Prospect Info: Round 3, Pick 82, Carsen Twarynski, F, Calgary (WHL)
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FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
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Maybe there is an argument. His production is certainly good, but in my opinion he needs to score at a higher clip to be considered a likely or potential top 4 defenseman, at his size.
Spurgeon beat the odds. Maybe Mete does too.
Wasn't really comparing Morin to Mete. They couldn't be more different. Just pointing out that saying a guy is "almost PPG" when he's really not, and ranks 'such and such' in the league can be a bit misleading.
Spurgeon played on good teams, but they didn't score anywhere near as often as London did/does. They won because of their defense and goaltending. Hell look at Tyler Johnson's numbers in junior compared to his pro numbers. His AHL scoring rate was almost identical to his WHL scoring rate which is almost unheard of for a top scorer.
Fair enough. I was just making a point that I don't think the Flyers passed up an obvious supreme talent. I still don't think he's 5'10 and I would love to see an official measurement.
Looking at the draft on draft day and even now, it just looks like the draft hit a lull and the talent dropped off pretty quickly around pick 75.
renberg
Registered User
Tripod
I hate this team
I had to go look to see what I said about CT when we picked him. Not much has changed.
Quote:
First pick that I am "meh" on.
But the scouts certainly have seen Calgary a lot....so who knows.
Wanted a homerun pick....didn't get it.
FWIW, Hockey News had him ranked 83.
Just went and looked at his game by game stats....had 18 points in his last 18 games and +11.
Still wanted others though.
Quote:
First pick that I am "meh" on.
But the scouts certainly have seen Calgary a lot....so who knows.
Wanted a homerun pick....didn't get it.
FWIW, Hockey News had him ranked 83.
Just went and looked at his game by game stats....had 18 points in his last 18 games and +11.
Still wanted others though.
Larry44
#FireTortsNOW
- Mar 1, 2002
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This is closer. The scouts clearly liked something about Twarynski and Bunnaman that the organization needs: big, strong, fast players who have good hands and the potential to be scorers at the NHL level.
Given the long odds of making the NHL after being picked after the first half of the 2nd round, if you see a kid with a lot of great qualities (work ethic, professionalism) to go with their physical attributes, it's sometimes worth it to go with your gut. If your gut says 'this kid has the drive and will to play in the NHL,' you pick him.
Hextall comes out of the Kings' org and they like to have some size on the wings. I'm actually more surprised they didn't pick some of the really huge guys (6'5"/6'6") that were available in the last couple of drafts and opted for these 'mid-size' 6'3" types....
LegionOfDoom91
Registered User
There's not really that many forwards that tall in today's game. Most guys that tall around the league mostly play on the backend or in net these days. Brian Boyle's one of the few forwards that tall in the league off the top of my head.
BackWithaVengeance
Registered User
Ron and his team are convinced Twarynski can become a middle-6 winger with lots of grit.
If so ever, I don't see any problem with the pick at all.
If so ever, I don't see any problem with the pick at all.
Chuck Downie
Cheese and olive
Kelowna is in Kamloops for game 3 tomorrow, up 2-0 in the series.
I'm going to reserve judgement on Twarynski, he's got another year of junior before I think about judging him too much. If he misses, oh well. He'll just be in a long line of mid to late round players who didn't make it. Who cares though, Hextall has drafted very well overall.
I'm going to reserve judgement on Twarynski, he's got another year of junior before I think about judging him too much. If he misses, oh well. He'll just be in a long line of mid to late round players who didn't make it. Who cares though, Hextall has drafted very well overall.
Twarynski is a 97, so next year he will be an overager and AHL eligible. Very few drafted players go back to the CHL for an overage year, and if they do, it's because the organization that drafted them has given up on them.
If the Flyers are committed to him, he should get a contract this summer and be in the AHL next year. [that being said, I'd be happy if he was sent back to the Rockets as it means the Hitmen get an extra draft pick]
LegionOfDoom91
Registered User
I'd be surprised if he's in the AHL next year. Hextall goes heavy on the veterans down there & he's probably not good enough to beat out other prospects for the remaining spots. So in reality you very well could be looking at ECHL vs. WHL for next year which I'd imagine they'd have him back in the WHL. They sent Tyrell Goulbourne back for his overage year then signed him afterwards a few years ago.
Chuck Downie
Cheese and olive
He`s a late 97`so I imagine he`ll go back and your Hitmen will get the pick. I`d be surprised if he was in the AHL in the fall, but stranger things have happened.
Maybe we`ll draft another player from Calgary and you`ll give us updates again?
