Salary Cap: Salary Cap + Roster Building (Cap Details in First Post) | Turning Pages

[Empoleon8771]

But faceoffs are especially important on the PP. And Rust still kind of sucks on the powerplay.

Guentzel isn't a NHL caliber center (at least one you'd be comfortable with), but he's not bad on faceoffs. He was right at 50% through his first 2 years and is at about 48% over his career. You don't need to be a NHL caliber center to be good on faceoffs.

what is the discussion then? You were dismissing Bonino's powerplay production, so I'm pointing out that Bonino is better than Sheahan on the powerplay. This is exactly the discussion.

The discussion is that you can't compare raw offensive numbers of 2 guys who weren't used in the same offensive roles. I don't even know why this needs to be discussed, that's insanely basic logic and just including the bear minimum of context. That's why ES numbers are such a big deal among fans.

There is no stats. I actually watch the teams. Pageau was 100% used as a winger as late as 16-17. Faksa was put on the second line in Dallas at various times as well.

So basically, you have an opinion that goes against the stats, and you're right because you think you're right? Just so we're clear.

Maybe he was used as a winger like Brassard has been used like a winger here in the games you saw, but that doesn't make him a winger. That makes him a center who was playing wing in the game you watched.

If you think Nick Bonino’s stats are as bad as Jack Johnson’s, like usual you’re dead wrong.

You legitimately used the argument of "GMs think Bonino is good, so he's good". I am just truly amazed how you don't see the hypocrisy here. Like it's just amazing that you can't see this. Stick to stats to defend Bonino, as soon as you start bringing up crap like "GMs think he's good" or intangibles, you're being a hypocrite because of how you attacked people who defended Johnson in that way.

 

[Riptide]

I don’t think it was unrealistic at all. We got Brassard to provide a 3rd scoring line. We gave him Kessel to do that. He also got to play on the 2nd PP with good players like Guentzel and Schultz. It is not like we put him with plugs.

If Brassard can’t produce 45 points with those players then we need to find someone who can. I don’t want Kessel on a line that is producing 3rd line numbers. The purpose of Brassard was to make 3 balanced lines. We should of tried for Eric Staal back then instead of Brassard. Although I honestly thought Brassard would be better than this and thought his production was down because of Sens system. He was one of the Rangers top 2 scorers before playing for the Sens. I really thought Brassard had a chance to get back to that 50-60 point range of his Ranger days. Playing with Kessel and Pearson he should be able to produce.

Would really depend on his PP production. I mean if he could put up 30/33 ES points and 12/15 PP points, there's your 45 points. But I think people need to understand that that's still really pushing things as far as production goes. We just do not really put our 3c into positions to succeed like that. I don't think people understand how rare the production we got from Sheahan was last season (even if propped up by Kessel+). Sure Brassard won't get the extreme DZ starts that RS did, but to play at a 30+ ES pt pace when seeing 33% zone starts only happened by a handful of player's last season.

Personally anything over 40pts (or on pace for such) is fine. But the idea that he could get to 50/60 points playing as the 3c was an absurd one. Sorry, but that was an extremely unrealistic expectation for him.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Guentzel isn't a NHL caliber center (at least one you'd be comfortable with), but he's not bad on faceoffs. He was right at 50% through his first 2 years and is at about 48% over his career. You don't need to be a NHL caliber center to be good on faceoffs.

Fair enough I guess.

The discussion is that you can't compare raw offensive numbers of 2 guys who weren't used in the same offensive roles. I don't even know why this needs to be discussed, that's insanely basic logic and just including the bear minimum of context. That's why ES numbers are such a big deal among fans.

Yes you can. You just need to consider why they are used in different roles. In this case, Bonino is used on the powerplay because he's good on the powerplay. Sheahan isn't used on the powerplay because he's not as good at it. Well, wasn't. At this point it's obvious with Brassard. But before Brassard got here, he was still not used on the PP. That's not an unfair advantage for Bonino that needs to be ignored, it's an earned advantage for Bonino that should be factored in to what he adds to his team.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I think that's my problem with Sheahan. His only game with heart this year was the Washington game. Where is that Riley? Why can't he bring that on a consistent basis? I don't even think he had a point that game and I can honestly say that was his absolute best game in a Pens sweater.

And that's why Brass not producing at a high rate is disappointing because he doesn't bring much else other than possible offensive production.

Yeah I’m the same with Sheahan. I appreciated what he did for us last season. He produced well but too many times I’d see a timid player. I think the IQ is there as a player but he holds back. Whether it’s not taking that extra stride to intercept a pass in the D zone that would lead to a breakaway or not going in hard on the forecheck and just being stuck in no mans land while not taking out a player. Also for a big guy he should be able to crash the net pretty good but he just doesn’t do these things because something in his head is holding him back.

