Roster Moves & Training Camp Discussion

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Delicious Pancakes

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Oh, how have I waited for this. NHL is back. I have read Dom Luszczyszyn's previews for every team and I have to say that those are best in the business. They are behind a paywall but really enjoy their work, would pay the fee just for those previews.

He has Oilers 4th in the Division barely below Calgary and Montreal. 65% of time Oilers make the playoffs. To me sounds reasonable. Projected record 29-21-7. Around 64 points.

11% finishing 1st in div
17% finishing 2nd
18% finishing 3rd
19% finishing 4th
17% finishing 5th
14% finishing 6th
4% finishing 7th

That shows how tigth the division is. Toronto is clear favourite and Ottawa should be the last one.

Issues regarding Oilers were 5on5 play which they were below average last year. They need to be better 5on5 this year, because it will be extremely hard to replicate the special team success from last year. Especially the penalty kill.

McDavid and Draisaitl need to play more complete game. That would go a long way for the team. Kahun was a quality add, he has scored 2.07 points per 60 at 5on5 over the last two seasons. Thats good for 69th in the league next to wingers like Matthew Tkachuk, William Nylander and Vladimir Tarasenko. If he keeps that rate and gets more minutes, lookout.

Defense is still weak, ranks 27th in the league (without Klefbom) . Lack of puck moving ability is biggest issue. Barrie helps, but that isn't enough. Caleb Jones has some upside to help in that regard and Bear is above average. Bouchard and Broberg need to become quality NHL players!

Forward group ranks 8th, and that is mostly comes from 97, 29, 93, 56 and Kahun. Rest are pretty underwhelming. Heres hoping that Pulju has a breakout season, even as a quality 3rd liner.

Goalies 20th (starter 10th). Koskinen is underrated and Smith is bad. But goalies are voodoo. About every goalie can be top5 or bottom5. Thats just how it goes. If you don't believe just ask Bobrovsky.

Hoping for Puljujärvi and Jones to be last years Yamamoto and Bear.

Oilers were best Canadian team last year in the regular season, just a little ahead of the Leafs. They got bounced in the play-ins just like Toronto did. In the off-season the Oilers lost Klefbom and replaced him with Barrie and improved their forward depth. Toronto replaced Barrie with Brodie, lost Kapanen but otherwise improved their forward depth (with some declining vets). Yet somehow, despite having comparably similar off-seasons the Leafs are clear cut favourites to win the division? Doesn't add up to me.
 

McCombo

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Oilers were best Canadian team last year in the regular season, just a little ahead of the Leafs. They got bounced in the play-ins just like Toronto did. In the off-season the Oilers lost Klefbom and replaced him with Barrie and improved their forward depth. Toronto replaced Barrie with Brodie, lost Kapanen but otherwise improved their forward depth (with some declining vets). Yet somehow, despite having comparably similar off-seasons the Leafs are clear cut favourites to win the division? Doesn't add up to me.
Want to take a bet? With actual money.
 

CupofOil

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And? They were 1-2-1 last year against them

In 2020 (when the team was completely different), they lost to Calgary in a shootout (I recall them outplaying Calgary soundly in that game - the Rittich stick toss game) and destroyed them the next game. They also beat the Leafs pretty badly in 2020 (that ridiculous McDavid goal game) and Montreal. Very different team once they had two scoring lines.

Games from two years ago mean nothing and tbh, the games before the New Year last year don't mean much either because they were a one line team then.
 

bone

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In 2020 (when the team was completely different), they lost to Calgary in a shootout (I recall them outplaying Calgary soundly in that game - the Rittich stick toss game) and destroyed them the next game. They also beat the Leafs pretty badly in 2020 (that ridiculous McDavid goal game) and Montreal. Very different team once they had two scoring lines.

Games from two years ago mean nothing and tbh, the games before the New Year last year don't mean much either because they were a one line team then.

Though I know you're speaking of Calgary specifically I've heard arguments about Edmonton being poor against Canadian teams in general, but I don't think it's a reasonable prediction based on history.

Using your cutoff, Edmonton was better in the games vs. Canadian teams in 2020, but that's a pretty small sample to draw from though. They went 4-2-1 in the seven games you mention outscoring teams 29-23. The two losses were the Kassian freak out where Calgary scored the winning goal on the resulting extended powerplay and the COVID cancellation game. The Shootout loss was the stick flip game.

Also a decent portion of their poor games vs. Canadian teams last year were in the 6 week slump where they went 2-5-1 vs. Canadian teams.

