Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick #19: Jay O'Brien, C, MA-USHS --> Providence U

[TheKingPin]

I read that the Rags had interest in him. They had #22 and #28.

I remember hearing at least 3 or 4 teams were gearing up to take him in the back end of the first. It seems like O'Brien was Hextall's guy and he went up to the podium and took him. I'm completely fine with that and love the pick. Upside in spades.

That’s right, it was the Rangers. Makes a lot of sense with the number of picks they had. That would explain why we didn’t trade back. So often, the type of players that were available at the end of the round don’t turn into much while the player we get is an all star. Everything considered, he is a VERY exciting pick. Could be the same as drafting a top 10 talent a year early.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I remember hearing at least 3 or 4 teams were gearing up to take him in the back end of the first. It seems like O'Brien was Hextall's guy and he went up to the podium and took him. I'm completely fine with that and love the pick. Upside in spades.

Where are you reading this? Seems like most projections have him in the middle six (only one I have seen projecting higher than that is Bill Meltzer saying top six or middle six). I don't dislike the pick at all, I am just not as sold on him as others. There were guys like Kupari, Miller, Bokk, and Veleno out there that I would have thought would be the pick. I know all those players have flaws too, I am just not seeing the super high upside, even in the most gracious scouting reports and projections. Maybe someone can post a write up that talks about this high upside? I have seen quotes from Amonte, but of course your coach is going to gush over you. I think after he plays next season I'll be more into the pick, assuming he plays well of course.

 

[Bencosy]

Where are you reading this? Seems like most projections have him in the middle six (only one I have seen projecting higher than that is Bill Meltzer saying top six or middle six).

Maybe someone can post a write up that talks about this high upside?

Taken from the very first scouting report posted on this thread:

"Projection and Comparison

O’Brien is a project. He will need some time to adjust to faster games, and to the level of competition, he will face in the NCAA. Expect him to spend a year or two in college before moving on to the pros. There is high-end potential though, and this could be a very good risk/reward type pick for a team. O’Brien’s game is reminiscent of Nathan MacKinnon, however, this is just a stylistic comparison and not one based on potential or ability." -Last Word On Hockey

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Taken from the very first scouting report posted on this thread:

"Projection and Comparison

O’Brien is a project. He will need some time to adjust to faster games, and to the level of competition, he will face in the NCAA. Expect him to spend a year or two in college before moving on to the pros. There is high-end potential though, and this could be a very good risk/reward type pick for a team. O’Brien’s game is reminiscent of Nathan MacKinnon, however, this is just a stylistic comparison and not one based on potential or ability." -Last Word On Hockey

Yeah that just says "high end" potential after calling him a project that needs to adjust. That isn't really a glowing endorsement (similar to the Meltzer article that says top or middle six). People seem to be juiced up about this kid, as @Young Sandwich said he has "upside in spades." I don't think saying a kid is a project with high end potential and Meltzer saying he could be top or middle six forward is "upside in spades" and another poster here saying he could be the same as drafting a top ten talent a year early.

 

[Bencosy]

Yeah that just says "high end" potential after calling him a project that needs to adjust. That isn't really a glowing endorsement (similar to the Meltzer article that says top or middle six). People seem to be juiced up about this kid, as @Young Sandwich said he has "upside in spades." I don't think saying a kid is a project with high end potential and Meltzer saying he could be top or middle six forward is "upside in spades" and another poster here saying he could be the same as drafting a top ten talent a year early.

I hear ya. It's all a matter of interpretation. After reading some of the scouting reports, I think some people see this as another potential Frost-like draft selection. I admittedly fall into that camp.

In regards to the Flyers drafting O'Brien instead of selecting another player, like Veleno, read Hextall's quote below:

"We liked him more than Veleno or we would've picked Veleno," Hextall said of O'Brien. "It's upside but we don't feel there's as much risk probably. The history is, there is risk when you take a kid out of that level but we're just going to go by the board, we don't need scouts, right? Like I said, our guys have done a real good job, they see things the way they are, we talk about it, we beat it up and we come to conclusions."

