Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton Oilers

[YNWA14]

Exactly, and that's bodybuilders on steroids, focusing only on weight gain and not cardio/explosiveness/on ice hockey skills. As you said they might gain 6 lbs a month of total weight, but more like 3 lbs a month of lean muscle.

Sure if you're still growing height wise you can put on weight faster, but most 18 year olds have been at their max height for some time. For an ectomorph like RNH, who is trying to bulk while also improving his cardio, explosiveness, skills, etc., without steroids, averaging 2 lbs a month of lean muscle gain over a summer would be a great result.

And would also mean he probably has the best genetics in the world, as most studies show that, naturally, you can't put on more than 1 - 1.5 lbs of lean muscle a month. 2 is top end.

 

[ponder]

And would also mean he probably has the best genetics in the world, as most studies show that, naturally, you can't put on more than 1 - 1.5 lbs of lean muscle a month. 2 is top end.

I'm not sure if I would go quite that far, for young men with insane genetics I wouldn't be surprised if around 5 lbs per month of lean muscle was possible to sustain for a couple months, but these would be the absolute outliers. I've talked about this before with friends who are personal trainers who have obviously trained a lot of athletes, and they seem to think that sustained gains of about 2 lbs/month of lean muscle (and more like 4 lbs/month of total weight, with this all being truthful to yourself, not lying to yourself by taking the extreme low/high weight days based on fluctuations in water/carb storage, or about how much fat you've put on) is a good upper end goal for an average guy on a heavy bulking program/diet, but one that most guys (even with very hard work, eating tonnes of calories/protein) will not be able to consistently achieve. But RNH wouldn't be just bulking, he's a hockey player, not a body builder, so he's gonna be focusing just as much on speed/quickness/explosiveness, cardio, on ice skills, etc. Plus he seems like an ectomorph too, who would be on the low, not the high end of favourable genetics for gaining muscle.

I think this is a good little writeup:

What constitutes a "challenging but realistic" goal when it comes to building muscle?

You might not like what I'm about to say, but I'm going to say it anyway. The fact is that some people have very favorable "muscle building" genetics and will see impressive results after only a few months of lifting weights. Others will build muscle more slowly. And that's just the way it is.

Yes, I know there are plenty of people running around trying to persuade you that they have "the key", be it a super-secret training program or exotic supplement- to putting on 50 pounds of muscle in [INSERT COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC TIME FRAME HERE].

Truth is, if you're just starting out lifting weights, you're doing extremely well to be gaining about 2 pounds of muscle each month, or 24 pounds over the course of a year.

Even Arnold Schwarzenegger, who combined extremely favorable genetics with an almost super-human work ethic, was very happy to out on 25 pounds in WEIGHT (not just muscle) over the course of a year. Here's what he wrote in his autobiography Arnold: The Education of a Bodybuilder...

"Many people regret having to serve in the Army. But it was not a waste of time for me. When I came out I weighed 225 pounds. I'd gone from 200 to 225. Up to that time, this was the biggest change I'd ever made in a single year."

So if Arnold says that 25 pounds was as much as he'd ever gained in one year (and not all of this was muscle), you'll be doing well just to match it, let alone beat it.

From: http://www.thefactsaboutfitness.com/building-muscle-fast/


So if 2 lbs per moth was great gains for a young Arnold Schwarzenegger, you have to think that 4 lbs a month of lean muscle mass for an ectomorph like RNH would be pretty nuts.

 

[Vincent_TheGreat]

I work and hang out with guys on juice as well. You guys seem to be misunderstanding initial muscle gain with muscle gain of a guy who has already packed on a ton of muscle.

I honestly don't understand why everyone is choosing to have reading comprehension today, because I've stated it fairly clearly. Hopkins INITIAL muscle gain will be easy for him. Once he reaches his ideal weight, putting on extra muscle will be hard.

There is no magical initial muscle gain for an athlete at 18... Your being ridiculous. I'm doubting that you even train yourself. He isn't just starting to work out now

 

[Vincent_TheGreat]

And would also mean he probably has the best genetics in the world, as most studies show that, naturally, you can't put on more than 1 - 1.5 lbs of lean muscle a month. 2 is top end.

