Speculation: Ryan O'Reilly : Money-Money-Money-Money...Mo-ney!! Thread #6

[Bender]

He's never been a prolific scorer at any level.

Was Ryan Kesler? Personally I feel Kesler could be a #1 guy on half a dozen teams in the NHL.

RoR was essentially a PPG guy in the OHL as a 17-18 year old before he was drafted. Had he been sent back, it's very likely he would have improved on the 66 pts in 68 gp he put up that season.

What about Patrice Bergeron? He put up 73 pts in 70 gp when he was a 17-18 year before being drafted, then made the NHL. Sounds familiar.

I'm not saying he's going to put up 80-90 points but I don't think 70 is out of the question. To be quite honest, I would take the guy who plays the game the way RoR and Bergeron do AND put up 65-70 points per year than the guy who just plays offence and puts up 90....but that's just me, I guess.

 

[Freudian]

There is a talent ceiling that everyone has to abide by, even the hardest of workers. For O'Reilly it may very well be 55 points, it may be 65-70 points. It's unlikely but not completely out of the question that he indeed did overachieve offensively last year and will settle down as a 45-50 point guy.

I think PPG is out of his reach. He just doesn't have enough talent to produce at that level. His hands/coordination/vision/creativity etc will never be good enough.

 

[henchman21]

Was Ryan Kesler? Personally I feel Kesler could be a #1 guy on half a dozen teams in the NHL.

RoR was essentially a PPG guy in the OHL as a 17-18 year old before he was drafted. Had he been sent back, it's very likely he would have improved on the 66 pts in 68 gp he put up that season.

What about Patrice Bergeron? He put up 73 pts in 70 gp when he was a 17-18 year before being drafted, then made the NHL. Sounds familiar.

I'm not saying he's going to put up 80-90 points but I don't think 70 is out of the question. To be quite honest, I would take the guy who plays the game the way RoR and Bergeron do AND put up 65-70 points per year than the guy who just plays offence and puts up 90....but that's just me, I guess.

Bergeron hasn't put up 65+ since 06-07 when the NHL was a higher scoring league. IMO Bergeron now is the most comparable player to ROR's potential. An elite #2c with elite defense. The problem is that ROR hasn't proven he can even play at that level yet, but he expects to be paid like it. If he came back next season and put up 60 points, then he would be worth every dollar he is asking for, but if he only scores 45-50, he is worth the 3.5m the Avs are offering.

 

[Bordeleau Of Blood]

It seems like the organization and fans, unfortunately, feel the same way. Outsiders watch O'Reilly and fall in love with him, yet those closest to the situation continue to think he's a fluke. That's fine, he has been called a fluke and an overachiever at every level he's played. "Too weak." "Skating isn't good enough." "No shot." All he does is exceed expectations.

I am sure many teams will love having the 50 point, perennial Selke candidate guy down the middle for them. You win Stanley Cups with players like Ryan O'Reilly.

Don't forget character. He has a lot of character. Character is important. Character is worth lots of money. Character.

 

[Punished ROR]

I guess we can go around and around on this, but there isn't a single comparable out there that anyone can point to that shows the deal the Avs have offered is anything but fair.

I've gone on record as saying I thought the deal was fair. I also think it's totally fair for O'Reilly to try to negotiate for more.

The Avs have a contract structure they want to abide by, fine -- I get it. I'm also hesitant to give young players huge contracts.

But you have to ask yourself how much faith you have in their structure. Do you have enough faith in it that you're totally cool with the Avs not allowing any room for negotiating whatsoever, and basically demanding that their RFAs "sign here or get bent"?

For all the people talking about what a "bad precedent" it would set if they gave O'Reilly $250k or $500k more -- what about the precedent being set that they are ruthless, arrogant negotiators? And that if you don't like your contract offer, you can just sit out and be traded to a team with enough common sense to actually negotiate with its core players?

It's not like the Avs are some kind of beacon of fiscal responsibility or whatever -- this is the team that just shelled out $4M per for 4 years for David Jones and PA Parenteau. How much you want to bet at least one of those contracts is going to be an albatross by the end of its term?

If the result of playing hardball with Ryan O'Reilly and forcing him out is that we can continue to vastly overpay for UFAs ... no thanks. O'Reilly is a special talent, and I would have much rather seen him be offered that $4M than one of those guys. But hey, whatever, it's not my team to run into the ground.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

It seems like the organization and fans, unfortunately, feel the same way.

I guess I don't think the organization feels that way. Seems to me that they just want him to prove it over more than one year before they give him the money he's asking for, like Dutch and EJ are doing.

