Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 22, German Rubtsov, C, Russia U-19 (MHL)

[Striiker]

Well, if you can't dominate in juniors, what are the odds you'll be a decent NHL player?

 

[FLYguy3911]

That's why Sean Couturier is a 3rd line center. Couldn't crack 100 in the Q.

 

[Striiker]

I could go on too.

 

[deadhead]

Doesn't answer the question, what are the odds?

There's always a few anomalies, but how many highly skilled centers (i.e. not physical players who often mature later) fail to score at a high rate in juniors but went on to be top NHL scorers?

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Add RyJo and Wheeler off the top of my head.

 

[Magua]

Add Bergeron, Couture, TyJo, Krejci, Kesler (college/AHL), ROR, Kadri, Horvat. Those are just centers too; plenty of wings I could name. The list is lengthy of top 6 centers who never hit those arbitrary figures or finished their junior careers (some early) with good, not great, point totals relative to their age.

We all know this is a waste of our breath. But why oh why do these prospects have to even be "top scorers"? Holy ****.....can't they just end up "good players"?

 

[Striiker]

Doesn't answer the question, what are the odds?

There's always a few anomalies, but how many highly skilled centers (i.e. not physical players who often mature later) fail to score at a high rate in juniors but went on to be top NHL scorers?

I literally spent 1 minute and went down half the first page of 2016-2017 scorers on NHL.com and pulled all those guys, plus I could keep going and find a ton more.

It's obviously not as rare as you're saying.

 

[deadhead]

Most of the players who became scorers early in their NHL career were putting up big numbers at 18 in juniors.

Seguin, 63g 48-58 106
Getzlaf, 49g 28-47 75
Draisaitl, 64g 38-67 105
Scheifele, 47g 23-40 63
post-draft 45g 39-40 79
Marchand pre-draft 57g 33-47 80
post-draft 59g 31-42 73
Kane 58g 62-83 145
Tkachuk 57g 30-77 107
Konecny 60g 30-71 101
Beauvillier 47g 40-39 79
Ehlers 51g 37-64 101
Larkin college (18) 35g 15-32 47
Fabri 58g 45-42 87
Duclair 59g 50-49 99
Burskovsky 57g 41-46 87

Wheeler was unusual, didn't score that much in college, but at 6'5 225 he fits the mold of the late blooming big player. Reason to be patient with Ratcliffe, who may have to grow into his body for a few years.

I expect less from Frost, who is relatively underage v Rubtsov, who is both older and more experienced. Obviously, junior performance depends on team quality and coaching style, but fast, skilled players should excel there and that should be reflected in scoring.

 

[Striiker]

Out of curiosity, I went down the top 50 scoring forwards from last year to see how many hit 100 points in the CHL.

22 guys on that list played in the CHL.
12 of them never hit 100 points in any of their CHL seasons.

Here's each of their highest scoring seasons.

Connor McDavid 120
Sidney Crosby 168
Patrick Kane 145
Brad Marchand 80
Mark Scheifele 75
Leon Draisaitl 105
Ryan Getzlaf 75
Tyler Seguin 106
Jamie Benn 82
Jeff Carter 74
John Tavares 134
Eric Staal 98
Nikolaj Ehlers 104
Jeff Skinner 90
Nazem Kadri 78
Mike Hoffman 94
Jakub Voracek 101
Mitchell Marner 126
Ryan Johansen 92
Sean Monahan 78
Claude Giroux 112
Nino Niederreiter 68

 

[deadhead]

Out of curiosity, I went down the top 50 scoring forwards from last year to see how many hit 100 points in the CHL.

22 guys on that list played in the CHL.
12 of them never hit 100 points in any of their CHL seasons.

Here's each of their highest scoring seasons.

Except a number had truncated seasons, so a better question would be how many averaged 1.5 ppg (or more), which would give you 96 points in a 64 game season.
Scheifele for example, had 79 points in 45 games, which is 1.76 ppg.

 

[Curufinwe]

Weal averaged 100+ points over his last three Junior seasons, and is only becoming a full time NHL player at age 25.

 

[Flyotes]

@ no one in particular: I garner a lot from age 17 stats, but it is important to recognize there are different development paths. Hell, it seems some defensemen don't hit their prime till 28-29. It's weird.

 

[deadhead]

Which shows you how favorable junior hockey is to players with polished offensive skills.

Rubtsov is in his draft +2 year, has KHL experience, international experience, if he doesn't dominate junior hockey there's something seriously wrong. He's bigger, faster and older than most of the kids he'll be going against.