Flyers snag goal-scoring American center at No. 19

 

[Young Sandwich]

Yeah that just says "high end" potential after calling him a project that needs to adjust. That isn't really a glowing endorsement (similar to the Meltzer article that says top or middle six). People seem to be juiced up about this kid, as @Young Sandwich said he has "upside in spades." I don't think saying a kid is a project with high end potential and Meltzer saying he could be top or middle six forward is "upside in spades" and another poster here saying he could be the same as drafting a top ten talent a year early.

And you wonder why you get flamed to oblivion on here haha.

I've said it before, but I think his package of elite skill, grit, tenacity, competitiveness, and drive to get better is a recipe for a potential star. The fact that he was "under the radar" because he played high school hockey could be a blessing in disguise. That is upside. Now whether he puts it all together at the next few levels is another story, but he has the upside to make that happen in my opinion. Plus he grew up in the same town Peach is from, so he must be one tough bastard.

His main board prospect thread has some good insight and quotes on him if you haven't read it yet.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/c-jay-obrien-thayer-acad-ne-prep-2018-19th-phi.2466121/

 

[deadhead]

Look, all draft picks past the first couple (and teams have blown those) have risk involved, either you trust your scouts as Ron says, or just fire them all and pick from the media consensus.
Since the Flyer scouts have done a great job the previous four years, I think their judgment should be respected.

Does that mean O'Brien will turn out better than the other players we passed over for him? Maybe.
But it's not like we've missed on a lot of picks the last four years in any round (one reason to be patient with Ginning).
And at #19, with as close as you get to a "sure thing" in Farabee at #14, why not gamble on upside and speed - this team can certainly use a combination of speed and edge a la TK.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

And you wonder why you get flamed to oblivion on here haha.

I've said it before, but I think his package of elite skill, grit, tenacity, competitiveness, and drive to get better is a recipe for a potential star. The fact that he was "under the radar" because he played high school hockey could be a blessing in disguise. That is upside. Now whether he puts it all together at the next few levels is another story, but he has the upside to make that happen in my opinion. Plus he grew up in the same town Peach is from, so he must be one tough bastard.

His main board prospect thread has some good insight and quotes on him if you haven't read it yet.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/c-jay-obrien-thayer-acad-ne-prep-2018-19th-phi.2466121/

You know me well enough to know that I have not it read it because it has not been spoonfed to me.

 

[Everlong]

Hextall has become so predictable, just identify the skill players with the highest character (not boy scout, but work ethic, compete level, etc.) and that's your 1st rd picks, and take any player with serious character flaws (selfish, lazy, takes plays off, etc) off the board.

I’m pretty sure Hextall confirmed that is his post draft interview. Didn’t he say something to the effect that they place a heavy scouting emphasis on not only trying to determine the prospect’s talent “ceiling”, but on their potential to reach/exceed it?

 

[Larry44]

Another example of O'Brien's potential, Dan Silver, said he was the most dynamic player at the Development Camp. Now, I get this was only a development camp and he's not going to get to come to rookie or training camp, but it speaks well for his potential. It looks like he's a potential stud, compared to Roenick. If he hits .75Roenicks he'll be a great addition...







and a nice deke:

Dan Silver on Twitter

 

[Young Sandwich]

You know me well enough to know that I have not it read it because it has not been spoonfed to me.

Consider it spoonfed.

 

[sa cyred]

Where are you reading this? Seems like most projections have him in the middle six (only one I have seen projecting higher than that is Bill Meltzer saying top six or middle six). I don't dislike the pick at all, I am just not as sold on him as others. There were guys like Kupari, Miller, Bokk, and Veleno out there that I would have thought would be the pick. I know all those players have flaws too, I am just not seeing the super high upside, even in the most gracious scouting reports and projections. Maybe someone can post a write up that talks about this high upside? I have seen quotes from Amonte, but of course your coach is going to gush over you. I think after he plays next season I'll be more into the pick, assuming he plays well of course.

Watch some of his tape. You will see the skill. When playing with other first round picks (Wahlstrom, Tkachuk, Farabee) he didn't look out of place at all. He also said he chose to stay in highschool because he beleived there, he had more of an opportunity to play with the other team solely focusing on him, compared to the space he had at other levels. He literally had teams soley focus on shadowing him.

