Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19

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JetsFan815

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I would not be surprised at all to see absolutely no movement from the Jets. Dano/Petan will be in danger of being exposed on the waiver wire if the Jets don't trade these guys but it would not surprise me one bit if the Jets don't trade any roster players/prospects like Dano/Petan.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I see them shopping Perrault just after FA frenzy to teams that missed out on players.

OK. I'm just wondering what are the periods when trades typically happen. It used to be, years ago that trades could and did happen anytime. Now it seems like the trade windows are fairly rigidly defined but my memory isn't good enough to know when are all the periods when they typically happen.

I think that now until July 1, a lot of GMs will be giving their attention to the FA market. But they could also be thinking of filling their holes now with a trade for less cap hit than FA frenzy would require.

Then by mid July the frenzy will have passed and, as you say there will be teams that missed out. Is that period quite short? Or does it last until TC opens? We don't want to wait for the next window. We will already be getting hit with cap.

Other GM's will be fully aware of our pending cap issues. They will be trying to steal somebody.
 

surixon

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OK. I'm just wondering what are the periods when trades typically happen. It used to be, years ago that trades could and did happen anytime. Now it seems like the trade windows are fairly rigidly defined but my memory isn't good enough to know when are all the periods when they typically happen.

I think that now until July 1, a lot of GMs will be giving their attention to the FA market. But they could also be thinking of filling their holes now with a trade for less cap hit than FA frenzy would require.

Then by mid July the frenzy will have passed and, as you say there will be teams that missed out. Is that period quite short? Or does it last until TC opens? We don't want to wait for the next window. We will already be getting hit with cap.

Other GM's will be fully aware of our pending cap issues. They will be trying to steal somebody.

Hard to say when the window closes. I think there will be some movement on a number of fronts next week as I am sure a good many teams will know just by talking to the players which FA will sign with them and which wont.

While I think you are correct that certain teams will try to get Jet players for cheap I am sure if Chevy is dangling Perrault there will be a number of teams very interested and that should keep the market value up.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I would not be surprised at all to see absolutely no movement from the Jets. Dano/Petan will be in danger of being exposed on the waiver wire if the Jets don't trade these guys but it would not surprise me one bit if the Jets don't trade any roster players/prospects like Dano/Petan.

Then we go over the cap with bonuses. The overage hits us next year along with the new contracts for Laine, Wheeler, Connor. That will put us over the cap. We will have to choose between letting Wheeler walk or losing a much younger player. And we will have lost 1 of Dano or Petan for nothing. That is really ****ty asset management.
 

mcpw

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OK. I'm just wondering what are the periods when trades typically happen. It used to be, years ago that trades could and did happen anytime. Now it seems like the trade windows are fairly rigidly defined but my memory isn't good enough to know when are all the periods when they typically happen.

I think that now until July 1, a lot of GMs will be giving their attention to the FA market. But they could also be thinking of filling their holes now with a trade for less cap hit than FA frenzy would require.

Then by mid July the frenzy will have passed and, as you say there will be teams that missed out. Is that period quite short? Or does it last until TC opens? We don't want to wait for the next window. We will already be getting hit with cap.

Other GM's will be fully aware of our pending cap issues. They will be trying to steal somebody.

This year is a bit special, the unresolved Tavares/Carlson/Kovalchuk situations pretty much prevented trades at the draft, I guess. Only one single 2018 pick was moved for a player on draft day, that's really low activity so far.

Recent history (blockbusters bold):

2014
before the draft -- Hartnell/Umberger
at the draft -- Kesler to ANA, Garrison to TBL, Neal/Hornqvist, Vey to VAN, Gunnarsson/Polak, Bollig, Pasquale for picks
between draft and FA -- Gagner threeway, Thompson for picks, Briere/Parenteau
during FA frenzy -- Spezza to DAL, Gorges, B. Stuart, McGinn for picks
no relevant trades between July 3rd and October

