Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

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KingBogo

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Rather overpay than do nothing at that spot.
We were complaining for Chevy to do somehting and we complain when he does it.
Let's not forget he is only 26 years old and probably wanted a deal for at least 5 years.

Agreed. Not many bargains to be had July 1st. But we needed Chevy to fill the LHD hole pretty much any way he could. But on the positive side it seems like only yesterday Kulikov was the can't miss prospect that could skate and move the puck. He seemed to start his career well enough then struggled, followed by a bad injury that took a big part of last season. If he gets to anywhere near the player he was he is a huge upgrade over Stu and Chiarot.
 

Constable

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Mar 17, 2014
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Agreed. Not many bargains to be had July 1st. But we needed Chevy to fill the LHD hole pretty much any way he could. But on the positive side it seems like only yesterday Kulikov was the can't miss prospect that could skate and move the puck. He seemed to start his career well enough then struggled, followed by a bad injury that took a big part of last season. If he gets to anywhere near the player he was he is a huge upgrade over Stu and Chiarot.

patrik wiercioch went to the nucks for 800k and he's pretty much kulikov but with good advanced stats and costs a 5th of the price
 

KingBogo

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patrik wiercioch went to the nucks for 800k and he's pretty much kulikov but with good advanced stats and costs a 5th of the price

As a Vancouver native I'm guessing that's where Wiercioch wanted to go and took a discount to do it. Doesn't mean he was sitting there for the Jets at the same money. Since we aren't so tight against the cap I'm willing to take a flyer that Kulivov finds his game. Back in 09 he was every bit as highly touted as the top d-man were in this year's draft.
 

ffh

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patrik wiercioch went to the nucks for 800k and he's pretty much kulikov but with good advanced stats and costs a 5th of the price

obviously the jets didn't want him or they would have offered him double what he got for that matter no one else wanted him even at a million.
 

Say What

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Jan 18, 2015
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IMO, I see the Bryan Little contract coming in at 5 years/$29.0625M or 6 years/$33.75 (maybe even $34M -maximum). I believe that TNSE would've started negotiating at
4 x $6M, expecting that Bryan will opt for term, structure and clauses. :popcorn:

In my opinion, an extra $375K per (on the open market), is insignificant to someone that believes in the direction of the organization; and those that are running it. Time will tell.

Simple logic.
Overpay half of your players by $500k each and that's a $5 mil/year player you have to let walk

IMO, this player wants a fair deal....nothing more, nothing less.

Bryan Little leaving $375K in the Coffers, certainly won't cost TNSE a $5M/yr player. Might be able to re-sign/extend a few extra ones though. Time will tell.
 

Constable

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obviously the jets didn't want him or they would have offered him double what he got for that matter no one else wanted him even at a million.

If the Jets didn't want him than that would be bad asset management, no? Passing up on a similar player who is more cost effective.

Wiercioch didn't get above one million because GM's are a crowd. When a few members of a crowd don't perceive a player as valuable, that drops a players value even if he's the better player.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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As a Vancouver native I'm guessing that's where Wiercioch wanted to go and took a discount to do it. Doesn't mean he was sitting there for the Jets at the same money. Since we aren't so tight against the cap I'm willing to take a flyer that Kulivov finds his game. Back in 09 he was every bit as highly touted as the top d-man were in this year's draft.

Are you suggesting that Wiercioch gave up $12.19 million to sign in Vancouver? Is the Winnipeg tax now up to 500%?

This is pure speculation. There is nothing to base it on. It is more likely that Wiercioch was just glad to get an offer and signed the first one he got.
 

surixon

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patrik wiercioch went to the nucks for 800k and he's pretty much kulikov but with good advanced stats and costs a 5th of the price

Its probably more how they make their impact that swayed the Jets. Weircoch makes his predominantly through offense where Kulikov makes his through defense. I think the Jets need defensive impact more so than offensive impact. Add to that Kulikov is a solid to good Pker where Weiricotch isn't and it's another reason the org likely leaned towards him.

Something else to point out, earlier on in his career Kulikov was a pretty solid offensive dmen when used in a lesser role like Weircotch has been used. I think the Jets are betting on him being able to rediscover his offense ontop of a now solid defensive game as he likely won't be asked to handle near as tough match ups as he played the last few years. I think it's a pretty reasonable bet for the org to take.
 

