Prospect Info: Round 2, Pick #50: Adam Ginning, D, Linkoping HC (SHL)

[magnumpi]

personally, i dont see the point in trashing any pick.
Who knows what's going to happen with any of these players?

Its a waste of energy.


None of us know anything.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

I wouldn’t take too much stock in local philly reports on Ginning.

Ginning seems like a big defensive d-man that’s still trying to improve his game. The Hagg comparisons are off imo.
If Ginning turns into a Adam Larsson type of player or close to it, that’s what the Flyers are in need of.

Adam Ginning - NHL - DraftSite.com

 

[Fossy21]

I'm aware the league he plays in; I'm aware scoring isn't his primary function, though that's a can of worms opening up. I just posted them as food for thought, not as ironclad proof of anything (I've seen him plenty for Sweden, so I'm not in the dark here about the merits of the player and already had an opinion pre-draft or before that stat dump). Though a draft player "playing" in a pro league is often worn as a badge of honor to show how good or mature that player is, so it goes both ways using a stat to show that they weren't especially good in that pro league.

And it's just goal differential. Anyone who even remotely cares about stats knows how fluky that can be and inaccurate. I don't know if possession numbers were tracked for him like they were for some players (Lundkvist for example). Teens with NHL potential have regularly done well in that area, when SHL tracking is provided, to indicate some correlation. But regarding this: "You’d also benefit from being on a defensively terrible team because terrible relative to terrible is just average." It's statistically relative to your team. It doesn't matter if your team is good or bad.

Fair enough.

But on the last point, if the rest of the team has a horrible GAA, you could be a below average player and seem as if you're good because your GAA is ever so slightly better than the rest of the team. If you're an above average player on a great team, your realtive GAA will suffer. And the SHL is one of the leagues with the lowest league-wide GAA (2.69 GAA for the median team, 2 GAA for the top team and 3.38 for the bottom team compared to 2.88, 2.46 and 3.57 in the NHL, and that was a relatively scoring-happy year for the SHL, where last year two goalies topped 94.3% SVS, something which has only been done once in the NHL, in 70-71). In the OHL, the median GAA was 3.49, and the worst team had 4.65; in the QMJHL the median was 3.25, worst 4.53; in the WHL, 3.49 and 4.38. Draft prospects from the CHL are typically going to be amongst the best on their team in most stats. Draft prospects from pro leagues (with rare exceptions, generally top 10 draft picks) are going to be among the worse on their teams. Coupled with a small sample size, that leaves a small room for error for a stat such as this one.

As a general note, you pretty much need a great defensive D-man on the 2nd pairing to win a Stanley Cup. If he develops more of an offensive instinct, that's just a bonus. If you could take a Niklas Hjalmarsson/Johnny Oduya or - speaking as a Bruins fan - Dennis Seidenberg/Johnny Boychuk or even Adam McQuaid (at his best) for a good 7+ years, at that spot, you'd do it. At that spot, that's what you can hope for, or go for a total boom or bust guy that could be had in the later rounds anyway, depends on your philosophy I guess.

 

[Appleyard]

I feel pretty certain that one day he will be able to "hold his own" in the NHL. He has the physical tool-set and can exit the zone.

What I do heavily doubt is if he can develop into more than a #5 Dman.

For example Alexandersson was taken a few picks later... way riskier with a lower floor, but has the skillset to be a legit 2nd pairing guy down the line if develops.

We will see going forward I guess.

 

[Everlong]

Flyers do seem to pick players that show improvement over their draft year season.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

Ginning seems more comparable to Adam Larsson.

IMO Ginning is the big defensive d-man that philly needs.

I wonder how Therien thinks of him.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

personally, i dont see the point in trashing any pick.
Who knows what's going to happen with any of these players?

Its a waste of energy.


None of us know anything.

True but the point of the forum is to place our opinions. If we’d knew we can run the Flyers

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I'd be curious to know how much of Axel Andersson's point production in SuperElite this past season was on the PP.

