Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton Oilers

[CupofOil]

Because he is skinny (which won't be a big issue for him at the next level imo) and he's not a prolific goal scorer like the previous #1's. That's about all that i can think of.
Also, i don't wanna hear the "majority of his points are on the PP" argument. His Even Strength PPG scoring is right up there with some of the past #1's so he's not a PP specialist like some seem to think.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Which is ridiculous because when he fills out he'll be about 6'1 185.

Exactly. But, people see a player that weighs a little less than usual or is a few inches shorter than the average player and think "OMGZ!!!11 BuST@!!@!".

 

[OilerTyler]

I'm concerned about his lackluster numbers at even strength

 

[Jabba11]

Maybe because he reminds people of Kyle Turris?

 

[Wheatking]

He's very effective when he has time and space. He's not effective when he's got guys on him. His release is very slow, so his shot is completely ineffective if he doesn't have the time to settle the puck on his stick. That makes it very easy for goalies to react. For someone with the dangles that he has, you'd expect him to be good at altering his release point, but he doesn't do that very well either.

When there's traffic, he tends to avoid it. That'll cause him to be a perimeter players in the NHL, because there will always be traffic and he won't have the time and space that he needs to be effective at the NHL level.

I'll admit that I've only seen him play about 10 times(give or take) and this contradicts everything I've seen from him.

His shot is "above average" in every way. His release, speed and accuracy are all a little better than the average player. He's not going to light it up in the NHL but he has it in him to be a 25 goal scorer. He scored 18 goals in the final 22 games of the season. You don't do that with a slow release. Does he make the most out of time and space? Yes. Why does he always have so much time and space? Because he creates it for himself and line mates.

I also don't agree with the comment about him avoiding traffic. He does go to the tough areas of the ice and he doesn't avoid physical contact. That's one of the reasons why I like him more than Seguin. He's not a perimeter player at all and is much harder to play against. He reminds me of Omark. Penner outweighs Omark by about 70-80 pounds but if they went into the corner together I'd expect Omark to come away with the puck. Nugent-Hopkins is the same way. He's not big but he's not easily knocked around.

I was actually more worried about Hall handling the big players than I am RNH heading into their rookie seasons. Hall was a thick junior player that put up a lot of points because he was so much stronger than everyone else. Playing against players bigger than him was something he first experienced in the NHL. Players like RNH, Omark and Patrick Kane have learned what they have to do to be effective against bigger players because they've always been physically weaker. It's not like RNH plays a power game. He plays a thinking man's game and that's why I think the NHL will be less of shock than it was for Hall. It's also why I think Eberle was more consistent than Hall and Paajarvi from start to finish this season.

...and if you've seen the Oilers powerplay you'll agree that they could use a "point per game - powerplay specialist".

 

[arsmaster*]

He's very effective when he has time and space. He's not effective when he's got guys on him. His release is very slow, so his shot is completely ineffective if he doesn't have the time to settle the puck on his stick. That makes it very easy for goalies to react. For someone with the dangles that he has, you'd expect him to be good at altering his release point, but he doesn't do that very well either.

When there's traffic, he tends to avoid it. That'll cause him to be a perimeter players in the NHL, because there will always be traffic and he won't have the time and space that he needs to be effective at the NHL level.



People love to talk about frame, but he doesn't have a frame that will be able to pack on much more weight. He's naturally skinny. And even if he were able to pack on some weight, it would cost him in terms of his skating speed and agility, things that aren't strengths as it is.

Given that there are reasons to believe that he won't pack on much more weight, you have to ask yourself whether you'd rather have a 6'1" 170lb guy or a 5'8" 170lb guy. All else being equal, you obviously take the shorter guy because his center of gravity is lower and he'll be harder to knock off the puck.

You have to wonder how RNH's confidence will be when he's making highlight reels not for his offense but because he's getting decimated by 6'3" 225lb D.

Thanks.

