Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton Oilers

Scouter

Registered User
Oct 21, 2007
4,764
192
Being as light as he is at his height and given that his skating speed and agility are nothing special, he's going to be relatively easy to knock off the puck. That, the fact that most of his points came on the PP, and the fact that he is ineffective in traffic are all good reasons why people think RNH has high bust potential.

1. You can say the same thing about Strome and many other teens who haven't yet got a mans body.

2. They are actually better than most, just maybe you don't realize it.

3. Who says, how do you know, as far as I know he has been pretty strong on it.

4. I'm not sure if that's true, but even if it is does he need to be, does every player need to be, obviously not.
 

R S

Registered User
Sep 18, 2006
25,468
10
What a gongshow this thread has turned into, mostly bc of one guy. I will stick to my guns and avoid RNH threads, just like I have over the last 2 months.

I made my opinions clear all winter on what I thought of him and have no need to voice my high opinions of him over and over like I was then.
 

YEGJuniorFan

Registered User
Dec 3, 2009
3,253
158
Edmonton
Maybe because he reminds people of Kyle Turris?

which is fine I can see why he reminds some people of Turris but you have to remember Turris played in lower skilled league at 17 and still was not as dominant as RNH was in the WHL. Im starting to think people are just mad they arent picking number 1
 

Scouter

Registered User
Oct 21, 2007
4,764
192
He's very effective when he has time and space. He's not effective when he's got guys on him. His release is very slow, so his shot is completely ineffective if he doesn't have the time to settle the puck on his stick. That makes it very easy for goalies to react. For someone with the dangles that he has, you'd expect him to be good at altering his release point, but he doesn't do that very well either.

When there's traffic, he tends to avoid it. That'll cause him to be a perimeter players in the NHL, because there will always be traffic and he won't have the time and space that he needs to be effective at the NHL level.



People love to talk about frame, but he doesn't have a frame that will be able to pack on much more weight. He's naturally skinny. And even if he were able to pack on some weight, it would cost him in terms of his skating speed and agility, things that aren't strengths as it is.

Given that there are reasons to believe that he won't pack on much more weight, you have to ask yourself whether you'd rather have a 6'1" 170lb guy or a 5'8" 170lb guy. All else being equal, you obviously take the shorter guy because his center of gravity is lower and he'll be harder to knock off the puck.

You have to wonder how RNH's confidence will be when he's making highlight reels not for his offense but because he's getting decimated by 6'3" 225lb D.

1. You must be watching a different player, because this is just not true.

2. Once again I don't think this is true.

3. I don't think this is really true, even if it is it doesn't mean he will be that way in the NHL, many players have changed before.

4. How do you know he won't be able to pack on weight, he will be able to add more muscle as he gets older, it's the same for most everyone, he just has a teen's body right now, and packing on weight does not mean that he will lose abilities.

5. I don't think he will be getting decimated like Tavares or Skinner has.
 
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Scouter

Registered User
Oct 21, 2007
4,764
192
Not even close. Rocco Grimaldi obviously earns that title by a landslide margin. Beyond that, Austin Czarnik, Tomas Jurco, Lino Martschni, Daniel Catenacci, JG Pageau, Ryan Strome, Ryan Murphy, Shane McColgan, Matt Nieto and Alex Khokhlachev all blow RNH out of the water in terms of agility, and that's just off the top of my head.

Just because Grimaldi is maybe lighter and smaller does not mean he is more agile, don't get them confused.
 
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oilerbear

Registered User
Jun 2, 2008
3,168
199
For me, I defend RNH more as a huge RNH fan than an Oiler fan. Sure, the fact the Oilers could very well draft him magnifies it, but I've been a huge fan of him since I saw him live for the first time 2 years ago, and I will back him hard even if we don't draft him, meanwhile praying the guy we take is still better :laugh:

Fan: Derivative Fanatic: marked by excessive enthusiasm and often intense uncritical devotion
 

Homesick

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Aug 2, 2005
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which is fine I can see why he reminds some people of Turris but you have to remember Turris played in lower skilled league at 17 and still was not as dominant as RNH was in the WHL. Im starting to think people are just mad they arent picking number 1
Same thing happened last year with the Hall debate. Same thing happened the year before when Islanders fans were told they should be taking Hedman over Tavares.