In their 16 year-old seasons in the SuperElite (2016/17), Andersson had 11 pts (3 g, 11 a) in 29 games; Ginning had 10 pts (0 g, 10 a) in 29 games.

This season (17/18), Andersson had 2 pts (1 g, 1 a) in 12 U18 international games for Sweden; Ginning had 7 pts (2 g, 5 a) in 13 U18 international games for Sweden.

Obviously, Ginning also has played 12 reg season and 2 playoff games in the SEL in 16/17, and 28 reg season and 7 playoff games in the SEL in 17/18, versus Andersson still having yet to play a game in the SEL.

I would also say that, based on the video I watched of Axel Andersson, he seemed (while skilled) to be a small PP specialist type, and the Flyers already have plenty of young PP defensemen. I'm not sure the Flyers would be the best fit to maximize his attributes.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I like this pick more than most on this board. I had Ginning in the 30s. He was the 5th ranked European player by Euro Central Scouting. Played most of the season in the SHL, which is a good predictor for someone his age of becoming an NHLer.

Kotkaniemi was ranked 6th by Central Scouting so we can pretty much conclude those rankings are useless.

I'd be curious to know how much of Axel Andersson's point production in SuperElite this past season was on the PP.

In their 16 year-old seasons in the SuperElite (2016/17), Andersson had 11 pts (3 g, 11 a) in 29 games; Ginning had 10 pts (0 g, 10 a) in 29 games.

This season (17/18), Andersson had 2 pts (1 g, 1 a) in 12 U18 international games for Sweden; Ginning had 7 pts (2 g, 5 a) in 13 U18 international games for Sweden.

Obviously, Ginning also has played 12 reg season and 2 playoff games in the SEL in 16/17, and 28 reg season and 7 playoff games in the SEL in 17/18, versus Andersson still having yet to play a game in the SEL.

I would also say that, based on the video I watched of Axel Andersson, he seemed (while skilled) to be a small PP specialist type, and the Flyers already have plenty of young PP defensemen. I'm not sure the Flyers would be the best fit to maximize his attributes.

Why not compare their 17 year old season as well? Andersson was playing behind David Bernhardt when he was 16, who we know was a stud at that level. Ginning's production from 16 to 17 was pretty much the same, so he either did not get better, or his 16 year old season was a fluke (1 goal between the two seasons). I think Andersson proved this year, he is offensively capable when given the opportunity. And btw, Hagg was a PPG defenseman at that level so....yeah.

As for international competition, Ginning was really the only '00 LHD Sweden had. So he was playing a lot of minutes and a lot of minutes with Boqvist, Lunkqvist, and Johansson. Andersson was playing behind 3 first round picks.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Kotkaniemi was ranked 6th by Central Scouting so we can pretty much conclude those rankings are useless.

Seems a bit early to conclude that the rankings are "useless." Even if you disagree with some of their rankings, maybe it's a small reason to give Ginning a chance before writing him off as a terrible draft choice at *50*. After all, the Flyers' scouts liked him at 50, too, and they've done well of late, particularly in Sweden.

Why not compare their 17 year old season as well? Andersson was playing behind David Bernhardt when he was 16, who we know was a stud at that level. Ginning's production from 16 to 17 was pretty much the same, so he either did not get better, or his 16 year old season was a fluke (1 goal between the two seasons). I think Andersson proved this year, he is offensively capable when given the opportunity. And btw, Hagg was a PPG defenseman at that level so....yeah.

This is why I started my post by asking how many of Andersson's points in SuperElite were on the PP this year. I get the feeling he's a small, PP-type specialist, and that's about the last thing the Flyers are in need of right now. They have plenty of PP-capable young defensemen on the team or on the cusp.