Brassard has to be a mental thing too. He’s a really smart player even at the start of this year he was making the right plays forcing it to the right areas. A lot of our players were dog**** early on so that effected his production and flow. Now though he’s not doing the smart plays. He might turn it around but JR will have to monitor how he fits too (in regards to the previous points you’ve brought up).

JR won’t shy away from making deals we “lose” in trade value but come out with a better fit. That could be the case with Brassard but I think he’ll be patient.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Bonino doesn't have good stats though, unless we have different definitions of "good". They're fine 3C numbers.

he does. They aren't superstar stats, but they are good. You look at them and think "yeah, that's a pretty good player." Whereas with Johnson if you just look at stats you see a train wreck

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes you can. You just need to consider why they are used in different roles. In this case, Bonino is used on the powerplay because he's good on the powerplay. Sheahan isn't used on the powerplay because he's not as good at it. Well, wasn't. At this point it's obvious with Brassard. But before Brassard got here, he was still not used on the PP. That's not an unfair advantage for Bonino that needs to be ignored, it's an earned advantage for Bonino that should be factored in to what he adds to his team.

It's a lot more complicated than "Bonino was used on the powerplay because he's a lot better on the powerplay", it's not as simple as you're making it out to be. Brandon Sutter got regular powerplay minutes with the Penguins, was that because he was good on the powerplay or the Penguins had **** options outside of him? Sheahan used to be good on the powerplay too, he was really effective early in his career there.

I'm not dismissing Bonino being a good powerplay player, because he is. It's not relevant to my point, which is it's unfair to compare raw offensive totals of 2 guys used in 2 different roles. You can fairly say why Bonino got those extra powerplay minutes and powerplay production, but it's still not fair to compare overall production to someone who didn't get that opportunity. It's like comparing Guentzel's overall numbers to Nylander's overall numbers, Guentzel didn't get to play a ton of powerplay minutes with Auston Matthews.

he does. They aren't superstar stats, but they are good. You look at them and think "yeah, that's a pretty good player." Whereas with Johnson if you just look at stats you see a train wreck

Meh, averaging like 25-30 ES points a season isn't really something I get all hyped up about. It's what Sutter and Sheahan did. His offensive numbers aren't that impressive overall, he had that 1 good season when he was Anaheim's 2C and put up a bunch of powerplay points, but he has just been meh otherwise.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

I know ES scoring is important, but can we point out that Sheahan doesn't get PP time because he sucks at the PP, while Bonino does get PP because he doesn't suck on the PP? Those points still count.

This really isn't true, Sheahan was solid on the PP for the Wings early in his career, when he got PP time there. He had a higher G/60 than Bonino for their careers, though a lower P/60 (less assists). The players are pretty comparable on the PP.

Bonino: 1.34 G/60, 3.12 P/60
Sheahan: 1.39 G/60, 2.91 P/60

Sheahan just has too many centers ahead of him here.

 

[Nakawick]

People are using stats to say Kucherov is better than Sid ffs.

 

[Ogrezilla]

It's a lot more complicated than "Bonino was used on the powerplay because he's a lot better on the powerplay", it's not as simple as you're making it out to be. Brandon Sutter got regular powerplay minutes with the Penguins, was that because he was good on the powerplay or the Penguins had **** options outside of him?

The Penguins had shit options. Another reason why Brandon Sutter wasn't a good 3C for us.

I'm not dismissing Bonino being a good powerplay player, because he is. It's not relevant to my point, which is it's unfair to compare raw offensive totals of 2 guys used in 2 different roles. You can fairly say why Bonino got those extra powerplay minutes and powerplay production, but it's still not fair to compare overall production to someone who didn't get that opportunity.

No offense meant, but if that's your point, I think it's a dumb point. How can you ignore the reasons they are given different roles? When Bryan Rust is on the powerplay over you, YOU are a shit option.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sheahan just has too many centers ahead of him here.

I think that's a part of it. I think both of "he's a crappy powerplay player" and "there were a lot of better options ahead of him" are true here. Sheahan was good on the powerplay early in his career, but he had 13 points the season before and only had 7 PP points in the 2 previous years while getting PP time.

 

[Ogrezilla]

This really isn't true, Sheahan was solid on the PP for the Wings early in his career, when he got PP time there. He had a higher G/60 than Bonino for their careers, though a lower P/60 (less assists). The players are pretty comparable on the PP.

Bonino: 1.34 G/60, 3.12 P/60
Sheahan: 1.39 G/60, 2.91 P/60

Sheahan just has too many centers ahead of him here.

Sheahan wasn't playing(or if he was playing he wasn't producing) on our powerplay even when our centers were Sid, Geno, Sheahan, and Rowney. Rust was on the PP over him, with Guentzel playing center.

