I like comparing Poehling to McCarron. Both had poor offensive stats in their draft year, but Poehling improved whereas McCarron put up poor offensive stats in his post draft season as well. I was initially skeptical of the Poehling pick but really like how its looking now.
McCarron did not make the US team as a 18 year old or 19 year old. Poehling has way more upside IMO. He has all 3 (Size, Skating, Skill). McCarron had size and average skill but his skating is not the best.
Like I said before... the development in the 12 months after being drafted (age 17-18) is critical. Some show potential later than this but most impact players prove their worth right away. The draft is age 17 and under and the development at age 18 and 19 is huge. You find out pretty quick weather they will be impact NHL players, 4th line players, or not even NHL players.
Lets look at Ikonen. Rumors at the time of being drafted was he will play with Frolunda in the SHL but we quickly learned he was not good enough and was sent to KalPa on loan to develop. I am waiting to see what he can do at the U20 tournament with Findland. But his 6pts in 29 games are not a great start with KalPa.