Rick Deckard
Registered User
What do you think is best for his development? (serious, not rhetorical question)
1. Playing in the WHL as an overager, dominating younger players and scoring alot of points.
2. Playing in the AHL on an veteran laden team earning 10 minutes a night or being a healthy scratch
3. Playing in the ECHL against grown men, getting decent ice time and learning the pro game. If he's good enough he still can make the jump to the AHL mid-season.
1. Playing in the WHL as an overager, dominating younger players and scoring alot of points.
2. Playing in the AHL on an veteran laden team earning 10 minutes a night or being a healthy scratch
3. Playing in the ECHL against grown men, getting decent ice time and learning the pro game. If he's good enough he still can make the jump to the AHL mid-season.
tymed
Registered User
Leave him in juniors, seems he's got plenty left to prove and plenty of room for improvement.
At some point, hopefully another year or two of drafting and development, I believe the idea is to create organizational depth to the extent that we have little or no choice but to slow roast our prospects without having to question whether or not to leave a 3rd round pick scoring at only 0.67ppg in juniors to continue developing his offensive skills.
At some point, hopefully another year or two of drafting and development, I believe the idea is to create organizational depth to the extent that we have little or no choice but to slow roast our prospects without having to question whether or not to leave a 3rd round pick scoring at only 0.67ppg in juniors to continue developing his offensive skills.
Curufinwe
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2013
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He won't get one and the Flyers will still be committed to him.
Next season will only be his 4th WHL season so of course he's going back. He's not a first or second round prospect who dominated Junior like Anthony Mantha. If he was born six weeks later, no one would be sad about him not being AHL eligible for 17-18.
I was actually wrong on the conditional pick. It's Calgary's third round pick that is included - Kelowna gets the pick if Twarynski moves on to pro hockey next season.
Everyone is making good points about him returning, and I don't disagree. It's interesting contrasting the various fanboards here - the Winnipeg posters were incredibly upset that I would even suggest sending Matteo Gennaro back for an OA season next year, while you guys seem to be generally okay with the concept.
It will be interesting if the Flyers do send him back - the Rockets could be jammed for 20s next year depending on who is returned. He may be on the move again, in which case I could easily see a trip back to Calgary as the Hitmen will have OA openings.
[the following is way off-topic, feel free to quote/repost/move this section to a more applicable part of the Flyers board]
As for the Flyers drafting any Hitmen this year... it's bleak. The top potential pick is Mark Kastelic, he's kinda like a Twarynski-lite. Lots of tenacity and decent hands, but not great skating, low IQ, lots of PIMS, and not a lot of size. Next choice would probably be Andrei Grishakov, he's more of a Fazleev-minus. Really hampered by limited minutes early in the season, a language barrier, and positionally he's not sound. He's got good hands and a great shot, but not great in transition or on the cycle. Your other choices for 99s at forwards are Matt Dorsey (lightning fast but injury prone) or Lucas Cullen (small, skilled guy that gets run over frequently). From the forward group, there are no 98s worth taking in their second year of eligibility.
On the backend, top choice would be Vladislav Yeryomenko, another rookie import. He looked great in preseason, good skating, positionally strong, and had decent shooting and passing. Once the big boys came back from pro camps, and our coaching went to ****, he really gets stuffed in his own end. Jakob LaPointe is a 98 that went undrafted last year - he's a big kid that likes to play physical and is solid in his own end. With better coaching I could see him being a really good depth NHL defenceman, but I think his career got stifled by a year of bad coaching.
In net, Kyle Dumba is a 98 that went undrafted and again, could be a decent project that has been stuck as a backup for 3 consecutive years now. He never really got the chance to exhibit his skills. Really athletic goalie with a lot of raw talent that, with the right coaching and mindset, could be a force.
All in all, I think the Flyers are better served looking at the 2018 eligible guys on the Hitmen. Tristen Nielsen is a small guy with one hell of an engine, and he has no fear in the corners taking or giving a hit. I've seen him run over much bigger defencemen because he's so solid on his skates. His hands need a bit of work but I think mostly they don't keep up with his feet, so that will come along next season. As above, stifled by coaching so his stats aren't great but I expect big things next year. Murph Stratton is a late 99 so he's 2018 eligible, and he's a big winger similar to Twarynski, with a hell of a strong shot. Expect a big step forward next year. On the back end, Drea Esposito [rumor is he's Phil's grandson, can't find anything to confirm] projects to be a solid 2-way defender. We'll see what he does with better icetime next year.
2 defencemen to look at long-term: Jackson van de Leest and Jackson Niedermayer [confirmed as Scott's son]. The former Jackson is a hulk of a kid, smooth skater, and is looking decent for the Hitmen in the games he's drawn in for this year. The latter I haven't seen yet, but have heard good things about him and he obviously has the bloodlines.