Sheahan was a lot of things early in his career that he hasn't seemed to be since. Maybe he can get it back, but he hasn't yet. Also, Bonino still outscored Sheahan in those stats, and his are over a much longer time, probably spread across a few different teams.

 

[Tom Hanks]

People are using stats to say Kucherov is better than Sid ffs.

Ask them who they’d take in a knockout playoff game. For me it’s Sid over anyone in the league still.

 

[Nakawick]

Ask them who they’d take in a knockout playoff game. For me it’s Sid over anyone in the league still.

Pretty much what I said to them. But these guys and their stats man,...

 

[Riptide]

Like what was said last night, it's not just about total points. Personally, I want one of 3 players for the 3C spot:

1. Someone who doesn't bring much defensive strength, but someone who meshes with Kessel and produces like a 2C in a 3C role while playing with Kessel. If my 3C isn't strong defensively, I want him to be producing at ridiculous levels, something like 45-50 points with about 40 ES points.
2. Someone who is a defensive and possession monster that can a part of a grinding shutdown line. This is kinda like what Sheahan was last year, but someone who can get around 30 points a year with heavy Dzone usage and while playing with guys like Simon, Rust and Hornqvist. Radek Faksa is a perfect example of this, he had 33 points last year (all at ES) while playing with guys like Janmark, Roussel and Pitlick with a 33.4% offensive zone start%.
3. A faster and less streaky version of Bonino. Basically someone who is good both defensive and offensively for a 3C, so you can use them in either an offensive role (like the HBK line) or a defensive role, that fits the system better and is much more consistent.

You can come up with quite a few 3Cs for each of those categories. For #3, guys like Danault, Tierney and Jarnkrok fit that. For #2, you have Pageau, Faksa and Bjugstad. For #1, you're looking at offensive 2nd line centers like Brassard. Even a 2013 version of Gagner would fit #1.

Personally I'm only all that interested in the latter two. I think trying to find the first one would cost too much and be too hit-and-miss (as evidenced by Brassard). And then it comes at the cost of putting Crosby/Malkin back into the DZ more often.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Penguins had **** options. Another reason why Brandon Sutter wasn't a good 3C for us.

Why can't you apply it to 2017-2018 that the Penguins had good options then? I don't know why you're so vividly against this. The Penguins always use 2 defensemen on their 2nd unit, that's just what they've always done. That leaves 3 forwards on the 2nd unit, 2 of which were going to be Guentzel and Sheary. You also added Brassard later in the season, who was guaranteed to be on that 2nd unit.

No offense meant, but if that's your point, I think it's a dumb point. How can you ignore the reasons they are given different roles when? When Bryan Rust is on the powerplay over you, YOU are a **** option.

No, it's a completely logical point to make and it's a point that everyone uses. That's why people only look at ES numbers when comparing a lot of players. It's why PP numbers aren't included in advanced stats.

I also don't know why you're saying Rust is some terrible powerplay player. I have never seen that to be a problem with him. He played 53 minutes on the powerplay last season and the Penguins had 5 powerplay goals with him on the ice. He had 2 goals and 4 points on those 5 goals. His PP points/60 (4.52) was only a little worse than Guentzel's (4.97), and Guentzel got time on the top PP unit. Even Sheahan wasn't bad on the powerplay last year, he played 23:22 on the powerplay last year and he had 2 PP points on 3 PP goals.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Why can't you apply it to 2017-2018 that the Penguins had good options then? I don't know why you're so vividly against this. The Penguins always use 2 defensemen on their 2nd unit, that's just what they've always done. That leaves 3 forwards on the 2nd unit, 2 of which were going to be Guentzel and Sheary. You also added Brassard later in the season, who was guaranteed to be on that 2nd unit.

Once we brought in Brassard, yeah. But why did we bring in Brassard again?

No, it's a completely logical point to make and it's a point that everyone uses. That's why people only look at ES numbers when comparing a lot of players. It's why PP numbers aren't included in advanced stats.

I'm sorry but no. There are times where you need to factor in this stuff. Dismissing the point total difference between them is just silly when the opportunity to take the same role on our powerplay was available to both, but only one took it. Bonino in 16-17 was up against the same exact players as Sheahan was in 17-18 for that spot up until we traded for Brassard.

 

[Riptide]

There's a difference between Guentzel or Kessel vs Guentzel and Kessel. Bones had to be the #2 on that line, while Sheahan was the 3rd wheel.

Not downplaying what Sheahan did otherwise, as Rip pointed out yesterday was better than I remembered.

I really wish there was a way for NST to sort by a date range. All we really have is our memory and some raw stats (who assisted on who's goals, TOI, etc). But all of those still leave you with an unclear picture.

