Proposal: Rumors and Proposals Thread: An Athanasiou a Day Would Keep the Flames at Bay

[StoveTopStauffer]

Sign Datsyuk as a cheap 3C in a cup run

Never going to happen

 

[Kolja]

Ideally we get a player who can play middle six C/LW for scraps. Does such option exist in the real world outside HF?

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I am looking at 58% GF% with McDavid off the ice over the last 25 GP (January/February) and top 10 5v5 performance in the NHL in that same period.

This team was "saved" at 5v5 by McDavid in October, played decent 5v5 with/without him in November, slumped hard in December (bad with him, really bad without him) and has been playing very good 5v5 since the beginning of January (edit: actually better without him than with him...).

The December slump is basically what skews the overall numbers for the team as a whole. The extreme slow start of our bottom 9 in October skews the with/without McDavid numbers.

(source naturalstatrick)

5v5 - 2019/2020 October - February
McDavid 50.96 GF%
Team 46.44 GF%
Team w.o. McDavid 42.96 GF%


5v5 - 2019/2020 November - February
McDavid 45.00 GF%
Team 45.50 GF%
Team w.o. McDavid 45.87 GF%
- i.e. remove October and the discrepancy between McDavid and the rest goes away. The reason for the low GF% number in general is because of the December slump.


5v5 - 2019/2020 October, November, January - February
McDavid 55.00 GF%
Team 50.82 GF%
Team w.o. McDavid 45.65 GF%
- i.e. remove December and the team 5v5 GF% does not look that bad. The reason for the difference in with/without McDavid is because of the bottom 9's slow start in October.

All teams slump, lines & groups of players slump at different times on both good teams and bad teams; I don't think we should kid our self that we are an ok 5v5 team, lots of teams look statistically better if you can remove one inconvenient stretch.

If it was a uniquely peculiar set of circumstances like both your starting and back-up goalie got injured and you're forced to throw some AHL kid in the deep end, I mean sure put an asterik on the GF% for that stretch, but we were healthy and just played poorly, it's part of who this team is and likewise for the good stretches.

 

[bertty]

Ideally we get a player who can play middle six C/LW for scraps. Does such option exist in the real world outside HF?

Granlund

 

[LaGu]

All teams slump, lines & groups of players slump at different times on both good teams and bad teams; I don't think we should kid our self that we are an ok 5v5 team, lots of teams look statistically better if you can remove one inconvenient stretch.

If it was a uniquely peculiar set of circumstances like both your starting and back-up goalie got injured and you're forced to throw some AHL kid in the deep end, I mean sure put an asterik on the GF% for that stretch, but we were healthy and just played poorly, it's part of who this team is and likewise for the good stretches.

The point is to provide context for advanced statistics. If a team wins 5 games in a row with a 1 goal margin and then loses 1 game 8-1 what would you say that team is, considering we using GF% as a measure? Bad? I mean it could be bad, but you'd definitely need to provide me with a lot more information to strengthen your argument and for me to have confidence in what you are saying.

If I would be in the business of using just convenient stats I could have just said that we have great stats in more than half of the games we have played (obviously looking at the ones we've won). That would be using convenient stats. On the other hand if you are looking at a sample size as small as we are right now and don't include context as I just did in the previous post then I would probably argue that it is you that are using convenient stats, probably because it fits your narrative.

The bottom 6 was basically completely new going into this season and we had a new coach. I know that there were several posters which at the start of the season questioned the narrative that the bottom six were useless, and that they wouldn't not provide any kind of secondary offense for the full season. At the same time players like McDavid and Draisaitl are not as dependent on system play and/or coaching to be effective and they came out flying. McDavid was on ice for 17 GF and 7 GA (71 GF%) in October, while the rest of the team was on ice for 8 GF and 18 GA (31 GF%). Those are crazy numbers, and to an outside observer obviously outliers. Looking at the rest of the season, i.e. the following 42 games played the GF% numbers are even between McDavid and the rest. If one quarter of your dataset off-sets the results to that extent I would consider it essential to provide this kind of context, not to do so would be disingenuous.

The second part basically follows the same logic. There were many theories about why we were losing but in the end it does not matter, what matter again is the context of the numbers you are using. I didn't go down to game by game basis, I went for month by month. It is possible to break it down further by looking (conveniently) at Dec 4 - Dec 27, 12 games with the team at 31% GF%. The rest of the season, i.e. 46 games, 50% GF%. Again, that is very important context if you want to understand the numbers and essential context if you want to draw conclusions from the data.

For me this kind of goes towards the downside of advanced stats, many people don't realise how much a bad stretch of games can influence the results. At the minimum I think this needs to be pointed out when using these numbers.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

With all the excitement yesterday it might have been missed, but I like the Nygard extension.

 

[Kaniac]

With all the excitement yesterday it might have been missed, but I like the Nygard extension.

I like it alot to. The dude has wheels. Having him,Archi, and Yamamoto out there like little firecrackers is a great thing to have. You can essentially have a speedster on every line.

Sad thing is, I've seen some people on twitter complaining about the contract. Like seriously?? It's a hair over league minimum for one year. Worth every cent.

 

[PaPaDee]

Granlund

Wonder what the cost would be. Would JP have any value?

 

[PaPaDee]

With all the excitement yesterday it might have been missed, but I like the Nygard extension.

for that price, can’t really go wrong.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

Countdown to TradeCentre: Could the Minnesota Wild move Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba? - TSN.ca

LeBrun notes the Oilers are believed to have interest in Ottawa Senators centre Jean-Gabriel Pageau, but Holland is unlikely to move his first-round pick unless it's conditional and the Senators are likely want a better a return than that. As for Jesse Puljujarvi, who's currently listed at No .39, LeBrun believes the Oilers are more likely to wait until June to move him when there will be a more robust market.

 

[bertty]

Wonder what the cost would be. Would JP have any value?

I think Pulju is too much in this case. I am high on him. I think something like 2nd and cap dump is appropriate.

 

[Lewy]

Dylan Strome was a healthy scratch for the hawks last night. I understand he’s been slumping a bit. Any chance he could be pried loose before the deadline if the Hawks fall out completely?

 

[Little Fury]

I am looking at 58% GF% with McDavid off the ice over the last 25 GP (January/February) and top 10 5v5 performance in the NHL in that same period.

Last 25 games takes us back to early December. They've played 14 games in January and February, which is where you're getting the 58% GF%. That matches up with the stretch when Yamomoto was called p and the RNH-Drai-Yamo line put together. It appears that line is driving the results, which is good news going forward as McDavid has been struggling in that same stretch dragging around fourth line wingers. But the rest of the team is still below 50%.

So we're basically looking at a situation where we have one line at any given time that can float the boat and the rest of the team is underwater. Which goes to what I have been saying all along which is we need to add a top six winger and we needed that long before McDavid was hurt.

 

[Canovin]

Dylan Strome was a healthy scratch for the hawks last night. I understand he’s been slumping a bit. Any chance he could be pried loose before the deadline if the Hawks fall out completely?

Strome sitting out was a tank move for Lafreniere