 

[Bonzai12]

I think it's hilarious that you guys blame all of Stastny's shortcoming on his 1st line wingers, but O'Reilly can't hit 70 on a 2nd or 3rd line because of his own talent.

 

[CalderKing21]

What's really funny is how much guys around here were speculating O'Reilly would get paid (hint: $4-5M). Amazingly, after Duchene signed his "prove-it" contract and O'Reilly wanted to negotiate for more, $3.5M became an "overpayment" that ROR should be so thankful to be offered!

that's nonsense even before the Duchene contract. wow, now if Duchene had signed for 5-6 mil then yeah 4 mil would have been fine i suppose. still an overpayment but it would make more sense.

 

[Crisp Breakout]

That's fine, he has been called a fluke and an overachiever at every level he's played. "Too weak." "Skating isn't good enough." "No shot." All he does is exceed expectations.

At every level? He was drafted over Hall and Duchene for the OHL. I don't think he's a fluke, but he doesn't have the top gear that earns the 5x5 paycheck on the second contract.

 

[dahrougem2]

I don't see many 55 point, 21 year old, 3rd line centremen around the league, but that might just be me...

I apologize if I saw a two time 26 point centre, who just happened to play with Gabe Landeskog last season, who just happened to be given 1st line treatment because of Duchene's struggles last season. As of right now, he is a 3rd line centre who had one good season.

You're telling me Ryan O'Reilly will be used more if he were to sign tomorrow playing on a line with John Mitchell/Cody McLeod and Milan Hejduk/Aaron Palushaj? Because he certainly would not get the luxury of playing with McGinn, Parenteau, Landeskog, or Jones (though Jones sucks); he would be the 3rd line centre on this team and I don't see him unseating Duchene, nor do I see Stastny playing on the 3rd line.

You can bring up his 55 point season all you want and then tell me that his first two seasons he didn't get any PP time or was playing more on the PK or that he was so young; I get that, I agree, but I stated that he is a 3C with 2C potential; on this team, I don't see him reaching that potential

Edit: Unless of course Stastny is moved/walks when he hits UFA status

 

[Bender]

There is a talent ceiling that everyone has to abide by, even the hardest of workers. For O'Reilly it may very well be 55 points, it may be 65-70 points. It's unlikely but not completely out of the question that he indeed did overachieve offensively last year and will settle down as a 45-50 point guy.

I think PPG is out of his reach. He just doesn't have enough talent to produce at that level. His hands/coordination/vision/creativity etc will never be good enough.

I don't necessarily agree. This makes it sound like he's got average talent and creativity and 90% of his points are because of hard work. I personally don't believe that's the case at all.

I remember watching him his draft year and I was really impressed with him and put him in my top 30 (24th). This wasn't because of hard work but because of overall hockey smarts.

This is the same as applying this 'everyone has a ceiling' theory to Zdeno Chara back in 2001-02 and basically saying, he just doesn't have the offense to be a top pairing guy.

1999-00 New York Islanders NHL 65gp 2g 9a 11pts
2000-01 New York Islanders NHL 82gp 2g 7a 9pts
2001-02 Ottawa Senators NHL 75gp 10g 13a 23pts
2002-03 Ottawa Senators NHL 74gp 9g 30a 39pts
2003-04 Ottawa Senators NHL 79gp 16g 25a 41pts
2004-05 Farjestads BK Karlstad SEL 33gp 10g 15a 25pts
2005-06 Ottawa Senators NHL 71gp 16g 27a 43pts
2006-07 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 11g 32a 43pts
2007-08 Boston Bruins NHL 77gp 17g 34a 51pts
2008-09 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 19g 31a 50pts
2009-10 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 7g 37a 44pts
2010-11 Boston Bruins NHL 81gp 14g 30a 44pts
2011-12 Boston Bruins NHL 79gp 12g 40a 52pts
2012-13 Boston Bruins NHL 15gp 3g 5a 8pts

Everyone would have agreed with you on Chara back then too.

 

[bohlmeister]

This saga is going to hit 7 threads. Likely 20 before he gets moved.

 

[Pokecheque]

I apologize if I saw a two time 26 point centre, who just happened to play with Gabe Landeskog last season, who just happened to be given 1st line treatment because of Duchene's struggles last season. As of right now, he is a 3rd line centre who had one good season.

You're telling me Ryan O'Reilly will be used more if he were to sign tomorrow playing on a line with John Mitchell/Cody McLeod and Milan Hejduk/Aaron Palushaj? Because he certainly would not get the luxury of playing with McGinn, Parenteau, Landeskog, or Jones (though Jones sucks); he would be the 3rd line centre on this team and I don't see him unseating Duchene, nor do I see Stastny playing on the 3rd line.