Ultimately, my point is that we can't really predict much about how Edmonton will do against other Canadian teams off past performance because the sample size is traditionally small where only 20% of the games are vs. Canadian teams.
 

FlameChampion

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No idea why so much of the media is so high on the Canadiens. To me, they look terrible. What am I missing here?

I think their winger depth is pretty good to be honest. I think its one of the better out of the canadian teams. Their defense is pretty solid. Even though I think Price is overatted in general, I think Price/Allen is probably one of the better duo's in the Canadian division (most teams only have 1 good goalie). Their biggest question mark though is their centers. Danault is a good C but hes not a #1 guy. Suzuki/Kotkaniemi are super young and they played well in the play-ins. But if they struggle, its likely going to be a tough year. I think it just depends on how they do. I think they are the biggest wildcard team in the division.
 
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tabs

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Though I know you're speaking of Calgary specifically I've heard arguments about Edmonton being poor against Canadian teams in general, but I don't think it's a reasonable prediction based on history.

Using your cutoff, Edmonton was better in the games vs. Canadian teams in 2020, but that's a pretty small sample to draw from though. They went 4-2-1 in the seven games you mention outscoring teams 29-23. The two losses were the Kassian freak out where Calgary scored the winning goal on the resulting extended powerplay and the COVID cancellation game. The Shootout loss was the stick flip game.

Also a decent portion of their poor games vs. Canadian teams last year were in the 6 week slump where they went 2-5-1 vs. Canadian teams.

Ultimately, my point is that we can't really predict much about how Edmonton will do against other Canadian teams off past performance because the sample size is traditionally small where only 20% of the games are vs. Canadian teams.
It’s funny because I was making this exact point to a friend of mine yesterday. Hard to put a lot of weight on our record against Canadian teams last year when half of them fell in a 6 week stretch of 4-10-1 hockey with a one line team and bad goaltending.
 

MuzzaFuzza

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No idea why so much of the media is so high on the Canadiens. To me, they look terrible. What am I missing here?

People think that Kotkaniemi and Suzuki are both legit top 6 centers because of a decent run in the play-ins. Only explanation I can see.
 
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MessierII

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I think their winger depth is pretty good to be honest. I think its one of the better out of the canadian teams. Their defense is pretty solid. Even though I think Price is overatted in general, I think Price/Allen is probably one of the better duo's in the Canadian division (most teams only have 1 good goalie). Their biggest question mark though is their centers. Danault is a good C but hes not a #1 guy. Suzuki/Kotkaniemi are super young and they played well in the play-ins. But if they struggle, its likely going to be a tough year. I think it just depends on how they do. I think they are the biggest wildcard team in the division.
Their depth up front is solid but they have 0 high end talent. Left defense still sucks. Good goalies but they need way too much to go right for them.
 

MuzzaFuzza

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Nedeljokivic (sp?) clears, was really hoping some Canes fans were right when they speculated Forsberg would be returned if Ned cleared but doesn't look that way :( still don't understand why they let Forsberg go only to claim him? Seems scummy unless there is something i'm missing
 
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FlameChampion

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Their depth up front is solid but they have 0 high end talent. Left defense still sucks. Good goalies but they need way too much to go right for them.

You are right. They do lack the high end talent. When they traded for Drouin, they really needed him to turn into a star and its not even close at this point. I know Bergervin has his warts and HF likes him to use him as a whipping boy but I do think that he knows how to build a team. Montreal is generally one of those teams that is plays as a sum of the parts rather than its individual pieces. I think a cohesive - solid team can make the playoffs but time has shown again and again, that its hard to really go anywhere without high end talent.
 

subnet

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Nedeljokivic (sp?) clears, was really hoping some Canes fans were right when they speculated Forsberg would be returned if Ned cleared but doesn't look that way :( still don't understand why they let Forsberg go only to claim him? Seems scummy unless there is something i'm missing

Or they're looking to force a trade for one of them for a later draft pick?
 

MessierII

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You are right. They do lack the high end talent. When they traded for Drouin, they really needed him to turn into a star and its not even close at this point. I know Bergervin has his warts and HF likes him to use him as a whipping boy but I do think that he knows how to build a team. Montreal is generally one of those teams that is plays as a sum of the parts rather than its individual pieces. I think a cohesive - solid team can make the playoffs but time has shown again and again, that its hard to really go anywhere without high end talent.
I think they got better but they were 24th place last year. Did they get THAT much better? I don’t see it.
 
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bone

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No idea why so much of the media is so high on the Canadiens. To me, they look terrible. What am I missing here?

