Speculation: Roster Speculation Part V: Looking to Trade 1sts for Rentals ONLY

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SnuggaRUDE

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Apr 5, 2013
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When do you project Mittelstadt to be a 2C and better than Tierney?

I'm just curious about the view of his timeline by fans.

Wasn't Tierny still in Juniors for his D+2 season? In Mittlestadt's D+2 season he's not far off what Tierney was at D+4, and he wasn't playing 2C for SJS that year either.
 
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GellMann

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Dec 16, 2014
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I'm really hoping for a big growth in Mitts' game for next season, but a big growth can happen and still leave him shy of being a 2C for next year, and a big growth might also not quite happen this offseason. Realistically, looking at his D+1 and D+2 years, his path looks more like that of a Tyson Jost than a Kyle Connor/Brock Boeser/Clayton Keller. So I really expect a good NHL center addition in the next 9 months. A guy you can call a top 6 center without people rolling their eyes. I think it's necessary even if you think the world of Mittelstadt. Because if we aren't about getting better for a playoff run this spring, we absolutely HAVE to be about giving Jack, Sam, Skinner, Risto, Dahlin and co the appropriate tools to get there next season. And the current center landscape of the franchise is far, far short of acceptable with that goal in mind.

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As for average shot distance, I think there's more at play than "getting to the net." We struggle with being available in that space, but just as often the problem is completely over-shooting rebounds and passes and mistakes, driving the net so hard that we miss that stuff. I think the real underlying issue is that every line sans the Eichel line has some crippling combination of no hands (Kyle, Larry/Zemgus, Sobotka, sometimes Sheary), no vision (Kyle, Larry/Zemgus, Tage), no shot (Sobotka etc) and no strength to hold their ground in a position to make plays (Sobotka, Tage, Casey). So they get the puck in the offensive zone, and they try to get to the net, but Kyle's pass hits a shin-pad or rolls off his stick before he even makes it. Tage hits a shin pad or can't quite see the seam to either sit in or pass in, Larry and Zemgus don't have the hands to get tough, off-angle shots on the goalie, and Sobotka can't do anything (I spent a ~15 game stretch specifically watching for Sobotka positive offensive plays that either were shots on goal, or passes to teammates who could shoot, and saw ZERO in that span, including two breakaways he was caught on/missed the net, and countless shots from right in front of or next to the goal that inexplicably dribbled wide, were blocked, or never touched the goalie).

Watch what Matthews and Tavares do to create space in dangerous areas, use positioning to clear a stick lane so they can get shots off, and take shots off with their hands and arms oriented all over the place to make it work. Watch how their wingers can use their legs and vision to open lanes to those guys simultaneously. There is at most 1 guy on our each bottom 3 line that can do one of these things efficiently, but the rest are bad at all of them, so the positive offensive play to dangerous areas is nonexistent for us, and we take a lot of muffin shots from far away instead because Pominville knows better to at least do that than try to hopelessly complete a pass that'll just turn the puck over one way or another.

So as long as we keep trotting out Pominville and Okposo (we will not be serious about winning and scoring while we put both of these guys out there at the same time, and anything higher than Okposo's current role for either guy) and Sobotka and Tage etc. all at once, we will not win because we will not get consistent depth scoring.
 

stokes84

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His post about shift times and shot generation is important too. Buffalo uses very long shift times. This is the biggest problem I have with PH. It's immediately actionable.

Can you post the shift time chart? It seems to me that Eichel-Skinner-Reinhart take a lot of long shifts late in games, which I have no problem with, and that may skew things.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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Can you post the shift time chart? It seems to me that Eichel-Skinner-Reinhart take a lot of long shifts late in games, which I have no problem with, and that may skew things.

I don't have them by shift, but Hockey Reference has their average shift times.
 

stokes84

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I don't have them by shift, but Hockey Reference has their average shift times.

My hunch was that it was average. I think it’s a result of a one line team who regularly shortens the bench when they find themselves down late, which has been a lot. I’ve found myself on the couch grumbling to myself about this a bunch of times.
 

OkimLom

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His post about shift times and shot generation is important too. Buffalo uses very long shift times. This is the biggest problem I have with PH. It's immediately actionable.

How much is that based on how long Phil wants them out there for, and how much is that based on how the play on the ice is dictating how long they are out there for (icings, being hemmed in etc)
 

itwasaforwardpass

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Skinner pretty consistently stays on the ice too long sniffing for turnovers. I can't remember the last time I saw him head to the bench until the other team is moving the puck through the neutral zone into our zone.

Those types of things I assume would've been brought up by the coach unless he's fine with the overly long shifts.
 
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Icicle

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Skinner pretty consistently stays on the ice too long sniffing for turnovers. I can't remember the last time I saw him head to the bench until the other team is moving the puck through the neutral zone into our zone.

Those types of things I assume would've been brought up by the coach unless he's fine with the overly long shifts.

Skinner is most dangerous at the end of shifts though. Whenever he scores without Eichel it’s on some funky turnover mid shift change.
 

HaNotsri

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Dec 29, 2013
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When do you project Mittelstadt to be a 2C and better than Tierney?

I'm just curious about the view of his timeline by fans.
As a gm I would never rely on a single prospect to fill a certain spot on the roster. I’d focus more on the pipeline as a whole that I need to maintain.

That said... My guess is second half of next season to become a good scoring 3C.