Curufinwe
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The difference with Matteo Gennaro is he's already had four Junior seasons.
We expect to add 2015 draft picks like Dove-McFalls and David Kase to the Phantoms, so yeah, I don't think anyone is in a hurry to get Carson out of the WHL. Hopefully Vorobyov, too.
We expect to add 2015 draft picks like Dove-McFalls and David Kase to the Phantoms, so yeah, I don't think anyone is in a hurry to get Carson out of the WHL. Hopefully Vorobyov, too.
deadhead
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- Feb 26, 2014
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I think most of these decisions are made in training camp, where they get to see how well they've developed physically and if they're mentally ready to jump to the next level.
At that age, kids have different developmental paths, how often do you see a draft day picture of a scrawny 18 year old and 2 or 3 years later you're looking at a completely different looking player.
At that age, kids have different developmental paths, how often do you see a draft day picture of a scrawny 18 year old and 2 or 3 years later you're looking at a completely different looking player.
Chuck Downie
Cheese and olive
Thanks for the very informative response. Yeryomenko as a late pick would make the most sense for the Flyers if any of the players you mentioned.
Not sure if you`ve watched any Phantoms games, but Sanheim has been doing very well and Fazleev has come on as of late.
GapToothedWonder
Registered User
Sorry to derail this even more bit what happened to Calgarys coaching staff? I thought they usually had a solid staff?
I think it's a combination of management and coaching, actually.
Mike Williamson was fired in April 2014 (for reasons I can't ascertain), and it looked like Brent Kisio was going to be promoted from assistant/associate coach to full head coach. Instead they brought in Mark French, who was coaching professional hockey over in Europe and had never coached at a junior level before.
Williamson got hired in Tri-City. Kisio quit after French was named, headed south to Lethbridge and has absolutely turned that team around.
First, on the management side - the Hitmen are a very successful franchise. This is their 21st season in the WHL and the 19th time they've made the playoffs. They've developed a mantra - "this is a team that doesn't miss the playoffs". Which is great for selling to fans, but not all that great for building a team long-term, because it comes down to asset management. Look at the Twarynski trade - they traded a solid top-6 19yo for a middle/bottom-6 18yo (Jake Kryski). Basically turning a decent winger with good upside for a plug that will come back next year. Giving up a third rounder if Twarynski is in the AHL next year is even worse asset management. They made a similar deadline deal with Prince Albert - sending 19yo Jordy Stallard for 18yo Luke Coleman. Stallard is a drafted top-6 winger, Coleman is an undrafted bottom-6 plug. Both trades mean that next year, 2 roster spots are filled by guys that simply take up ice instead of developing players.
Still on the asset management (although this goes into coaching a bit as well), is the goaltending situation. This is the fourth season that Kyle Dumba has been affiliated with the team (emergency backup as a 15 and 16, full backup as a 17 and 18). He's long been touted as the future franchise goaltender, but never given the chance. When Cody Porter went down with a devastating shoulder injury(s) in January, we all expected Dumba to get the crease and throw an 15yo affiliate on the bench. Instead, the Hitmen "acquired" 20yo Trevor Martin from the OHL (making Calgary his 5th CHL team of the season) to be the new starter. Poor Kyle Dumba has never been given the chance to develop into a #1 goalie.
I'm not sure whether this is coaching or management, but there is a determined effort somewhere to pin the C onto an overager. There is zero doubt this year that this is Jake Bean's team - he's a leader on the ice, a leader on the bench, the face of the team locally, and the guy the coach sends to talk to the refs. Yet Michael Zipp was named captain this year, because he's 20. Last year it was Travis Sanheim's team, but the C was on Colby Harmsworth's sweater. Before that, it was Kenton Helgesen, and Jaynen Rissling. The last player to wear the C that wasn't 20 was Cody Sylvester in 11-12 (he was also captain in 12-13). I literally can't remember the last time a draft-eligible player wore the C, despite multiple candidates. I am sure this puts a rift on the team, and over-emphasizes age in the dressing room which is again stifling development.
Further to that, the Hitmen seem committed to running with 3 overagers regardless of context. Sure, I'll give them Michael Zipp as an OA this year because they're thin on defence, but Tyler Mrkonjic and Taylor Sanheim had no business taking up a roster spot. We dropped Sanheim to make room for Martin (see above).
