Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

[Rebels57]

JOB has 13pts in 8 games so far in the BCHL. That puts him on a 94pt pace over the 58 game schedule.

If he keeps up that production, does he reestablish himself as a top prospect? Serious question, I don't know what to expect with him being in the BCHL. It sounds impressive to me at face value.

2.00 PPG is the target

 

[deadhead]

If you figure Frost, almost a year younger, put up 1.88 ppg in the CHL, 2.0 is a reasonable goal for JOB in the BCHL.

 

[bear3330]

Thanks for all the feedback, hopefully he turns it up a notch through the rest of the season. Would hate to see a 1st rounder bust.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Flukeshot]

It's been a long time since I've heard anything about O'Brien. Any indication on where he expects to play in 20-21?

His Elite prospects page says Boston U?

How many more seasons of College eligibility does he have?

 

[Rebels57]

It's been a long time since I've heard anything about O'Brien. Any indication on where he expects to play in 20-21?

His Elite prospects page says Boston U?

How many more seasons of College eligibility does he have?

The most recent article I can find on him. Seems like he found his game in the BCHL and it does appear he is headed for Boston U (unless the season is cancelled). Either way, he needs to take the confidence he found in the BCHL and translate it to the next level before my hopes for him will start to raise again.

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/flyers/flyers-prospect-jay-obrien-bchl-opponents-perspective-chris-clark

 

[Flukeshot]

The most recent article I can find on him. Seems like he found his game in the BCHL and it does appear he is headed for Boston U (unless the season is cancelled). Either way, he needs to take the confidence he found in the BCHL and translate it to the next level before my hopes for him will start to raise again.

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/flyers/flyers-prospect-jay-obrien-bchl-opponents-perspective-chris-clark

Thanks. To me this pick directly represented my frustration with Hextall's slow approach. It was a massive reach and definitely was the pick to trade for more immediate improvement. Now the fact that O'Brien will take 4 yrs to "figure out" just elongates that reminder.

 

[Rebels57]

Thanks. To me this pick directly represented my frustration with Hextall's slow approach. It was a massive reach and definitely was the pick to trade for more immediate improvement. Now the fact that O'Brien will take 4 yrs to "figure out" just elongates that reminder.

Yeah, it's not looking like a wise pick right now. Especially with Rasmus Kupari and K'Andre Miller, to name a few, on the board. Maybe if we go defensemen there, we go with Alex Newhook in 2019 rather than Cam York? He's looking like a steal for Colorado.

Hopefully O'Brien is on the right path now.

 

[Tripod]

Yeah, it's not looking like a wise pick right now. Especially with Rasmus Kupari and K'Andre Miller, to name a few, on the board. Maybe if we go defensemen there, we go with Alex Newhook in 2019 rather than Cam York? He's looking like a steal for Colorado.

Hopefully O'Brien is on the right path now.

At least there is always the "do not sign" option.

If we don't sign him due to lack of development, we get a 2nd rounder back from the draft at some point. So if/when he thinks he is ready, Fletch needs to evaluate if he is worth signing....or take the 2nd and reinvest in someone else.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Bum hasn't scored in over a month

 

[Curufinwe]

Thanks. To me this pick directly represented my frustration with Hextall's slow approach. It was a massive reach and definitely was the pick to trade for more immediate improvement. Now the fact that O'Brien will take 4 yrs to "figure out" just elongates that reminder.

Laughton + Lehtera + 19th for ROR.

 

[Rebels57]

Laughton + Lehtera + 19th for ROR.

Is that the actual equivalent of what St. Louis gave up?

 

[Curufinwe]

It was an offer I came up with when ROR was on the block, and I think it's better than what they actually got.

Ryan O'Reilly Trades - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[deadhead]

I think you also have to accept that players have different development curves, he'll be 21 this fall, he was 5'11 176 at the Combine in 2018, listed at 5'11 185 by EP, but is probably in the 190s by now, good size for a guy with top speed.

He showed enough in the BCHL to hope he can get back the form that got him drafted, you can never have too many fast, skilled forwards with enough size to hold their own in the NHL.