I'm surprised that no one has posted this yet.
 

arsmaster*

Guest
What a gongshow this thread has turned into, mostly bc of one guy. I will stick to my guns and avoid RNH threads, just like I have over the last 2 months.

I made my opinions clear all winter on what I thought of him and have no need to voice my high opinions of him over and over like I was then.

I tried to do this.
 

oilerbear

Registered User
Jun 2, 2008
3,168
199
did RNH **** your mom or something? cause i dont understand why you continue to argue after being proven wrong over and over again.

Ladies and Gentleman: who is the rational one?

30% points from Goals players: drafted in the first round Last 20 years.
Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Stefan, Ninimaki, Gagner.

So 5 of the 7 were busts. the other two had high expected nhl production based on NCAA ppg and CHL PPG.

What occured with all is they got to the NHL and produced at only half of the expected nhl production.

Kariyas NCAA PPG said he should be a 2.7PPG player in the super elite range. He produced half. But a 1.4ppg player is well generational.

Gagner 2.22PPG in CHL said he should be a 1.6PPG player in the NHL. he is currently at .7PPG and should trend to .8PPG around a 60-65PT player.

All the rest were busts.

RNH a 30% Goals guy has 1.55ppg which says he should be a .9PPG player which takes him into the 70-75PT range. but as a 30% guy they have historically only generated half.

Now you tell me how a player:
1. who is lighter and the same speed as gagner
2. at an older age in the dtraft year,
3.who did not dominate a super series like gagner
4. had only 70% of gagner production in draft year
is going to be a better player than Gagner.

Not Likely!

the game is won by scoring goals. the hockey development system recognizes goal scoring and advances those type of players to the higher development teams. the 30% guys are gradually weeded out. However low goal scoring elite play makers advance to the higher league levels.

These skills really translate well on the PP in junior and NCAA. But the PP score rates in the CHL and NCAA do not translate to nhl. therefore you avoid players who get there points from PP. A 2/3EV Pt to 1/3PPpt ratio.

you do not risk #1 on this group. Ryan Strome is this type of player.

On the other side of the spectrum 50% players with a expected nhl production of .8 to .85ppg or greater. Grab them fast!

2011: Ritchie (50%) Armia (62%)
2010: Hall(50%) Skinner(55%)
2009: Tavares (50%) E. Kane (50%)
2008: Stamkos (55%)
2007: Perron (48%) (.82PPG)
2006: Toews (56%)
2004: None at 50% but the two best 42% Crosby, Ryan
2004: Ovechkin (56%)
2003: Vanek (50%)
2002: Nash (47%)
2001: Kovolchuk (60%) D Roy (52%) 32nd RD2
2000: Heatley (50%)

I included ritchie since he was sick first half of this draft year and his CHL PPG was bellow his 16 year season. Last half CHL PPG rate indicates a NHL PPG equal to Hall. If he is healthy all season he is top 5.

There is a risk worth drafting.

RNH and Strome no thanks!
 

Homesick

HFBoards Sponsor
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Aug 2, 2005
17,088
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Calgary
Ladies and Gentleman: who is the rational one?

30% points from Goals players: drafted in the first round Last 20 years.
Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Stefan, Ninimaki, Gagner.

So 5 of the 7 were busts. the other two had high expected nhl production based on NCAA ppg and CHL PPG.

What occured with all is they got to the NHL and produced at only half of the expected nhl production.

Kariyas NCAA PPG said he should be a 2.7PPG player in the super elite range. He produced half. But a 1.4ppg player is well generational.