You can bring up his 55 point season all you want and then tell me that his first two seasons he didn't get any PP time or was playing more on the PK or that he was so young; I get that, I agree, but I stated that he is a 3C with 2C potential; on this team, I don't see him reaching that potential

Oh, I'm positive he'd be reunited with Landy tomorrow if Sacco had an ounce of sense.

You're selling the kid short--yes, he did benefit from more ice time and being paired with a hotshot rookie. But he also scored those points while also tasked with shutting down the opposition's top lines and taking a majority of defensive zone draws. It's not as if Sacco sheltered the kid like you do a lot of top line players.

He has the potential to be a legit top line center in this league. It's okay to question that, it's true that we've only seen one breakout season, but it was a hell of a season for a kid who's not yet 23. I think it's at least safe to say he's way more than a 3rd liner though.

Honestly if he were to come back tomorrow I'd try a line of Landeskog - O'Reilly - Stastny and see what happens. Yes, I realize that could be a slow line, but I'd be curious to see Stazz back at the wing and possibly being the setup guy for O'Reilly's one-timer, which keeps getting better and better.

But I suppose that's a pipe dream. O'Reilly's not playing again for the Avs.

 

[Freudian]

I don't necessarily agree. This makes it sound like he's got average talent and creativity and 90% of his points are because of hard work. I personally don't believe that's the case at all.

I remember watching him his draft year and I was really impressed with him and put him in my top 30 (24th). This wasn't because of hard work but because of overall hockey smarts.

This is the same as applying this 'everyone has a ceiling' theory to Zdeno Chara back in 2001-02 and basically saying, he just doesn't have the offense to be a top pairing guy.

1999-00 New York Islanders NHL 65gp 2g 9a 11pts
2000-01 New York Islanders NHL 82gp 2g 7a 9pts
2001-02 Ottawa Senators NHL 75gp 10g 13a 23pts
2002-03 Ottawa Senators NHL 74gp 9g 30a 39pts
2003-04 Ottawa Senators NHL 79gp 16g 25a 41pts
2004-05 Farjestads BK Karlstad SEL 33gp 10g 15a 25pts
2005-06 Ottawa Senators NHL 71gp 16g 27a 43pts
2006-07 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 11g 32a 43pts
2007-08 Boston Bruins NHL 77gp 17g 34a 51pts
2008-09 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 19g 31a 50pts
2009-10 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 7g 37a 44pts
2010-11 Boston Bruins NHL 81gp 14g 30a 44pts
2011-12 Boston Bruins NHL 79gp 12g 40a 52pts
2012-13 Boston Bruins NHL 15gp 3g 5a 8pts

Everyone would have agreed with you on Chara back then too.

First of all, Chara is a completely different case since it was as much getting comfortable in that massive frame. He basically had to add a lot of muscle to get the coordination necessary. That took years and there was no way of getting around it.

Secondly, I'd argue that Chara's offensive ceiling is that of a forward hitting 65 points. Chara can put up 50 points on an excellent team where he gets all the best PP time and so on. A pure offensive guy like Green and Karlsson can put up 80 points in the same situation.

Third, of course O'Reilly has talent. He just has less of it compared to guys like Tavares and Duchene. Tavares has perhaps a ceiling of 110 points and Duchene at 90p.

 

[dahrougem2]

Oh, I'm positive he'd be reunited with Landy tomorrow if Sacco had an ounce of sense.

You're selling the kid short--yes, he did benefit from more ice time and being paired with a hotshot rookie. But he also scored those points while also tasked with shutting down the opposition's top lines and taking a majority of defensive zone draws. It's not as if Sacco sheltered the kid like you do a lot of top line players.

He has the potential to be a legit top line center in this league. It's okay to question that, it's true that we've only seen one breakout season, but it was a hell of a season for a kid who's not yet 23. I think it's at least safe to say he's way more than a 3rd liner though.

Honestly if he were to come back tomorrow I'd try a line of Landeskog - O'Reilly - Stastny and see what happens. Yes, I realize that could be a slow line, but I'd be curious to see Stazz back at the wing and possibly being the setup guy for O'Reilly's one-timer, which keeps getting better and better.

But I suppose that's a pipe dream. O'Reilly's not playing again for the Avs.

I'm not selling him short at all. I said he has 2C potential but right now, its just that, potential. Just like Duchene has 1C potential, but the difference is he is proving to everyone that he can be a legitimate 1C with his play this season; If O'Reilly wanted to prove to people he deserves the money then he should have signed a contract.