You get spoiled by players like Farabee, it's more normal for even a top (but not elite, i.e. top 10 draft pick) prospect to take a few years to make their mark.

Looking at forwards by draft, picks 15-30:
2014
#15 Dylan Larkin - 1yr college, NHL at 19
#16 Milano - 1yr CHL, 2 yr AHL, 27 AHL games, NHL at 23
#18 Tuch - 2yr college, 1 yr AHL, NHL at 21
#20 Schmaltz - 2yr college, 12 AHL games NHL at 20
#21 Fabbri - 1 year CHL, NHL at 19, quick start then flounder before bouncing back with Chicago at age 23
#23 Bleackley - flop
#24 McCann - 1 CHL, 42 AHL games NHL at 20
#25 Pastrnak - 25 AHL games, NHL at 19
2015
#15 Sensyshyn - 2 years college, AHL this season, turned 23 in March
#16 Barzal - 2 PD CHL seasons, NHL 2017-18 at age 20
#17 Connor - 1 yr college, 52 AHL games, 20 NHL games, NHL at age 20
#19 Svechnikov - 1 year CHL, 3 yr AHL
#20 Eriksson Ek - 2yr SHL, NHL at 20, didn't show much until 22
#21 Colin White - 2yr college, 47 AHL games, NHL at 20
#23 Boeser - 2yr college, NHL at 20
#24 TK - NHL at 19
#25 Roslovic - 1yr college, 1 yr AHL, then 32 AHL games, NHL at age 21
2016
#15 Luke Kunin - 1 college, 32 AHL, 12 AHL then NHL at 21
#19 Bellows - 1 college, 1 CHL, 2 AHL
#21 Gauthier - CHL, 3 AHL
#22 Rubtsov - 2 CHL, 2 AHL
#23 Borgstrom - 2 college, 24 AHL, 50 NHL at 21, then back to the AHL at 22
#24 Max Jones - 2 CHL, 43 AHL, then NHL at 21
#25 Tufte - 3 college, 1 AHL
2017
#20 Robert Thomas
#21 Filip Chytil
#19 Norris, #22 Yamamoto, #24 Vesalainen, #25 Poehling yet to make their mark
2018
#23 Lundestrom only forward to make the NHL (30 games)

2014 and 2015 were ridiculously deep drafts for forwards, 2016-18 are more typical.

JOB is a year behind, but he should need no more than two seasons to make the NHL by 2022-23, when he'll turn 23 in November. This year will be tough if NCAA is canceled, but he'll be physically mature, so if the skills are there, he should rapidly climb the learning curve.

If he arrives in 2022-23, it'll be when contracts start expiring and players like Farabee, Frost and Brink are ready to take top 6 roles, leaving the opportunity to win a 3rd line spot, though if he fills out, with his speed he could start as a 4th line forechecker.

 

[Rebels57]

It was an offer I came up with when ROR was on the block, and I think it's better than what they actually got.

Ryan O'Reilly Trades - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

God, that trade was such trash.

2 cap dumps, a B prospect at best, and a conditional 2019 1st which ended up being 31st overall and a 2021 2nd for a Selke Candidate center still in his prime.

 

[deadhead]

Of course, to be fair, ROR had 5 meh seasons, not just in Buffalo, but his last two in Colorado, so there was good reason to think what you see is all you're gonna get.
Colorado
2013-14: CF 48.80%, xGF 48.19%, CFrel +2.59, xGFrel +2.78, pp/60 1.90
2014-15: CF 46.04%, xGF 46.99%, CFrel +4.10, xGFrel +6.73, pp/60 1.92
Buffalo
2015-16: CF 48.57%, xGF 47.52%, CFrel +0.93, xGFrel +0.42, pp/60, 1.40
2016-17: CF 49.26%, xGF 49.52%, CFrel +2.19, xGFrel +2.64, pp/60, 1.38
2017-18: CF 49.91%, xGF 49.64%, CFrel +3.06, xGFrel +4.75, pp/60, 1.07

This wasn't Couts being underutilized on the offense but putting up great metrics.
Though ROR's relative statistics indicated he was being dragged down by mediocre teammates.

A good projection would be that he'd rebound leaving Buffalo, and be a solid 2C.
St Louis got surplus value as his scoring rebounded above his Colorado days.

