Discussion in 'Edmonton Oilers' started by AddyTheWrath, Dec 14, 2020.
Even if he isn't, we could use the Covid flexibility with Forsberg gone.
We have a deal! I hope Oilers actually do, but being a bettor I need to be realistic. To make sure I make money and not lose.
But I can give you a answer why it is more likely that the Leafs win the division.
Do you follow European football (soccer)? 2015-1016 Leicester won the Premier league. That was a huge, huge surprise. They kept most of the important players. So by your logic they should have been the favourites to win again next year and also favourite in every game because they colledted to most points year earlier. But that's not how it works. 2016-2017 they finished 12th and nobody kept them even close to favourites to win again. Sometimes everything just lines up perfectly and miracles happen. Every outcome has percentage and sometimes even the unlikeliest scenarios happen. Now back to hockey...
Oilers had 83 pts in 71 games (.585 p%)
Leafs had 81 pts in 70 games (.579 p%)
Almost identical. Sligth edge to Oilers.
Toronto played 95 point pace, but that includes a month with Babcock. With Keefe they played 47 games and in those games they had 103 point pace. To me sounds reasonable that they can do better with a whole year with Keefe. Frederik Andersen has been very consistent goalie, but last year he was trash. .909 save% and the backup goaltending was even worse. To me it is pretty reasonable to think that he can be better than last year and now they have Jack Campbell and Aaron Dell as back-ups.
They had a lot better 5on5 numbers than Oilers.
Also I don't think Oilers can have such a good special teams again this year. PP 29.5% (rank 1st and that is insanely high. 2nd had 25.2), PK 84.4 (rank 2nd). Combined they are 113.9. I don't think Oilers will suddenly have trash special teams, but it is due to have some regression.
Of course there are a lot of other variables too, but to me these are obvious ones which are unlikely to happen again. If last year Oilers better goalie had .909 sv% and Leafs had by far the best special teams, these two teams would have been probably 10-20 points apart.
If most of the variables are "normal" Leafs finish higher more often than Oilers, because at the moment they have a better team that plays better at 5on5.
I agree the contract is probably going to be awful. With the flat cap, I think Montreal had a real advantage in having cap space and I dont personally think Bergevin used to his advantage. He threw alot of money away this offseason imo. Whether or not Anderson helps this year, I dunno. For all the reasons you could come up with why Anderson will help, I think you could come with the same number of reasons why it wont help. Will really only know from watching this year.
Its sort of the same thing with the flames. Markstrom and Tanev might help them this year (I'm not convinced of either signing to be honest) but its unlikely that those contracts work out in the years to come.
Most people do not take any context into question. They just see the record and that's it. Small minded people who do not like doing any research.
Yeah I agree. If all those things happen then they might be in the top 3 in the Canadian division.
The thing that I find kinda amusing with the media is how critical they are of the Oilers goaltending. Thats generally what the media thinks is the Oilers biggest downfall is. Koskinen had better numbers than Price, Andersen, Holtby/Demko. Hes pretty much even with Markstrom, though I think theres some analytics out there that Markstrom saved a higher percentage of dangerous shots. If people think Markstrom is a sure bet to repeat his season after signing a huge contract, history will tell you, its probably more unlikely than likely. I think the media is really underselling the Oilers this year. As I said, I think Toronto and Edmonton are in the above tier of the teams. But I dont think less pressure/expectations on the Oilers, is a bad thing.
Some could also argue that the poor stretch was a result of the large number of games against the Canadian teams though. I don't believe it to be so because their record against the other teams in that stretch was also 2-5, but you never know. Can't wait to see what actually happens.
In many cases the record is the best tell if you have a large sample size to work with, my dispute to anyone claiming the record vs. Canadian teams as being indicative of anything is that it is such a small sample size that it is easily skewed by a few circumstances.
I’m in the same boat, they were a .500 team last year and wouldn’t have made the playoffs in a normal season. They added a back-up goalie, a decent defenceman, and traded one of their only high-end forwards for a guy who had one goal last year and suddenly they’re topping all of the “most-improved” lists and close to contending? I don’t get the hype at all
Their first line is sneaky good. Only three top lines had a better expected goals rate together last season (Vegas, Colorado and Tampa Bay). Tatar-Danault-Gallagher that is, nobody is a "big name" but they play like an elite first line. As a whole the forward group is deep. They have Armia, Lehkonen and Byron as their bottom 3 wingers from depth chart that have a spot on opening night and they all are better than Zack Kassian.