The issue isn't whether Andersson is more capable offensively when given the opportunity (PP time). The question is whether Andersson is more valuable than Ginning if Andersson isn't getting PP time. And for those who think Ginning is a dinosaur, it should be reassuring to realize he virtually equaled Andersson's point totals in SuperElite in 16/17 when Andersson wasn't a top PP guy, and that Ginning tripled Andersson's point production for the U18 Swedish team this year, when Andersson again wasn't a top PP guy. I'm sure playing with Boqvist had a lot to do with it. But I'm not trying to argue that Ginning is an offensive defenseman, and that's not what the Flyers need. I'm simply saying there are reasons to believe Ginning may not be as bad a pick at 50 for the Flyers vs. other available defensemen as many are making it out to be.

 

[Rebels57]

wrong thread

Wrong pick

 

[Appleyard]

I'd be curious to know how much of Axel Andersson's point production in SuperElite this past season was on the PP.

In their 16 year-old seasons in the SuperElite (2016/17), Andersson had 11 pts (3 g, 11 a) in 29 games; Ginning had 10 pts (0 g, 10 a) in 29 games.

This season (17/18), Andersson had 2 pts (1 g, 1 a) in 12 U18 international games for Sweden; Ginning had 7 pts (2 g, 5 a) in 13 U18 international games for Sweden.

Obviously, Ginning also has played 12 reg season and 2 playoff games in the SEL in 16/17, and 28 reg season and 7 playoff games in the SEL in 17/18, versus Andersson still having yet to play a game in the SEL.

I would also say that, based on the video I watched of Axel Andersson, he seemed (while skilled) to be a small PP specialist type, and the Flyers already have plenty of young PP defensemen. I'm not sure the Flyers would be the best fit to maximize his attributes.

Andersson is a pretty good 2-way Dman. Good defensive chops with gap-control and able to channel forwards away from dangerous areas... though he at times gets himself in trouble being too aggresive up ice, and is not the most physical.

Fantastic skater though with a great outlet.

Not just a PP guy though even though great there, here is a breakdown of his J20 scoring:

PP: 1-10-11
EV: 5-14-19
SH: 0-1-1

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Even if you want to say there’s a hidden layer offensively out of this kid I pretty much have zero faith in this organization to get it out of him.

 

[FlyTimmo]

After sleeping on this pick I am a liking it more (definitely don't love, but don't hate either). When people hear "swedish and physical" they think Hagg. Ginning isn't Hagg. In a world where Hagg doesn't exist and he is compared strictly to Adam Larsson people would be much more tolerant of this pick, dare I say like it.

The fact that he improved nicely throughout the season and does have some pretty good physical tools makes me optimistic. We don't need him to be a stud top pairing defenseman. We have 4 defenseman who are already top pairing players or guys who realistically have that potential. Having a really good steady defenseman is something we actually could use. MacDonald and Hagg might get called "steady", but they are far away from that.

And who's to say he can't improve further. He has the physical tools, and is a fairly good skater with above average IQ. He will likely never be a major threat offensively and that is perfectly fine. If he can be a great PK defenseman capable of making good outlet passes then that is good enough for me.

 

[NYCFlyer]

Flyers do seem to pick players that show improvement over their draft year season.

Its true and after watching some of the draftees and Hextall interviewed and reading some of the write-ups they really focus on motivated, hard working, high character intelligent players who improve throughout the year and seem to pass on some higher skill immature or quirky kids, some of whom just need to grow up and will be fine. We will see how that plays out but hard to really criticize Hextall's drafting looking back.

 

[hatcher]

Great pick.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Andersson is a pretty good 2-way Dman. Good defensive chops with gap-control and able to channel forwards away from dangerous areas... though he at times gets himself in trouble being too aggresive up ice, and is not the most physical.

Fantastic skater though with a great outlet.

Not just a PP guy though even though great there, here is a breakdown of his J20 scoring:

PP: 1-10-11
EV: 5-14-19
SH: 0-1-1

Thanks for the breakdown. Good info to know. I will be curious to see how Axel A's game translates 5 on 5 overseas. He'll definitely be a point of comparison in evaluating the Ginning pick down the road.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I am not going to get to worked up over this pick and his analytics being under whelming. He started the season as a 17 year old playing against men.
way to early to trash this pick IMO

 

[wankstifier]

Harry Potter could've picked Cho Chang, instead he went for fellow knuckle dragging jock, Ginny Weasley

 

[Rebels57]

My issue with the pick is less about Ginning and more about some of the players still available.

