did RNH **** your mom or something? cause i dont understand why you continue to argue after being proven wrong over and over again.
Ladies and Gentleman: who is the rational one?
30% points from Goals players: drafted in the first round Last 20 years.
Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Stefan, Ninimaki, Gagner.
So 5 of the 7 were busts. the other two had high expected nhl production based on NCAA ppg and CHL PPG.
What occured with all is they got to the NHL and produced at only half of the expected nhl production.
Kariyas NCAA PPG said he should be a 2.7PPG player in the super elite range. He produced half. But a 1.4ppg player is well generational.
Gagner 2.22PPG in CHL said he should be a 1.6PPG player in the NHL. he is currently at .7PPG and should trend to .8PPG around a 60-65PT player.
All the rest were busts.
RNH a 30% Goals guy has 1.55ppg which says he should be a .9PPG player which takes him into the 70-75PT range. but as a 30% guy they have historically only generated half.
Now you tell me how a player:
1. who is lighter and the same speed as gagner
2. at an older age in the dtraft year,
3.who did not dominate a super series like gagner
4. had only 70% of gagner production in draft year
is going to be a better player than Gagner.
Not Likely!
the game is won by scoring goals. the hockey development system recognizes goal scoring and advances those type of players to the higher development teams. the 30% guys are gradually weeded out. However low goal scoring elite play makers advance to the higher league levels.
These skills really translate well on the PP in junior and NCAA. But the PP score rates in the CHL and NCAA do not translate to nhl. therefore you avoid players who get there points from PP. A 2/3EV Pt to 1/3PPpt ratio.
you do not risk #1 on this group. Ryan Strome is this type of player.
On the other side of the spectrum 50% players with a expected nhl production of .8 to .85ppg or greater. Grab them fast!
2011: Ritchie (50%) Armia (62%)
2010: Hall(50%) Skinner(55%)
2009: Tavares (50%) E. Kane (50%)
2008: Stamkos (55%)
2007: Perron (48%) (.82PPG)
2006: Toews (56%)
2004: None at 50% but the two best 42% Crosby, Ryan
2004: Ovechkin (56%)
2003: Vanek (50%)
2002: Nash (47%)
2001: Kovolchuk (60%) D Roy (52%) 32nd RD2
2000: Heatley (50%)
I included ritchie since he was sick first half of this draft year and his CHL PPG was bellow his 16 year season. Last half CHL PPG rate indicates a NHL PPG equal to Hall. If he is healthy all season he is top 5.
There is a risk worth drafting.
RNH and Strome no thanks!