I cant say I agree with your absolute statements or many of your assessments, but I commend you for providing information on you opinions.

 

[Leafs87]

Mainly his frame. Adding weight might slow him down, and playing at this weight will be hard for him

 

[Beesfan]

For the record, I doubt he will become less than a good second-line player. However, causes for concern include:

1. Weight/Strength;

2. Not dominant the year prior to draft year, thus, only one outstanding year;

3. Even strength points indicate a stronger level of play, and, as others have said, he scored a ton on the pp.

 

[Eytinge]

his skating speed and agility are nothing special

What?

He might not have elite top end speed, but his agility is superior to everyone in his draft class. Its the main reason he's so slippery, because his stop and starts are so effective.

 

[Pick Six]

Title says it all. Very few players are a slam dunk but why do people think he could be a bust? You didn't hear that about Stamkos, Tavares or Hall.

I'll leave it at that because I don't want to influence people's responses. What are the major weaknesses in his game?

Probably because during their draft years, they were much better prospects. Which shouldn't take away from RNH's potential.

 

[Nalens Oga]

Jealous that their team won't be able to pick him, his weight is not above 180 yet and he looks skinny so people like to assume that he can't play in the NHL, he isn't as clear of a number one or hasn't been the clear number one for as long as other number one draft picks, general criticism, etc.

 

[Wheatking]

Probably because during their draft years, they were much better prospects. Which shouldn't take away from RNH's potential.

Exactly but I think some people think it does. As I said in another thread, I've heard him described as better than Seguin by many people and I know from watching Seguin a lot last season, I have been more impressed by RNH at the junior level. If he is the better prospect then (on paper) that would make him the second best player to be drafted in the last two years. Maybe 2010 and 2011 only produced one potential superstar but that shouldn't take away from RNH.

If Eberle can make a career in the NHL for himself(and it looks like that's going to be the case) then so can Nugent-Hopkins. Eberle is smaller, less skilled and while he's a VERY smart player(it's what makes him so effective), he doesn't have the hockeyIQ or vision of RNH.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

I was actually more worried about Hall handling the big players than I am RNH heading into their rookie seasons. Hall was a thick junior player that put up a lot of points because he was so much stronger than everyone else. Playing against players bigger than him was something he first experienced in the NHL.

I'm far from a Hall guy. The Oilers made the wrong decision last season, without a doubt.

That said, what you're saying about Hall isn't true. Hall didn't put up points in junior because he was stronger than everyone else. I never saw him muscle anyone other than Daniel Erlich and Mike Catenacci. He had the cojones to go into the corners when he needed to, but to say that he muscled people around is simply not the case.

As for him playing against players that were bigger than he was, I guess you haven't seen the 09-10 Plymouth lineup. Barrie wasn't exactly small, either.

Hall got a lot of his points by dangling around the guys he couldn't speed past. He was very good at getting his shot off quickly while off-balance. He wasn't a power forward by any stretch of the imagination.

He does have legs like tree trunks though.

 

[McRobbiezyg]

Mainly his frame. Adding weight might slow him down, and playing at this weight will be hard for him

Wouldn't more muscle also make him quicker?

 

[jukon]

As already mentioned his ES play is a concern. Also his goal total is a little low compared to recent draft stars.

I saw someone say his goal to assist ratio is comparable to Daigle and Stefan.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Maybe his goal scoring? A lot of playmakers scored at a high rate in junior. Adam Oates was averaging maybe a 0.70 GPG before the NHL. Joe Thornton's was pretty high too. Peter Forsberg was leading his SEL team in goal scoring each year. Neither of those guys were prolific goal scorers in the NHL. Hopkins, meanwhile, just barely went over 30.

 

[Wheatking]

I'm far from a Hall guy. The Oilers made the wrong decision last season, without a doubt.

That said, what you're saying about Hall isn't true. Hall didn't put up points in junior because he was stronger than everyone else. I never saw him muscle anyone other than Daniel Erlich and Mike Catenacci. He had the cojones to go into the corners when he needed to, but to say that he muscled people around is simply not the case.