 

[Gurglesons]

So basically, you have an opinion that goes against the stats, and you're right because you think you're right? Just so we're clear.

Maybe he was used as a winger like Brassard has been used like a winger here in the games you saw, but that doesn't make him a winger. That makes him a center who was playing wing in the game you watched.

Jean-gabriel Pageau - Frozen Tools

Go take a look for yourself.

In 16-17 and 17-18 he spent time with Pyatt and Smith at center on the LW.

You’d know that if you watched any games outside the Penguins as per usual.

Faksa has played with Pitlick in Spezza.

I dunno. Maybe you should watch games and stop stat watching as a be all and end all.

 

[Nakawick]

I have lots of leash for Brassard, he is our 3rd best center and he can play LW if needed or as Sully chooses. We can still do Sheahan and Cullen or Grant as our centers if we move Brassard to wing. If we move Brassard for say Silfverberg or someone comparable, we would be losing that versatility.

 

[Riptide]

Bjugstad is a winger. Pageau and Faksa are younger players. You’re essentially comparing what players did in their prime with a player in his late 20s and early 30s.

Bonino put up 49 and 39 when he was 25ish. The same age as most of these players you and Rip are listing.

And he did it as a #2C (Vancouver) and as a 2/3c (Anaheim) who was stapled to their #1PP.

There is a reason Poile the GM many see as the best GM in the league picked him up. He’s a great player.

Yes, because they had one #1C (RyJo) and then a bunch of #3Cs in Fisher, Jarnkrok and Sissons. They never had a #2C when they signed Bonino. And in the limited time he had before getting hurt, that's how he was being used - as Nashville's #2C. Then they went and acquired Turris.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Once we brought in Brassard, yeah. But why did we bring in Brassard again?

Because Rutherford was greedy and made a bad decision.

I'm sorry but no. There are times where you need to factor in this stuff. Dismissing the point total difference between them is just silly when the opportunity to take the same role on our powerplay was available to both, but only one took it. Bonino in 16-17 was up against the same exact players as Sheahan was in 17-18 for that spot up until we traded for Brassard.

But he wasn't. Guentzel wasn't in the NHL for half of the season in 2016-2017, who was Bonino's prime competition for PP time. He also wasn't as established as he was entering last season. Sheahan had to go against a full season of Guentzel, plus JR got greedy and added Brassard. You also had skilled guys like Simon and Sprong (in the limited sample they were up) that took away ice time from Sheahan that Bonino didn't have to deal with.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Sheahan wasn't playing(or if he was playing he wasn't producing) on our powerplay even when our centers were Sid, Geno, Sheahan, and Rowney. Rust was on the PP over him, with Guentzel playing center.

Guentzel is a tremendous offensive player, better than both Bonino and Sheahan.

But that's neither here nor there for me, I'm just looking at the statistical data to determine if the players can take make use of the opportunities given them. And I can see no basis to determine that Bonino or Sheahan are much different offensively when given similar linemates and opportunity as a defensively-deployed 3C. And this makes sense, regardless of offensive skill, it's very hard to produce as a defensive 3C. Look at the difference in Duchene from 15-16 to 16-17 when his deployment was dramatically changed.

The big question to me is if Sheahan could take advantage of skating with good linemates and given offensive opportunities ala Bonino in the Spring of 2016. There's data and tape to suggest it's possible, but the jury will remain out until we see it.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I have lots of leash for Brassard, he is our 3rd best center and he can play LW if needed or as Sully chooses. We can still do Sheahan and Cullen or Grant as our centers if we move Brassard to wing. If we move Brassard for say Silfverberg or someone comparable, we would be losing that versatility.

It would depend on the trade or end game before the deadline. Brassard won’t be back so if we could make a deal that helps us now and in future seasons it’s worth exploring. He hasn’t hasn’t been good enough not to explore.

 

[Gurglesons]

And he did it as a #2C (Vancouver) and as a 2/3c (Anaheim) who was stapled to their #1PP.

Ok? Pageau had a career year in 15-16. When 25% of his ice time was interchangeable on Smith’s wing or with Smith with Stone on the other side. Almost like he was getting 2nd line ice time.. go look at Pageau’s ice time from January to April. He was typically grabbing 18-20 minutes.

Other than that none of those players has broken 35 points yet or again.

 

[Riptide]

I know ES scoring is important, but can we point out that Sheahan doesn't get PP time because he sucks at the PP, while Bonino does get PP because he doesn't suck on the PP? Those points still count.

I think it only becomes an issue if you don't have someone else who can center the #2PP while still filling it with quality players. And when comparing different players in different roles, ES vs PP points are important to separate. But yes that's absolutely a limitation that Sheahan has, where Bonino was significantly better.

Judging by the way you and Rip try to shade him, he’s going to be getting a 4 mil contract with term next year.

Who?