Roster Thread (2023-2024 Season)

[Chainshot]

Or Cozens.

It’s so strange that Adam’s said we needed Krebs to backfill Mitts. Casey has been our best center all year and leading all centers in TOI. I believe he lead all forwards in 5v5 TOI as well.

There is a total disconnect between what this staff/FO sees on the ice, what they say they want, and reality.

I've wondered that they have a mentality where they make a choice and do not deviate. There appears to be very slow or no adaptation there. They make a choice and that's it, that's the only thing. Levi, Power, Cozens/Thompson, the JJP-DC-JQ line, certain players NEVER getting a look in certain roles.

And here they are, needing a center. Again. But hey, they are trying to do their own thing with a defense that is forced to make plays like Byslma is still here because the coach won't demand and EXTRACT the forwards to come back as a unit and remain connected (one of their buzzwords that gets used in a bunch of coach-speak elsewhere too). Because that's working so well for so many teams like... umm.... none. There are no successful NHL teams doing this zone-blowing, all-rush nonsense.

f***. I've had too much coffee and want to punch someone in the face about all of this.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

So we are now at the "make trades/get rid of guys just for the sake of doing so" stage because those type of moves always end up working out great.

It does when your magical thinking results in each of those deals being highway robbery

 

[Irie]

Funny, but I don’t actually see what they do as being particularly complex. I see avoidance of basic hockey in the pursuit of simply rushing up the ice for a single shot opportunity. Perhaps we both mean the same thing in that I would like to see them simplify, and go back to basic hockey: You don’t leave the zone until the team has possession, you come all the way back as hard as you can defend, you get in on peoples hands instead of standing and looking at them or reaching for the puck, you knock a man down or pin him along the boards when you have the opportunity, When the play isn’t there, you put the puck below the goal line in the offensive zone and then skate hard to go get it back. I don’t see much of that night after night after night after night.

Maybe it is purely just a single coaching change. But I think for a few of these guys, the cement is no longer wet.

Those are the effort intangibles that a coaching change can fairly easily change in most players (mostly). The concept of making the safe play instead of trying to force something that isn't there is a different category, but still somewhat simple fixes.

Then there is a basic discipline issues. You don't abandon the front of the net to triple team the puck in the corner. You don't break formation and abandon passing lane coverage to chase pucks. In transition, you keep position and maintain spacing and gap control instead of having three forwards dogging the puck carrier, and leaving the weak side wide open for a trailer to take the blue-line uncontested.

Also nothing here that the current players are incapable of doing *if* they learn some discipline.

To play Cup level competitive hockey, yes, this team is going to have to bring in outside help like you are suggesting that bring that extra compete level in the post-season, but a lot of guys that have that extra gear don't regularly engage it during the regular season, so those additions will be less fruitful in getting to the playoffs.

The current team is very talented, and I still stand by the position that this team, as it is currently built, is a shoe-in to make the post-season with a competent coaching staff. The coaching we are seeing now is inexcusable.

 

[Tatanka]

I've wondered that they have a mentality where they make a choice and do not deviate. There appears to be very slow or no adaptation there. They make a choice and that's it, that's the only thing. Levi, Power, Cozens/Thompson, the JJP-DC-JQ line, certain players NEVER getting a look in certain roles.

And here they are, needing a center. Again. But hey, they are trying to do their own thing with a defense that is forced to make plays like Byslma is still here because the coach won't demand and EXTRACT the forwards to come back as a unit and remain connected (one of their buzzwords that gets used in a bunch of coach-speak elsewhere too). Because that's working so well for so many teams like... umm.... none. There are no successful NHL teams doing this zone-blowing, all-rush nonsense.

f***. I've had too much coffee and want to punch someone in the face about all of this.

Again I will suggest a little bourbon at last in cup 3.

 

[slip]

We need an adult in the room to inform Power that chasing guys behind his net is not the smart move.

 

[Irie]

Between January 1 and March 5 (the day before Mitts was traded), the Sabres 5 on 5 xGA was 2.39/60, good for 11th in the league.

From March 6 to the present, our 5 on 5 xGA has ballooned to 3.08, second last in the league.

One stat alone doesn't tell the whole story of course, but that stat is pretty damning.

It's an 11 game sample with two laughers where the entire team forgot to play hockey in one of the three periods.

I am willing to bet that if you take out the Edmonton game and that Ottawa game, that those numbers are still consistent, in fact, I think they may be slightly better. Hell, if you took out the first ten minutes of that Ottawa game and the third period of that Edmonton game, that stat line would look ok in those games as well.