Say this goes on for another two weeks hypothetically, and in that time Landeskog and Stastny find great chemistry with one another. I wouldn't break up that line just because O'Reilly signs. I'd play O'Reilly on the 3rd line because he is undeserving of top line treatment at this point.

Traded, he gets the opportunity (barring the team's centre depth being insane) to become a 2C and maybe, just maybe a 1C but that's not going to happen on this team

 

[S E P H]

This saga is going to hit 7 threads. Likely 20 before he gets moved.

Gotta increase our overall post count to compete against the likes of Canadian teams.

 

[shadow1]

All he does is exceed expectations.

Including salary expectations.

 

[bohlmeister]

Including salary expectations.

 

[CalderKing21]

I don't necessarily agree. This makes it sound like he's got average talent and creativity and 90% of his points are because of hard work. I personally don't believe that's the case at all.

I remember watching him his draft year and I was really impressed with him and put him in my top 30 (24th). This wasn't because of hard work but because of overall hockey smarts.

This is the same as applying this 'everyone has a ceiling' theory to Zdeno Chara back in 2001-02 and basically saying, he just doesn't have the offense to be a top pairing guy.

1999-00 New York Islanders NHL 65gp 2g 9a 11pts
2000-01 New York Islanders NHL 82gp 2g 7a 9pts
2001-02 Ottawa Senators NHL 75gp 10g 13a 23pts
2002-03 Ottawa Senators NHL 74gp 9g 30a 39pts
2003-04 Ottawa Senators NHL 79gp 16g 25a 41pts
2004-05 Farjestads BK Karlstad SEL 33gp 10g 15a 25pts
2005-06 Ottawa Senators NHL 71gp 16g 27a 43pts
2006-07 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 11g 32a 43pts
2007-08 Boston Bruins NHL 77gp 17g 34a 51pts
2008-09 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 19g 31a 50pts
2009-10 Boston Bruins NHL 80gp 7g 37a 44pts
2010-11 Boston Bruins NHL 81gp 14g 30a 44pts
2011-12 Boston Bruins NHL 79gp 12g 40a 52pts
2012-13 Boston Bruins NHL 15gp 3g 5a 8pts

Everyone would have agreed with you on Chara back then too.

you're missing the point i was making. he's got great grit,hustle,work ethic. he grinds and does all the little things you want.
but he has yet to really ascend to that next level of the contract that he is seeking.
there is no comparison to him and Chara, different player, different style, different frame and D men take longer to develop.

he is not as naturally talented as Duchene,Lando or even EJ.
he's got a bunch of top qualities and he'll never get outworked.
but to justify the demands he's making it requires him to start playing at a future franchise super star level. he's not that, his developmental curve doesn't show him as becoming that either.
now if he were to come out next season and put up 25 goals, 50 assists and have a huge defensive year then yeah he is clearly on that track.
he has yet to flash the superstar potential his demands require is what i was getting at. now saying he's not talented, just that his talents and current production don't warrant his demands.

look at Benn from the Stars(not comparing styles, just seasons and potential contract value). 3 20 goal seasons, 40 pts, 50 pts, 60 pts. flashed superstar potential and got rewarded with the contract. 14 pts in 14 games this season.
ROR doesn't have a single 20 goal season to his credit as of yet, but he wants 5 mil a year to eat into UFA time? come on now.

 

[Nzap]

I've gone on record as saying I thought the deal was fair. I also think it's totally fair for O'Reilly to try to negotiate for more.

The Avs have a contract structure they want to abide by, fine -- I get it. I'm also hesitant to give young players huge contracts.

But you have to ask yourself how much faith you have in their structure. Do you have enough faith in it that you're totally cool with (1.)the Avs not allowing any room for negotiating whatsoever, and basically demanding that their RFAs "sign here or get bent"?

(2.)For all the people talking about what a "bad precedent" it would set if they gave O'Reilly $250k or $500k more -- what about the precedent being set that they are ruthless, arrogant negotiators? And that if you don't like your contract offer, you can just sit out and be traded to a (3.)team with enough common sense to actually negotiate with its core players?

It's not like the Avs are some kind of beacon of fiscal responsibility or whatever -- this is the team that just shelled out $4M per for 4 years for David Jones and PA Parenteau. How much you want to bet at least one of those contracts is going to be an albatross by the end of its term?

(4.)If the result of playing hardball with Ryan O'Reilly and forcing him out is that we can continue to vastly overpay for UFAs ... no thanks. (5.)O'Reilly is a special talent, and I would have much rather seen him be offered that $4M than one of those guys. But hey, whatever, it's not my team to run into the ground.