Gagner 2.22PPG in CHL said he should be a 1.6PPG player in the NHL. he is currently at .7PPG and should trend to .8PPG around a 60-65PT player.

All the rest were busts.

RNH a 30% Goals guy has 1.55ppg which says he should be a .9PPG player which takes him into the 70-75PT range. but as a 30% guy they have historically only generated half.

Now you tell me how a player:
1. who is lighter and the same speed as gagner
2. at an older age in the dtraft year,
3.who did not dominate a super series like gagner
4. had only 70% of gagner production in draft year
is going to be a better player than Gagner.

Not Likely!

the game is won by scoring goals. the hockey development system recognizes goal scoring and advances those type of players to the higher development teams. the 30% guys are gradually weeded out. However low goal scoring elite play makers advance to the higher league levels.

These skills really translate well on the PP in junior and NCAA. But the PP score rates in the CHL and NCAA do not translate to nhl. therefore you avoid players who get there points from PP. A 2/3EV Pt to 1/3PPpt ratio.

you do not risk #1 on this group. Ryan Strome is this type of player.

On the other side of the spectrum 50% players with a expected nhl production of .8 to .85ppg or greater. Grab them fast!

2011: Ritchie (50%) Armia (62%)
2010: Hall(50%) Skinner(55%)
2009: Tavares (50%) E. Kane (50%)
2008: Stamkos (55%)
2007: Perron (48%) (.82PPG)
2006: Toews (56%)
2004: None at 50% but the two best 42% Crosby, Ryan
2004: Ovechkin (56%)
2003: Vanek (50%)
2002: Nash (47%)
2001: Kovolchuk (60%) D Roy (52%) 32nd RD2
2000: Heatley (50%)

I included ritchie since he was sick first half of this draft year and his CHL PPG was bellow his 16 year season. Last half CHL PPG rate indicates a NHL PPG equal to Hall. If he is healthy all season he is top 5.

There is a risk worth drafting.

RNH and Strome no thanks!
I'll take the pro's opinion:shakehead So many other variables to consider. Leagues, teammates, coaches, ect
 

CantHaveTkachev

Legends
Nov 30, 2004
49,452
29,189
St. OILbert, AB
Ladies and Gentleman: who is the rational one?

30% points from Goals players: drafted in the first round Last 20 years.
Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Stefan, Ninimaki, Gagner.

So 5 of the 7 were busts. the other two had high expected nhl production based on NCAA ppg and CHL PPG.

What occured with all is they got to the NHL and produced at only half of the expected nhl production.

Kariyas NCAA PPG said he should be a 2.7PPG player in the super elite range. He produced half. But a 1.4ppg player is well generational.

Gagner 2.22PPG in CHL said he should be a 1.6PPG player in the NHL. he is currently at .7PPG and should trend to .8PPG around a 60-65PT player.

All the rest were busts.

RNH a 30% Goals guy has 1.55ppg which says he should be a .9PPG player which takes him into the 70-75PT range. but as a 30% guy they have historically only generated half.

Now you tell me how a player:
1. who is lighter and the same speed as gagner
2. at an older age in the dtraft year,
3.who did not dominate a super series like gagner
4. had only 70% of gagner production in draft year
is going to be a better player than Gagner.

Not Likely!

the game is won by scoring goals. the hockey development system recognizes goal scoring and advances those type of players to the higher development teams. the 30% guys are gradually weeded out. However low goal scoring elite play makers advance to the higher league levels.

These skills really translate well on the PP in junior and NCAA. But the PP score rates in the CHL and NCAA do not translate to nhl. therefore you avoid players who get there points from PP. A 2/3EV Pt to 1/3PPpt ratio.

you do not risk #1 on this group. Ryan Strome is this type of player.

On the other side of the spectrum 50% players with a expected nhl production of .8 to .85ppg or greater. Grab them fast!