Can't really talk about upside here when you wanted Veleno who doesnt have very high upside at all. While only development camp, many who went to it stated he was one of the most skilled players there... and that included very skilled guys like Frost, Farabee, Strome, etc. (EDIT: Larry beat me)

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Look, all draft picks past the first couple (and teams have blown those) have risk involved, either you trust your scouts as Ron says, or just fire them all and pick from the media consensus.
Since the Flyer scouts have done a great job the previous four years, I think their judgment should be respected.

Does that mean O'Brien will turn out better than the other players we passed over for him? Maybe.
But it's not like we've missed on a lot of picks the last four years in any round (one reason to be patient with Ginning).
And at #19, with as close as you get to a "sure thing" in Farabee at #14, why not gamble on upside and speed - this team can certainly use a combination of speed and edge a la TK.

I am absolutely not saying this is a bad pick or anything like that, I am just having a hard time understanding the people talking about this great upside that doesn't seem to appear anywhere but in this thread (i.e., pre- and post- draft scouting reports). I'm totally fine with the pick but I'm not overjoyed about it. Even if the top end is that of a middle sixer, which seems to be what the majority of people are writing about him, it's a fine pick. I just don't understand ranking him over a guy like Allison or Ratcliffe, who seem to have a more clear path to that top six role, or even that of Rubstov or Vorobyov because of their apparent potential value and likelihood of being bottom six guys.

 

[Bencosy]

FWIW, here's another article where a scout from NHL Central Scouting is quoted as saying O'Brien has "very, very good upside."

Buffalo Sabres news By Bill Hoppe

 

[deadhead]

. I just don't understand ranking him over a guy like Allison or Ratcliffe, who seem to have a more clear path to that top six role, or even that of Rubstov or Vorobyov because of their apparent potential value and likelihood of being bottom six guys.

I agree on Allison and Ratcliffe, who have demonstrated enough upside at a higher level.
However, Rubtsov hasn't demonstrated that upside, and Vorobyev, unless his skating really improves, is probably a very good bottom six guy.
O'Brien probably has similar upside to TK, a shorter but physical offensive forward with very good speed.

 

[TheKingPin]

I am absolutely not saying this is a bad pick or anything like that, I am just having a hard time understanding the people talking about this great upside that doesn't seem to appear anywhere but in this thread (i.e., pre- and post- draft scouting reports). I'm totally fine with the pick but I'm not overjoyed about it. Even if the top end is that of a middle sixer, which seems to be what the majority of people are writing about him, it's a fine pick. I just don't understand ranking him over a guy like Allison or Ratcliffe, who seem to have a more clear path to that top six role, or even that of Rubstov or Vorobyov because of their apparent potential value and likelihood of being bottom six guys.

He’s so young and unproven that his biggest positive is his upside. You are hoping to that maybe he is as good as he looked against better competition. He scored as much as anyone really could score no matter the talent. That plus the his individual skill is what makes him attractive. There are guys every year that everyone on here and the media gush over. The flyers really never take that guy. It seems to workout literally every time. Dmen is still something that they are figuring out and doing a good job with, but any forward they take, any center, you have to think is the next Richards, Gagne, Williams, Sharp, Giroux, Frost. I mean if they had just kept their firsts and the players drafted in the first , we could have one a cup by now. O’Brien knew the clues would pick him bc they came to see him a lot. They did their work. As fans you just get to sit and relax and watch the good times go.

 

[Rebels57]

Paul Stewart compared him to a young Roenick.

Maguire had him as his 10th favorite prospect.

I fell in love with this kids game after just a few minutes of tape. He really pops, whether it be gametape or development camp tape.

 

[Larry44]

I am absolutely not saying this is a bad pick or anything like that, I am just having a hard time understanding the people talking about this great upside that doesn't seem to appear anywhere but in this thread (i.e., pre- and post- draft scouting reports). I'm totally fine with the pick but I'm not overjoyed about it. Even if the top end is that of a middle sixer, which seems to be what the majority of people are writing about him, it's a fine pick. I just don't understand ranking him over a guy like Allison or Ratcliffe, who seem to have a more clear path to that top six role, or even that of Rubstov or Vorobyov because of their apparent potential value and likelihood of being bottom six guys.