Okay many things to answer here:

1. I seriously doubt Avs said right of the bat "we have two options; 5y/17 and 2y/3.5". That would've been absolutely idiotic cause O'Reilly still isn't worth that much. I would assume the Avs started below 3mil and worked themselves up to those numbers through negotiating. Sign here or get bent? O'Reilly doesn't get bent by 2y/3.5mil. Jeez...

2. I doubt O'Reilly would sign even with 2y/4mil. And he isn't worth that money. Why would Avs overpay to set bad precedent (and yes they would do that by offering him that). The Avs would basically say "take lower money if you like the team, but you know you'll get more if you want to".

3. Wait what? New news for me that Avs haven't negotiated with Johnson, Duchene, Downie, McGinn, Wilson. They were lucky then they signed those contracts.... And extra lucky with McGinn and Wilson since they decided not to go to the arbitration hearing despite asking for it. What could've possibly changed their minds? You know it might start with "negot.." from the Avs part.

4. Oh for crying out loud, offering a 2y/3.5mil deal isn't playing hardball. That is already a fricking overpayment. At least O'Reilly didn't play hardball himself.... oh wait....

5. O'Reilly is a freaking RFA and that is meant to keep the salaries down and let teams keep their core players for at least some time. O'Reilly wants to change that and if you want it to change, then of course that's your opinion. I don't want to see these moneyhunters get piss in their heads with having UFA at 21years.

And BTW I don't think anyone would've liked to see O'Reilly getting 5mil/year (well of course TPS, but as a friend of O'Reillys that's perfectly normal). I thought a 5y/15mil deal was very fair. Check it up if you want. The only numbers that were talked here which were even close to 4mil or just over were for very long contracts before the new CBA took care of that.

 

[Huis Clos*]

Was Ryan Kesler? Personally I feel Kesler could be a #1 guy on half a dozen teams in the NHL.

RoR was essentially a PPG guy in the OHL as a 17-18 year old before he was drafted. Had he been sent back, it's very likely he would have improved on the 66 pts in 68 gp he put up that season.

What about Patrice Bergeron? He put up 73 pts in 70 gp when he was a 17-18 year before being drafted, then made the NHL. Sounds familiar.

I'm not saying he's going to put up 80-90 points but I don't think 70 is out of the question. To be quite honest, I would take the guy who plays the game the way RoR and Bergeron do AND put up 65-70 points per year than the guy who just plays offence and puts up 90....but that's just me, I guess.

I believe that players in the NHL that are top six caliber were the same way if not better at lower levels. The guys that were average to good scoring players that come to the NHL and do the same or better are the exception not the rule.

 

[Foppa2118]

What's really funny is how much guys around here were speculating O'Reilly would get paid (hint: $4-5M). Amazingly, after Duchene signed his "prove-it" contract and O'Reilly wanted to negotiate for more, $3.5M became an "overpayment" that ROR should be so thankful to be offered!

You made up this part. Nobody thinks $3.5M is an overpayment for him.

You can come up with all the reasons you want to like he's exceeded expectations at every level, or whatever you wants to say. Nothing justifies holding out as a 21 year old with a combined 52 points your first two seasons, and insisting they pay you like a 25 year old that has had numerous 55 point seasons.

Insisting they pay you on faith at that age is ridiculous, whether he becomes what he says or not. You're coming off your ELC as a 2nd round two way forward. You're not a friggin rock star, just sign a fair $3.5M per contract and prove your worth like everyone else.

 

[Nzap]

You made up this part. Nobody thinks $3.5M is an overpayment for him.

You can come up with all the reasons you want to like he's exceeded expectations at every level, or whatever you wants to say. Nothing justifies holding out as a 21 year old with a combined 52 points your first two seasons, and insisting they pay you like a 25 year old that has had numerous 55 point seasons.

Insisting they pay you on faith at that age is ridiculous, whether he becomes what he says or not. You're coming off your ELC as a 2nd round two way forward. You're not a friggin rock star, just sign a fair $3.5M per contract and prove your worth like everyone else.

I do. But don't get me wrong, I'm willing to give him that despite of it.

 

[AnimalMother73]

Question

There are many posts saying O'Reilly is the type of player that wins Cups.

I'm curious, in all seriousness, how many star players that have held out due to a significant contract dispute- one that led to a trade or full season lost, have ended up winning a championship?

The obvious example that comes to mind is Lindros, who got close but didn't make it to the finish line. Any others?

Sorry if this has already been answered.

 

[ABasin]

Probably an irrelevant argument, but I see no way that Sherman keeps his job. Not getting into the playoffs for 4 straight years would directly lead to Sakic being the GM of this team.

I disagree. If Sherman gets canned, PL's son will get the GM job.