Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Spector: Kassian Extension Before Trade Deadline? Anything Else?

[McDNicks17]

Nurse is 6th in the league in 5v5 TOI/GP because the Oilers don't trust a third pair.

It is objectively true that they only play more 5v5 minutes because Klefbom misses shifts - because they only average 1 shift more than him at 5v5 and Klefbom demonstrably misses EV shifts due to the PP. If the situation were reversed and Nurse played all of the 5v4, Klefbom would likely average multiple minutes more than Nurse at 5v5 a game. It won't actually surprise me if Oscar winds up having more EV TOI than Nurse does by the season if they're both healthy because Klefbom's often double shifted during crunch time games where Nurse winds up averaging 5 fewer minutes.

There's no question the Nurse and Bear pairing is the Oilers best... it just happens to be because they contain the second and third best defenseman on the team and the gap between that and what's left to play with Oscar is significant.

It isn't objectively true though. If you look at the shift charts, the same thing happens every time. Klefbom plays the PP, Nurse/Bear play the shift after, third pairing plays short shift, Klefbom is back out there and then it goes back to Nurse/Bear. Klefbom isn't losing a shift there, he's just playing it after the third pairing rather than before.

I'm curious where the Nurse getting five fewer minutes in crunch time thing is coming from. I don't really see it showing up in the 5v5 numbers. Is it because Klefbom plays ~70% of the team's OT ice time as McDrai's third?

 

[OilerTitanFan]

RNH does not equal either player mentioned.

Every single player you mentioned is better than him in every metric.

How is RNH a lesser player than those I mentioned? Those other players like Couturier, Jost and Point would end up with similar stats as RNH if they were here. RNH does not have the luxury of 2 elite linemates. Put RNH with Mcdavid and you will see similar production as the aforementioned. We are in no position to dump RNH unless a player of similar quality comes back. Another player of similar quality would be Ryan johansen. RNH with his contact and numbers would be much closer to Johansen than Turris. People here dumping on RNH like he is a 6mill dollar Kyle Turris.

 

[SK13]

It isn't objectively true though. If you look at the shift charts, the same thing happens every time. Klefbom plays the PP, Nurse/Bear play the shift after, third pairing plays short shift, Klefbom is back out there and then it goes back to Nurse/Bear. Klefbom isn't losing a shift there, he's just playing it after the third pairing rather than before.

What you're describing is Oscar losing multiple shifts over the game. The Oilers play Oscar, Darnell and Ethan 19 minutes 5v5 a game. They average a shift every 2.5 shifts. He's losing a half shift or so by being third on rotation after a 5v4 shift, and that's if Nurse and Bear don't play two shifts before his next, which is something that has happened. It's not even just 5v4, either. Klefbom is also the #1 4v5 defenseman on the team in usage. It takes away. Logically much moreso than 45 seconds of EV ice that Nurse gets.

Like I said: It's clear that if Nurse were playing 4 minutes a game 5v4 at an average of 1 minute a shift, Klefbom would average 3-4 more minutes EV than him.

I'm curious where the Nurse getting five fewer minutes in crunch time thing is coming from. I don't really see it showing up in the 5v5 numbers. Is it because Klefbom plays ~70% of the team's OT ice time as McDrai's third?

Purely anecdotal and memory based so maybe not so valuable on my part. The games where Klefbom comes away with 28+ minutes often find Nurse in the 23 minute range. Being the go-to 3v3 defenseman is just more demonstrating his firm placement as the teams #1 defenseman. Tippett plays him 5v4, 4v5, 3v3 and 4v4 moreso than Nurse and Klefbom averages one fewer EV shift a game. I don't think it's super subjective to see why, given how much more special teams he plays than Nurse, why he might lose that shift.

 

[Del Preston]

Rick Dhaliwal (TSN 1040) says Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski have both asked to be traded.

Edit:

 

[3IR]

Rick Dhaliwal (TSN 1040) says Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski have both asked to be traded.

Damn, a combined 8 points. Didn’t realize how awful a season they were having.

Change of scenery makes sense.

