Prospect Info: Round 2, Pick 52, Wade Allison, RW, Tri-City (USHL)

[Rebels57]

Yes, agreed, on the grand scale of things, winning is tops. But I take some solace in the fact that the team has been outplayed in a minimum of games, has really only 'stolen' one game (IMHO), and were the better team for several of the losses. And this was with a very challenging schedule to date, and with some key injuries.

Medical studies all have one or, at most, two primary outcomes but they usually have a laundry list of secondary outcomes that will provide important information for future study. This team is doing okay, relatively speaking, in the primary outcome of winning, but is moving ahead well with integrating the prospects into the line-up. Yes, ice time has been an issue but, goodness, the team was a Morin injury away from having the top 5 D prospects all in orange and black (ignoring the fact that Moring would be called up for Gostisbehere).

I think I am slowly being assimilated.

According to Hockey Reference, our Strength of Schedule so far has only been the 18th most difficult in the NHL.

On a positive note, using their Simple Rating system, we are the 7th best team in the East and 12th best team in the NHL so far.

Simple Rating System takes into account goal differential and strength of schedule.

https://www.hockeyreference.com/leagues/NHL_2018.html

 

[whitstifier]

Certain people just have not come to that realization that the future is more important to Hextall than the present.

Really? I think that's obvious.

I disagree with Hextall's approach so far. The team could be better now without compromising the future.

 

[deadhead]

The issue for me is not that the talent hasn't gotten better. It most certainly has. That is not debateable.

The issue for me is that the results haven't gotten any better. Speaking in terms of Winning Percentage is all that matters at the end of the day:

Berube year 1: .595 winning percentage
Berube year 2: .512 winning percentage

Hakstol year 1: .585 winning percentage
Hakstol year 2: .537
Hakstol year 3: .533

So yeah, all 3 of Hakstols seasons have been better than Year 2 of Berube but the results are getting worse with each season. The sample size is obviously small so far for Year 3 so hopefully that turns around.

However, did you normalize it for goalie play?
Seriously, because most of the fluctuation has been due to the goalies.
Cumulative E +/- is a better guage of team play b/c it's based on both shots and quality of shots and is independent of goalie.
2014-15: +3.3 (.914 sv %)
2015-16: -51.5 (.920 sv %)
2016-17: +28.7 (.905 sv %)
2017-18: +2.9 (15 games, prorated +15.9) (.907 sv %)
The team played better but the goalies played worse last year. Same problem this year.

The 2014-15 Flyers had a healthy Streit, MDZ having a good year, Schenn, Grossman, Schultz, L Schenn, Raffl scoring 20 goals. Were they more talented? Probably not. Were they more experienced? By a wide margin. So the test this year is really about improvement of a young team as the season progresses.

Next year's team should be the most talented group since 2011-12.

 

[deadhead]

As far as Allison and the other college guys, the test will be if Hextall pushes to get them signed after their sophomore year.
Usually, if you don't push a kid to go pro, it means you're not sold on him and want to see how he finishes out his college career.
But if you think he's the real thing, you want him signed and in the AHL.

 

[Striiker]

The issue for me is not that the talent hasn't gotten better. It most certainly has. That is not debateable.

The issue for me is that the results haven't gotten any better. Speaking in terms of Winning Percentage is all that matters at the end of the day:

Berube year 1: .595 winning percentage
Berube year 2: .512 winning percentage

Hakstol year 1: .585 winning percentage
Hakstol year 2: .537
Hakstol year 3: .533

So yeah, all 3 of Hakstols seasons have been better than Year 2 of Berube but the results are getting worse with each season. The sample size is obviously small so far for Year 3 so hopefully that turns around.

I think part of that is that the young guys coming in are still inexperienced and far from a finished product.

I mean we're transitioning from older guys who may not be at their peak, but were still a big part of the team, to much better young guys who are still not even close to their peak.

We could look at the names on today's roster vs a roster from however many years ago and see Konecny, Provorov, Sanheim, Patrick, etc instead of Streit, Timonen, Coburn, Hartnell, etc and think "yeah, I'd easily take that first group" but part of that is subconsciously thinking of them as what we expect them to become instead of what they actually are now. For example, two or three years ago Streit was still a pretty damn good player, so even though right now the choice of him vs Sanheim is a no-brainer, the positive impact he had back then is much bigger than the impact Sanheim is currently having.

And also if you're just looking at win percentages, keep in mind that the team went ultra-super-crazy-HAM-mode in the 2nd half of Hakstols first year here... getting C A R R I E D by Giroux, Ghost, and Mason.

Plus also remember how last year Giroux and Ghost were far from normal and that certainly effected win percentage too.

 

[Bevans]

Bump.

What's the level of concern for this guy's knee following his injury? It occurred January 19th, and he wasn't able to skate in dev camp. Based on highlights speed looks like a huge part of his game.

I couldn't spot any details on the injury other than than that it was his knee and it has kept him out minium 5 months.

Anyone have any updates?

 

[Larry44]

Bump.

What's the level of concern for this guy's knee following his injury? It occurred January 19th, and he wasn't able to skate in dev camp. Based on highlights speed looks like a huge part of his game.

I couldn't spot any details on the injury other than than that it was his knee and it has kept him out minium 5 months.

Anyone have any updates?

No real concern. Apparently he was close to skating at Development Camp. It has to be an ACL to be out that long, so he seems to be on schedule. Hexy said he wanted to sign him but Allison preferred to return to college. I think that's fine. Let the knee really heal, have a good year at WMU, join the Flyers/Phantoms in the spring.

 

[deadhead]

If Allison and Laczynski don't sign by next July, my suspicion is Hextall will trade them the way he did Marody and not let them become UFAs the following summer or use that leverage to gain a deal that would force him to put them on the NHL roster without earning a spot.

