Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part III

[Duke749]

Won't argue - but I still can't see it.

I believe it’s something you really have to look for. @Whileee started pointing out a few things with some other players and so I’ve been trying to watch with a little more deeper understanding.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I believe it’s something you really have to look for. @Whileee started pointing out a few things with some other players and so I’ve been trying to watch with a little more deeper understanding.

I've been looking for it 2 years. There is a combination of excessive, undeserved criticism and my poor observation skills. I keep seeing him making good plays. I'm clearly not looking in the right place for his bad ones.

 

[Duke749]

I've been looking for it 2 years. There is a combination of excessive, undeserved criticism and my poor observation skills. I keep seeing him making good plays. I'm clearly not looking in the right place for his bad ones.

If you’re seeing good plays from him, please point it out in the GDTs as I’m sure there’s a fair amount of us that may be bias as well.

 

[surixon]

I've been looking for it 2 years. There is a combination of excessive, undeserved criticism and my poor observation skills. I keep seeing him making good plays. I'm clearly not looking in the right place for his bad ones.

Its probably because he doesn't make too many high event bad defensive plays that stand out in a negative way. He is just consistently below average in a number of areas such as gap, breakouts and closing off his man in his own end that it tends to look like he is playing a relatively even game back there. Its just that is base defensive game is replacement level. Its probably why Maurice likes him because while he is consistently poor he doesn't give up the five alarm chances that often.

Offensively it is the opposite, he generates very little but when he converts its generally of the more flashy/memorable variety such as taking the puck hard to the net or his hard slap shot on the few times he hits the target.

 

[10Ducky10]

No way in the world should Chiarot or Morrow be playing 2nd pairing in the NHL. Niku is learning how to play in the D zone and will be called up when they figure he is ready. Obviously, they don't think he is and are patiently waiting.
I am not that patient. I would send Myers and a pick for a good 2nd pairing or Ehlers and Myers for an excellent 1LHD. Then, we'd have two 1st pairings and Poolman and Kuli.
Maurice said they didn't have Kuli in because of the b2b games. He played well with Myers on the 3rd pairing last year.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I don't think we can win the Stanley Cup with Morrow and Chiarot on the ice at the same time.

I would like to see Kulikov boost Myers but we need a better partner for Buff.

Niku and Samberg are too far out yet.

This issue has been dogging us for years.....the left side of the D...minus last year...

 

[10Ducky10]

I'd like to see them make a trade for someone like Leddy or Murray to complement Buff.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If you’re seeing good plays from him, please point it out in the GDTs as I’m sure there’s a fair amount of us that may be bias as well.

Never go to the GDT during the game. I PVR and watch later. No commercials. No Don Cherry. I do make comments out loud though. Like, "see, he didn't ice it".

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Its probably because he doesn't make too many high event bad defensive plays that stand out in a negative way. He is just consistently below average in a number of areas such as gap, breakouts and closing off his man in his own end that it tends to look like he is playing a relatively even game back there. Its just that is base defensive game is replacement level. Its probably why Maurice likes him because while he is consistently poor he doesn't give up the five alarm chances that often.

Offensively it is the opposite, he generates very little but when he converts its generally of the more flashy/memorable variety such as taking the puck hard to the net or his hard slap shot on the few times he hits the target.

Certainly some truth in that. I often try to watch specific players but get side-tracked watching the game instead. Especially on TV, its hard to follow a player as he moves in and out of the frame.

 

[tbcwpg]

If you’re seeing good plays from him, please point it out in the GDTs as I’m sure there’s a fair amount of us that may be bias as well.

He has an elite ability to turn any breakout into an icing call. He's doing that at a pro level.

 

[garret9]

I've been looking for it 2 years. There is a combination of excessive, undeserved criticism and my poor observation skills. I keep seeing him making good plays. I'm clearly not looking in the right place for his bad ones.

This data is a bit out of date and not huge samples, but it doesn't show someone making a lot of good plays, although he was at least in the 79th percentile in one stat for one small sample.

Here is if you combine the two:

Looking at overall results, instead of microstats:

Raw is shots with Chiarot on the ice. Isolated is Chiarot's estimated impact. Teammates, opponents, zone, and score are impacts of his usage. Other is things unaccounted for.

For comparison to Chiarot's estimated -17.2 threat, Kulikov -14.1, Myers -7.5, Morrow -5.8.

