Prospect Info: Round 4, Pick 98: Samuel Dove-McFalls, C, Saint John (QMJHL)

[The Madrigal]

The pick was wasted when he didn't become a legit prospect, not by letting him go.

I think he still has a shot to make it in the NHL as a 4th liner. As others have illustrated, I think it's just more of a case of being caught in a numbers crunch.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Connor Bunnaman might have made SDM expendable. Seems like a similar prospect but a better version.

I don't think it's just him. In 2018-2019 you could very well have Rubtsov, Laberge, Bunnaman, Allison, & Laczynski all joining the organization. Twarynski could find himself in similar situation next year. Although a third rounder might be high enough where they save face & just sign him regardless.

I don't really think SDM was good enough to factor in this upcoming year with the Phantoms let alone the year after with potentially increased talent. He honestly needed another year in juniors regardless.

 

[The Madrigal]

I don't think it's just him. In 2018-2019 you could very well have Rubtsov, Laberge, Bunnaman, Allison, & Laczynski all joining the organization. Twarynski could find himself in similar situation next year. Although a third rounder might be high enough where they save face & just sign him regardless.

I don't really think SDM was good enough to factor in this upcoming year with the Phantoms let alone the year after with potentially increased talent. He honestly needed another year in juniors regardless.

Good points.

 

[FLYguy3911]

College and European free agents can take up contract slots as well and they don't need 3 year commitments (for the most part).

 

[Tripod]

It was a questionable pick at the time. Luckily we drafted Vorobyov just 6 spots later.

With so much depth starting to happen at the prospect level, I hope they go FO the homerun picks more than the "safe" Dove, Twarynski types. Draft guys with lots of skill!

 

[Alex91]

Speaking of prospects, any updates on how Wade Allison did this year (minus just looking at the numbers)? I really liked that pick last year and think he could have a future in the NHL.

Watch him a quiet a bit last year. He looked like a man playing with boys physically. He looks like a big farm boy with a heavy shot and big competitive streak. I think if he would of went WHL route, he would talked about as one of the biggest steal of the draft.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The reality is the guys with lots of skill are snatched up early these days. There's guys who may be defined as skilled players as the draft goes on but they don't have any less warts than the other players in those range regardless of play style.

The issue with guys like Dove-McFalls & Twarynski is that they didn't/don't do enough overall to make you feel good about an NHL projection. Not their style of play. You can still take big body guys who play heavy & are good off the puck like Vorobyov, Allison, Bunnaman, Lindblom, etc. I would take all those guys over a guy defined by skill like Kase for example.

Because at the end of the day you're still drafting to land NHL players regardless of caliber. The complaints often about drafting certain players more so comes down to preference of style rather than the actual odds of landing a player.

 

[Tripod]

I have no issue taking those guys over Kase types. But on draft day, Dove was such a meh pick. It seemed like we were drafting a guy with limited upside. Much like Twar.

Tons of people who were on here on day 2 of the draft felt we went ultra conservative with 1-2 mid picks, then back to guys with upside afterwards.

I just dislike the "safer" picks who seem to be 4th liners even if they do make it. Last year I wanted Kuznetsov from like the 3rd round onwards because I was willing to risk it on his skill. Still am actually. Shocked he was never taken.

And when I say skill, it doesn't have to be one "style" of guy. Having a mix is good. Like Kase vs Bunny. Totally different play styles, but both skilled in their own ways. Dove never really had anything he was really good at...just sort of average at everything.

 

[The Madrigal]

Watch him a quiet a bit last year. He looked like a man playing with boys physically. He looks like a big farm boy with a heavy shot and big competitive streak. I think if he would of went WHL route, he would talked about as one of the biggest steal of the draft.

Thanks for the report. I loved the pick at the time it was made and what you said sounds very encouraging.

 

[Magua]

For someone who treats every pick like it's gold, I can't imagine Hextall is thrilled they threw away a top 100 pick. Prospects bust and all that, but to not even sign a kid is worse. It's acknowledging you erred only 2 years later and don't think it's worth taking the chance going forward. It's funny to think that his philosophical 3rd/4th round "big, safe, low skill, floor" choices are turning out to not even be all that safe, and it's not like there was much reward to begin with. It's been an obvious strategy he's entailed the last couple years, probably to create "balance" or some nonsense with so many picks.

