Prospect Info: Round 5, Pick #127: Wyatte Wylie, D, Everett (WHL) [March 10, 2020: signed a 3 yr entry level pact]

Magua

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Apr 25, 2016
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I watched 2 games of his last night focusing just on him (not saying that's the best sample, but he's a simple player too). For a late round pick Wylie has NHL potential to my eyes. He's an older player in the class, eligible for the AHL in his D+2 season, and he was 12th in his WHL defense class in points/game at 5v5 (besides the top 5, only 9th was also drafted). Realistically, he looks very much like another floor, low upside player. I think he could be a #6 type, if he hits. As an organizational depth piece, he's a respectable player. That's not a negative for a 5th round pick, though there were some real upside players available who went right after, like Spencer Stastney and Danila Zhuravlyov on defense.

I always ask myself in looking at a prospect as they project to the NHL: "Where do they WIN?" As in, what are they projectably above average or standout in? I'm not really sure where Wylie wins, as there's nothing I think he's above average in, but there's not much in the way of weakness either. He's vanilla and bland, but he's competent positionally in his own end, competitive, can skate fairly well, can handle a puck. There's no creativity in his game though in any zone. Offensively, he basically stayed at the point and took shots or moved pucks quickly in the cycle (some nice one touches too); though read the play well and would move into space as needed. And while he could make a first pass, under pressure he could err towards the safe play, either rimming it or chipping it out, instead of working to create a lane. He's a conservative player who does his job and blends in and tries to not make mistakes. I liked his gap control though; he was up through the NZ.
 

Magua

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Apr 25, 2016
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Huron of the Lakes
It wasn't a great WHL draft, but on a side note, this is the only WHL player they've drafted in 2 years under Mark Greig, and they've been pretty consistent in giving him picks.

I've mentioned this before -- and yes, it's hard to know what goes on behind the scenes -- but I really don't think he's anything special as a scout. This is the guy who, on record, championed for the Klotz as our 3rd round pick way back when. You could give him Sanheim as he wasn't a consensus pick, though 1st round picks are very much a full staff type thing (and he played at the u18s and built his hype). Patrick and Provorov aren't credit worthy. But you look at his record: Sbisa, Noebels, Leier, Goulbourne, in that behind the scenes video wanted Mirco Mueller at #11.....and under Hextall (where all scouting improved), Fazleev, Twarynski, now Wylie. This guy just never hits on scout's picks. He seemingly always loves safe, floor players too.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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I'd point out that the last few years, "depth" on defense meant Alt, Willcox, Drake and god forbid, Brennan.
In other words, while defense first physical guys may not excite some people we had to use #11 and a 2nd rd pick to have any of these guys in the system.

Now we've used #50 and a 4th rd pick for physical guys, and a 5th two years in a row for defense first high IQ guys (Hogberg, Wylie).
I'd say Ron managed to maintain system balance at a relatively low cost.
 
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dats81

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Jan 22, 2011
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Based on what they already have in the pipeline, College eligibility and how Hextall likes to slow cook his prospects, I'm really wondering if he has just stocked the cupboard for his replacement as GM ;)

Kalynuk, St.Ivany and now Wylie seem long shots and likely won't make the roster within the next 5 years which is a long time in pro sports.
 
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deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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Anyone taken after pick #100 is a long-shot and usually takes 5+ years to make the NHL.
After the 3rd rd you're drafting for your AHL franchise and organizational depth.
If you hit on a lottery ticket, throw a party.
 

Curufinwe

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Feb 28, 2013
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It's better for me if unpopular prospects have last names near the end of the alphabet, so I really like this pick.
 
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deadhead

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It is true, the odds of anyone making it as a NHL starter (i.e. 400+ games, not a couple seasons then waiver or back to the AHL) are really slim after the 3rd round.
200+ 10-14%
400+ 8-10%

So you're going to hit on one of these guys every two years, but most will make it to the AHL and fill out your roster there for a few years before they either get promoted or released. These are your inexpensive "depth" guys, like Alt, Cousins, Leier, VdV, Willcox, etc. If you're thin, they spend a couple years on the NHL roster until they're replaced, if you're deep, they spend a few years in the AHL before they're moved elsewhere (Weal in LA).

Even if the Flyers consistently beat the odds on these picks, and 20% make it as NHL starters, that's still only 1 a year.
So you're going to balance three goals:
1) drafting for upside and hope to get lucky
2) drafting for organizational depth
3) drafting for your AHL club and building a solid team for your better prospects to play on, especially one that can get deep into the AHL playoffs
These goals aren't mutually exclusive, but it means you're not just going to draft a lot of long shots with upside, you'll also draft some "safer" guys.
 

FLYguy3911

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Oct 19, 2006
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Friedman will likely be the last Hextall guy down in the AHL after this year. I could see Hextal wanting to get him signed.
Hogberg I would bet on coming over after this year. Bernhardt I would put a little behind him, but I think he's good enough to get an ELC. Maybe they sign him and loan him back for one more year.
 

Psuhockey

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Nov 17, 2010
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Hogberg I would bet on coming over after this year. Bernhardt I would put a little behind him, but I think he's good enough to get an ELC. Maybe they sign him and loan him back for one more year.
What’s Hogberg’s contract situation?
 

FLYguy3911

Sanheim Lover
Oct 19, 2006
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Need to see more of him. This Flyers team has just sapped any hockey enthusiasm I had coming into the year. He looked pretty good in the bits and pieces I saw earlier in the year. Looks like he is on track to start in the AHL next season.

Long shots, but I wonder if he and St Ivany get looks on the US WJC team. Would probably be competing for the same spot if they did.
 

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