You're points about relative value and readiness are well taken, re: Allison, Rat, Voro, Ruby, but I think a lot of us heard the post draft reaction, which was similar to Frost reaction, i.e. several teams were hoping to jump up and grab him hoping others were sleeping on him. It's also an act of well-earned, imho, faith in the scouts to grab excellent players later in the first round. The character attributed to him by Paul Stewart, the other teams' scouts who raved, knowing Boston was hoping to get him and it seems the Rangers too. If this kid turns into another stud, and it looks like Farabee might too, esp. if he has a growth spurt and catches his brothers, we could really have a some talent. In our scouts we trust.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I certainly like what I am hearing about him in these additional writeups. I want to love this pick, I really do! I love drafting American players and I absolutely love the Frizbee pick at 14, and I especially love drafting a guy that came from JR's old haunts. This kind of reminds of when the Flyers chose Rubstov. I didn't have a problem with the pick, I just wasn't thrilled about it (I wanted Tufte, Bellows, Jones, or Thompson). I still think Rubstov is going to be a good NHL player, like a more balanced 3C. A guy that can generate offense but also play good defense. Hopefully O'Brien exceeds this and once he starts playing against NCAA talent I think there will be a lot more to be written about him that will get me geared up.

 

[Larry44]

I certainly like what I am hearing about him in these additional writeups. I want to love this pick, I really do! I love drafting American players and I absolutely love the Frizbee pick at 14, and I especially love drafting a guy that came from JR's old haunts. This kind of reminds of when the Flyers chose Rubstov. I didn't have a problem with the pick, I just wasn't thrilled about it (I wanted Tufte, Bellows, Jones, or Thompson). I still think Rubstov is going to be a good NHL player, like a more balanced 3C. A guy that can generate offense but also play good defense. Hopefully O'Brien exceeds this and once he starts playing against NCAA talent I think there will be a lot more to be written about him that will get me geared up.

I posted these links in the JOB thread on the Prospects board, thought I'd share here too. Interesting reading and a solid endorsement for his family and character.





HockeyBuzz.com - Paul Stewart - Philly Got a Good One in Jay O'Brien

Paul Stewart: One of most intriguing picks in the 2018 NHL Draft was Thayer Academy center Jay O'Brien, selected 19th overall in the first round by the Philadelphia Flyers. Down the line, I think he's going to be a very good NHL player. He reminds me quite a bit of a young Jeremy Roenick -- another Thayer Academy product -- in his puck skills, shooting ability, competitiveness and agitator streak. He is an exceptional skater, very good on both edges, and he has solid two-way instincts. He's a hockey player, through and through.

 

[Chuck Downie]

Not sure if this pre-draft article has been posted yet. The quote at the end sticks out the most:

"...Nothing’s going to stop me. I’m going to play in the NHL.”

PC-bound Jay O'Brien can't wait to see which NHL team drafts him

Confidence is a good thing.

 

[Dooblus Dooizfour]

Paul Stewart compared him to a young Roenick.

Maguire had him as his 10th favorite prospect.

I fell in love with this kids game after just a few minutes of tape. He really pops, whether it be gametape or development camp tape.

Really like the way he handles himself with the media also. He just oozes confidence and determination

 

[tictactoe]

pierre Maguire lol... ha ha...

 

[deadhead]

One thing O'Brien and Farabee show is Ron has a different standard for "smurfs" than TB.
Farabee will probably fill out to 6'0 190 or so, O'Brien 5'10 190, Frost 5'11 185-190, TK 5'10 190, Lycksell, Cates, etc.
That is, his speedy scoring types are still big enough to effectively forecheck and backcheck in today's NHL.

While they're not going to park in front of the net, and will depend on their speed and quickness to win pucks in corners and along the boards, they're not going to be roadkill in a crowd, either.

 

[Boxscore]

When it comes to drafting 1st round talent, the Flyers (under Hextall) have been as great as any team in the league. I still like Mittestadt more than Patrick, but the Frost over Tolvanen pick is starting to win me over. Farabee and O'Brien were both awesome picks IMO.