2015
before the draft -- no relevant trades
at the draft -- Lehner to BUF, Hamilton to CGY, Lucic-Jones threeway, O'Reilly to BUF, the Griffin Reinhart special, Palmieri to NJD, Hagelin to ANA, Talbot to EDM, Wisniewski/Khudobin, Raanta to NYR, Gagner to PHI, Marincin, Gryba for picks (busy draft)
between draft and FA -- Saad/Anisimov, Korpikoski/Gordon, Bieksa, Rinaldo for picks
during FA frenzy -- Kessel to PIT, Oshie/Brouwer, R. Smith / J. Hayes, Kassian/Prust
later in July -- Sharp/Daley, Nilsson to EDM, Sutter/Bonino
followed by two September trades

2016
before the draft -- Teravainen/Bickell cap dump, Andersen to TOR
at the draft -- Eller/Shaw threeway, Datsyuk dump, Elliott to CGY, Kulikov/Pysyk, DeAngelo, B. Bennett, Holden for picks
between draft and FA -- Hall/Larsson, Weber/Subban, Chiasson to CGY
during FA frenzy -- Nilsson to STL
later in July -- Bernier to ANA, Brassard/Zibanejad
Crouse/Bolland to ARI in August, next trades in October

2017 (not listing trades with Vegas)
before the XD -- Drouin/Sergachyov, Smith to CGY, Graovac, Cousins, Beaulieu, Mueller for picks
between XD and draft -- Eberle/Strome
at the draft -- Hjalmarsson/Murphy, Panarin/Saad, Stepan/Raanta to ARI, Schenn to STL, Reaves to PIT, Hamonic to CGY
between draft and FA -- Lack to CGY, Scandella/Pominville/Ennis/Foligno
during FA frenzy -- Wilson to COL, Johansson to NJD
no more trades until Demers/McGinn in September

2018
before the draft -- Galchenyuk/Domi, Hoffman threeway
at the draft -- Grubauer/Orpik to COL, Hanifin/Lindholm/Hamilton/Ferland
 

Mortimer Snerd

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This year is a bit special, the unresolved Tavares/Carlson/Kovalchuk situations pretty much prevented trades at the draft, I guess. Only one single 2018 pick was moved for a player on draft day, that's really low activity so far.

Recent history (blockbusters bold):

2014
before the draft -- Hartnell/Umberger
at the draft -- Kesler to ANA, Garrison to TBL, Neal/Hornqvist, Vey to VAN, Gunnarsson/Polak, Bollig, Pasquale for picks
between draft and FA -- Gagner threeway, Thompson for picks, Briere/Parenteau
during FA frenzy -- Spezza to DAL, Gorges, B. Stuart, McGinn for picks
no relevant trades between July 3rd and October

2015
before the draft -- no relevant trades
at the draft -- Lehner to BUF, Hamilton to CGY, Lucic-Jones threeway, O'Reilly to BUF, the Griffin Reinhart special, Palmieri to NJD, Hagelin to ANA, Talbot to EDM, Wisniewski/Khudobin, Raanta to NYR, Gagner to PHI, Marincin, Gryba for picks (busy draft)
between draft and FA -- Saad/Anisimov, Korpikoski/Gordon, Bieksa, Rinaldo for picks
during FA frenzy -- Kessel to PIT, Oshie/Brouwer, R. Smith / J. Hayes, Kassian/Prust
later in July -- Sharp/Daley, Nilsson to EDM, Sutter/Bonino
followed by two September trades

2016
before the draft -- Teravainen/Bickell cap dump, Andersen to TOR
at the draft -- Eller/Shaw threeway, Datsyuk dump, Elliott to CGY, Kulikov/Pysyk, DeAngelo, B. Bennett, Holden for picks
between draft and FA -- Hall/Larsson, Weber/Subban, Chiasson to CGY
during FA frenzy -- Nilsson to STL
later in July -- Bernier to ANA, Brassard/Zibanejad
Crouse/Bolland to ARI in August, next trades in October