The quality of their roster it could be argued significantly underachieved last year. For some reason all the pundits think that's over now because Pittsburgh laid an egg against them and Montreal prevented a sweep vs. Philly. Somehow they also think the intangeables of Anderson are better than the production of Domi. I completely disagree and think they are experiencing the same hype Edmonton got after a surprising the league in their 2017 playoff appearance. The difference being that Edmonton did that on the heels of a good season. Montreal didn't even have the good season to back it up, just a perceived above average stretch of playoffs games (which was still just .500 like their season record).
 

ChaoticOrange

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The quality of their roster it could be argued significantly underachieved last year. For some reason all the pundits think that's over now because Pittsburgh laid an egg against them and Montreal prevented a sweep vs. Philly. Somehow they also think the intangeables of Anderson are better than the production of Domi. I completely disagree and think they are experiencing the same hype Edmonton got after a surprising the league in their 2017 playoff appearance. The difference being that Edmonton did that on the heels of a good season. Montreal didn't even have the good season to basck it up, just an above average stretch of playoffs games (which were still just .500 like their season record).

Montreal's roster is just plain not that good though. Their left side is worse than ours even without Klefbom, their C's are bottom 5 in the league and they have no difference maker wingers.

They added more of what they already had, and they added an insurance policy if Carey Price falters (again). I think they battle it out with Winnipeg for 4th. Toronto/Edmonton/Calgary top 3.
 
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FlameChampion

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I think they got better but they were 24th place last year. Did they get THAT much better? I don’t see it.

Well forwards:
- Josh Anderson for Domi. Who knows. Anderson didnt play last year. Coach didnt like Domi. No idea if this makes them better or not.
- Signed Toffoli. I think its an improvement.
- I think they are banking on the internal improvement of Suzuki and Kotkaniemi. Might happen or might not happen.

Defense:
- Signed Edmunson. Good depth signing but doesnt move the needle much?
- Romanov coming in. Theres a lot of hype around him but I dont know his game well enough to know what the chances the hype will translate.

Goaltending:
- Brought in Allen. Probably one of the better backup's Price has had but Allens not exactly an amazing goalie.

I do think Montreals a wildcard. I think they are solid pretty much everywhere with centers being a question mark. But as you said they were 24th last year. I am not sure that they are really better than Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver or Calgary, who I think are the four better teams in the division. But I think the division is going to be close so I could see any of Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal or Winnipeg getting third/fourth in the division. I see Toronto/Edmonton in a different tier than the other teams personally.
 
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bone

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Montreal's roster is just plain not that good though. Their left side is worse than ours even without Klefbom, their C's are bottom 5 in the league and they have no difference maker wingers.

They added more of what they already had, and they added an insurance policy if Carey Price falters (again). I think they battle it out with Winnipeg for 4th. Toronto/Edmonton/Calgary top 3.

Oh I certainly agree. Just trying to summarize what I think the pundits are looking at when making these illogical predictions.

FlameChampion summarized the reasons I typically use to argue against it well in the post above.
 

ChaoticOrange

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Oh I certainly agree. Just trying to summarize what I think the pundits are looking at when making these illogical predictions.

FlameChampion summarized the reasons I typically use to argue against it well in the post above.

Gotcha. That Anderson contract could blow up all in their faces too.
 
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MessierII

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Well forwards:
- Josh Anderson for Domi. Who knows. Anderson didnt play last year. Coach didnt like Domi. No idea if this makes them better or not.
- Signed Toffoli. I think its an improvement.
- I think they are banking on the internal improvement of Suzuki and Kotkaniemi. Might happen or might not happen.

Defense:
- Signed Edmunson. Good depth signing but doesnt move the needle much?
- Romanov coming in. Theres a lot of hype around him but I dont know his game well enough to know what the chances the hype will translate.

Goaltending:
- Brought in Allen. Probably one of the better backup's Price has had but Allens not exactly an amazing goalie.

I do think Montreals a wildcard. I think they are solid pretty much everywhere with centers being a question mark. But as you said they were 24th last year. I am not sure that they are really better than Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver or Calgary, who I think are the four better teams in the division. But I think the division is going to be close so I could see any of Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal or Winnipeg getting third/fourth in the division. I see Toronto/Edmonton in a different tier than the other teams.
If Josh Anderson rebounds and scores over 15 goals

If Suzuki takes a step and proves he’s a bonafide top 6 center.

If Kotekniemi does the same

If price plays like a top 5 goalie.

If their PK takes massive strides

If Romanov comes in and anchors a bottom pair as a rookie

If their D stays healthy

If all these things happen they could make it but that’s a lot to go right. It’s not impossible just very unlikely. I’m baffled by how much love they’re getting in the media.
 
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