2011: Ritchie (50%) Armia (62%)
2010: Hall(50%) Skinner(55%)
2009: Tavares (50%) E. Kane (50%)
2008: Stamkos (55%)
2007: Perron (48%) (.82PPG)
2006: Toews (56%)
2004: None at 50% but the two best 42% Crosby, Ryan
2004: Ovechkin (56%)
2003: Vanek (50%)
2002: Nash (47%)
2001: Kovolchuk (60%) D Roy (52%) 32nd RD2
2000: Heatley (50%)

I included ritchie since he was sick first half of this draft year and his CHL PPG was bellow his 16 year season. Last half CHL PPG rate indicates a NHL PPG equal to Hall. If he is healthy all season he is top 5.

There is a risk worth drafting.

RNH and Strome no thanks!

Brad Richards: 28.7% in his draft year

that Conn Smythe winner sucks
 

Jabba11

Hockey Lobby
Nov 28, 2009
6,650
3,303
hockeylobby.blogspot.com
which is fine I can see why he reminds some people of Turris but you have to remember Turris played in lower skilled league at 17 and still was not as dominant as RNH was in the WHL. Im starting to think people are just mad they arent picking number 1

RNH wasn't as dominant as Kane was in the OHL so you can't compare RNH to him. The only thing why people try to compare him to Kane is that he's small and light weighted. But, RNH and Kane are two completely different players. Kane is a sniper and speedy forward as RNH is more of a dangler and playmaker. As for Turris, yes I knew he was playing in the BCHL but player for player comparison, RNH reminds me of him. As for your last statement, I know you are maybe an Oilers fan, but keep it humble here, I'm glad you guys are picking 1st overall yet again, but if I were to choose, I would even consider more Sean Couturier, Jonathan Huberdeau, Adam Larsson and Gabriel Landeskog before RNH. IMO, RNH is too hyped.
 

ian09

Registered User
Dec 6, 2010
39
0
Canada
RNH wasn't as dominant as Kane was in the OHL so you can't compare RNH to him. The only thing why people try to compare him to Kane is that he's small and light weighted. But, RNH and Kane are two completely different players. Kane is a sniper and speedy forward as RNH is more of a dangler and playmaker. As for Turris, yes I knew he was playing in the BCHL but player for player comparison, RNH reminds me of him. As for your last statement, I know you are maybe an Oilers fan, but keep it humble here, I'm glad you guys are picking 1st overall yet again, but if I were to choose, I would even consider more Sean Couturier, Jonathan Huberdeau, Adam Larsson and Gabriel Landeskog before RNH. IMO, RNH is too hyped.

I wouldnt consider kane as a speedster imo
 

McIce Whole

Registered User
Jan 7, 2008
6,399
1,324
Edmonton
RNH wasn't as dominant as Kane was in the OHL so you can't compare RNH to him. The only thing why people try to compare him to Kane is that he's small and light weighted. But, RNH and Kane are two completely different players. Kane is a sniper and speedy forward as RNH is more of a dangler and playmaker. As for Turris, yes I knew he was playing in the BCHL but player for player comparison, RNH reminds me of him. As for your last statement, I know you are maybe an Oilers fan, but keep it humble here, I'm glad you guys are picking 1st overall yet again, but if I were to choose, I would even consider more Sean Couturier, Jonathan Huberdeau, Adam Larsson and Gabriel Landeskog before RNH. IMO, RNH is too hyped.

Kane isn't a sniper. He is a playmaker. Secondly, the reason why RNH and Kane are being compared is because both are playmakers who aren't the fastest guys in the world but are quick and agile. That's what makes them special and they have the ability to avoid hits because of that and there vision. They can make a play and then avoid the hit and that's what makes them so special.
 

BigD66

Registered User
Mar 24, 2009
434
0
Red Deer, Alberta
Same thing happened last year with the Hall debate. Same thing happened the year before when Islanders fans were told they should be taking Hedman over Tavares.