This would simply be due to the depth of prospects, and wanting to ensure that the winners of the fight for roster spots are the best players, and not the ones with the best leverage.

 

[wasup]

If Allison and Laczynski don't sign by next July, my suspicion is Hextall will trade them the way he did Marody and not let them become UFAs the following summer or use that leverage to gain a deal that would force him to put them on the NHL roster without earning a spot.

This would simply be due to the depth of prospects, and wanting to ensure that the winners of the fight for roster spots are the best players, and not the ones with the best leverage.

I don't think it is the same as the Marody situation . Form what i heard and it is all hear say is that Marody wanted to sign and Hextall wanted him to go back for his senior year . Once he was traded he signed and was playing with Bakersfeild shortly thereafter so he obviously wanting to sign and did not want to go back . He had 3 points in 3 games for the Condors .
Laczysnski said he was going back to College a while ago but i never saw anywhere that Hextall was trying to sign him maybe they had a conversation and Tanner expressed a desire to go back for another year and Hexy was okay with it .
Allison on the other hand Hextall said he was trying to sign and declined and i can see why with the knee injury he will be late this year till he gets that knee thing out of the back of his mind . If was trying to sign him and he did not have this injury then i would wonder what is going on .
Next year i suspect both will sign and be here cause from what i have read from the Flyers media guys on twitter that neither one has a problem with Philly .Marody obviously did not either just he and Hexy wanted different things .

 

[Larry44]

I don't think it is the same as the Marody situation . Form what i heard and it is all hear say is that Marody wanted to sign and Hextall wanted him to go back for his senior year . Once he was traded he signed and was playing with Bakersfeild shortly thereafter so he obviously wanting to sign and did not want to go back . He had 3 points in 3 games for the Condors .
Laczysnski said he was going back to College a while ago but i never saw anywhere that Hextall was trying to sign him maybe they had a conversation and Tanner expressed a desire to go back for another year and Hexy was okay with it .
Allison on the other hand Hextall said he was trying to sign and declined and i can see why with the knee injury he will be late this year till he gets that knee thing out of the back of his mind . If was trying to sign him and he did not have this injury then i would wonder what is going on .
Next year i suspect both will sign and be here cause from what i have read from the Flyers media guys on twitter that neither one has a problem with Philly .Marody obviously did not either just he and Hexy wanted different things .

I wonder if Marody's issue was academic, i.e. they weren't going to bring him back to college? I think it will be easier on Allison's recovery to not be at pro camp trying to make the Flyers or find a role on the Phantoms. Do we want him in the ECHL over college?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Allison would not play in the ECHL.

 

[Chuck Downie]

From Oct 20.

Bowling Green's coach Chris Bergeron on facing WMU:

“They’re a high-energy, high-skill team and we didn’t even see their best player in Wade Allison. I don’t know if Wade is going to be healthy or not.

Falcons expect tough game against WMU

Doesn't seem to be a timetable for his return, but it seems imminent.

 

[Appleyard]

Yeh, it should be.

WMU themselves thought he might be ready for the 1st game... and he has been apparently skating hard/practicing for weeks.

 

[Striiker]

 

[VladDrag]

Looks like the weird brother in Get Out.

Also, how do you have money for a full sleeve tat at that age?

 

[GKJ]

Chuck doing the lord's work to keep us entertained during the pandemic

 

[TheKingPin]

Wow well done getting all these guys done.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Give Chuckie some credit for keeping the players we want to keep. Imagine being Calgary/carolina fan not signing Fox.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Fox just seemed like a kid that was always going to end back home with the Rangers. At least both of those teams ejected before it was too late & got something out of the deal.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly how much Fox was valued before Carolina given the nature of the deal with multiple pieces all active NHL players sans him. But Carolina ended up getting two second rounders for him individually after his third year of playing college hockey.

 

[Magua]

Fox is in a different realm than Laczynski and Allison. After two injury plagued mostly disappointing seasons, until his last month or so, I don’t think Allison signing was anything but an inevitability. He was pretty clear in his rumored intentions. Laczynski had a better case to wait until August, and even if he’s not a star prospect, he’s a strong depth one. Didn’t hurt Ohio State wasn’t anything special this season and Tanner’s numbers dipped a little (with context). Good on Fletcher and Flahr. Still not Adam Fox.

And for a player who wasn’t going to sign in a year, Carolina ended up getting the #37 pick last season (which they traded down for Rees and Honka) and a mid-2nd this draft. I’d say they made out pretty well actually for a college junior who would’ve walked in a year for nothing.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Wade looks like he's 30 already. What?

 

[Flyer lurker]

Fox is in a different realm than Laczynski and Allison. After two injury plagued mostly disappointing seasons, until his last month or so, I don’t think Allison signing was anything but an inevitability. He was pretty clear in his rumored intentions. Laczynski had a better case to wait until August, and even if he’s not a star prospect, he’s a strong depth one. Didn’t hurt Ohio State wasn’t anything special this season and Tanner’s numbers dipped a little (with context). Good on Fletcher and Flahr. Still not Adam Fox.

And for a player who wasn’t going to sign in a year, Carolina ended up getting the #37 pick last season (which they traded down for Rees and Honka) and a mid-2nd this draft. I’d say they made out pretty well actually for a college junior who would’ve walked in a year for nothing.

Allison and Laczynski aren't Fox just making point when Flyers have wanted to sign a player he hasn't had to go to UFA.

 

[FLYguy3911]

There’s still one more.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Phantoms should have a few spots open next season for Allison to further develop since Aube-Kubel has moved up to philly full time.

Also Carey’s contract is up this season and Gabriel and Stewart should be gone so Lehigh should have 2-3 spots open up.

 

[Prongo]

I remember the days when people were telling us they weren’t going to sign...