As for him playing against players that were bigger than he was, I guess you haven't seen the 09-10 Plymouth lineup. Barrie wasn't exactly small, either.

Hall got a lot of his points by dangling around the guys he couldn't speed past. He was very good at getting his shot off quickly while off-balance. He wasn't a power forward by any stretch of the imagination.

He does have legs like tree trunks though.

I'm not saying Hall was the biggest guy on the ice but yes, he was stronger than most players out there. Hall would walk out to the slot from the half wall with a winger on his back(minor exaggeration). He won the majority of his battles for the puck because he was stronger than the other player. A ton of determination didn't hurt either. In general the average player in junior isn't as big as the average player in the NHL. If there wasn't a significant difference people wouldn't be concerned about RNH.

...and for the record I watched all four games of the Windsor/Plymouth series last year and I also watched Tyler Seguin a bunch because there was a chance the Oilers may draft him.

Edit: I'm not saying Hall was a powerforward in junior but he definitely didn't need the same time and space other players needed because even if he had a player on him it didn't effect his ability to score as much as other players.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

He might not have elite top end speed, but his agility is superior to everyone in his draft class.

Not even close. Rocco Grimaldi obviously earns that title by a landslide margin. Beyond that, Austin Czarnik, Tomas Jurco, Lino Martschni, Daniel Catenacci, JG Pageau, Ryan Strome, Ryan Murphy, Shane McColgan, Matt Nieto and Alex Khokhlachev all blow RNH out of the water in terms of agility, and that's just off the top of my head.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

I'm not saying Hall was the biggest guy on the ice but yes, he was stronger than most players out there. Hall would walk out to the slot from the half wall with a winger on his back. He won the majority of his battles for the puck because he was stronger than the other player. A ton of determination didn't hurt either.

I saw Hall live last year a ton of times and never once saw him muscle anyone who wasn't smaller than he was. It's just not the style of player that he was or is. Never has been. That was pure hype.

...and for the record I watched all four games of the Windsor/Plymouth series last year and I also watched Tyler Seguin a bunch because there was a chance the Oilers may draft him.

That wasn't much of a series, other than Game 4, and I think the Oilers fans who watched that series and judged Seguin by it were badly misled by Seguin's lack of production in that series.

What you did see in that series that I thought was telling was that Hall beat Seguin on the draw almost every time. Given Hall's style and the concerns about his durability, I think the Oilers should move him to center. He has played center in the past, so it wouldn't be new to him. He'd be a lot more effective there than on the wing. He'd have to learn to play defense, but his offense would improve drastically IMO.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

Wouldn't more muscle also make him quicker?

No. If it did, NHL players would be built like NFL players.

 

[SDig14]

I'm far from a Hall guy. The Oilers made the wrong decision last season, without a doubt.
That said, what you're saying about Hall isn't true. Hall didn't put up points in junior because he was stronger than everyone else. I never saw him muscle anyone other than Daniel Erlich and Mike Catenacci. He had the cojones to go into the corners when he needed to, but to say that he muscled people around is simply not the case.

As for him playing against players that were bigger than he was, I guess you haven't seen the 09-10 Plymouth lineup. Barrie wasn't exactly small, either.

Hall got a lot of his points by dangling around the guys he couldn't speed past. He was very good at getting his shot off quickly while off-balance. He wasn't a power forward by any stretch of the imagination.

He does have legs like tree trunks though.

So far, so good. I'll gladly disagree.

Also, saying things like RNH has a "very slow" release, isn't agile, quick, or elusive is just false. Honestly, have you seen him play live before? Ever? Coming from someone who has seen him play live 7 times and about 15 times total, I don't exactly know what rationale you're using when you say things like this.

