Rumours & Trade & Free Agent Discussion 2019-2020

[Duke749]

Fun stats...

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Young defensemen that have very strong rookie years scare me. A fair amount see a decent drop in play. I’d love to know why exactly though.

 

[Whileee]

Did someone say Risto? Shot metrics are funny things, especially in small samples.

 

[Evil Little]

Young defensemen that have very strong rookie years scare me. A fair amount see a decent drop in play. I’d love to know why exactly though.

I think it's the same as the Honka dilemma. It's pretty easy to shelter a defenseman--like Honka or Postma--but you can also spoon feed them loads of PP time to get their raw totals up so they look like a future Norris guarantee. Then when they get actually moved up the lineup, there can be some growing pains.

 

[KingBogo]

After watching pionk defy what the nyr fans had to say about him, I'm starting to believe there's more to players performance than their actual tools/toolboxes. Different system, different personel around them, etc may have more to do with it than we think.

I'd take a flyer on the guy (pun intended) if the price was right. Hell, I'd do the same with risto but I realize I'm in the minority there

IMO you should be very cautious about what a fan base says after a trade as many posters just want to win the post trade pissing match. This was especially true after the Trouba trade as Ranger fans were in full gloat mode. Many posters on the Jets board picked up on this despite never watching him play looking for a way to throw a few arrows Chevy's way. Sure his numbers were bad, but explainable IMO given such horrible usage in his first full season on a very bad team that hung their defense out to dry. Again IMO he is the same player that came out of college as a very sought after UFA after a monster season at UMD a top NCAA program. Even a passing glance at a highlight package showed the kid was an extremely good skater that seemed to move the puck well, so just maybe with the right usage he could excel. No one likes to give our pro scouts any credit but they did their job well in this instance.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

IMO you should be very cautious about what a fan base says after a trade as many posters just want to win the post trade pissing match. This was especially true after the Trouba trade as Ranger fans were in full gloat mode. Many posters on the Jets board picked up on this despite never watching him play looking for a way to throw a few arrows Chevy's way. Sure his numbers were bad, but explainable IMO given such horrible usage in his first full season on a very bad team that hung their defense out to dry. Again IMO he is the same player that came out of college as a very sought after UFA after a monster season at UMD a top NCAA program. Even a passing glance at a highlight package showed the kid was an extremely good skater that seemed to move the puck well, so just maybe with the right usage he could excel. No one likes to give our pro scouts any credit but they did their job well in this instance.

Didn't he also start out pretty good with the Rangers and deteriorate as the season progressed?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Didn't he also start out pretty good with the Rangers and deteriorate as the season progressed?

Not sure about that. I think Rangers fans were pretty impressed by his 28 game introduction the year before. I don't know what role he played that year or who he was partnered with, FWIW.

I think we are seeing some natural growth or progression from him this year. Last year was rough on him but he gained experience. So it is not entirely that NYR were wrong about him last year. I think he probably is a better player this year.

 

[Whileee]

Didn't he also start out pretty good with the Rangers and deteriorate as the season progressed?

That's a narrative many fans have promulgated. However, his shot metrics, overall and relative to team, were pretty much the same in the first and second half of the season. I think fans soured because they fell out of the playoff race, etc.

 

[Jimmyjets]

Not sure about that. I think Rangers fans were pretty impressed by his 28 game introduction the year before. I don't know what role he played that year or who he was partnered with, FWIW.

I think we are seeing some natural growth or progression from him this year. Last year was rough on him but he gained experience. So it is not entirely that NYR were wrong about him last year. I think he probably is a better player this year.

I thought the big knock on him was that he isn't a great "in zone" defender at breaking up the cycle or covering net front and he gave up his own blueline to the attacking team almost every time with the Rangers so he ended up doing the things he isn't great at a lot.

Jets run a different system where we don't give up the blueline so his strengths in skating, puck retrieval and transition to offense are maximized while his Dzone defending is minimized. Potentially the same player just in a system that suits him much better.

 

[hn777]

Didn't he also start out pretty good with the Rangers and deteriorate as the season progressed?

Yes, he deteriorated in regards to points production (and IIRC +/-), but he was also overplayed as a #1D, as the Rangers did not have one, the Jets have Morrissey. Also, he was paired with Staal, who is terrible, Kulikov while up and down this season is clearly better.

I agree with @Jimmyjets excellent post, that the Jets system also suits him better (at least he looks very much at home).