2017 (not listing trades with Vegas)
before the XD -- Drouin/Sergachyov, Smith to CGY, Graovac, Cousins, Beaulieu, Mueller for picks
between XD and draft -- Eberle/Strome
at the draft -- Hjalmarsson/Murphy, Panarin/Saad, Stepan/Raanta to ARI, Schenn to STL, Reaves to PIT, Hamonic to CGY
between draft and FA -- Lack to CGY, Scandella/Pominville/Ennis/Foligno
during FA frenzy -- Wilson to COL, Johansson to NJD
no more trades until Demers/McGinn in September

2018
before the draft -- Galchenyuk/Domi, Hoffman threeway
at the draft -- Grubauer/Orpik to COL, Hanifin/Lindholm/Hamilton/Ferland

Good list, thanks.
IDK if Karlsson/Tavares/Kovy had a dampening effect or not. Most teams must have known they were not in on those but maybe it doesn't require taking many teams out of the picture to depress the market.

You seem to have broken it down into busy periods pretty well. It appears that trade activity almost stops soon after FA frenzy until well into the fall at least.

Will these next 2 weeks be very busy or will the quiet continue?
 

None

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In all the news around the league about Tavares hitting free agency, the Hurricanes seemingly retooling, Kovalchuk coming back (and Voynov wanting to as well), Panarin not wanting to sign with Columbus, Erik Karlsson and the Senators issues, and then the draft it feels like Stastny's been the forgotten man in the media. A lot of big news to overshadow a pretty decent crop of free agents.



6Hi1Qyo.jpg


I'm curious to know what he'd be willing to accept to stay. His production hasn't been much better than Little's over the past few years, but chemistry is hard to ignore. If he gets term (4+ years) would he cost less than Little given that he's older? The Jets almost assuredly wouldn't be able to fit whatever he'd get from a more desperate team under the cap.
 

puck stoppa

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In all the news around the league about Tavares hitting free agency, the Hurricanes seemingly retooling, Kovalchuk coming back (and Voynov wanting to as well), Panarin not wanting to sign with Columbus, Erik Karlsson and the Senators issues, and then the draft it feels like Stastny's been the forgotten man in the media. A lot of big news to overshadow a pretty decent crop of free agents.



6Hi1Qyo.jpg


I'm curious to know what he'd be willing to accept to stay. His production hasn't been much better than Little's over the past few years, but chemistry is hard to ignore. If he gets term (4+ years) would he cost less than Little given that he's older? The Jets almost assuredly wouldn't be able to fit whatever he'd get from a more desperate team under the cap.

Avs can offer more, but at this point he'd probably go where his best chance is to win. He's made 60 million after his last two contracts, another 20 million coming, I think he can afford to take a little less in exchange for a chance to win and in a place him and his family enjoy. I think he's here 100% if Chevy can move salary.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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In all the news around the league about Tavares hitting free agency, the Hurricanes seemingly retooling, Kovalchuk coming back (and Voynov wanting to as well), Panarin not wanting to sign with Columbus, Erik Karlsson and the Senators issues, and then the draft it feels like Stastny's been the forgotten man in the media. A lot of big news to overshadow a pretty decent crop of free agents.



6Hi1Qyo.jpg


I'm curious to know what he'd be willing to accept to stay. His production hasn't been much better than Little's over the past few years, but chemistry is hard to ignore. If he gets term (4+ years) would he cost less than Little given that he's older? The Jets almost assuredly wouldn't be able to fit whatever he'd get from a more desperate team under the cap.


Concede you the chemistry (with Ehlers & Laine) but Little has actually outproduced him in ppg over the last 4 years.

Whatever is the most wildly optimistic combination of $$$ and term that you think he would accept it is still way beyond the Jets ability to fit under the cap - unless some significant player is moved out to make room. Those players not being named Myers or Perreault, because they have to go even without Stastny. And not being named Mason or Kulikov either because those contracts are immovable in their own right, unless someone else is thrown in to pay some team to take them.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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Avs can offer more, but at this point he'd probably go where his best chance is to win. He's made 60 million after his last two contracts, another 20 million coming, I think he can afford to take a little less in exchange for a chance to win and in a place him and his family enjoy. I think he's here 100% if Chevy can move salary.