This narrative is only a thing if the on ice play was consistently worse than it had been before, and in this case, I believe that this team is still consistently inconsistent. Strong effort one night, horse poop showing the next. Been the story of the entire season, and I don't think Mitt's being in or out of the lineup has much of a significant change in it at all.

 

[Mattilaus]

It's an 11 game sample with two laughers where the entire team forgot to play hockey in one of the three periods.

I am willing to bet that if you take out the Edmonton game and that Ottawa game, that those numbers are still consistent, in fact, I think they may be slightly better. Hell, if you took out the first ten minutes of that Ottawa game and the third period of that Edmonton game, that stat line would look ok in those games as well.

This narrative is only a thing if the on ice play was consistently worse than it had been before, and in this case, I believe that this team is still consistently inconsistent. Strong effort one night, horse poop showing the next. Been the story of the entire season, and I don't think Mitt's being in or out of the lineup has much of a significant change in it at all.

Their expected goals have been on the losing side for a bunch of games lately. We deserved to lose against Seattle, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Ottawa. We can nitpick small sections of these games but the truth is we deserved to lose all of them.

If we were winning the expected goals battle half the time I would say we are inconsistent, but lately it seems like we deserve to lose more often than we deserve to win. It's really feeling like the team has decided to just coast into the off season.

 

[Irie]

Their expected goals have been on the losing side for a bunch of games lately. We deserved to lose against Seattle, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Ottawa. We can nitpick small sections of these games but the truth is we deserved to lose all of them.

If we were winning the expected goals battle half the time I would say we are inconsistent, but lately it seems like we deserve to lose more often than we deserve to win. It's really feeling like the team has decided to just coast into the off season.

It's a three year trend though, Vancouver, Ottawa, Seattle. These are the same teams that more often than not tend to dominate a Granato coached team.

The current Sabre's system relies on the team out working the opponent's execution. This group of opponents also rely on outworking their opponents, but have better personnel that are more physical for the style of play.

With certain matchups, the system more often than not fails.

Win or lose, this team plays better against some teams consistently and worse against others consistently. It is what makes them so inconsistent.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Actually, them spending to the cap floor two consecutive seasons is one of the big reasons we are where we are today (and 6M under the cap this year with 9M wasted on Girgensons/Jost/Okposo/Stillman)

It's not reasonable to expect a rebuilding team to be capped out, and in reality, it's wise not to be. But, the issue with the Adams rebuild has been them not utilizing Rochester enough and not focusing on improving the team at the NHL level. The 'let the kids play' has been a disaster, even with a developmental coach. Addressing roles as a practicality and fitting kids in roles where they can succeed is the correct path.

Obvious mistakes the last two years:

- Forcing Power into a top 4 role (both last year and this year)
- Defaulting to Levi this year rather than adding a veteran goalie to let him develop
- Gifting Peterka and Quinn top 9 forward time.
- Keeping Benson

Of the four listed, the quinn/peterka thing has been the least harmful, though I'd argue adding a middle six veteran forward and letting Quinn/Peterka fight for one spot would have had dividends last year and this.

The lack of veteran support in the middle six forwards, top 4 defense, and in goal is why we didn't make the playoffs last year and why we collapse under any adversity this season. And you don't add that kind of support all in one offseason, you do it over several seasons. And those players cost real money. And to come to a rebuilding situation, you have to typically over pay them a bit over market. And the Sabres refused to do that, instead opting for the Hinostrozas and Corey Stillmans and bringing back the same voices of a failed era in Girgensons/Okposo.

So when I talk about 'cheapness', I'm not talking about them not signing some superstar or being in on every big name. I'm talking about getting real, effective veterans to fill in roster holes and 'block the kids' to let them earn roster spots and ice time instead of it being gifted.

I see that as just plain bad decision making, and bad management, not cheapness.

 

[toddkaz]

 

[TehDoak]

I see that as just plain bad decision making, and bad management, not cheapness.

it's actually both

The "not blocking the kids" narrative was simply a digestible way of saying "we're not going to spend".

The idea that you should have good veteran support for a young roster isn't a revolutionary concept. The idea that players should get extended time in the minors isn't either. The fact that they went 2 seasons without adding any actual veteran support and utilized the getting LTIR players to avoid the cap floor is telling.

In the end though, this offseason should be a telling one for the financial commitment of the Pegulas. There's really no reason we shouldn't be spending within a few million of the cap. It's clear we need to make big changes to the coaching staff, if not the head coach too. There is a clear path to this team being 8M under the cap next year, if they want to continue to want to be 'economic'. However, it's time to spend in both assets and cash for the now.

 

[Chainshot]

There are two pages of conversation about that tweet from earlier today.

 

[Chainshot]

I'd give a kidney (not mine, but someone's) for them to sign Jaxon Nelson as a UDFA.

