Prospect Info: Round 1, Pick 14: Cam York, D, USNTDP --> Michigan

Rebels57

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I was psyched on Caufield but I think the bust factor is real and probably what scared the Flyers away (and everyone else that passed on him). Smaller guys are still at a disadvantage and the size difference is something he'll have to account for. We've seen it play out well in the past but there is a reason that the league doesn't have a ton of 5'7" superstars.

I would have preferred the Flyers taking Caufield but I get why they didn't. York looks like probably the second best (or at least safest) defenseman in the draft on paper. We'll find out in a few years if they made the right choice.

I don't think it was his height that bothered them, and they have said as much. The must have just felt he was too one-dimensional and lacked in other area of the game that don't show up on the score sheet (a bit like Laine in that regard maybe?).

I think they are preparing to lose a dman to Seattle too. York can be plugged right in if and when that happens.
 
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Kettil33

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Think of it like, would you rather:

Cole Caufield + a dman like Jayden Struble/Drew Helleson/Matt Robertson

or

Cam York + Bobby Brink

While there is a gap between Caufield & Brink and Caufield is the better prospect, the gap is not nearly as significant as the gap in caliber of prospect between York and the D that were there to pick from in the 2nd.

Draft history says otherwise. The gap between hit chances of D-men drafted in the teens versus 2nd round is smaller than the hit chance on scoring forwards drafted in those two relative positions.

That's why the pick is terrible. Its cowardly cop out on a safe pick while ignoring opportunity cost - you can get d-men like York later in the draft because d-men are harder to project. the only d-men worth drafting are the sure thing studs who have adequate size, + skating and + skill like Byram. Otherwise, d-men that are solid come from all rounds and are signed as undrafted guys all the time. Top 6 scoring forwards come form the top half of the 1st round of the draft - especially in drafts deep on forward like this one. You don't get shots at Caufield, Krebs, Boldy, Newhook later in the draft - you get guys with glaring deficiencies like Brink (small and skating -) that are extreme long shots.
 

Rebels57

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Draft history says otherwise. The gap between hit chances of D-men drafted in the teens versus 2nd round is smaller than the hit chance on scoring forwards drafted in those two relative positions.

That's why the pick is terrible. Its cowardly cop out on a safe pick while ignoring opportunity cost - you can get d-men like York later in the draft because d-men are harder to project. the only d-men worth drafting are the sure thing studs who have adequate size, + skating and + skill like Byram. Otherwise, d-men that are solid come from all rounds and are signed as undrafted guys all the time. Top 6 scoring forwards come form the top half of the 1st round of the draft - especially in drafts deep on forward like this one. You don't get shots at Caufield, Krebs, Boldy, Newhook later in the draft - you get guys with glaring deficiencies like Brink (small and skating -) that are extreme long shots.

You can be dissapointed in not drafting Caufield without being this dismissive of York as a prospect. He's a very good D prospect, and can potentially replace a dman if we lose one in 2 years to Seattle.

Also, calling Brink an extreme long-shot is just nonsense. He was in a lot of experts top 20. He has ridiculous offensive skill and the two knocks you list against him are also knocks on Caufield. He's even smaller and while his skating is better than Brink's, it's not "great."
 

FLYguy3911

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Draft history says otherwise. The gap between hit chances of D-men drafted in the teens versus 2nd round is smaller than the hit chance on scoring forwards drafted in those two relative positions.
In general, you are right, but in this specific case, I don't think he is wrong. Brink is a lot closer to Caufield than those defensemen taken in the middle of the 2nd round are to York. Imo of course.

That's why the pick is terrible. Its cowardly cop out on a safe pick while ignoring opportunity cost - you can get d-men like York later in the draft because d-men are harder to project. the only d-men worth drafting are the sure thing studs who have adequate size, + skating and + skill like Byram. Otherwise, d-men that are solid come from all rounds and are signed as undrafted guys all the time. Top 6 scoring forwards come form the top half of the 1st round of the draft - especially in drafts deep on forward like this one. You don't get shots at Caufield, Krebs, Boldy, Newhook later in the draft - you get guys with glaring deficiencies like Brink (small and skating -) that are extreme long shots.
York is a safe pick, but I think you are underselling him. It's hard to find his skill level and creativity later in the draft. His production is off the charts. He's produced at every international competition, even as an underager. Those are usually pretty good predictors moving forward.

I'm as guilty of falling in love with upside as anyone, but I think guys with "high floors" tend to get underrated as the draft process moves along. Sometimes guys with well rounded skill sets just add value to every area of the game and exceed projections.
 

deadhead

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Conversely, players with high ceilings get overrated, it's like a lottery ticket, you dream of the next superstar, but usually end up with the next "miss."
 
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bobbythebrain

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I'm ok with the pick. York is a good player. Parlaying it into Brink was genius also...however

Passing on Caufield is a head scratcher. We are not in the same position as LA or Edm who need to stock their system. We have organizational depth.

Taking a chance(if you can even call it that) on the best scoring player since Stamkos still makes no sense to me

I sure know Chi isnt pissed about taking a flier on Debrincat. 40 goals and 76 points
 

deadhead

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Chicago used a late 2nd pick on Debrincat, the opportunity cost was much smaller.
DeBrincat also has a E +/- of -1.2, -2.3 his first two seasons.
And how sustainable is a 17.2% S% over the long haul, even top shooters don't score at that rate:
Ovechkin is 12.6% for his career, season high of 15.1%.

It wasn't like the Flyers were the only team to pass on Caufield.
Caufield will be in the NHL well before Brink, but Brink has more eventual upside (could fill out enough to play a two way game).