I agree that they'll save face signing Twarynski. But the best thing that could come of this is Hextall seeing the opportunity cost of these no risk, no reward picks. When every pick you make AFTER looks immediately better in hindsight -- both ceiling and floor -- than the player selected earlier (sometimes much earlier), it's best not to overthink it: make that pick like you do all the others. Because this absolutely has been a strategy that has not panned out. It really is nitpicking because the drafting has been so phenomenal.....but can't rest on your laurels either. Any given selection could be that lottery ticket. With the way the Flyers have drafted in every round, there is no such thing as a pick to waste.

 

[Tripod]

For someone who treats every pick like it's gold, I can't imagine Hextall is thrilled they threw away a top 100 pick. Prospects bust and all that, but to not even sign a kid is worse. It's acknowledging you erred only 2 years later and don't think it's worth taking the chance going forward. It's funny to think that his philosophical 3rd/4th round "big, safe, low skill, floor" choices are turning out to not even be all that safe, and it's not like there was much reward to begin with. It's been an obvious strategy he's entailed the last couple years, probably to create "balance" or some nonsense with so many picks.

I agree that they'll save face signing Twarynski. But the best thing that could come of this is Hextall seeing the opportunity cost of these no risk, no reward picks. When every pick you make AFTER looks immediately better in hindsight -- both ceiling and floor -- than the player selected earlier (sometimes much earlier), it's best not to overthink it: make that pick like you do all the others. Because this absolutely has been a strategy that has not panned out. It really is nitpicking because the drafting has been so phenomenal.....but can't rest on your laurels either. Any given selection could be that lottery ticket. With the way the Flyers have drafted in every round, there is no such thing as a pick to waste.

This us what I was trying to say, you just said it better.

Side note, I like what the NJ director was saying. With every pick, try and pick a guy who could be a HOF if things worked out.

 

[Rebels57]

Yeah I too am hoping Hextall steers clear of the Dove-McFalls/Twarynski types going forward. Cant nail EVERY pick of course though.

 

[The Madrigal]

Speaking of drafts, I think last year actually has the potential to be one of the best Flyers drafts in years.

 

[FLYguy3911]

All 6 of Hextall's picks in 2014 signed NHL contracts. That's pretty impressive. Sanheim and Lindblom could be difference makers.

2015 will be defined by Provorov and Konecny. Does Sandström become an NHL starter?

2016 needs someone to emerge as a top of the lineup guy. Rubtsov? Allison? Hart?

 

[Random Forest]

For someone who treats every pick like it's gold, I can't imagine Hextall is thrilled they threw away a top 100 pick. Prospects bust and all that, but to not even sign a kid is worse. It's acknowledging you erred only 2 years later and don't think it's worth taking the chance going forward. It's funny to think that his philosophical 3rd/4th round "big, safe, low skill, floor" choices are turning out to not even be all that safe, and it's not like there was much reward to begin with. It's been an obvious strategy he's entailed the last couple years, probably to create "balance" or some nonsense with so many picks.

I agree that they'll save face signing Twarynski. But the best thing that could come of this is Hextall seeing the opportunity cost of these no risk, no reward picks. When every pick you make AFTER looks immediately better in hindsight -- both ceiling and floor -- than the player selected earlier (sometimes much earlier), it's best not to overthink it: make that pick like you do all the others. Because this absolutely has been a strategy that has not panned out. It really is nitpicking because the drafting has been so phenomenal.....but can't rest on your laurels either. Any given selection could be that lottery ticket. With the way the Flyers have drafted in every round, there is no such thing as a pick to waste.

The moral of the story is that no player--short of top of the draft talent--is a "high floor" or "safe" player. The mantra that the prototypical, big, gritty mucker is "safe" because he could conceivably develop into, at worst, a bottom six player has proven to be anything but safe as a strategy at the draft. Every player's floor is a bust, and regardless of skill set, busting is a substantial possibility whether the player is 5'5" or 6'5". There's just no sense in drafting for a player's supposed floor.