I wonder if Hextall makes this pick if they still had their 3rd.

The Mrazek trade

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

i thought most of us were ok with the trade at the time. OK it did not work out. But at the time it was a deal that had to be made with the unknown health of both goalies. Did we really want to run with Lyon and insert AHL scrub as our 1/2?
if Hextall didnt make that trade and the Flyers missed the playoffs what is the reaction around here?

 

[FlyTimmo]

My issue with the pick is less about Ginning and more about some of the players still available.

I wonder if Hextall makes this pick if they still had their 3rd.

The Mrazek trade

In the back-half of the 2nd round and later, I don't think it is worth worrying about who was still available. At that point everyone is a long shot.

We know Hextall seemed dead set on selecting a defenseman and the defenseman selected around him weren't particularly impressive to me. Durzi is nearly two full years older. Bahl has never impressed me and Addison is the definition of a long shot. Axel Andersson is the only guy defenseman selected in that area that I would have preferred.

While I would have preferred Berggren to JOB, it doesn't make it a poor pick whatsoever. Same thing applies to Ginning.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I wouldn’t take too much stock in local philly reports on Ginning.

Ginning seems like a big defensive d-man that’s still trying to improve his game. The Hagg comparisons are off imo.
If Ginning turns into a Adam Larsson type of player or close to it, that’s what the Flyers are in need of.

Adam Ginning - NHL - DraftSite.com

Handedness is a big advantage Larsson has, but more the point, the Flyers are in need of another LHD who provides little in the way of offense or transition game? Since you believe this is something they’re missing, I assume you want this team to get more defensive?

Dismissing concerns related to style as being local reports seems a little out of place. They might see more in the way of offense (and I hope they do), but is there one independent scouting service that does? I would genuinely love to read it if so. The last sentence was not sarcastic. I would enjoy having more hope.

 

[Rebels57]

In the back-half of the 2nd round and later, I don't think it is worth worrying about who was still available. At that point everyone is a long shot.

We know Hextall seemed dead set on selecting a defenseman and the defenseman selected around him weren't particularly impressive to me. Durzi is nearly two full years older. Bahl has never impressed me and Addison is the definition of a long shot. Axel Andersson is the only guy defenseman selected in that area that I would have preferred.

While I would have preferred Berggren to JOB, it doesn't make it a poor pick whatsoever. Same thing applies to Ginning.

Akil Thomas is a 1st round talent and was there. Hextall did not take BPA and drafted position instead which bothers me. I also would have preferred Nicklas Nordgren.

 

[Appleyard]

I am not going to get to worked up over this pick and his analytics being under whelming. He started the season as a 17 year old playing against men.
way to early to trash this pick IMO

Tbh his analytics from what I saw (when I tracked them pre Xmas) were pretty solid for a 17-18 year old. ~49% Corsi... even if minus relative.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Akil Thomas is a 1st round talent and was there. Hextall did not take BPA and drafted position instead which bothers me. I also would have preferred Nicklas Nordgren.

I liked him initially, but soured pretty heavily on Thomas. Guy doesn't do anything remotely special. His skating is average. He isn't explosive. He isn't elusive. His shot is average. The only thing that I like about him is he that he isn't stupid. Few "dumb" plays. His upside is ultimately extremely limited. I could be wrong because I only saw him a handful of times, but he seems like a future 4th liner at best.

As for Nordgren, yeah I would have preferred him, but only marginally, nothing worth getting upset about.

 

[The Madrigal]

adam ginning average ranking - 43
button 34, mckenzie 43, iss 17, mckeens 42, hockey prospect 49, future considerations 73, central scouting 5 euro

axel anderson average ranking - 86
button 70, mckenzie 93, 1ss 107, mckeens 88, hockey prospect 58, future considerations 98, central scouting 27 euro