'm adamant that I wouldn't want to see Kessel leave without getting an elite winger like Skinner or Stone to replace him. If we simply want to add another top 6 winger, there are various ways to do that without parting with an elite winger on a great deal. We have draft picks, prospects, and a ton of other players who aren't living up to their contracts. I'd exhaust every possibility involving those before entertaining a deal where we move Kessel just to get Zucker.

Schultz wouldn't, Letang would. Schultz would be the PPQB on that top unit and Letang would be in Kessel's spot, which is a role he has had success in before. It's a similar setup to what the Penguins had when Gonchar and Letang were both on the Penguins.

You don't need an elite winger to replace Kessel, that's just the point that people here are making. If you get someone who can put up 40 ES points, generate chances and bring something else to the table (like defensive ability, speed, puck retrieval and such), you're getting more out of them at ES than you've gotten out of Kessel. At that point, it depends on how the Schultz/Letang PP unit does, which I don't have any reason to doubt.
 
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madinsomniac

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Jul 3, 2012
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Schultz wouldn't, Letang would. Schultz would be the PPQB on that top unit and Letang would be in Kessel's spot, which is a role he has had success in before. It's a similar setup to what the Penguins had when Gonchar and Letang were both on the Penguins.

You don't need an elite winger to replace Kessel, that's just the point that people here are making. If you get someone who can put up 40 ES points, generate chances and bring something else to the table (like defensive ability, speed, puck retrieval and such), you're getting more out of them at ES than you've gotten out of Kessel. At that point, it depends on how the Schultz/Letang PP unit does, which I don't have any reason to doubt.

This is flawed thinking because again you are only looking at production and not the fact that teams have to gameplan for Kessel every shift because he is extremely dangerous at any given time... no one is planning for rust. Nobody cares about the really good players... everyone has them...
the staff knows this which is why they keep trying to put kessel on a third line when they can, and why they tolerate his floating during the regular season...

If they trade him for an elite defenseman thats great but then they fundamentally have to change how they play cause most of the forwards on this team think offense first too often... if they want to play balls to the walls offense, they cannot do that without another guy that’s dangerous all over the ice...

The bottom line is Kessel isn’t going to be a cap dump or traded for prospects or picks... unless of course it is a three way deal to bring in another dynamic player...

This is the window the pens have, and they cannot be trading high end players for bit players in bulk... or picks... their best bet is to run this group into the ground, trade or retire older Sid and Malkin in several years, and totally rebuild through the draft
 
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Empoleon8771

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This is flawed thinking because again you are only looking at production and not the fact that teams have to gameplan for Kessel every shift because he is extremely dangerous at any given time... no one is planning for rust. Nobody cares about the really good players... everyone has them...
the staff knows this which is why they keep trying to put kessel on a third line when they can, and why they tolerate his floating during the regular season...

If they trade him for an elite defenseman thats great but then they fundamentally have to change how they play cause most of the forwards on this team think offense first too often... if they want to play balls to the walls offense, they cannot do that without another guy that’s dangerous all over the ice...

The bottom line is Kessel isn’t going to be a cap dump or traded for prospects or picks... unless of course it is a three way deal to bring in another dynamic player...

This is the window the pens have, and they cannot be trading high end players for bit players in bulk... or picks... their best bet is to run this group into the ground, trade or retire older Sid and Malkin in several years, and totally rebuild through the draft

Based on what does every team "gameplan for Kessel every shift"? That just seems to be you making an assumption and passing it off as fact. I wouldn't imagine teams would "gameplan" for Kessel anymore than they would "gameplan" for guys like Skinner or Radulov.

Kessel is a complementary piece, I think some people overrate him into being more than that.
 

trooper66

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Jun 28, 2008
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Wonder what the oilers would want for Jesse Puljujarvi?

They are up against the cap pretty bad. This guy has had a lot of potential and could be interesting to see what he could do on this team. He is only 20 so most likely would take a full year or so for him to get the pens system.
 

Shady Machine

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Aug 6, 2010
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Based on what does every team "gameplan for Kessel every shift"? That just seems to be you making an assumption and passing it off as fact. I wouldn't imagine teams would "gameplan" for Kessel anymore than they would "gameplan" for guys like Skinner or Radulov.

Kessel is a complementary piece, I think some people overrate him into being more than that.

I think we have a different definition of a complimentary piece.
 
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WayneSid9987

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Nov 24, 2009
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Wonder what the oilers would want for Jesse Puljujarvi?

They are up against the cap pretty bad. This guy has had a lot of potential and could be interesting to see what he could do on this team. He is only 20 so most likely would take a full year or so for him to get the pens system.

Theres a post on the trade board saying the price is very high.
 
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