Not necessarily. Just means right amount of nutrition at the right time, with the right amount of sleep, recovery aid and proper training regieme. Their are clear cut physical limits for 99.9% of the population, and RNH is not one of those .1%

 

[YNWA14]

Not necessarily. Just means right amount of nutrition at the right time, with the right amount of sleep, recovery aid and proper training regieme. Their are clear cut physical limits for 99.9% of the population, and RNH is not one of those .1%

This was used in the study done where the highest amount of lean muscle gained was 18 lbs iirc. Sleep, training, supplements but all natural. We aren't talking about people that weren't working out enough, or getting the proper nutrition. This is a scientist supervised study group. Now I'm sure there are people that fall outside of that range (1.5 lbs/month) of lean muscle, but for the most part everything indicates that 1 - 2 lbs of lean muscle a month is the low to top end of the vast majority of the population.

 

[Lottery Oilers*]

RNH probably will never get past 185 pounds but that doesn't mean he can't add a lot, and I mean a TON of strength.

Someone who trains in MMA, like the poster in this thread, should surely know the difference between adding useless muscle and functional strength.

Bruce Lee was pretty "slight" as well

 

[GetThePuckOut]

I work and hang out with guys on juice as well. You guys seem to be misunderstanding initial muscle gain with muscle gain of a guy who has already packed on a ton of muscle.

I honestly don't understand why everyone is choosing to have reading comprehension today, because I've stated it fairly clearly. Hopkins INITIAL muscle gain will be easy for him. Once he reaches his ideal weight, putting on extra muscle will be hard.

This is true. Another way to look at it is the law of diminishing returns; 80% of returns will come from the first 20% of effort.

Initial gains can come remarkably easy, but once that first part is over, it slows down massively and becomes the 1-2lb/mo rule.

 

[GetThePuckOut]

RNH probably will never get past 185 pounds but that doesn't mean he can't add a lot, and I mean a TON of strength.

Someone who trains in MMA, like the poster in this thread, should surely know the difference between adding useless muscle and functional strength.

Bruce Lee was pretty "slight" as well

It's good to be strong but it's also good to be heavy. When you're crashing the net or throwing a hit, it's speed x mass, and the heavier guy will be more effective.

So the weight in general is effective, making it not useless muscle.

All that said, RNH can easily get to 190lbs in a matter of 2 years, and I predict he will.

 

[RStar*]

This is true. Another way to look at it is the law of diminishing returns; 80% of returns will come from the first 20% of effort.

Initial gains can come remarkably easy, but once that first part is over, it slows down massively and becomes the 1-2lb/mo rule.

Im glad at least someone knows what they're talking about. Everyone else seems to want to compare Hopkins initial weight gain to what a 30 year old NHL vet could get spending the same amount of time in the gym.

 

[NeedMoreJam]

I think we all need to stop analyzing hopkins genetics and chances at beefing up in order to be ready for next season. The guy plays a skilled game and is exceptional at avoiding hits. If he was a power forward then these debates would hold a lot more water (pun intended).

In the fall rnh will prove whether or not he belongs. He will either adapt quickly to the speed of the nhl and his hockey iq will carry him, or he won't and will get sent back down. I think people are putting to much "weight" (baha im on a roll) into his body build when it simply isn't his game.

 

[40oz]

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the next Bruce Lee

 

[Fourier]

It's good to be strong but it's also good to be heavy. When you're crashing the net or throwing a hit, it's speed x mass, and the heavier guy will be more effective.

So the weight in general is effective, making it not useless muscle.

All that said, RNH can easily get to 190lbs in a matter of 2 years, and I predict he will.

If the Oilers draft RNH to crash the net or throw hits they are crazy. Strength will help him in things he needs to do to compement his skill set far more than mass.

 

[Lay Z Boy GM]

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the next Bruce Lee

Bruce Lee was the last Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

 

[YEGJuniorFan]

And would also mean he probably has the best genetics in the world, as most studies show that, naturally, you can't put on more than 1 - 1.5 lbs of lean muscle a month. 2 is top end.

nice to see someone who understands how muscle gains work. I got in an argument on the oiler boards with some guy who thought Sam Gagner could gain 25lbs of muscle in a summer lol

 

[JawandaPuck]

There seems to be some blanket assumption that every prospect will pack on 20 or more pounds from when they are drafted. In the same way it is assumed that weak skaters will get power skating lessons and not be weak skaters anymore.

