Speculation: Ryan Ellis to Edmonton

herzausstein

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Aug 31, 2014
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I'm not sure the oilers would do that... when healthy and playing to their potential, they are both smart, two-way D capable of 40 points. I think Ellis has his head screwed on a little bit more tightly, but he's also older and didn't play as well as he is now when he was Klef's age.

When Ellis was Klef's age, he put up back to back 27 point seasons (albeit one was a shortened season) and was playing 16-18/night. He wasn't already on (or asked to be on) a top pairing.

Klef had a bad season by his standards, but he's still young and signed to a great contract. Why would Edmonton add a 10th pick for the purpose of moving laterally on skill, slight upgrade on consistency and experience and (presumably) add significant salary?

My guess is that it would have to be something like 10th + Benning + Bear/Jones. Gives Nash a stop gap, NHL level D (that himself still has some potential), plus a decent D prospect + a 1oth. Why do NSH downgrade in the short term? They don't unless they don't feel that they can afford Ellis... and if they do, then this is a pretty solid return. Benning can fill in and makes only $2M. Bear/Jones + 10th could make them forget Ellis in 2 years.

From a Nashville perspective, I'd do Benning + 10th overall + Jones. Benning gives a capable stopgap on the right side. The dman we pick in the 10th overall can start on the third pairing and will be expansion draft exempt should there be one coming up shortly. Benning would be our d group expansion draft fodder and the draft dman/fabbro/Jones steps in the replacement him. Saves us alot of cap allowing in the near future allowing us to keep josi while improving our forward group as well. I'd probably do this without Jones involved as well but that's because I'm cynical after the suter situation and I'm concerned about expansion draft
 

bucks_oil

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Aug 25, 2005
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From a Nashville perspective, I'd do Benning + 10th overall + Jones. Benning gives a capable stopgap on the right side. The dman we pick in the 10th overall can start on the third pairing and will be expansion draft exempt should there be one coming up shortly. Benning would be our d group expansion draft fodder and the draft dman/fabbro/Jones steps in the replacement him. Saves us alot of cap allowing in the near future allowing us to keep josi while improving our forward group as well. I'd probably do this without Jones involved as well but that's because I'm cynical after the suter situation and I'm concerned about expansion draft

Thanks... rather keep Jones too... since we will likely lose a D in any expansion draft, so yeah... (gosh... forgot about that. Just as we are building depth!)
 

herzausstein

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Aug 31, 2014
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Thanks... rather keep Jones too... since we will likely lose a D in any expansion draft, so yeah... (gosh... forgot about that. Just as we are building depth!)
Losing a dman could be a good thing if it's the right dman. You have sekera and klefbom coming back from injury. If they don't return to form, losing one of them could be good. You also have russell who I don't think would be earth shattering if you lost.
 

780il

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May 29, 2018
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As I've said it many times, if there is a deal involving the Oilers-Preds, it'll be more likely involving Ekholm and Nurse rather than Ellis. Oilers have no pieces interesting for Ellis, and Ekholm has a fantastic contract something the Oilers need. Nurse and 10th overall for Ekholm and Sissons.
That is terrible. Arvidson coming along rather than Sissons and you have a deal.
 

ChaoticOrange

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Jun 29, 2008
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As I've said it many times, if there is a deal involving the Oilers-Preds, it'll be more likely involving Ekholm and Nurse rather than Ellis. Oilers have no pieces interesting for Ellis, and Ekholm has a fantastic contract something the Oilers need. Nurse and 10th overall for Ekholm and Sissons.

Nope. Ekholm is a nice defenceman but Nurse is too. Ekholm’s career high is 35 points, he’s a left shot, and isn’t a powerplay quarterback. We need an Ellis a lot more than we need an Ekholm.

People really underrate how good Nurse was last year. I don’t think I’d add much if anything to him for Ekholm and even then all we accomplished is getting older.
 

Cayouche5

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The Oilers don't have anything to trade for Ellis really. Preds probably don't want futures and the Oilers don't have much else to offer. Drai and McDavid aren't available, Preds don't need RNH at all. I guess #10 would be interesting if Poile thought he could flip it for immediate help, but the pick itself probably isn't too valuable to him when he's 100% all-in for the cup. Seems like plenty of other teams could make better trade partners.

In the end, I think he re-signs. Preds probably have more cap space than the Oilers and they want to keep him.
 

bucks_oil

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Aug 25, 2005
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Losing a dman could be a good thing if it's the right dman. You have sekera and klefbom coming back from injury. If they don't return to form, losing one of them could be good. You also have russell who I don't think would be earth shattering if you lost.