Gm0ney

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Rather overpay than do nothing at that spot.
We were complaining for Chevy to do somehting and we complain when he does it.
Let's not forget he is only 26 years old and probably wanted a deal for at least 5 years.

Yeah, Chevy's only had, what, 5 years to address the problem at LD? The only option was Kulikov on July 1 for $4.3M. Or, you know, Schlemko for a 5th, or Weircioch for cheap, or whoever over the last couple of years. I'm sure there've been lots of upgrades on league-worst guys like Stu and Chiarot during that period. But I guess when you're used to seeing Chevy bring in guys like Strait and MacWilliam to plug that hole, the bar is set so low that Kulikov at $4.3M seems like a smart move... :laugh:
 

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Its probably more how they make their impact that swayed the Jets. Weircoch makes his predominantly through offense where Kulikov makes his through defense. I think the Jets need defensive impact more so than offensive impact. Add to that Kulikov is a solid to good Pker where Weiricotch isn't and it's another reason the org likely leaned towards him.

Something else to point out, earlier on in his career Kulikov was a pretty solid offensive dmen when used in a lesser role like Weircotch has been used. I think the Jets are betting on him being able to rediscover his offense ontop of a now solid defensive game as he likely won't be asked to handle near as tough match ups as he played the last few years. I think it's a pretty reasonable bet for the org to take.

It's a better fit than Wiercoch to me. Money is more, but we can afford it for now. All depends on how well he bounces back or doesn't.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Yeah, Chevy's only had, what, 5 years to address the problem at LD? The only option was Kulikov on July 1 for $4.3M. Or, you know, Schlemko for a 5th, or Weircioch for cheap, or whoever over the last couple of years. I'm sure there've been lots of upgrades on league-worst guys like Stu and Chiarot during that period. But I guess when you're used to seeing Chevy bring in guys like Strait and MacWilliam to plug that hole, the bar is set so low that Kulikov at $4.3M seems like a smart move... :laugh:

Barberio for free and a 750k contract.

Give Chevy credit for addressing the 2 positions of crying need. But I can't forget that both Barberio and Halak were available on waivers last year. According to both DTM's GAR and Hero charts Barberio is a better Dman than Kulikov. According to both last year's sv% and career sv% Halak is a better goalie than Mason.

People could argue the pros and cons of those 4 players endlessly. The thing is that they are close enough to make those inconclusive arguments so the cheaper, easier ones should have been taken.

There's a good chance that those 2 waiver pickups could have gotten us into the playoffs last year. Of course that would have cost us our lottery draft pick .... Oh wait, where did we pick? :sarcasm:
 

Puckatron 3000

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There's a good chance that those 2 waiver pickups could have gotten us into the playoffs last year. Of course that would have cost us our lottery draft pick .... Oh wait, where did we pick? :sarcasm:

I recognize the :sarcasm:, but if you wanted to state that as a serious claim, you'd have to then say it would have cost us one of Perreault, Lowry, Armia or Myers.
 

surixon

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Barberio for free and a 750k contract.

Give Chevy credit for addressing the 2 positions of crying need. But I can't forget that both Barberio and Halak were available on waivers last year. According to both DTM's GAR and Hero charts Barberio is a better Dman than Kulikov. According to both last year's sv% and career sv% Halak is a better goalie than Mason.

People could argue the pros and cons of those 4 players endlessly. The thing is that they are close enough to make those inconclusive arguments so the cheaper, easier ones should have been taken.

There's a good chance that those 2 waiver pickups could have gotten us into the playoffs last year. Of course that would have cost us our lottery draft pick .... Oh wait, where did we pick? :sarcasm:

This Babario stuff needs to stop already he was waived at last year's Tc when everyone had a full roster so he made it through. The 2nd time he was waived he got picked up by a team with higher priority than us on the waiver wire so who knows of Chevy wanted him or not.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I recognize the :sarcasm:, but if you wanted to state that as a serious claim, you'd have to then say it would have cost us one of Perreault, Lowry, Armia or Myers.

Who knows what it might have cost instead? Maybe we end up with the 18th OA pick and trade that down to 24 with LV. Unlikely? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe it costs us both Petan and Dano instead of the trade down.

The point is that making the PO's would have been a good thing. In the past that 'good thing' has been mitigated by lottery picks. That wouldn't have been the case last year since we didn't get the lottery pick anyway. It would have cost something but not that.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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This Babario stuff needs to stop already he was waived at last year's Tc when everyone had a full roster so he made it through. The 2nd time he was waived he got picked up by a team with higher priority than us on the waiver wire so who knows of Chevy wanted him or not.