Who do you think he might move to make room? Myers and Perreault don't count.
 

surixon

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Concede you the chemistry (with Ehlers & Laine) but Little has actually outproduced him in ppg over the last 4 years.

Whatever is the most wildly optimistic combination of $$$ and term that you think he would accept it is still way beyond the Jets ability to fit under the cap - unless some significant player is moved out to make room. Those players not being named Myers or Perreault, because they have to go even without Stastny. And not being named Mason or Kulikov either because those contracts are immovable in their own right, unless someone else is thrown in to pay some team to take them.

They would have to move Little. That is really the only option that would make it work mid term barring being able to move Kulikov along with Myers and Perrault.

I just don't see it happening with Stastny nor do I really want it to truth be told.

That or the Jets do something stupid and move out Ehlers (Don't see that happening at all)
 

puck stoppa

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That allows you to fit him in for only one season. That is asking an awful lot of the player to only sign a one year deal. After next season we can't fit him without doing some major roster reconstruction.
Even if they bridge Jmo? And replace bottom 6 with cheaper options?
 

surixon

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Even if they bridge Jmo? And replace bottom 6 with cheaper options?

Yup. See below:

Forwards
Line Left WingCenterRight Wing Total
1Connor, KyleScheifele, Mark Laine, Patrick
1,775,000 6,125,000 3,575,000 11,475,000
2Ehlers, NickLittle, BrianWheeler, Blake
6,000,0005,291,6665,600,000 16,891,666
3Petan, NikStastney, PaulRoslovic, Jack
800,0006,000,0001,106,666 7,906,666
4Copp, AndewLowry, AdamArmia, Joel
1,000,000 3,000,0001,500,000 5,500,000
ExtrasTanev, Brendanextra
1,000,000 1,000,000
Froward total 42,773,332
Defense
PairLeft DefenseRight Defense
1Morrissey, JoshTrouba, Jacob
3,000,000 6,500,000 9,500,000
2 Niku, Sami Byfuglien, Dustin
916,667 7,600,000 8,516,667
3 Kulikov, Dmitry Poolman, Tucker
4,333,333 1,200,000 5,533,333
Extras Chairot, Ben Morrow, Joe
1,400,000 800,000 2,200,000
Defense Total 25,750,000
GoaliesStarterBackup
Hellebuyck, ConnorMason
6,000,000 4,100,000 10,100,000
BuyoutStuart, Marc
583,333 583,333
Grand Total 79,206,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling 79,500,000
Cap space remaining 293,335
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2019-2020

Forwards
Line Left WingCenterRight Wing Total
1Connor, KyleScheifele, Mark Laine, Patrick
3,500,000 6,125,000 9,000,000 18,625,000
2Ehlers, NickLittle, BrianWheeler, Blake
6,000,0005,291,6667,500,000 18,791,666
3Vesalainen, KristianStastney, PaulRoslovic, Jack
1,106,6666,000,0001,106,666 8,213,332
4Copp, AndrewLowry, AdamTanev, Brandon
2,000,000 3,000,000 1,000,000 6,000,000
ExtrasExtra 1Extra 2
800,000 800,000 1,600,000
Froward total 53,229,998
Defense
PairLeft DefenseRight Defense
1Morrissey, JoshTrouba, Jacob
3,000,000 6,500,000 9,500,000
2 Niku, Sami Byfuglien, Dustin
916,667 7,600,000 8,516,667
3 Kulikov, Dmitry Poolman, Tucker
4,333,333 1,200,000 5,533,333
Extras Extra 1
1,000,000 1,000,000
Defense Total 24,550,000
GoaliesStarterBackup
Hellebuyck, ConnorExtra 1
6,000,000 1,250,000 7,250,000
Grand Total 85,029,998
Estimated Cap Ceiling 83,000,000
Cap space remaining - 2,029,998
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


As can be seen, even with both Morrissey and Conner bridged we are over $2 million over an estimated 83 million cap. I just don't see any way it is feasible to keep him mid term. We take a significant hit to our depth to try to fit him in and put an awful lot of pressure on our prospects to hit the ground running.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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They would have to move Little. That is really the only option that would make it work mid term barring being able to move Kulikov along with Myers and Perrault.