 

[Krieger Bot]

It's an 11 game sample with two laughers where the entire team forgot to play hockey in one of the three periods.

I am willing to bet that if you take out the Edmonton game and that Ottawa game, that those numbers are still consistent, in fact, I think they may be slightly better. Hell, if you took out the first ten minutes of that Ottawa game and the third period of that Edmonton game, that stat line would look ok in those games as well.

This narrative is only a thing if the on ice play was consistently worse than it had been before, and in this case, I believe that this team is still consistently inconsistent. Strong effort one night, horse poop showing the next. Been the story of the entire season, and I don't think Mitt's being in or out of the lineup has much of a significant change in it at all.

I get that it's a small sample size, but it's not just a couple games dragging their numbers down. Between January 1 and March 5, their 5 on 5 xGA/60 was below 2.25 42% of the time. And it only exceeded 2.75 38% of the time.

Since they dealt Mitts, their 5 on 5 xGA/60 has been below 2.25 just 18% of the time. And it has exceeded 2.75 45% of the time. That's a significant shift.

Moreover, their 3 worst defensive performances since the New Year have all come since they dealt Mitts. And those have been their worst 3 games by a mile. Each of Ottawa, Edmonton, and Vancouver exceeded 4.5 xGF/60 at 5 on 5. No other team has exceeded 3.3 in 2024.

There's no two ways around it. They've been playing much worse defensive hockey since they dealt Mitts. Is it a small sample size? Sure. Can a few games make the numbers look a lot different? Definitely. But right now, they look like a team that is badly struggling in their own end after swapping a top-6 two-way center for yet another puck rushing defenseman.

 

[Gras]

So do we end the season with any 30 goal scorers this year

 

[Chainshot]

So do we end the season with any 30 goal scorers this year

Tage could get there with how he's going right now. I don't think anyone else has a chance.

 

[Gras]

Tage could get there with how he's going right now. I don't think anyone else has a chance.

JJ is also at 26 and Skinner 24 so the 3 of them are the onlys ones with any real shot.

 

[TehDoak]

I'd give a kidney (not mine, but someone's) for them to sign Jaxon Nelson as a UDFA.

C.mon man, be realistic.

Ain't nobody want one of those high milage florida kidneys.

 

[Chainshot]

JJ is also at 26 and Skinner 24 so the 3 of them are the onlys ones with any real shot.

Tage has been on a heater of late.

C.mon man, be realistic.

Ain't nobody want one of those high milage florida kidneys.

Probably easier to find here though.

 

[SharkInABoloTie]

We need someone like bjugstad. He won't come here tho

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

4th last in the conference and Adams has had how many years? After Botterill had how many years?

Adams is an unmitigated disaster. His plan is the worst, his contracts are the worst, his management style is the worst, and he doesn’t even see the need to change course.

I can only assume Terry is the actual GM making decisions and Adams is just the mouthpiece. Adams makes the phone calls and holds the meetings but Terry must be making the real decisions.

I refuse to believe Adams is this horrible at anything, much less being a GM.

 

[BFLO]

Anyone else terrified of the UPL extension coming this summer? Will Adams do another signature overpay?

I think UPL is good, but like most goalies he's going to have his ups and downs. We should pay him for his average, not for his 30 game peak.

For a comparable. Last year, Gustavsson had a better 24 yr old season than UPL. .931 in 39 games and he only got 3 x $3.75mm

I'd be thrilled if Adams can sign UPL to that same contract. But I dread that it's going to more like 6x$6mm

 

[Mattilaus]

Anyone else terrified of the UPL extension coming this summer? Will Adams do another signature overpay?

I think UPL is good, but like most goalies he's going to have his ups and downs. We should pay him for his average, not for his 30 game peak.

For a comparable. Last year, Gustavsson had a better 24 yr old season than UPL. .931 in 39 games and he only got 3 x $3.75mm

I'd be thrilled if Adams can sign UPL to that same contract. But I dread that it's going to more like 6x$6mm

Them being so googly eyed over Levi will save us here IMO. I don't think they will give him that long of a deal because they want to keep the door open for Levi. He is Adams' guy in the near future.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Anyone else terrified of the UPL extension coming this summer? Will Adams do another signature overpay?

I think UPL is good, but like most goalies he's going to have his ups and downs. We should pay him for his average, not for his 30 game peak.

For a comparable. Last year, Gustavsson had a better 24 yr old season than UPL. .931 in 39 games and he only got 3 x $3.75mm

I'd be thrilled if Adams can sign UPL to that same contract. But I dread that it's going to more like 6x$6mm

I don’t think so. I could see something like an Ullmark deal. 4 years for 5 million

 

[WeDislikeEich]