I was jumping up and down on my keyboard at the time saying "grab him Chevy", in spite of the timing. When he so obviously fit such an obvious need, passing was inexcusable, IMO. Combined, those 2 waiver passes = Chevy's worst ever mistake. Ahead of Frolik, even ahead of Stempniak. OK, 2nd worst. They don't outrank 5 years of Pavelec. :)

In the context of his off-season acquisitions this year, I can't ignore them. In the context of approaching cap management problems, I can't ignore them.
 

Gm0ney

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I was jumping up and down on my keyboard at the time saying "grab him Chevy", in spite of the timing. When he so obviously fit such an obvious need, passing was inexcusable, IMO. Combined, those 2 waiver passes = Chevy's worst ever mistake. Ahead of Frolik, even ahead of Stempniak. OK, 2nd worst. They don't outrank 5 years of Pavelec. :)

In the context of his off-season acquisitions this year, I can't ignore them. In the context of approaching cap management problems, I can't ignore them.

Presumably the guy who was waived by Montreal twice was available for cheap as well - though that would've required both a) identifying Barbario as a decent defenseman, and b) making a trade of some kind.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Presumably the guy who was waived by Montreal twice was available for cheap as well - though that would've required both a) identifying Barbario as a decent defenseman, and b) making a trade of some kind.

One would think. But just taking a guy off waivers is a so much lower level of accomplishment. I'm trying to keep the ask here in-arguably low. Obviously I'm failing. It still gets argued. :)
 

ecolad

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One would think. But just taking a guy off waivers is a so much lower level of accomplishment. I'm trying to keep the ask here in-arguably low. Obviously I'm failing. It still gets argued. :)

Sometimes I just don`t get you guys. All of your points about getting a probable #6 - #7 defender like Weircoch at less cost are absolutely right on the mark. Aren`t you prepared to consider though that Chevy`s objective may have been to get someone with more potential upside - maybe even someone to ultimately play as a #4 or #5 defender and perhaps step into Toby`s skates as his contract plays itself out? Now, I understand that Kulikov hasn`t proven his ability to do so by quite some margin but there are several "mitigating circumstances" that have affected his past year or so. And for those who put value on such things, Kulikov was very highly rated and a first round pick in 2009, and seemed to be developinging well his first year in the pros. Chevy and his scouts may well see untapped upside potential as something of value that others have missed. This is premised upon the notion that Weircoch does not have the same potential to be other than a depth defender. Maybe you have a differing view?

From a differing perspective, are you not prepared to acknowledge that Kulikov has strengths that seem to fit exactly what the Jets need most (good defensive hockey at 5:5; puck moving ability; with experience playing on the PK), while Weircoch is almost the exact opposite in every respect?

I `m firmly in the camp that supports what Chevy is trying to do here and do not find the contract terms terribly indicative of anything. In fact, we may well look back after this year and see things quite differently.
 

mcpw

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People interested in fancy numbers tend to spend a lot of time complaining about, but not investigating the Arcobellos, Parenteaus, Wierciochs and Rundblads of the world. Might be a market inefficiency, might be something currently available counting and tracking stats don't see. Why is Karl Alzner worth 7 Wierciochs? Trying to figure out what makes "hockey people" believe that it is so might make for a nice master thesis topic -- I just don't know which field, is it sociology, psychology, history, mathematics? ;)


Anyway, it's one thing for a fan to complain about these guys when your 2 worst regular defensemen are Chiarot and Stuart, it's another thing when those slots are to be occupied by Kulikov and Myers. I still want to fire Chiarot into the sun, but that ship has sailed with him signing. Our two shiny new Moose defensemen will hopefully limit his ice as the season progresses, and keep Melchiori and Nogier far far away where they belong.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Sometimes I just don`t get you guys. All of your points about getting a probable #6 - #7 defender like Weircoch at less cost are absolutely right on the mark. Aren`t you prepared to consider though that Chevy`s objective may have been to get someone with more potential upside - maybe even someone to ultimately play as a #4 or #5 defender and perhaps step into Toby`s skates as his contract plays itself out? Now, I understand that Kulikov hasn`t proven his ability to do so by quite some margin but there are several "mitigating circumstances" that have affected his past year or so. And for those who put value on such things, Kulikov was very highly rated and a first round pick in 2009, and seemed to be developinging well his first year in the pros. Chevy and his scouts may well see untapped upside potential as something of value that others have missed. This is premised upon the notion that Weircoch does not have the same potential to be other than a depth defender. Maybe you have a differing view?