Finally, the coaching. French is trying to convince these kids that every game is winnable. Earlier in the season, he was continually pulling the goalie with games well out of reach, and with way too much time on the clock (down 4-0, pull the goalie with 6 minutes left). End result, extra goals against. He also doesn't give his goalies any leash to work through issues - very trigger happy to pull them. All 3 main goalies have had consistency issues, and I'm certain it's attached to confidence. My seats are behind the attacking net, but every time a goalie allows a goal in the second he's looking to the bench right away.
He's also not managing young players well. The Hitmen tend to have a tough schedule, even for the WHL, because they're marketed to kids. They'll often play 3 games in a weekend, Friday in Calgary, Saturday away (Red Deer, Lethbridge, Edmonton, Medicine Hat, Kootenay, Regina, and Saskatoon are all close enough), then back in Calgary on Sunday afternoon. I can't tell you how many times I've seen Jake Bean double shifted in the Friday game, even when the game is lost. Just draining the kid on the first game of a 3-in-3 schedule, and the occasion that sticks out the most was a 7-2 loss to MH.
The systems that the Hitmen are playing are terrible. It's partially skill based, but any breakout the Hitmen attempt that isn't 100% perfect completely falls apart. Meaning, once the other team has adapted to the Hitmen's system, they get jammed in their own end. Wingers are generally too high and not moving (the WHL is terrible for a play where the defenceman gets the puck behind his own net, fires a hard shot/pass to a winger at the far blueline, who just deflects it in and then forechecks).
As a final point, there is no fire to this team. I'm used to seeing Mike Williamson teams, where the players have an edge, play physical, and are willing to engage in the typical WHL push/shove/facewash in front of both nets. Even in the playoffs, this is noticeably lacking for Calgary. I used to think it was team-makeup, but look at what Twarynski is doing in Kelowna now. He was on a leash here.
Sorry for the long post - I guess I needed a bit of a vent before I go watch the Pats end our season.
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 52,989
- 86,201
Didn't catch too many Hitmen games this year, but they weren't a good team last year. Sanheim and Bean carried that team and Fazleev was a pretty good wing man. The team fell apart in the playoffs. Just got dominated by a Red Deer team that they handled in the regular season. Not surprising what happened this year when they lost Sanheim and Fazleev, and Bean for half the year.
I think the thing that bugged me most about French when I watched the games, was when he would send Harmsworth and Kanzig out late in the game to protect a lead and they would just get pelted with shots. Sometimes they would hang on to the win, others times they wouldn't. Meanwhile he had arguably the best defensive pair in the CHL sitting on his bench, that were certainly elite puckmovers at that level. French's tenure has been trending in the wrong direction.
I think the thing that bugged me most about French when I watched the games, was when he would send Harmsworth and Kanzig out late in the game to protect a lead and they would just get pelted with shots. Sometimes they would hang on to the win, others times they wouldn't. Meanwhile he had arguably the best defensive pair in the CHL sitting on his bench, that were certainly elite puckmovers at that level. French's tenure has been trending in the wrong direction.
GapToothedWonder
Registered User
I think it's a combination of management and coaching, actually.
Mike Williamson was fired in April 2014 (for reasons I can't ascertain), and it looked like Brent Kisio was going to be promoted from assistant/associate coach to full head coach. Instead they brought in Mark French, who was coaching professional hockey over in Europe and had never coached at a junior level before.
Williamson got hired in Tri-City. Kisio quit after French was named, headed south to Lethbridge and has absolutely turned that team around.
First, on the management side - the Hitmen are a very successful franchise. This is their 21st season in the WHL and the 19th time they've made the playoffs. They've developed a mantra - "this is a team that doesn't miss the playoffs". Which is great for selling to fans, but not all that great for building a team long-term, because it comes down to asset management. Look at the Twarynski trade - they traded a solid top-6 19yo for a middle/bottom-6 18yo (Jake Kryski). Basically turning a decent winger with good upside for a plug that will come back next year. Giving up a third rounder if Twarynski is in the AHL next year is even worse asset management. They made a similar deadline deal with Prince Albert - sending 19yo Jordy Stallard for 18yo Luke Coleman. Stallard is a drafted top-6 winger, Coleman is an undrafted bottom-6 plug. Both trades mean that next year, 2 roster spots are filled by guys that simply take up ice instead of developing players.
Still on the asset management (although this goes into coaching a bit as well), is the goaltending situation. This is the fourth season that Kyle Dumba has been affiliated with the team (emergency backup as a 15 and 16, full backup as a 17 and 18). He's long been touted as the future franchise goaltender, but never given the chance. When Cody Porter went down with a devastating shoulder injury(s) in January, we all expected Dumba to get the crease and throw an 15yo affiliate on the bench. Instead, the Hitmen "acquired" 20yo Trevor Martin from the OHL (making Calgary his 5th CHL team of the season) to be the new starter. Poor Kyle Dumba has never been given the chance to develop into a #1 goalie.