That said, guys like Dove and Twarynski could have had seasons like Bunnaman. You just don't know. Maybe they did see upside in those players, but it just didn't materialize, like is the case with almost every other mid-late round pick. This is less plausible with Dove since I don't think his game ever indicated an underlying offensive touch, but I can see them eyeing Twarynski like they did Bunnaman in this sense. But even still, Bunnaman is far from a safe prospect himself.

 

[The Madrigal]

All 6 of Hextall's picks in 2014 signed NHL contracts. That's pretty impressive. Sanheim and Lindblom could be difference makers.

2015 will be defined by Provorov and Konecny. Does Sandström become an NHL starter?

2016 needs someone to emerge as a top of the lineup guy. Rubtsov? Allison? Hart?

Hart has a long way to go in his development but he has all the makings of a future number 1 goalie in the NHL. On paper he is probably the best goalie prospect they have in what is now becoming a decent group.

Between Rubtsov, Laberge, Allison, and Bunnaman if they end up with two top 9 forwards it would be a huge success in my opinion.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

That said, guys like Dove and Twarynski could have had seasons like Bunnaman. You just don't know. Maybe they did see upside in those players, but it just didn't materialize, like is the case with almost every other mid-late round pick. This is less plausible with Dove since I don't think his game ever indicated an underlying offensive touch, but I can see them eyeing Twarynski like they did Bunnaman in this sense. But even still, Bunnaman is far from a safe prospect himself.

I couldn't agree more with this. They selected those guys earlier. They liked them better and were likely wrong. Sometimes it's that simple.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

For someone who treats every pick like it's gold, I can't imagine Hextall is thrilled they threw away a top 100 pick. Prospects bust and all that, but to not even sign a kid is worse. It's acknowledging you erred only 2 years later and don't think it's worth taking the chance going forward. It's funny to think that his philosophical 3rd/4th round "big, safe, low skill, floor" choices are turning out to not even be all that safe, and it's not like there was much reward to begin with. It's been an obvious strategy he's entailed the last couple years, probably to create "balance" or some nonsense with so many picks.

I agree that they'll save face signing Twarynski. But the best thing that could come of this is Hextall seeing the opportunity cost of these no risk, no reward picks. When every pick you make AFTER looks immediately better in hindsight -- both ceiling and floor -- than the player selected earlier (sometimes much earlier), it's best not to overthink it: make that pick like you do all the others. Because this absolutely has been a strategy that has not panned out. It really is nitpicking because the drafting has been so phenomenal.....but can't rest on your laurels either. Any given selection could be that lottery ticket. With the way the Flyers have drafted in every round, there is no such thing as a pick to waste.

One can only hope the acknowledged waste of a top 100 pick on Dove-McFalls, not long after wasting one on Goulbourne, can convince Hextall to steer clear of these low-upside muckers in the draft. There is no such thing as a "safe" pick. At least take a swing at someone who flashes some high-level upside.

I'm sure a scout fell in love with Dove's size and purported character/leadership, but not many players who are checking liners at 17 in juniors end up making an NHL impact, especially as the league gets more speed/skill oriented. I would like to know who the scout was who pushed hard for him. Although, to be fair, even Central Scouting was fooled, ranking him 70, and another publication had him 89.

 

[BillDineen]

Hextall still values PEB types. If scouts identify someone who has an average skill set, but works his tail off like PEB, they may feel he has what it takes to be a professional.

The franchise has gone from liking Klotz-->Goulbourne-->Twarynski. Baby steps in the right direction.

EDIT: I should add obviously there is value in having ELC guys instead of Weise/Raffl caps in your bottom six, but unless you are willing to have a fourth line of Leier-Cousins-Weal over "energy" guys like PEB/VdV, you will continue to draft Dove-McFalls/Twarynski types.

 

[Magua]

The moral of the story is that no player--short of top of the draft talent--is a "high floor" or "safe" player. The mantra that the prototypical, big, gritty mucker is "safe" because he could conceivably develop into, at worst, a bottom six player has proven to be anything but safe as a strategy at the draft. Every player's floor is a bust, and regardless of skill set, busting is a substantial possibility whether the player is 5'5" or 6'5". There's just no sense in drafting for a player's supposed floor.