 

[KingBogo]

I thought the big knock on him was that he isn't a great "in zone" defender at breaking up the cycle or covering net front and he gave up his own blueline to the attacking team almost every time with the Rangers so he ended up doing the things he isn't great at a lot.

Jets run a different system where we don't give up the blueline so his strengths in skating, puck retrieval and transition to offense are maximized while his Dzone defending is minimized. Potentially the same player just in a system that suits him much better.

Sounds to me that maybe there is some effective strengths based coaching going on.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I thought the big knock on him was that he isn't a great "in zone" defender at breaking up the cycle or covering net front and he gave up his own blueline to the attacking team almost every time with the Rangers so he ended up doing the things he isn't great at a lot.

Jets run a different system where we don't give up the blueline so his strengths in skating, puck retrieval and transition to offense are maximized while his Dzone defending is minimized. Potentially the same player just in a system that suits him much better.

That's an interesting take on it. We certainly have had a problem getting hemmed in by a cycle. He seems to at least be adequate at breaking it up. At least when the F's are doing their share. Small sample, but I think our new look top 6 is getting hemmed in less.

 

[Buffdog]

This conversation is yet again an example of why I dislike using advanced stats to pass judgement on a hockey player. Things like teammates, system, deployment, etc have such a huge effect. Not to mention using team stats to evaluate a single player.

In baseball, a .275 hitter will he that on any team. But then again, baseball is essentially an individual sport - pitcher vs batter. Hockey is a million times more fluid with a million more variables.

You just can't take a "moneyball" approach and create a "moneypuck" equivalent.

 

[Duke749]

This conversation is yet again an example of why I dislike using advanced stats to pass judgement on a hockey player. Things like teammates, system, deployment, etc have such a huge effect. Not to mention using team stats to evaluate a single player.

In baseball, a .275 hitter will he that on any team. But then again, baseball is essentially an individual sport - pitcher vs batter. Hockey is a million times more fluid with a million more variables.

You just can't take a "moneyball" approach and create a "moneypuck" equivalent.

You also can’t take an “eye test” and take it for it’s worth. It’s all about combining the two in the most efficient manner possible. If the data and the eye test don’t match, either you have a biased view, or the data isn’t telling you what it’s supposed too.

 

[Buffdog]

You also can’t take an “eye test” and take it for it’s worth. It’s all about combining the two in the most efficient manner possible. If the data and the eye test don’t match, either you have a biased view, or the data isn’t telling you what it’s supposed too.

Or a bit of both.

Eye test works to establish a players physical abilities, stats can clue you in to their on ice results. If a guy who has all the tools isnt performing well in the advanced metrics, I think that's a good opportunity to say "why" vs "he's a bad player".

FWIW, I understand there's not a whole lot of love for trouba over on the rangers board. Has he gotten worse as a player, or is he the same player he was here but isnt thriving due to the factors I mentioned in my above post? I'd guess the latter.

That's why stats can't be used as the sole criteria for judging players

 

[Duke749]

Or a bit of both.

Eye test works to establish a players physical abilities, stats can clue you in to their on ice results. If a guy who has all the tools isnt performing well in the advanced metrics, I think that's a good opportunity to say "why" vs "he's a bad player".

FWIW, I understand there's not a whole lot of love for trouba over on the rangers board. Has he gotten worse as a player, or is he the same player he was here but isnt thriving due to the factors I mentioned in my above post? I'd guess the latter.

That's why stats can't be used as the sole criteria for judging players

Most people on this board that use the stats don’t use them solely. But those that use only the eye test are prone to missing things. Rangers have problems defending. Change the players but not the system and not much will change.

The eye test can be severely bias. That’s the problem with relying on it. If something looks off, stats can tell you why if you know what to look at.

 

[Buffdog]

Most people on this board that use the stats don’t use them solely. But those that use only the eye test are prone to missing things. Rangers have problems defending. Change the players but not the system and not much will change.

Just to be on topic (ish)... how many times have I seen someone post "risto is available" (a big, skilled, hard hitting RHD on a shitty team) only to see it followed up with a "he's terrible" (with a bar graph to back up - or rather, entirely make - their argument)

 

[Jets]

I just was reading some main board stuffs about Hall probably leaving NJ and people there being accepting of it as nearly inevitable. Lead me to capfriendly to fantasize about keeping Wheeler at 2C and sending them Little for Hall when he's back from injury. Then plugged in a cap of about 83.5M and Hall at 8x9M for sheets and giggles.