I just don't see it happening with Stastny nor do I really want it to truth be told.

That or the Jets do something stupid and move out Ehlers (Don't see that happening at all)

NMC aside I really have to wonder at the idea of moving Little to keep Stastny. It has been said several times that they are the same player except that Little is 2 years younger. The other difference, of course is that Stastny appeared to have better chemistry with Ehlers and Laine but that was a small sample and may be misleading. The lack of chemistry with Little might easily be solved just by swapping either one of his wingers with one of Scheifele's.

That said, I am a little concerned at the term of Little's new contract. When it was signed, I certainly would not have thought I would be saying that before it even kicked in. But if we signed Stastny for 4 years it would expire when he is the age Little will be when his contract expires.

Little would have to waive. His NMC is full for 2 years. Then he can submit a 14 team no trade list. If he would waive and Stastny would sign 4x5 and we could find a buyer for Little I wouldn't mind. But that is a lot of obstacles to overcome in the next week.
 

BB88

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Stastny turns 33y at the end of year, he's at an age where his game could drop quick, the term is so so important with him, if they want to sign him.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Myers and Perreault

I said Myers and Perreault don't count. :laugh:
Both have to be moved, even without signing Stastny. One this year, one next - just to stay cap compliant. If not them, then someone else. Still has to be about 10 mil moved. We could trade Wheeler and Lowry but I think Myers and Perreault are more likely. We have to let Mason's and Kulikov's contracts expire too, when the time comes.

The cap crunch is upon us. We have no room to acquire any player not on a sub 1 mil contract. Or, any contract we acquire has to be accompanied by an equal amount of cap moving out.
 
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surixon

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I said Myers and Perreault don't count. :laugh:
Both have to be moved, even without signing Stastny. One this year, one next - just to stay cap compliant. If not them, then someone else. Still has to be about 10 mil moved. We could trade Wheeler and Lowry but I think Myers and Perreault are more likely. We have to let Mason's and Kulikov's contracts expire too, when the time comes.

The cap crunch is upon us. We have no room to acquire any player not on a sub 1 mil contract. Or, any contract we acquire has to be accompanied by an equal amount of cap moving out.

Yup, there are just too many "ifs" that would need to be accomplished and just too many moving parts to think we can keep Stastny. The tone by Chevy and the org is pretty much alluding to the fact that they don't think they can keep him. Every interview is "Yes we would love to keep him but it will be tough" To me they are already putting the message out there that he will likely not be back.

Edit: The fact that Maurice is also openly talking about using Roslovic as a C would also substantiate the message that the org likely doesn't believe they will be able to retain him.
 
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JetsUK

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I'm in the "Thanks, Paul -- and fare thee well" camp. A fan of the player and appreciate what he brought but never liked rentals and like them even less when they require pricy new contracts that dilute depth and narrow contention windows.
 

puck stoppa

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I really appreciate those charts above, great work! So it looks like with MP and Myers gone we should be okay this year. Then Mason will be gone and then it looks Kulikov is the guy that needs to be dealt at some point. We should be able to fill in one bottom pair D and a back up goalie much less, then we will be fine no? That and Wheels, Stastny and Tanev will sign for lest then you have listed IMO. I think we can make it work, but guys will need to take home town discounts no doubt.
 

Mathil8

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Yup, there are just too many "ifs" that would need to be accomplished and just too many moving parts to think we can keep Stastny. The tone by Chevy and the org is pretty much alluding to the fact that they don't think they can keep him. Every interview is "Yes we would love to keep him but it will be tough" To me they are already putting the message out there that he will likely not be back.

Edit: The fact that Maurice is also openly talking about using Roslovic as a C would also substantiate the message that the org likely doesn't believe they will be able to retain him.

When was Mo openly talking about using Roslovic as a C? Link if handy please and thanks :)
 
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