^Threat is not a WAR stat, as it doesn't include things like finishing talents, point production, penalty differentials, etc.

 

[JetsFan815]

Without Morrissey on the ice, it literally looks like a bomb went off in front of the Jets net on the left side stretching all the way from the left point to the goalie crease:

At this point I would move mountains to get Toby back on the roster. I just don't understand why they didn't aim higher than Joe Morrow for LD, knowing that Enstrom was not on the team, Kulikov recovering from a back injury that recurred and Chiarot not being a top-4 dman. Even taking a chance on guys like Hamhuis, Brandon Davidson and Jerabek who weren't signed till late in the UFA season would have been prudent. Davidson was not signed till Sept 27th, a guy like that could have been signed for the league minimum contract that he eventually did and he atleast has shown some upside. The Jets will eventually end up trading for a player of the same calibre or worse than Davidson at the deadline and losing a draft pick in the process.

 

[Jack722]

I've been looking for it 2 years. There is a combination of excessive, undeserved criticism and my poor observation skills. I keep seeing him making good plays. I'm clearly not looking in the right place for his bad ones.

One thing I try to watch for nowadays after having gone through all the ups and downs of fan perception of Enstrom, and having digested some of the stats behind Enstrom's apparent importance to the team:

Just how "involved in the play" is a defender? I noticed that Enstrom was not very involved at all, as in, he doesn't "do stuff" all that often. I believe that's because he was excellent at:
-Positioning and covering such that his area of the ice was less attractive for oppositions
-Anticipating the development of plays
-Making quick reads and passes to areas of the ice that would allow us to transition

So he was basically pretty invisible, and when he did get involved in a board battle or net-front tussle, he was decent but not great, and so much of what people actually notice is negative.


Chiarot seems to be the opposite. I notice him quite a bit when he's out there; he seems to be involved in things going on A LOT. When he is, he is decent at physically boxing guys out, laying hits, and giving himself a bit of time to make an easy pass.

But I think he's bad at the things that lead to having all those events in the first place:
-bad gaps on rushers
-bad gaps/not great positioning on coverage in general
-not great anticipation of what's happening and not great skating means he's always kind of 'adjusting' and playing catch-up, which lets opposition test him a lot


Just my take.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This data is a bit out of date and not huge samples, but it doesn't show someone making a lot of good plays, although he was at least in the 79th percentile in one stat for one small sample.

Here is if you combine the two:

Looking at overall results, instead of microstats:

Raw is shots with Chiarot on the ice. Isolated is Chiarot's estimated impact. Teammates, opponents, zone, and score are impacts of his usage. Other is things unaccounted for.

For comparison to Chiarot's estimated -17.2 threat, Kulikov -14.1, Myers -7.5, Morrow -5.8.

^Threat is not a WAR stat, as it doesn't include things like finishing talents, point production, penalty differentials, etc.

Thanks Garret. In those percentile charts what is it percentile of? All Dmen in the league? All #6 Dmen in the league? Other?

I'm afraid I can't make much sense out of all the others. I assume all the negative numbers are not good.

I'm not arguing that Chiarot is good. I only argue that he needs to be judged in the context of being a #6/7 D man. I question some of the criticisms that I can't see. And I question why some of the others are so hard to see.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

One thing I try to watch for nowadays after having gone through all the ups and downs of fan perception of Enstrom, and having digested some of the stats behind Enstrom's apparent importance to the team:

Just how "involved in the play" is a defender? I noticed that Enstrom was not very involved at all, as in, he doesn't "do stuff" all that often. I believe that's because he was excellent at:
-Positioning and covering such that his area of the ice was less attractive for oppositions
-Anticipating the development of plays
-Making quick reads and passes to areas of the ice that would allow us to transition

So he was basically pretty invisible, and when he did get involved in a board battle or net-front tussle, he was decent but not great, and so much of what people actually notice is negative.


Chiarot seems to be the opposite. I notice him quite a bit when he's out there; he seems to be involved in things going on A LOT. When he is, he is decent at physically boxing guys out, laying hits, and giving himself a bit of time to make an easy pass.

But I think he's bad at the things that lead to having all those events in the first place:
-bad gaps on rushers
-bad gaps/not great positioning on coverage in general
-not great anticipation of what's happening and not great skating means he's always kind of 'adjusting' and playing catch-up, which lets opposition test him a lot


Just my take.