To me, RNH seems to have a very slender frame. I'd be very surprised if he passes 190 pounds at any point.

 

[Wheatking]

Why Do Some People Think RNH Has High Bust Potential?

Title says it all. Very few players are a slam dunk but why do people think he could be a bust? You didn't hear that about Stamkos, Tavares or Hall.

I'll leave it at that because I don't want to influence people's responses. What are the major weaknesses in his game?

 

[Brewsky]

His name is too long.

Plus he's got a long stick.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Most likely, size.

 

[Freudian]

I don't think he is more likely to bust than any other of the top eight.

But I would guess the main concerns are probably his weight (and possibly problems of putting on muscle, given how he is built) and that 55% of his points came on the PP, which is very high compared to the other top forwards.

Then again, teams don't draft because they assume junior production transfers to the NHL. They draft because they see enough of the tools that enables someone to be a good NHL player in their prime.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

Being as light as he is at his height and given that his skating speed and agility are nothing special, he's going to be relatively easy to knock off the puck. That, the fact that most of his points came on the PP, and the fact that he is ineffective in traffic are all good reasons why people think RNH has high bust potential.

 

[arsmaster*]

Being as light as he is at his height and given that his skating speed and agility are nothing special, he's going to be relatively easy to knock off the puck. That, the fact that most of his points came on the PP, and the fact that he is ineffective in traffic are all good reasons why people think RNH has high bust potential.

I've seen you write this a few times now.

Could you elaborate on what you mean by this?

Thanks.

 

[Joey Moss]

Most likely, size.

Which is ridiculous because when he fills out he'll be about 6'1 185.

I think it's more his PP numbers compared to ES numbers. It's not a problem for me though, RNH is far and away the best player in this draft and should absolutely light it up with Hall and Ebs.

 

[Variant]

Being as light as he is at his height and given that his skating speed and agility are nothing special, he's going to be relatively easy to knock off the puck. That, the fact that most of his points came on the PP, and the fact that he is ineffective in traffic are all good reasons why people think RNH has high bust potential.

Agreed, what concerns me about Hopkins putting about the majority of his points on the PP is that it doesn't translate well to the NHL. Patrick Kane's power play production went from 54.4% in his draft year to 50% in 2008-09 to 32.9% last season.

Last year, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored at a clip of 0.97 ppg. This year he scored at 1.53 ppg in the regular season. It's not uncommon for junior players to have such a jump in offensive production from year to year. In fact, it's exactly the kind of progression you would want to see, but the fact that it's being largely fueled by power play production in the case of RNH would make me nervous.

Another concern with Hopkins is the fact that he is rail thin. It's very possible that he will fill out, but it's also possible that he doesn't.

 

[Gobo]

Being as light as he is at his height and given that his skating speed and agility are nothing special, he's going to be relatively easy to knock off the puck. That, the fact that most of his points came on the PP, and the fact that he is ineffective in traffic are all good reasons why people think RNH has high bust potential.

Come again?

He's pretty agile and quick from what ive seen.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

I've seen you write this a few times now.

Could you elaborate on what you mean by this?

He's very effective when he has time and space. He's not effective when he's got guys on him. His release is very slow, so his shot is completely ineffective if he doesn't have the time to settle the puck on his stick. That makes it very easy for goalies to react. For someone with the dangles that he has, you'd expect him to be good at altering his release point, but he doesn't do that very well either.

When there's traffic, he tends to avoid it. That'll cause him to be a perimeter players in the NHL, because there will always be traffic and he won't have the time and space that he needs to be effective at the NHL level.

Another concern with Hopkins is the fact that he is rail thin. It's very possible that he will fill out, but it's also possible that he doesn't.

People love to talk about frame, but he doesn't have a frame that will be able to pack on much more weight. He's naturally skinny. And even if he were able to pack on some weight, it would cost him in terms of his skating speed and agility, things that aren't strengths as it is.

Given that there are reasons to believe that he won't pack on much more weight, you have to ask yourself whether you'd rather have a 6'1" 170lb guy or a 5'8" 170lb guy. All else being equal, you obviously take the shorter guy because his center of gravity is lower and he'll be harder to knock off the puck.

You have to wonder how RNH's confidence will be when he's making highlight reels not for his offense but because he's getting decimated by 6'3" 225lb D.