1) He goes into the corners, and many times wins puck battles against bigger players.
2) He plays with an edge that's rare in a smaller playmaker. He gets into scrums, throws some hits, and can play dirty with his stick at times.
3) Just because he holds on to the puck because he looks to pass before shoot doesn't make his release "very slow". When he does shoot, it's rarely blocked and he has a well above average release. Like someone else said, 18 goals in his last 20+ games weren't an accident. Sure, he doesn't use his shot effectively as you would like because he holds onto the puck looking to pass, but IMO you can teach someone to be more selfish with the puck.
4) I think there's a reason certain playmakers have space, which is because they create it with their skills. Defenders don't want to get beat by RNH, so they play off of him a lot, keep him to the outside, and try to take away passing lanes.

As far as agility and quickness goes, I don't really know what to say. I guess scouts and I disagree with you, because nearly everyone who has seen him play will say he is amazing when it comes to change of speed, agility, and acceleration. He doesn't have crazy high-end speed, but he plays a thinking game and you rarely ever see him at full speed.

 

[Pick Six]

Exactly but I think some people think it does. As I said in another thread, I've heard him described as better than Seguin by many people and I know from watching Seguin a lot last season, I have been more impressed by RNH at the junior level. If he is the better prospect then (on paper) that would make him the second best player to be drafted in the last two years. Maybe 2010 and 2011 only produced one potential superstar but that shouldn't take away from RNH.

If Eberle can make a career in the NHL for himself(and it looks like that's going to be the case) then so can Nugent-Hopkins. Eberle is smaller, less skilled and while he's a VERY smart player(it's what makes him so effective), he doesn't have the hockeyIQ or vision of RNH.

I agree with most of what you've said, expect for the bolded.

The jury is still out about Hall being the best player out of the draft, let alone anyone else. It's way too early to determine the outcome of the 2010 Draft.

 

[Oberyn]

I'm far from a Hall guy. The Oilers made the wrong decision last season, without a doubt.

That said, what you're saying about Hall isn't true. Hall didn't put up points in junior because he was stronger than everyone else. I never saw him muscle anyone other than Daniel Erlich and Mike Catenacci. He had the cojones to go into the corners when he needed to, but to say that he muscled people around is simply not the case.

As for him playing against players that were bigger than he was, I guess you haven't seen the 09-10 Plymouth lineup. Barrie wasn't exactly small, either.

Hall got a lot of his points by dangling around the guys he couldn't speed past. He was very good at getting his shot off quickly while off-balance. He wasn't a power forward by any stretch of the imagination.

He does have legs like tree trunks though.

Link? Just because your not a Hall guy, doesn't mean Oilers made the wrong choice, and that your opinion is always right.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

Also, saying things like RNH has a "very slow" release, isn't agile, quick, or elusive is just false. Honestly, have you seen him play live before? Ever?

I'm wondering the same thing about you.

Coming from someone who has seen him play live 7 times and about 15 times total, I don't exactly know what rationale you're using when you say things like this.

It's not rationale, it's simple observation.

As for the rest of your post, it's kind of hard to take someone seriously about a player when they have that player as their avatar.

 

[SDig14]

I saw Hall live last year a ton of times and never once saw him muscle anyone who wasn't smaller than he was. It's just not the style of player that he was or is. Never has been. That was pure hype.



That wasn't much of a series, other than Game 4, and I think the Oilers fans who watched that series and judged Seguin by it were badly misled by Seguin's lack of production in that series.

What you did see in that series that I thought was telling was that Hall beat Seguin on the draw almost every time. Given Hall's style and the concerns about his durability, I think the Oilers should move him to center. He has played center in the past, so it wouldn't be new to him. He'd be a lot more effective there than on the wing. He'd have to learn to play defense, but his offense would improve drastically IMO.

Well, Hall did play some centre this year, and was nowhere near as effective as he was on the wing. He could make the transition, but there's not much evidence so far to lead the Oilers to think he will be more effective in the middle. He's going to have size, speed, and drive going for a long time, so I think his game will be lethal on the wing.