Moral of the story was none of this, but rather when you drop Buffs's salary and look at our team for next year, holy crap do we have cap space to play with. The only "major" expiring deal this offseason is Roslovic (who probably clocks in at a year or two for 2-3M) and then nothing but leftover space. You could even dump Perreault if necessary but even without, we're in very good shape.

I realize we also have to plan ahead for Laine and Pionk next deals, but Chevy has really set us up to make a splash in FA or via trade if we need to with all the savvy long term deals we have on the roster.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I just was reading some main board stuffs about Hall probably leaving NJ and people there being accepting of it as nearly inevitable. Lead me to capfriendly to fantasize about keeping Wheeler at 2C and sending them Little for Hall when he's back from injury. Then plugged in a cap of about 83.5M and Hall at 8x9M for sheets and giggles.

Moral of the story was none of this, but rather when you drop Buffs's salary and look at our team for next year, holy crap do we have cap space to play with. The only "major" expiring deal this offseason is Roslovic (who probably clocks in at a year or two for 2-3M) and then nothing but leftover space. You could even dump Perreault if necessary but even without, we're in very good shape.

I realize we also have to plan ahead for Laine and Pionk next deals, but Chevy has really set us up to make a splash in FA or via trade if we need to with all the savvy long term deals we have on the roster.

Problem with FA is you sign Kulikova or Masons. Overpriced guys.

 

[KingBogo]

I just was reading some main board stuffs about Hall probably leaving NJ and people there being accepting of it as nearly inevitable. Lead me to capfriendly to fantasize about keeping Wheeler at 2C and sending them Little for Hall when he's back from injury. Then plugged in a cap of about 83.5M and Hall at 8x9M for sheets and giggles.

Moral of the story was none of this, but rather when you drop Buffs's salary and look at our team for next year, holy crap do we have cap space to play with. The only "major" expiring deal this offseason is Roslovic (who probably clocks in at a year or two for 2-3M) and then nothing but leftover space. You could even dump Perreault if necessary but even without, we're in very good shape.

I realize we also have to plan ahead for Laine and Pionk next deals, but Chevy has really set us up to make a splash in FA or via trade if we need to with all the savvy long term deals we have on the roster.

Don't think there is much of a chance that the rebuilding NJ is interested in Little even if we gave him to them, let alone trade one of the biggest TD chips available. If they believe they have no chance of re-signing him they will wait for the run up to the TD and take the best futures offer on the table. I'm guessing a player as talented as Hall gets them a 1st and 2 top prospects as a rental.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Don't think there is much of a chance that the rebuilding NJ is interested in Little even if we gave him to them, let alone trade one of the biggest TD chips available. If they believe they have no chance of re-signing him they will wait for the run up to the TD and take the best futures offer on the table. I'm guessing a player as talented as Hall gets them a 1st and 2 top prospects as a rental.

He isn’t better than Stone or even as good imo. Stone returned one top prospect and a 1st.

 

[GaryPoppins]

He isn’t better than Stone or even as good imo. Stone returned one top prospect and a 1st.

Not even a first. It was a second

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Don't think there is much of a chance that the rebuilding NJ is interested in Little even if we gave him to them, let alone trade one of the biggest TD chips available. If they believe they have no chance of re-signing him they will wait for the run up to the TD and take the best futures offer on the table. I'm guessing a player as talented as Hall gets them a 1st and 2 top prospects as a rental.

Alrighty then. Since we're obviously a contender, looks like Chevy will be giving up our 1st (again!), Vesa and Samberg for another Cup Run (tm). Yay.

 

[KingBogo]

Alrighty then. Since we're obviously a contender, looks like Chevy will be giving up our 1st (again!), Vesa and Samberg for another Cup Run (tm). Yay.

I don't think Chevy would give up Samberg even with a knife to his throat. Doubt a 1st either. I can see KV floated with our glut of star young wingers.

 

[GNP]

I don't think Chevy would give up Samberg even with a knife to his throat. Doubt a 1st either. I can see KV floated with our glut of star young wingers.

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I don't see much value in KV so far, so I doubt he would be of interest to any teams. He is having trouble just making the Jet's lineup. From what I've seen of him, and that's very little -- not to impressive.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

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I don't see much value in KV so far, so I doubt he would be of interest to any teams. He is having trouble just making the Jet's lineup. From what I've seen of him, and that's very little -- not to impressive.

We voted him in as one of our top prospects so GM's around the league have to respect that. Chevy can point to the poll and say, don't you dissa our Krisa.