Good post Jack. I'm sure you're on the right track. Unfortunately, those are the kind of things that are harder to see on TV. Live, you can follow a players movements during a shift and see what he is doing. The camera chases the puck. Players move in and out of the frame and are hard to follow. You often don't even know a player is on the ice until he is involved in a high profile event, good or bad.

 

[CaptainChef]

I don't think we can win the Stanley Cup with Morrow and Chiarot on the ice at the same time.

I would like to see Kulikov boost Myers but we need a better partner for Buff.

Niku and Samberg are too far out yet.

This issue has been dogging us for years.....the left side of the D...minus last year...

Someone else mentioned that we at least have resolution in the future on LD given Morrissey, Niku, Sanberg, but if/when Trouba departs, we could have real issues on RD. We'll have an aging Buff, Poolman, and very little else that I can see

 

[Adam da bomb]

Someone else mentioned that we at least have resolution in the future on LD given Morrissey, Niku, Sanberg, but if/when Trouba departs, we could have real issues on RD. We'll have an aging Buff, Poolman, and very little else that I can see

But depth at forward that can be traded for D.

 

[Atoyot]

I'd take a stab at Jerabek on waivers. Like him more than Chiarot or Morrow.

 

[mondo3]

I'd take a stab at Jerabek on waivers. Like him more than Chiarot or Morrow.

3 teams in 2 years, although he only got 1 game in StL.
Admittedly I've never watched his game

 

[garret9]

Someone else mentioned that we at least have resolution in the future on LD given Morrissey, Niku, Sanberg, but if/when Trouba departs, we could have real issues on RD. We'll have an aging Buff, Poolman, and very little else that I can see

At least Niku has played a lot on his off-side.

Makes a best case scenario something like:

Morrissey-Niku
Samberg-Byfuglien
Stanley-Poolman
Green/Nogier

Definitely not as pretty as best case scenario with Trouba in that equation, but could still work...

 

[Adam da bomb]

At least Niku has played a lot on his off-side.

Makes a best case scenario something like:

Morrissey-Niku
Samberg-Byfuglien
Stanley-Poolman
Green/Nogier

Definitely not as pretty as best case scenario with Trouba in that equation, but could still work...

That's interesting. I would think
Morissey Buff
Samberg/Niku
???/Poolman
Play Buff and Mo against the top lines and 22 minutes a game. Also, shouldn't we figure that the Jets will trade for a D whether that's trading Perrault/Connor/Ehlers
Tanev and Copp I doubt would bring anyone better than a last pairing D man. I should also ask how far in the future, does Trouba bring back a defensive prospect that would be ready soon. After all that doesn't sound like a heavy pay for a 1-2D in Trouba. Does he bring back a Center? If he does is it possible that the Jets might then trade Roslo if need be?
Lots of questions.

 

[KingBogo]

I'd take a stab at Jerabek on waivers. Like him more than Chiarot or Morrow.

Why? The Oilers, maybe the most suspect defensive team in the league who is in dire straights for anyone who can play defense trades him for a 6th round pick and a much more accomplished team that knows a thing or 2 about what good defenseman looks like and he is waived after a single game. So what is it about his game you like?

 

[Atoyot]

Why? The Oilers, maybe the most suspect defensive team in the league who is in dire straights for anyone who can play defense trades him for a 6th round pick and a much more accomplished team that knows a thing or 2 about what good defenseman looks like and he is waived after a single game. So what is it about his game you like?

Eye test added with his advanced stats being better than Morrow and Chiarot's? I watched a good amount of his games in Montreal, he's miles better than either.

 

[voyageur]

Eye test added with his advanced stats being better than Morrow and Chiarot's? I watched a good amount of his games in Montreal, he's miles better than either.

I watched a lot of his games in Montreal too, and he was weak defensively. Chiarot plays better in front of his goalie than Jerabek. Considerably better. Not a fit for our system. Rather see Niku break through than take a flyer on him.

 

[garret9]

I watched a lot of his games in Montreal too, and he was weak defensively. Chiarot plays better in front of his goalie than Jerabek. Considerably better. Not a fit for our system. Rather see Niku break through than take a flyer on him.

If Chiarot plays so well in front of the net, how come opponents get so many shots in front of the Jets net, especially on the left side, with Chiarot on the ice?