If he gained a step or becomes a lot stronger it could be sooner. Right now I see him create openings with his stickhandling that he can’t use because he lacks the acceleration/speed.
 

CatsforReinhart

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As a gm I would never rely on a single prospect to fill a certain spot on the roster. I’d focus more on the pipeline as a whole that I need to maintain.

That said... My guess is second half of next season to become a good scoring 3C.

If he gained a step or becomes a lot stronger it could be sooner. Right now I see him create openings with his stickhandling that he can’t use because he lacks the acceleration/speed.
Mittelstadt wont be doing much as long as his wingers are Pominville, Okposo, Sheary or ERod

He hasn't shown much progress since the beginning of the season which is a concern although a small one. He makes a good play then gives the puck away. His decision making at the moment is not very good but he has all the tools.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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How much is that based on how long Phil wants them out there for, and how much is that based on how the play on the ice is dictating how long they are out there for (icings, being hemmed in etc)

That's pretty inside baseball, but when I watch them play the top line seems to be given the greenlight to push pace in lieu of safe line changes. I gave a detailed breakdown of one such instance in game which culminated in an icing and Buffalo being unable to compete for nearly 5 minutes of a first period. Small decisions like that can be force multipliers (up or down).
 

dasaybz

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Skinner is most dangerous at the end of shifts though. Whenever he scores without Eichel it’s on some funky turnover mid shift change.
I've noticed this as well. At first I was like man, that dude does not come off the ice when he should, but after watching him do it all the time, he's very effective at really pestering the other team into a turnover. Now I'm not worried so much about his long shifts because it appears to be by design.
 

Reddawg

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Is a Point offer sheet a way to get Tampa to trade JT Miller?
Getting Point is a fun idea. Of course, if we had just drafted him at any point between #31 and #74 instead of the deluge of suck that we actually took with our five picks in that range....but I digress.

Super smart on our part to ignore a 91pt WHL player and spend those picks on the hot garbage we actually took. I'm really hopeful we can get our drafting sorted out. It makes me sick every time I think about how we could have easily had Point and Arvidsson and instead we took Lemieux, Cornel, Karabacek, Johansson and Brycen Martin. Not a single one of them projects as anything, and the majority are already gone.
 

CatsforReinhart

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Getting Point is a fun idea. Of course, if we had just drafted him at any point between #31 and #74 instead of the deluge of suck that we actually took with our five picks in that range....but I digress.

Super smart on our part to ignore a 91pt WHL player and spend those picks on the hot garbage we actually took. I'm really hopeful we can get our drafting sorted out. It makes me sick every time I think about how we could have easily had Point and Arvidsson and instead we took Lemieux, Cornel, Karabacek, Johansson and Brycen Martin. Not a single one of them projects as anything, and the majority are already gone.
Even at the time of those players being picked they were a reach. What trash.
 

Moskau

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Jun 30, 2004
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Super smart on our part to ignore a 91pt WHL player and spend those picks on the hot garbage we actually took. I'm really hopeful we can get our drafting sorted out. It makes me sick every time I think about how we could have easily had Point and Arvidsson and instead we took Lemieux, Cornel, Karabacek, Johansson and Brycen Martin. Not a single one of them projects as anything, and the majority are already gone.
If it makes you feel any better the guy largely in charge of making those picks is not only still in the organization he's recently been made an amateur scout again. 3rd times a charm!
 

Team Cozens

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Vegas is going to have an extra Center next year with Cody Glass graduating up I suspect. Same with Philly and Morgan Frost. I wanted a Brassard or Dzingel weeks ago but might be better to be patient at this point. Off season.
 
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debaser66

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I'm not going down this rabbit hole again, but I am hopeful that we're not attributing the (alleged) bad acts of players' fiancees to the player himself. But, sadly, I fear that this organization - particularly its ownership, who has seemingly taken a "Character Over Everything" approach to both of its teams - might do so.
The only one with a real issue that is confirmed was Lehner and it affected his on ice performance.
Everything concerning RoR is just pure speculation also his on ice performance showed nothing to support any claims.
Any way you spin it either they just made a bad trade because they wanted to wake up the team or there were some issues which indicates weak leadership if you cant get one guy in line and make a trade that creates an obvious hole which costs probably much more to fill than the original return.
 

sabremike

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Aug 30, 2010
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Getting Point is a fun idea. Of course, if we had just drafted him at any point between #31 and #74 instead of the deluge of suck that we actually took with our five picks in that range....but I digress.

Super smart on our part to ignore a 91pt WHL player and spend those picks on the hot garbage we actually took. I'm really hopeful we can get our drafting sorted out. It makes me sick every time I think about how we could have easily had Point and Arvidsson and instead we took Lemieux, Cornel, Karabacek, Johansson and Brycen Martin. Not a single one of them projects as anything, and the majority are already gone.
I would in no way be shocked in the least if passing on Bode Wilde for Samuelson end up the exact same way. We never learn.
 

DJN21

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Aug 8, 2011
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If we are bringing up Point and other non-likely scenarios I want to bring up Getzlaf...Mitts to wing for awhile to learn under one of the better captains and centers in the league. Give that line Oloffson too...
 

Jim Bob

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Feb 27, 2002
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If we are bringing up Point and other non-likely scenarios I want to bring up Getzlaf...Mitts to wing for awhile to learn under one of the better captains and centers in the league. Give that line Oloffson too...

I can't see Getz waiving his NMC to go from Anaheim to Buffalo.
 
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