I can't imagine a scenario where losing a $4.5M 24 year old Klefbom would be a good thing. He's barely scratching the surface IMO, at worst an Elite #3 to control the 2nd pairing for a reasonable cap. If he spiraled down from last year's performance, ok maybe... but why would anyone expect that?

Sekera and Russel I agree on... I was just thinking of a scenario where we have 4 capable #2/3 guys (Larsson, Ellis, Nurse & Klefbom) and nobody is an Elite #1, so we need that depth to compete and can only protect 3.
 

DownGoesMcDavid

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Apr 17, 2017
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Drai for Ellis would br fair .. move RNH back to 2C. And draft either Hayton or Veleno with the 10th pick
 

ManofSteel55

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Aug 15, 2013
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If the Oilers want Ellis, they should just hope to all hell that Boqvist is still on the board for them at 10. Very similar makeup. Doesn't help them for next year, but they aren't getting Ellis out of Nashville without overpaying in my opinion, he's a key piece for Nashville and there is zero reason for them to move him right now.
 

Flyerfan52

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May 3, 2012
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Nashville has 7.5 in cap space with that going to 12 when the increase becomes formal. Ellis wll get less than PK Subban's 9 but will be rewarded for the previous discount.
Nashville has years of a wide open SC window so will probably offer 7-7.5 x 5 to start. IMO Ellis is worth it.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Jun 14, 2017
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Nashville has 7.5 in cap space with that going to 12 when the increase becomes formal. Ellis wll get less than PK Subban's 9 but will be rewarded for the previous discount.
Nashville has years of a wide open SC window so will probably offer 7-7.5 x 5 to start. IMO Ellis is worth it.
Hrm... Preds (for now - before any new additions this summer) can afford Ellis at $7-7.5M buuuut.... (pretty huge "but" actually)....

I frankly don't believe he is worth that much. I mean, I like Ellis. He tries real hard and has had some good bursts off effectiveness and productivity for our team. But he's our 4th-best defenseman, bottom line. And we're going to have to sign Josi to a new contract the year after. I don't think a payroll structure that pays our #4 defender $7M makes sense... not in isolation and particularly not if by contrast that means Josi is worth $10M.

I'm offering Ellis 5-6x$6M. Maybe he can do better on the UFA market. I wouldn't be too bothered if he opted to try for that, tbh, because he's very likely on the move after that either way due to the Seattle expansion coming. I don't think we can go 4D on protections next time around. But $6M is a fair price for what he brings, IMO. It's not a "UFA premium", but if he likes it in Nashville and isn't trying to break the bank, $6M should be plenty.

Now, you could argue that if you're expecting to trade him or expose him anyway once Seattle comes on the scene, then it doesn't really matter if you sign him at a higher number in the meantime, since the Preds can afford it either way. But I still don't want to set a higher bar for Josi and Ekholm by giving the #4 guy that much money.
 

Soundgarden

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Jul 22, 2008
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With expansion coming up and our lack of prospects I could see Ellis being moved anytime between now and when he hits UFA although I wouldn't be surprised if we keep him for another shot at the cup this year.

It could go either way.
 

bukwas

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Sep 27, 2017
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Hrm... Preds (for now - before any new additions this summer) can afford Ellis at $7-7.5M buuuut.... (pretty huge "but" actually)....

I frankly don't believe he is worth that much. I mean, I like Ellis. He tries real hard and has had some good bursts off effectiveness and productivity for our team. But he's our 4th-best defenseman, bottom line. And we're going to have to sign Josi to a new contract the year after. I don't think a payroll structure that pays our #4 defender $7M makes sense... not in isolation and particularly not if by contrast that means Josi is worth $10M.

I'm offering Ellis 5-6x$6M. Maybe he can do better on the UFA market. I wouldn't be too bothered if he opted to try for that, tbh, because he's very likely on the move after that either way due to the Seattle expansion coming. I don't think we can go 4D on protections next time around. But $6M is a fair price for what he brings, IMO. It's not a "UFA premium", but if he likes it in Nashville and isn't trying to break the bank, $6M should be plenty.

Now, you could argue that if you're expecting to trade him or expose him anyway once Seattle comes on the scene, then it doesn't really matter if you sign him at a higher number in the meantime, since the Preds can afford it either way. But I still don't want to set a higher bar for Josi and Ekholm by giving the #4 guy that much money.
:thumbu:

I like Ellis too but couldn't agree more. Some of the numbers i see floated about here make me think player agents are posting.
 

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