 

[King1s]

We get it, you're upset because the team isn't failing like you hoped, but defending a racist for the lolz at the organization is bad Really Bad look. Might be time for different hobbies. I suggest caving.

 

[SK13]

Not that I think these two teams are... uh... tempered for a deal right now, but the Pulju/Bennett stuff from last year probably makes more on-paper sense now than ever.

 

[MinimaMoralia]

Rick Dhaliwal (TSN 1040) says Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski have both asked to be traded.

Bit of a blow to the flames after they put so much into both guys for years, and are unlikely to get great returns at this point.
Love it.

 

[OilerTitanFan]

What planet are you on?

You can get Bonino for a 4th?

Rakell is a “reclamation project”?

It used to be oiler fans overrating their own players. Now we have a bunch of posters overrating other teams players. Like how is Josh Anderson worth a first? Pretty soon people here will offer up a 1st for Zack Rinaldo and think they got cristiano ronaldo. Bonino is near the end of his career. He is equivalent to a Todd marchant that played in Anaheim in 2007 who served a purpose and that is what bonino is. His team will not make the playoffs and he will be a deadline dump to a team who is in contention. Once he gets dumped for a 3rd or 4th, people here will be crying about Holland missing the boat on this. Bonino is only a slight upgrade to players like Nygaard and Haas.

 

[3IR]

Not that I think these two teams are... uh... tempered for a deal right now, but the Pulju/Bennett stuff from last year probably makes more on-paper sense now than ever.

I honestly don’t know if I’d be willing to take on his 2.5m caphit for 2 years unless we could send some salary back.

 

[OilerTitanFan]

Rick Dhaliwal (TSN 1040) says Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski have both asked to be traded.

Khaira and Benning straight up for Bennett and Jankowski. Easy trade to make here.

 

[McDNicks17]

What you're describing is Oscar losing multiple shifts over the game. The Oilers play Oscar, Darnell and Ethan 19 minutes 5v5 a game. They average a shift every 2.5 shifts. He's losing a half shift or so by being third on rotation after a 5v4 shift, and that's if Nurse and Bear don't play two shifts before his next, which is something that has happened. It's not even just 5v4, either. Klefbom is also the #1 4v5 defenseman on the team in usage. It takes away. Logically much moreso than 45 seconds of EV ice that Nurse gets.

Like I said: It's clear that if Nurse were playing 4 minutes a game 5v4 at an average of 1 minute a shift, Klefbom would average 3-4 more minutes 5v5 than him.

I'm just not seeing it. I've skimmed a few games and Klef has got a full shift in between Nurse/Bear's next shifts after every PP. Logically, there shouldn't be any lost shifts.

The main thing I've noticed though is when everyone is rested(i.e. at the beginning of periods), Tipp always goes with Nurse/Bear.

 

[McDNicks17]

Aww. Sounds like the Dhaliwal rumour was just a misquote.

Both those guys would have been decent for the #3C spot.

 

[McShogun99]

Trading JP for Bennet could blow up in the Oilers face. We all know that Bennet is nothing more then a 30 point 3rd/4th liner but JP could still end up being a 20 goal/2nd liner.

 

[GOilers88]

Trading JP for Bennet could blow up in the Oilers face. We all know that Bennet is nothing more then a 30 point 3rd/4th liner but JP could still end up being a 20 goal/2nd liner.

I mean if the kid refuses to play for the team I don't see how it's a blow up if they acquire a decent third line player for him.

Unless of course there are some much better offers out there. But I personally like Bennett and would swap them in a heartbeat. Throw in Chiasson to make Bennett's caphit null and void?

 

[SK13]

I'm just not seeing it. I've skimmed a few games and Klef has got a full shift in between Nurse/Bear's next shifts after every PP. Logically, there shouldn't be any lost shifts.

Well, no. Let's say you're completely right (not my memory, but I haven't done the work, so let's go with it). Oscar averages a EV shift every 2.5 shifts at 19 minutes a game, which means playing the third shift after a PP would still accumulate to a loss of expected ice time throughout the game. If you expect to go 1-2-1-2-3 and always wind up going 2-3-1, that's a net loss where 1 appears over time.

