Blue Jays Discussion: Roy Halladay officially inducted in the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Class

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phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Stroman trade takes away some of Bichette's spotlight. Im surprised Bichette got the call now but moreso in absence of a Galvis trade (unless one is already done).

Going to be a fun team now and next season.

2020 Jays:
C: Jansen
1B: Tellez
2B: Biggio
SS: Bichette
3B: Vladdy
RF: Grichuk
CF: Alford?
LF: Gurriel
DH: Hernandez

Bench: Maile, Urena, McKinney and Drury

Rotation: Sanchez, Shoemaker, Borucki, Thornton, Pannone/Kay/Waguespack

Pen: Tepera, Biagini, Phelps, Mayza, Romano, SRF, Gaviglio

I assume the Jays add at least 2 bats possibly replacing Urena (more experienced SS) and Hernandez. They will add at least 1 starter, likely 2 in how they did with Shoemaker, Bucholz and Richard - only this time i hope they add better players. And they will add some short term pen arms to sell at the deadline.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
10,760
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How do you get to $70M? They have $30M committed if I subtract Galvis, and the arb guys I would keep maybe come in at $15M put together (and more like $10M if they non-tender Sanchez).

They are going to have so, so much money to spend this offseason, which absolutely terrifies me.

Meh... they spent $45 million this year for a backup catcher, terrible DH, and retired SS on other teams. It would take a lot of work for them to find worse ways to spend that money.
 

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
11,629
6,249
Stroman trade takes away some of Bichette's spotlight. Im surprised Bichette got the call now but moreso in absence of a Galvis trade (unless one is already done).

Going to be a fun team now and next season.

2020 Jays:
C: Jansen
1B: Tellez
2B: Biggio
SS: Bichette
3B: Vladdy
RF: Grichuk
CF: Alford?
LF: Gurriel
DH: Hernandez

Bench: Maile, Urena, McKinney and Drury

Rotation: Sanchez, Shoemaker, Borucki, Thornton, Pannone/Kay/Waguespack

Pen: Tepera, Biagini, Phelps, Mayza, Romano, SRF, Gaviglio

I assume the Jays add at least 2 bats possibly replacing Urena (more experienced SS) and Hernandez. They will add at least 1 starter, likely 2 in how they did with Shoemaker, Bucholz and Richard - only this time i hope they add better players. And they will add some short term pen arms to sell at the deadline.

Kay probably is more of a midseason call up next year, but that's a a good projection.
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
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Toronto
Meh... they spent $45 million this year for a backup catcher, terrible DH, and retired SS on other teams. It would take a lot of work for them to find worse ways to spend that money.

As long as they don't give term I'll be fine.

I'm pretty confident they're smart enough to figure it out, but there's always one moron team that wins 70 games and spends the offseason splashing the cash and hopefully its not us.

The fear is more that if ownership actually stopped them from doing what they wanted at the end of 2016/2017, then they may look at the ~23K per game we'll end up drawing this year and tell them to get to $100M to try to be competitive next year.
 

IceColdBear

Registered User
Apr 5, 2016
545
631
Stroman trade takes away some of Bichette's spotlight. Im surprised Bichette got the call now but moreso in absence of a Galvis trade (unless one is already done).

Going to be a fun team now and next season.

2020 Jays:
C: Jansen
1B: Tellez
2B: Biggio
SS: Bichette
3B: Vladdy
RF: Grichuk
CF: Alford?
LF: Gurriel
DH: Hernandez

Bench: Maile, Urena, McKinney and Drury

Rotation: Sanchez, Shoemaker, Borucki, Thornton, Pannone/Kay/Waguespack

Pen: Tepera, Biagini, Phelps, Mayza, Romano, SRF, Gaviglio

I assume the Jays add at least 2 bats possibly replacing Urena (more experienced SS) and Hernandez. They will add at least 1 starter, likely 2 in how they did with Shoemaker, Bucholz and Richard - only this time i hope they add better players. And they will add some short term pen arms to sell at the deadline.

It will be fun to watch that lineup grow, but that rotation is incredibly weak.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,491
8,293
How do you get to $70M? They have $30M committed if I subtract Galvis, and the arb guys I would keep maybe come in at $15M put together (and more like $10M if they non-tender Sanchez).

They are going to have so, so much money to spend this offseason, which absolutely terrifies me.

Going off of Baseball reference; they have them at 91.9M all in next season. Subtract Galvis 5.5M, Giles 10M (a guess), and Travis at 2M (release). I got about 75M. BR has some big arb estimates totaling 45.5M - dont know where or how they would spend that much but i used their numbers.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
10,760
5,910
As long as they don't give term I'll be fine.

I'm pretty confident they're smart enough to figure it out, but there's always one moron team that wins 70 games and spends the offseason splashing the cash and hopefully its not us.

The fear is more that if ownership actually stopped them from doing what they wanted at the end of 2016/2017, then they may look at the ~23K per game we'll end up drawing this year and tell them to get to $100M to try to be competitive next year.