From a differing perspective, are you not prepared to acknowledge that Kulikov has strengths that seem to fit exactly what the Jets need most (good defensive hockey at 5:5; puck moving ability; with experience playing on the PK), while Weircoch is almost the exact opposite in every respect?

I `m firmly in the camp that supports what Chevy is trying to do here and do not find the contract terms terribly indicative of anything. In fact, we may well look back after this year and see things quite differently.

Kulikov has been less than impressive for a lot longer than the last 2 years. He has never lived up to his draft rating. He may still have a little upside but this will be his 27 YO season. Even slow developing Dmen don't often improve much at this stage of their careers. It is probably reasonable to expect a little bounceback with improved health.

I think you underrate Wiercioch. He is an underappreciated 5/6 now. I expect Kulikov to be roughly a 4/5. FWIW, Barberio already is a 4, IMO. I'm not down on Kulikov at all. I just think he is being overpaid. Chevy paid Brendan Smith price and got Patrick Wiercioch quality. OTOH, he got better than Alzner for less money. Attaboy Chevy! :handclap:
 

surixon

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Kulikov has been less than impressive for a lot longer than the last 2 years. He has never lived up to his draft rating. He may still have a little upside but this will be his 27 YO season. Even slow developing Dmen don't often improve much at this stage of their careers. It is probably reasonable to expect a little bounceback with improved health.

I think you underrate Wiercioch. He is an underappreciated 5/6 now. I expect Kulikov to be roughly a 4/5. FWIW, Barberio already is a 4, IMO. I'm not down on Kulikov at all. I just think he is being overpaid. Chevy paid Brendan Smith price and got Patrick Wiercioch quality. OTOH, he got better than Alzner for less money. Attaboy Chevy! :handclap:

I don't think this is fair. He was more than living up to it his first 4 years in the league. He hasn't his last 4 while playing a defensive heavy role. His metrics where similiar to Patrick's when deployed with similar zone starts but he played more mibutes. We have no idea how Wericotch would fair playing the defensive minutes that Kulikov was tasked with as he's always been sheltered with limited minutes. Imo Kulikov is a competent number 4 dmen if used in a more balanced role.
 

Royale With Cheese

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Everyone comparing Kulikov to the bargain basement guys like Schlemko, Weircioch, Oduya, etc.

I don't think Chevy paid Kulikov all that money to deliver what the above guys do. He must see Kulikov as a top 4 player on the Jets to offer that contract. I'm not saying he's right or wrong to do so, but no GM will pay a bottom pairing defenceman that kind of money.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I don't think this is fair. He was more than living up to it his first 4 years in the league. He hasn't his last 4 while playing a defensive heavy role. His metrics where similiar to Patrick's when deployed with similar zone starts but he played more mibutes. We have no idea how Wericotch would fair playing the defensive minutes that Kulikov was tasked with as he's always been sheltered with limited minutes. Imo Kulikov is a competent number 4 dmen if used in a more balanced role.

I don't agree with the bolded. You may have other points about usage etc. but there is no sharp change in his performance. He improved gradually and slightly to the '15 season and then fell off gradually and slightly since. The difference from his best to his worst season is not all that great if we make a bit of an allowance for his injury last year. Otherwise he has never been either very good or very bad. If he rebounds to his best he isn't an Enstrom replacement. That would be a #2. He might be a 2nd pair Dman if we get lucky.

Wiercioch has also fallen off a bit over the last couple of years. I can't go into sufficient detail to determine if there is a usage explanation for that or not. Over their careers Wiercioch has had better numbers in every year in the NHL. He has done that while playing only about half as many games and fewer min/gm.

I'm not making any attempt at an exact comparison between the 2 players. A superficial look at some statistics says that Wiercioch has been the more effective player. That is sufficient when Kulikov is making five and a half times as much money to know that there is a market inefficiency, on at least one end, more likely both IMO. Wiercioch is a bargain and Kulikov is overpaid. Are they equal in value? I can't say that. Should they be at 5.5:1? No way.
 

Imcanadianeh

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I wonder if other fan bases have as many fans that conplain when their GM doesn't pick up border line NHL players like Barbario.
 
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