 

[renberg]

JOB got himself in a real mess with the commitment to Providence. Perhaps he felt that by going there he would boost his defensive skills but whatever, it was a bad fit and he got himself out of there. The BCHL was the best interim place for him to go since he had to sit out a season. He really needs this upcoming year to show the Flyers what he can do. I’m not for writing him off. He has skills.
One thing that I would say is that any prospect that chooses to go to Providence is nuts. Tough coaching experiences and a school that won’t release a player when things don’t work out. The place should be avoided like the plague.

 

[freakydallas13]

I have mostly written him off. At this point anything positive he does is a bonus, like Rubtsov and Morin. Patrick too, until he proves he can play and take hits again.

Sad to think the we had 5 first round picks from 2016 to 2018 and only 2 of them are ever expected to contribute (especially when one was a 2nd overall).

 

[rinaldo]

I have mostly written him off. At this point anything positive he does is a bonus, like Rubtsov and Morin. Patrick too, until he proves he can play and take hits again.

Sad to think the we had 5 first round picks from 2016 to 2018 and only 2 of them are ever expected to contribute (especially when one was a 2nd overall).

The former GM has some potentially big early whiffs from his drafts. JOB, Ginning, possibly Patrick and ratcliff,German, and Labarge. With the jury still out on many others. Cant wait to see how it all shakes out.

Looks like his first draft might be arguably his best.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I supported the O’Brien pick, seemed like a tenacious player with skill, but it’s not looking promising. Something is missing. He has not done well against increased competition. Maybe the hockey sense just isn’t there.

 

[Rebels57]

I have mostly written him off. At this point anything positive he does is a bonus, like Rubtsov and Morin. Patrick too, until he proves he can play and take hits again.

Sad to think the we had 5 first round picks from 2016 to 2018 and only 2 of them are ever expected to contribute (especially when one was a 2nd overall).

2017 - Patrick and Frost = both expected to contribute
2018 - Farabee = already contributing and its way too early to completely write off O'Brien

2016 we missed on our 1st but got Hart, Allison, Laczynski, and Hogberg after the 1st

Nothing sad to see here. Our recent draft record is still much better than the majority of teams.

 

[freakydallas13]

2017 - Patrick and Frost = both expected to contribute
2018 - Farabee = already contributing and its way too sign to completely write off O'Brien

2016 we missed on our 1st but got Hart, Allison, Laczynski, and Hogberg after the 1st

Nothing sad to see here. Our recent draft record is still much better than the majority of teams.

Like I said, I'm not expecting Patrick to produce at this point. He has some hurdles to clear before he can suit up again.

 

[freakydallas13]

The former GM has some potentially big early whiffs from his drafts. JOB, Ginning, possibly Patrick and ratcliff,German, and Labarge. With the jury still out on many others. Cant wait to see how it all shakes out.

Looks like his first draft might be arguably his best.

You can't really blame Hextall for injuries like Patrick and Laberge had, they are just unfortunate.

 

[deadhead]

The former GM has some potentially big early whiffs from his drafts. JOB, Ginning, possibly Patrick and ratcliff,German, and Labarge. With the jury still out on many others. Cant wait to see how it all shakes out.

Looks like his first draft might be arguably his best.

Some bad luck with Labarge, and Rubtsov has struggled with injuries.
And of course, Patrick was the ultimate in bad luck, he looked like he was ready to turn the corner at 20 years old.
JOB is way too early to write off, his bounce back in the BCHL says his skills are intact, just has to climb the learning curve.

Ginning was #50, you're going to miss on the majority of picks at that point in the draft, given we hit on NAK and Hart, and Allison seems to be over his ACL, not a bad track record overall.
It'll look a lot better if Ratcliffe pans out in a couple years.

 

[Rebels57]

Like I said, I'm not expecting Patrick to produce at this point. He has some hurdles to clear before he can suit up again.

There's really no reason to "not expect Patrick to produce" though.

He will be back at some point next season and still has the talent to produce. In 2 years time this entire unfortunate situation could be firmly in the rearview mirror while Patrick is pushing Hayes for 2C ice time.