Weber and Petry are 1st pair material, but not elite. Biggest question mark is goaltending. Three years in a row Price has been below average starter. Over those three years he’s allowed 42 more goals than expected, a mark that’s ahead of only five other goalies — three of which are no longer in the NHL and the other two being from Minnesota. But he was excellent in "bubble", but those few games are a small sample size.
Last year they were good 5on5 team. Creating a lot more scoring chances than allowing.
About on average team in NHL. Like most in the Canadian division.
There is, as usual, a strong anti Oiler bias in the media. I know I shouldn't let it bug me but it does.
Toronto HATES us because they didn't get McDavid. That will never go away.
Calgary hates us for good reason.
But most the league even before McDavid hates us for either beating up their team in the 80's or getting so much lotto luck.
While I personally don't like the way we have built our team it has gotten better and ironically enough in a model similar to Toronto. There is no reason for the media to be so high on a team like the Canadians and so low on us.
Hell, even our own media hates us. Just look at how much Spector shits on the Oilers, esp McDavid and Draisaitl, this past off season.
I know it seems very minor to some degree, but Struds has really been banging the PK change drum a lot and got me thinking
Sheahan and Khaira were #1 and #4 from a forward standpoint. Klef and Russell were #1 and #4.
With the talk yesterday that Russell might be out and Koekkoek in I wonder how much 4 player personnel change is going to have.
People rip on our media regardless. Heard far too many people talk about how the media is too soft on the team over the years
The only guys that should be ripped on are the guys that ask stupid f***ing questions when given their chance to ask questions
I don't mind fans of opposing teams that are critical of the Oiler's NHL team, they deserve it. I see red when the eastern media craps on the city and people of Edmonton. They have played that card for a long time.
I’ve been saying all offseason this is my biggest area of concern. It’s the one area we aren’t as good on paper.
The one thing that eases my mind a bit is I think Tippett/Holland are very good at identifying players for certain situations.
What about the Oilers after they split up McDrai?
Our biggest area of need is better 5v5 play and I don't believe we are much if any better 5v5. On top of that our special teams, both PK and PP, are drastically different.
I've often thought coaching was a big factor to success at the nhl level. I think that twice as much for the Oilers. On top of that with significant personal changes Tippett has his work cut out. Plus less time and no preseason.
Not to give the players a free pass but I can't remember a season where going into it the coach is the primary reason for success or failure. Imo.
I think we’re easily better 5 on 5 I don’t think that’s even a question. Turris, Kahun, full season of Yam, full season of Ennis and the wild card that is Jesse up front and far and away the biggest offensive threat we’ve had on the blue line since Sheldon Souray 12 years ago in Tyson Barrie.
I can't believe Puljujarvi is back. It just finally dawned on me. I'm really hoping he has a good season. I'd be happy with a .5PPG pace and some quality time on PP2. If there's anyone I would like to see succeed this year, it's him.
Yup, our PK is not as good on paper for sure. It likely won't be as good on the ice either, as we are unlikely to finish 2nd in the league. The players know how much we relied on special teams last year, and how likely it is that we won't be able to do so again this year. They talk non-stop about being better defensively and at 5v5.
What makes you think this year's bottom six won't be better at 5v5 than last year's?
Don't see a single player following him.
To be honest, I actually think the separation of 97 from 29 is a huge factor here as well. It creates a matchup nightmare for opponents. Both 97 and 29 are a year older as well, and seem very aware of what needs to happen for the team to take that next step. I expect better defensive awareness, and maybe less points because of it, from both of them this year. I still think that McDavid could have a supersonic-type season, but he's just so good that I think he might be able to increase his defense AND offence in the same season, but if I had to guess which one made the improvement, it would be defense.
Together they are/were magic in offense, scoring 3.76 goals per 60. Thats elite, but somehow they allow 3.91 goals againts per 60. When Yamamoto broke-out and 93-29-56 became line Draisaitl's expected-goals-against rate dropped from 3.24 per 60 to 2.49 and his goals-against rate was nearly cut in half from 3.95 per 60 to 2.19. So it definetely helped Draisaitl. The trio outscored teams by a two-to-one margin and led the Oilers in expected-goals percentage.
McDavid was left with nobody to play and his numbers didn't really get better.
So there definetely is room for improvement now that Kahun should be very useful top6 player. Kahun-29-56 probably can't quite replicate the success what 93-29-56 offered but having someone to play with McDavid is needed.
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