Problem for the Flyers if you add Caufield, you pretty much have to trade TK, b/c I doubt AV wants two undersized defensive liabilities at RW along with Voracek and JVR.

And goal scoring is not going to be a problem going forward, we just added Hayes, we have Frost, Farabee, Ratcliffee, et al, and it's not like Patrick, Lindblom and TK have maxed out their potential.
 

SolidSnakeUS

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I'm ok with the pick. York is a good player. Parlaying it into Brink was genius also...however

Passing on Caufield is a head scratcher. We are not in the same position as LA or Edm who need to stock their system. We have organizational depth.

Taking a chance(if you can even call it that) on the best scoring player since Stamkos still makes no sense to me

I sure know Chi isnt pissed about taking a flier on Debrincat. 40 goals and 76 points

While Caufield feels like DeBrincat 2.0, Brink, if he solves his skating, could be right in with that same moniker. Brink has that kind of ability.

With that in mind and hindsight being 20/20, York + Brink is a damn good combo. I could possibly see York, while not having the shot as Ghost, could be a better overall version of Ghost. By the time York is in the NHL, Ghost will be 29/30 and could of been possibly traded by then.
 

deadhead

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Of course, Ghost will never be the player he could have been before his injury.
 

LegionOfDoom91

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I never thought they would take Caufield anyway. So it’s not really that big of a deal to me. Passing up on Boldy was more of a shocker imo.

But in the end it all worked out. I’ll take York+Brink over Boldy even if I think he’s the best of the bunch.
 
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deadhead

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:laugh:

2017-2018 erased from existence. Damn. That's too bad.

2017-18 was a great performance, but one York could match because Ghost did it more on instinct and playmaking skill, not raw talent.
As a rookie, he was special, a really quick and fast waterbug that no one could catch.
But his hip/groin injury took away some of that burst and lateral agility.
In the 2017-18 playoffs, Ghost was exposed as talented but not special, he simply isn't in the same class as a healthy EK.
 

FLYguy3911

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I never thought they would take Caufield anyway. So it’s not really that big of a deal to me. Passing up on Boldy was more of a shocker imo.

But in the end it all worked out. I’ll take York+Brink over Boldy even if I think he’s the best of the bunch.
I thought Caufield was awesome, but the distribution of his points were so wonky, it did give me pause. He only had 5 primary assists in the USHL this year! FIVE! On that team! That was 125th per game for players with 10 or more games, in all situations. I'm usually skeptical of a stat line when I see 2x as many goals as assists. Looking at who they drafted, it's not hard to imagine this was a red flag for them.

York - 4th overall; 1st for defensemen (5th at 5v5 which is just absurd for a defenseman, that was a higher rate than Hughes)
Brink - 13th overall
Brodzinski - 28th overall
Attard - 47th overall - 6th for defensemen

Sedyuk - 30th overall in the Q

Millman is the outlier but that may be usage related and he seems to be the one flier they took this year (skater).

Now you can't just dismiss his goal scoring prowess and feel for soft spots in coverage, but playing with all of that elite talent that could get him the puck, factoring in possible unsustainable shooting percentages not translating to upper levels, you could talk yourself into thinking he's not as sure of a bet as other do.

If you trade up to take Brink, I think we can rule out size bias.
 

MasksAreForSlaves

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I had not seen any tape of York prior to today. I think the decision to take him over Caufield and or Boldy is justified. York's skating and puck handling are very reminiscent of Brian Leetch who I saw a lot of during his career. He looks like a extremely safe / hi floor pick. Also looks like a lock to be a pp qb of the future. I've been quite critical of Fletch to this point, but he's redeemed himself to me with this pick in particular
 
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FlyTimmo

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2017-18 was a great performance, but one York could match because Ghost did it more on instinct and playmaking skill, not raw talent.
As a rookie, he was special, a really quick and fast waterbug that no one could catch.
But his hip/groin injury took away some of that burst and lateral agility.
In the 2017-18 playoffs, Ghost was exposed as talented but not special, he simply isn't in the same class as a healthy EK.

Playmaking skill is not raw talent?
 

Jettany

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Feb 21, 2018
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I had not seen any tape of York prior to today. I think the decision to take him over Caufield and or Boldy is justified. York's skating and puck handling are very reminiscent of Brian Leetch who I saw a lot of during his career. He looks like a extremely safe / hi floor pick. Also looks like a lock to be a pp qb of the future. I've been quite critical of Fletch to this point, but he's redeemed himself to me with this pick in particular
Its really amazing how his skating style and instincts remind me of leetch. Been texting all my ranger friends exactly that.
 

pit

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Think of it like, would you rather:

Cole Caufield + a dman like Jayden Struble/Drew Helleson/Matt Robertson

or

Cam York + Bobby Brink

While there is a gap between Caufield & Brink and Caufield is the better prospect, the gap is not nearly as significant as the gap in caliber of prospect between York and the D that were there to pick from in the 2nd.

If you're going to write this equation, you can't leave out the fact that to get to where Brink was selected cost a third, so you would have to go with any defenseman from 34 down, not 45 (like your examples are), so it's either:

Cole Caulfield + Kaeden Korczak/Antti Tuomisto/Jackson LaCombe/Alex Vlasic

OR

Cole Caufield + Jayden Struble/Drew Helleson/Matt Robertson + a 3rd like Albin Grewe/Nathan Legare/Patrik Puistola/Alex Beaucage

versus

Cam York + Bobby Brink
 
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