Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

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I think Trouba will end up signing for 4-5 years, in the $6-6.5M range, which would be good for the Jets. I then expect that he'll get traded with a year or so left on his contract for young players, prospects and/or picks to replenish the pipeline.
Does that mean you think the Jets window is about four or so years with the current group, or am I reading too much into something that isn't there? Would seem to make sense with Buff, Wheeler, Little aging as the senior part of the core. Not necessarily going to mean the Jets can't do anything after that with the Scheifele/Ehlers/Connor/Laine/Roslovic group of course.
 
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You still need to look at the contracts of those 15 top D in the NHL in the context of when they signed. And it is never fully informative to simply look at the AAV of any contract. The whole contact, all of its terms and all of its context need to be considered.

Where is the market for 7-8 year contracts at today? It is higher than it was a year ago.

I'm not disagreeing that whatever contract Trouba sign will reflect inflation as well also the new salary cap.

But using the numbers illustrated by @Gm0ney, 6%-8% of $5 million-ish is $300,000-$400,000. It's not $1,000,000+.

Trouba isn't getting $6.5 million+ from the Jets.

That comment isn't directed at you MS, rather those who are overestimating his salary by $2 million+.

The Cane model is proving to be correct within 10% on average. We have people here suggesting Trouba's deal will be off by 40%.
 
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Whileee

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Does that mean you think the Jets window is about four or so years with the current group, or am I reading too much into something that isn't there? Would seem to make sense with Buff, Wheeler, Little aging as the senior part of the core. Not necessarily going to mean the Jets can't do anything after that with the Scheifele/Ehlers/Connor/Laine/Roslovic group of course.
I think the Jets' window is longer if they manage their roster and cap judiciously, but I think that:

a) Getting Trouba on a decent value contract over the next few years is important to maintain the core.
b) The only way to keep the cap hit reasonable is on a shorter contract.
c) A 3-4 year window will keep Trouba through his best seasons, and allow the Jets to build up a D corps that can replace him.
d) The Jets can likely trade Trouba near his peak, as they will have to do with a few core players to maintain their pipeline in the long term.
 
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Whileee

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So you’re saying we have the cap space to take Trouba off your hands, allowing you to extend Pauly Walnuts?
Nah... you can sign Stastny to a big deal, we'll keep Trouba and the rest of our core, unless of course Stastny wants to cut a sweet deal to take another run at Lord Stanley's Cup. :nod:
 

JetsFan815

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I hate to say this as I love the guy and feel bad even typing this but I think I am on board with trading Little before his NMC kicks in (unless the Jets have him a retroactive NMC for this season as well) and re-signing Stastny for 2-3 seasons. Does anyone know if the Jets gave him a NMC for the last season of his old contract as well when he signed the new deal?
 

Gm0ney

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I hate to say this as I love the guy and feel bad even typing this but I think I am on board with trading Little before his NMC kicks in (unless the Jets have him a retroactive NMC for this season as well) and re-signing Stastny for 2-3 seasons. Does anyone know if the Jets gave him a NMC for the last season of his old contract as well when he signed the new deal?
Yes, the NMC was retroactive to cover the last year of his current deal (2017-18). So it's not an option. And I doubt he'd waive.
 
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Oilpeg

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I hate to say this as I love the guy and feel bad even typing this but I think I am on board with trading Little before his NMC kicks in (unless the Jets have him a retroactive NMC for this season as well) and re-signing Stastny for 2-3 seasons. Does anyone know if the Jets gave him a NMC for the last season of his old contract as well when he signed the new deal?

Yeah, I believe they retro added it at the time of the signing.
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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I'm not disagreeing that whatever contract Trouba sign will reflect inflation as well also the new salary cap.

But using the numbers illustrated by @Gm0ney, 6%-8% of $5 million-ish is $300,000-$400,000. It's not $1,000,000+.

Trouba isn't getting $6.5 million+ from the Jets.

That comment isn't directed at you MS, rather those who are overestimating his salary by $2 million+.

The Cane model is proving to be correct within 10% on average. We have people here suggesting Trouba's deal will be off by 40%.

I'm expecting something like 5.75-6x5 years as the most likely. I do think it will be significantly higher if it goes 7-8 years. 8x7 would surprise me just a bit - but that is where Kane's 7x7 comes in. The Cane Model had that one pretty close but I think Trouba is worth more than Kane. If he also signed for a year longer then he should get at least as much. That is, if you think the EK9 contract was fair value. The Cane Model apparently did think that. Therefore 7 is not out of the question for Trouba on a 7-8 year contract.

The Cane Model predicted 4.5x1 for Trouba. That is clearly predicting he will go through with arbitration. That is very different from us discussing him signing here long term.
 

204hockey

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Can we just offer trouba a 6x6 with tons of signing bonus and be done with it! Also pass on statsny unless it's a 2 years deal and under 5.5
 
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Whileee

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I don't think there's a hope in hell that Dubas would acquire Myers. Best to look to the non-analytics GMs.
Right. Stats darlings Gardiner and Rielly really handled the Bruins.

Myers does well with the right partner and modest opposition.
 

kylbaz

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I just don't see why Stastny would want to go to Colorado after being in Winnipeg and seeing how close we are. Obviously money is an issue but you'd have to think Winnipeg would be one of the best places to close out your career if you're looking to win the cup in the next few years.
 

Joe Hallenback

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I just don't see why Stastny would want to go to Colorado after being in Winnipeg and seeing how close we are. Obviously money is an issue but you'd have to think Winnipeg would be one of the best places to close out your career if you're looking to win the cup in the next few years.

Family is a big reason why anyone chooses where they live
 

10Ducky10

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I would do Myers in a heartbeat but no thanks to Trouba unless they are adding a prospect and their 10th overall pick.
 
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