That said, guys like Dove and Twarynski could have had seasons like Bunnaman. You just don't know. Maybe they did see upside in those players, but it just didn't materialize, like is the case with almost every other mid-late round pick. This is less plausible with Dove since I don't think his game ever indicated an underlying offensive touch, but I can see them eyeing Twarynski like they did Bunnaman in this sense. But even still, Bunnaman is far from a safe prospect himself.

We've been absolutely spoiled by the early, mid, and late round drafting of this team -- where almost every pick has hit in the early returns and improved their stock significantly -- that it has probably created some unrealistic expectations. I don't want it to seem like I'm holding them to this impossible standard or judging with hindsight. The drafting has been TOO good the last few years where people should probably brace for some leaner years in the future. Even the best drafting teams, which the Flyers can stake as much claim to as anyone, can't be this good year in and year out. That's where sheer # of picks helps out.

Bunnaman could definitely have turned out like DMF or Twar. He still could. It's not like his draft year profile wasn't similar in the scoring. But we do know that his underlying scoring had more potential than someone like Twarynski. And it's not hard to see that he is more skilled than either. His big skating knock also allowed for more projectable growth. But it's not like Twar had a "down" year......he essentially repeated his age 18 draft year performance in his age 19 season. We have a lot of avid Hitmen viewers here who didn't see much upside/potential by the tape or the stats. Doubt that's shocking to them that he flat-lined this year and is sorta what he is. If that's shocking to the Flyers......and they likely projected improvement......then they may have misevaluated. Maybe they thought Bunnaman and Twar were equal; maybe they thought Vorobyov and DMF were equal. I should have hoped they could see the natural skill level difference and level of rawness, but none had a standout draft profile that screamed out, and it's all (admittedly difficult) projection.

I would like to get away from specific names. It simply seems to me that the Flyers, under Hextall, have a draft philosophy in place where they want to use a pick or two in that range of the draft on what they perceive as safe depth players with size, ones who fit the prototypical energy/grinder mold. Ones without much room for growth, but who they peg as easily projectable. It seems calculated and intentional to me. As mentioned above, they are evolving to the point of taking the ones with actual NHL potential. I only hope they become more flexible with it, maybe having learned a lesson.

 

[PALE PWNR]

Hextall still values PEB types. If scouts identify someone who has an average skill set, but works his tail off like PEB, they may feel he has what it takes to be a professional.

The franchise has gone from liking Klotz-->Goulbourne-->Twarynski. Baby steps in the right direction.

EDIT: I should add obviously there is value in having ELC guys instead of Weise/Raffl caps in your bottom six, but unless you are willing to have a fourth line of Leier-Cousins-Weal over "energy" guys like PEB/VdV, you will continue to draft Dove-McFalls/Twarynski types.

What they need to start picking is, Rust, Guentzel, Hagelin and other guys in that mold with those picks. High Motor is a term used a lot in the Football draft. That's what they need though, guys with the best wheels that work hard, regardless of what other parts of their game is missing. They could be dumb as a brick, if you can tell them to skate as hard as they can at the end board and fore check, fore check, fore check, and they are some of the faster guys on the ice game in and game out, they are going to cause chaos in the other teams zone.

 

[Tripod]

Yeah....I wish we had a Miles Wood type even.

Fantastic speed can cause so much chaos for other teams. And it can cover mistakes by yourself and teammates.

 

[Psuhockey]

The worst picks of the Hextall era, Dove and Twarynsk, were admitted attempts to add size to the organization. I don't see that ever going away.

 

[NYCFlyer]

The worst picks of the Hextall era, Dove and Twarynsk, were admitted attempts to add size to the organization. I don't see that ever going away.

In fairness, only 10 to 20 % of third and fourth rounders play more than a season in the NHL. Thats one player every three to five years of drafting. I think our scouts/Hextall have done an excellent job of drafting. When you look at hockey db over a ten year period starting in say 2012 there is a wide range of positions and skillsets that become NHLers in the 3rd and 4th rounds and many are with different teams than originally drafted them. The most telling point is that on average (2010 there were none and 2012 looks like three or four) maybe one a year in each round becomes a difference maker. Huge difference between 2nd and 3rd round.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The worst picks of the Hextall era, Dove and Twarynsk, were admitted attempts to add size to the organization. I don't see that ever going away.

It's what caused the Weise signing, too.

I'm not saying size doesn't have its place. But you can make a lot of mistakes trying to force it.