I'm not sure whether this is coaching or management, but there is a determined effort somewhere to pin the C onto an overager. There is zero doubt this year that this is Jake Bean's team - he's a leader on the ice, a leader on the bench, the face of the team locally, and the guy the coach sends to talk to the refs. Yet Michael Zipp was named captain this year, because he's 20. Last year it was Travis Sanheim's team, but the C was on Colby Harmsworth's sweater. Before that, it was Kenton Helgesen, and Jaynen Rissling. The last player to wear the C that wasn't 20 was Cody Sylvester in 11-12 (he was also captain in 12-13). I literally can't remember the last time a draft-eligible player wore the C, despite multiple candidates. I am sure this puts a rift on the team, and over-emphasizes age in the dressing room which is again stifling development.
Further to that, the Hitmen seem committed to running with 3 overagers regardless of context. Sure, I'll give them Michael Zipp as an OA this year because they're thin on defence, but Tyler Mrkonjic and Taylor Sanheim had no business taking up a roster spot. We dropped Sanheim to make room for Martin (see above).
Finally, the coaching. French is trying to convince these kids that every game is winnable. Earlier in the season, he was continually pulling the goalie with games well out of reach, and with way too much time on the clock (down 4-0, pull the goalie with 6 minutes left). End result, extra goals against. He also doesn't give his goalies any leash to work through issues - very trigger happy to pull them. All 3 main goalies have had consistency issues, and I'm certain it's attached to confidence. My seats are behind the attacking net, but every time a goalie allows a goal in the second he's looking to the bench right away.
He's also not managing young players well. The Hitmen tend to have a tough schedule, even for the WHL, because they're marketed to kids. They'll often play 3 games in a weekend, Friday in Calgary, Saturday away (Red Deer, Lethbridge, Edmonton, Medicine Hat, Kootenay, Regina, and Saskatoon are all close enough), then back in Calgary on Sunday afternoon. I can't tell you how many times I've seen Jake Bean double shifted in the Friday game, even when the game is lost. Just draining the kid on the first game of a 3-in-3 schedule, and the occasion that sticks out the most was a 7-2 loss to MH.
The systems that the Hitmen are playing are terrible. It's partially skill based, but any breakout the Hitmen attempt that isn't 100% perfect completely falls apart. Meaning, once the other team has adapted to the Hitmen's system, they get jammed in their own end. Wingers are generally too high and not moving (the WHL is terrible for a play where the defenceman gets the puck behind his own net, fires a hard shot/pass to a winger at the far blueline, who just deflects it in and then forechecks).
As a final point, there is no fire to this team. I'm used to seeing Mike Williamson teams, where the players have an edge, play physical, and are willing to engage in the typical WHL push/shove/facewash in front of both nets. Even in the playoffs, this is noticeably lacking for Calgary. I used to think it was team-makeup, but look at what Twarynski is doing in Kelowna now. He was on a leash here.
Sorry for the long post - I guess I needed a bit of a vent before I go watch the Pats end our season.
Haha I understand the need for a good vent. I am from Saskatoon and the Blades are useless. They have reached joke status in the city. They have made the playoffs twice in the last ten or so years, I think they finished in 1st in the division both years and were promptly swept out of the playoffs (one year being led by our own Braden Schenn)
Appleyard
Registered User
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
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As we've seen, bottom six players have value too.
There's nothing wrong with drafting solid prospects with a bottom six ceiling later in the draft if they have a high enough floor. Twarynski seems like a guy progressing into that potential role.
Or do you want more Lehtera's and Weise's in your future?
There's nothing wrong with drafting solid prospects with a bottom six ceiling later in the draft if they have a high enough floor. Twarynski seems like a guy progressing into that potential role.
Or do you want more Lehtera's and Weise's in your future?
Curufinwe
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2013
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The Flyers have more than enough players right now to ice a lineup that never features Jori Lehtera, especially not on special teams.
Drafting guys like Twarynski won't be enough to keep trash like Lehtera out of the lineup - only a change in philosophy by Flyers management will do that. They need to realize that just because you acquire a cap dump with a bloated contract, you don't need to keep playing him once he has proved he's no longer an NHL player.
Drafting guys like Twarynski won't be enough to keep trash like Lehtera out of the lineup - only a change in philosophy by Flyers management will do that. They need to realize that just because you acquire a cap dump with a bloated contract, you don't need to keep playing him once he has proved he's no longer an NHL player.