I'm surprised that no one has posted this yet.

Thanks for the vid. Hadn't seen that yet. Man if I didn't know Landeskog was Swedish I would swear he was a good ol' Canadian boy, his English is so good.

This thread is getting out of hand, it seems like some people haven't even seen RNH play yet seem to act like experts on him.
 

Scouter

Registered User
Oct 21, 2007
4,764
192
Ladies and Gentleman: who is the rational one?

30% points from Goals players: drafted in the first round Last 20 years.
Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Stefan, Ninimaki, Gagner.

So 5 of the 7 were busts. the other two had high expected nhl production based on NCAA ppg and CHL PPG.

What occured with all is they got to the NHL and produced at only half of the expected nhl production.

Kariyas NCAA PPG said he should be a 2.7PPG player in the super elite range. He produced half. But a 1.4ppg player is well generational.

Gagner 2.22PPG in CHL said he should be a 1.6PPG player in the NHL. he is currently at .7PPG and should trend to .8PPG around a 60-65PT player.

All the rest were busts.

RNH a 30% Goals guy has 1.55ppg which says he should be a .9PPG player which takes him into the 70-75PT range. but as a 30% guy they have historically only generated half.

Now you tell me how a player:
1. who is lighter and the same speed as gagner
2. at an older age in the dtraft year,
3.who did not dominate a super series like gagner
4. had only 70% of gagner production in draft year
is going to be a better player than Gagner.

Not Likely!

the game is won by scoring goals. the hockey development system recognizes goal scoring and advances those type of players to the higher development teams. the 30% guys are gradually weeded out. However low goal scoring elite play makers advance to the higher league levels.

These skills really translate well on the PP in junior and NCAA. But the PP score rates in the CHL and NCAA do not translate to nhl. therefore you avoid players who get there points from PP. A 2/3EV Pt to 1/3PPpt ratio.

you do not risk #1 on this group. Ryan Strome is this type of player.

On the other side of the spectrum 50% players with a expected nhl production of .8 to .85ppg or greater. Grab them fast!

2011: Ritchie (50%) Armia (62%)
2010: Hall(50%) Skinner(55%)
2009: Tavares (50%) E. Kane (50%)
2008: Stamkos (55%)
2007: Perron (48%) (.82PPG)
2006: Toews (56%)
2004: None at 50% but the two best 42% Crosby, Ryan
2004: Ovechkin (56%)
2003: Vanek (50%)
2002: Nash (47%)
2001: Kovolchuk (60%) D Roy (52%) 32nd RD2
2000: Heatley (50%)

I included ritchie since he was sick first half of this draft year and his CHL PPG was bellow his 16 year season. Last half CHL PPG rate indicates a NHL PPG equal to Hall. If he is healthy all season he is top 5.

There is a risk worth drafting.

RNH and Strome no thanks!

And where exactly did you come up with those numbers, because I don't think they compute.
 

Scouter

Registered User
Oct 21, 2007
4,764
192
Thanks for the vid. Hadn't seen that yet. Man if I didn't know Landeskog was Swedish I would swear he was a good ol' Canadian boy, his English is so good.

This thread is getting out of hand, it seems like some people haven't even seen RNH play yet seem to act like experts on him.

Yeah, especially BCB who says junk about his weight, when going by that vid totally confirms it is not true, I think he is just saying these things for a reaction.
 
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SDig14

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
12,029
1,143
Edmonton, AB
What a gongshow this thread has turned into, mostly bc of one guy. I will stick to my guns and avoid RNH threads, just like I have over the last 2 months.

I made my opinions clear all winter on what I thought of him and have no need to voice my high opinions of him over and over like I was then.

:laugh: Well, I haven't posted in an RNH thread, other than the Oilers draft thread, for about a month and a half. However, I got reading it and then got caught feeding the problem.
 

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