A good way to look at this is to find the games where there are as few special teams events as possible and see their usage then. The Oilers have played 9 games this year with 3 special teams events. In those games, this was the average EV ice time of Klefbom v. Nurse.

Klefbom: 20:29, 18:10*, 23:02, 24:09, 25:46, 20:30, 21:12, 23:19, 21:12
Nurse: 20:49, 20:53, 22:27, 17:11, 22:21, 20:36, 20:08, 22:38, 23:55

Klefbom's EV average: 21:59
Nurse's EV average: 20:58

Nurse just averages a minute less in the ~20% of games where there are few special teams events, albeit there were I think 2 OT games in this mix and Klefbom has a few minutes of 3v3 icetime in here. Not enough to NOT average more than Nurse, but fair enough.

This further demonstrates that 5v5 ice-time is definitely diminshed by heavy special teams usage. I believe I already showcased this in practice on another team with John Carlson and the Washington Capitals.

* That's a game against the VGK where Klefbom played 5:20 out of 6:00 on the PP. So not exactly in-keeping with a low event speical teams night but the VGK had no PPs and it was three events, so I'll count it anyway.

The main thing I've noticed though is when everyone is rested(i.e. at the beginning of periods), Tipp always goes with Nurse/Bear.

He doesn't super often start McDavid, either.

It's just match up stuff.

 

[McShogun99]

I mean if the kid refuses to play for the team I don't see how it's a blow up if they acquire a decent third line player for him.

Unless of course there are some much better offers out there. But I personally like Bennett and would swap them in a heartbeat. Throw in Chiasson to make Bennett's caphit null and void?

I'd rather let JP rot in Finland until he's 27 then have him play for the Flames, especially if the best return for him is Bennett.

 

[OilerTitanFan]

I think we should give the Sharks a call and inquire about Thornton and Marleau. How about a 1st, JP and 2021 2nd for Thornton and Marleau. Put them on our third line and roll the dice on them. Those two fossils are one year away from retirement and this is the time to make that move and make a playoff run.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I think we should give the Sharks a call and inquire about Thornton and Marleau. How about a 1st, JP and 2021 2nd for Thornton and Marleau. Put them on our third line and roll the dice on them. Those two fossils are one year away from retirement and this is the time to make that move and make a playoff run.

They absolutely do not have that much value and if that's the Shark's ask, you hang up the phone.

That's a package that gets you Hertl or Meier and Thornton.

 

[Darkwinter]

I think we should give the Sharks a call and inquire about Thornton and Marleau. How about a 1st, JP and 2021 2nd for Thornton and Marleau. Put them on our third line and roll the dice on them. Those two fossils are one year away from retirement and this is the time to make that move and make a playoff run.

no the Chia train has left

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

#1D don't play the third most 5v5 minutes on their team.

He plays the 5th most minutes per game in the entire f***ing league, you got to short change his minutes somewhere.

NHL.com Stats

I've seen you make this argument multiple times, just stop it, we override McDavid, Drai, and Klef as it is, it's not reasonable to try and squeeze any more minutes out of them than what we are already doing.

 

[Darkwinter]

I don't get it. Why are people trying to dump off our first for players in their 30s and with maybe a year or two if lucky left? Anaheim fans are out of their minds with what they're asking for.. Sj players are at the end of their careers and were dumping off high picks and players .i don't get it why

 

[McDNicks17]

He plays the 5th most minutes per game in the entire ****ing league, you got to short change his minutes somewhere.

NHL.com Stats

I've seen you make this argument multiple times, just stop it, we override McDavid, Drai, and Klef as it is, it's not reasonable to try and squeeze any more minutes out of them than what we are already doing.

This team has no #1D and no one playing like a #1D.

It's silly to throw that title around and act like any one of Klef, Nurse or Bear are definitively above the others.

 

[Sinister]

So much for this being a rumours and proposals thread.

 

[duul]

Would offer up quite a bit to get Sam Bennett. Love him as a player, and he was best buddies with McDavid in minor hockey during the OHL draft year.