That's fair. If they have a bunch of money to spend, hopefully they:

1. Spend it on short-term deals for guys they can flip.
2. If they're going longer term, make sure it's an impact guy (like... I wouldn't complain about a multi-year deal for Gerrit Cole).
3. Absorb bad salaries from other teams in order to get the kinds of assets they want.
4. Extend the kids they want to build around.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Blue Jays Career (Qualified)

ERA

1.Clemens 2.33
2.Halladay 3.39
3.Key 3.39
4.Stieb 3.42
5.Alexander 3.61
6.Stroman 3.71

ERA-

1.Clemens 50
2.Halladay 73
3.Stieb 82
4.Key 82
5.Alexander 86
6.Stroman 87

FIP

1.Clemens 2.44
2.Halladay 3.43
3.Stroman 3.61
4.Key 3.67
5.Morrow 3.71

FIP-

1.Clemens 54
2.Halladay 76
3.Stroman 84
4.Burnett 86
5.Guzman 88

MLB Last 6yrs (i.e. since Stro's rookie year)

87era- (T-#32 of 192 qualified SP)
84fip- (T-#19 of 192 qualified SP)
84xfip- (T-#20 of 192 qualified SP)

This season

64era- (T-#12 of 153 SP IP leaders)
77fip- (T-#24 of 153 SP IP leaders)
88xfip- (T-#39 of 153 SP IP leaders)
 

TheMadHatTrick

Registered User
Nov 2, 2008
6,631
2,676
A couple of possible guys we could be looking at in the Sogard trade:

Drew Strotman, RHP: Small school, injured TJ guy like Merryweather. Mid rotation type stuff if he returns to health. And hey we get Stroman with an extra T. He's a 40+FV so this might be too much to hope for, but his injury, like Merryweather's, makes it possible since it would explain why he has to be a PTBNL.

Reilly O'Brien, RHP: Another small school right hander, the type Shatkins loved in Cleveland. 6'4 converted reliever with power stuff. Legacy player as well, and he's in AA already so fits with our desired timeline.

Curtis Taylor, RHP: Obligatory connect the Jays to a Canadian player pick. 6'6 Canadian right hander drafted out of BC. Strictly a reliever but has power stuff and is pitching well in AA.

Peter Fairbanks, RHP: Would be surprised if he's not one of the names. 25-year old former 2-time TJ guy. Huge, 6'6 right hander with power stuff. Reliever only, and Rule 5 eligible this off season. They just received him for Nick Solak a few weeks ago.

Joe Ryan, RHP: Another guy I think it could be. 23-year old in High-A. Has trackmab friendly stuff and ridonk k-rate. He's in that Joey Murray species of pitcher but with better velocity.
Matt Peguero, RHP: 19-year old who hasn't gotten out of rookie ball yet but has power stuff up to 102mph, and late-blooming potential.

Joel Peguero, RHP: Unrelated as far as I know. 22-year old who hasn't gotten out of A-ball. Power stuff up to 102mph, but is a reliever only and short fwiw.
 

Punch Drunk Loov

Gaaaaary Roberts!
Dec 6, 2011
4,648
2,121
Kay seems to be a promising player who we'll likely see in the MLB in not too long. I'm disappointed that he's struggling, and that he's in his mid-20s. Seems risky.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,491
8,293
It will be fun to watch that lineup grow, but that rotation is incredibly weak.

Pitching as a whole is incredibly weak. Prospects and 2nd year guys need to make strides in addition to making trades or signings and better than guys like Richard and Bucholz. Shoemaker was a good get. But they might have to play in a better tier like Hamels (who likely wont come), Miley, Odorizzi, Nova, Roark, Pineda etc. Maybe Porcello can come on a 1 year deal to rebuild value?

One guy i think the Jays should target is Happ. Not doing well as Yankee and he is owed 17M next season, Yankees might want to free up money after the season to search for an upgrade. I proposed Happ and Frazier for Sanchez before Sanchez went downhill and before the Yankees made him unavailable again.

Was thinking Happ and a different prospect to just take the salary back. Then trade Happ at the deadline if you can rebuild his value.

Happ
Sanchez
Shoemaker
Borucki
Thornton
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
10,760
5,910
Going off of Baseball reference; they have them at 91.9M all in next season. Subtract Galvis 5.5M, Giles 10M (a guess), and Travis at 2M (release). I got about 75M. BR has some big arb estimates totaling 45.5M - dont know where or how they would spend that much but i used their numbers.

I don't get it either. I struggle to get to $30 million...

Giles $10 million
Sanchez $5 million
Shoemaker $5 million
Travis $2 million
Tepera $2 million
Drury $2 million
Biagini $1.5 million
Maile $1 million
Pompey $600K
 

Woodman19

Registered User
Jun 14, 2008
18,494
1,869
Does anyone think Kay's BABIP and HR% from AAA is sustainable? If you squint you can see a solid bottom of the rotation starter there which has value.
 
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phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,491
8,293
I don't get it either. I struggle to get to $30 million...

Giles $10 million
Sanchez $5 million
Shoemaker $5 million
Travis $2 million
Tepera $2 million
Drury $2 million
Biagini $1.5 million
Maile $1 million
Pompey $600K

Although not on their list maybe they have yet to remove Stroman from that number? Just a guess.

or its an error.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Going off of Baseball reference; they have them at 91.9M all in next season. Subtract Galvis 5.5M, Giles 10M (a guess), and Travis at 2M (release). I got about 75M. BR has some big arb estimates totaling 45.5M - dont know where or how they would spend that much but i used their numbers.

yeah the bulk of that B/R estimated payroll is arbitration rewards to some questionable targes, and $14m to tulo.
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
18,881
1,974
Toronto
Does anyone think Kay's BABIP and HR% from AAA is sustainable? If you squint you can see a solid bottom of the rotation starter there which has value.

This thread sums up my thoughts on AAA stats.



That being said, unless he's got some Marco Estrada-like spin rates, his AA stats of a 2.6% HR/FB ratio with what's more or less a 1:2 GB/FB ratio are probably more unsustainable.
 

Mike Jones

Registered User
Apr 12, 2007
12,485
2,876
Calgary
I don't understand why Tampa would make a subsequent move. They are a half game back of the wild card, aren't they trying to get in? And Sogard can help them.
A lot of teams seem to be questioning the need to build up for a one game gamble. Why send young assets away for veterans if all you're doing is taking a chance on just one game?
 
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