Frost is more complicated, because he's very young for his class, he's not going to have as big of an edge in his post-draft season. However, he's very fast and skilled, and junior hockey is conducive to high scoring by this type of player.

Ratcliffe on the other hand is 6'6, probably going to add 20-30 lbs over the next few years, and like most exceptionally big men, will take time to be comfortable with his body. So my expectations for him are lower, I suspect he may not get going until 22-23.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

People also need to get it through their head that playing on a third line on a contending team does not mean you are a league average 3rd liner. It is possible to be better then the position you hold on he team if there is great depth in front of you.

 

[Rebels57]

People also need to get it through their head that playing on a third line on a contending team does not mean you are a league average 3rd liner. It is possible to be better then the position you hold on he team if there is great depth in front of you.

As others have mentioned..theres little difference between 2nd and 3rd lines in todays NHL. Middle Six is now more appropriate.

 

[Psuhockey]

As others have mentioned..theres little difference between 2nd and 3rd lines in todays NHL. Middle Six is now more appropriate.

You also have the salary cap aspect that is spreading out talent amongst the 3 lines. Patrick Maroon is a 3rd line talent but has played on the 1st line. Phil Kessel won Pittsburgh a cup playing on the 3rd line.

So Rubtsov may be a middle six talent but could he round out a top line with Patrick and Konecny at left wing?

 

[Rebels57]

You also have the salary cap aspect that is spreading out talent amongst the 3 lines. Patrick Maroon is a 3rd line talent but has played on the 1st line. Phil Kessel won Pittsburgh a cup playing on the 3rd line.

So Rubtsov may be a middle six talent but could he round out a top line with Patrick and Konecny at left wing?

Well said.

The game has changed but a lot of longtime fans are stuck in the past.

 

[deadhead]

There's a big difference between a top 6 talent playing on the third line because you have a deep team, and a 3rd line talent playing on the 2nd line by default because of the lack of depth.

Flyers have been the team playing guys by default, hopefully going forward they'll be the team with top 6 guys on the third line and middle 6 guys on the 4th line.

 

[Appleyard]

For me in regards to Rubtsov:

Likely ceiling: ~60pt C/LW. Think Ryan O'Reilly, good two way player with some skill.

Most likely: ~40-50pt C/LW, good two-way player.

Likely floor: ~30-35pt C/LW, solid 3rd liner who PKs and occasionally shows some insane skill.


As for this season, he was at 1.38 PPG last season, 94 point pace.

I mean, I would expect he paces for ~100-105 this season given his ability level. But only 2 players hit 100 in the QMJHL in each of the last 2 years, and Chicoutimi are not going to be as good as they were.

 

[Rebels57]

For me in regards to Rubtsov:

Likely ceiling: ~60pt C/LW. Think Ryan O'Reilly, good two way player with some skill.

Most likely: ~40-50pt C/LW, good two-way player.

Likely floor: ~30-35pt C/LW, solid 3rd liner who PKs and occasionally shows some insane skill.


As for this season, he was at 1.38 PPG last season, 94 point pace.

I mean, I would expect he paces for ~100-105 this season given his ability level. But only 2 players hit 100 in the QMJHL in each of the last 2 years, and Chicoutimi are not going to be as good as they were.

Yep only Hischier had a better PPG among Q rookies. Not much more we could ask for last season in his brief stint.

 

[Hockeypete49]

For me in regards to Rubtsov:

Likely ceiling: ~60pt C/LW. Think Ryan O'Reilly, good two way player with some skill.

Most likely: ~40-50pt C/LW, good two-way player.

Likely floor: ~30-35pt C/LW, solid 3rd liner who PKs and occasionally shows some insane skill.


As for this season, he was at 1.38 PPG last season, 94 point pace.

I mean, I would expect he paces for ~100-105 this season given his ability level. But only 2 players hit 100 in the QMJHL in each of the last 2 years, and Chicoutimi are not going to be as good as they were.

I like this kid and was very impressed the way he handled himself after he came over from his homeland. He is a better skater than I first thought and really plays well in tight areas. His game really translates well in the North American style of play. I am hoping in the future we can look back at the 2016 draft and come away impressed.

 

[Curufinwe]

This is old news, but Kieffer Bellows left Boston U to play for Portland in the WHL this season.

 

[hystyk1921]

I will just leave this here. Eww German eww
https://mobile.twitter.com/davegisaac/status/907637528123101184/video/1

 

[Rebels57]

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Damn. Rubtsov looks pretty big.