Line Combos: Roster for 2021/2022 Season

[Mortimer Snerd]

We may have to get creative to fit everyone in. 4 years for Pionk takes him through our current window and right up until the end of the Ehlers deal. It also gets him to UFA at age 30 which would allow him to cash in again. It might be attractive for him and his agent.

I think you are taking EW's numbers as being too precise and reliable.

4 years might be attractive to Pionk, but not to the Jets. I don't think there is a sufficient AAV advantage there to change the Jets position. Beyond 6, I can see a lower AAV more so than less than 6.

I think if we get creative with Pionk that way we go for 1 year at a lower AAV and the promise to make it up next year in the extension.

The problem here is not so much about being able to fit everyone in. First it is more about how to get the most out of Little's LTIR. Second it is about retaining some flexibility to deal with injuries, etc.

The first can be dealt with by submitting an opening day roster that doesn't necessarily have the players we would actually want. It is just about having 20 or more players who use up as much as possible of the LTIR. It can be managed to within a very few k of the full amount. Then next day make out your real roster. There is room there for both Copp and Pionk, if Chevy chooses to keep both. That does not leave much left over.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's not at all uncommon for teams to have players on the team make pitches to players to convince them to sign or waive to come to their organizations. You use whatever tools at your disposal in such a competitive industry.

Yes - absolutely. But getting Schmidt to waive has nothing to do with the price negotiated between Wpg and Van. The price is the price. If he waives, it goes through. If he doesn't it dies. It isn't like we can up the offer to persuade him to waive.

 

[surixon]

I think you are taking EW's numbers as being too precise and reliable.

4 years might be attractive to Pionk, but not to the Jets. I don't think there is a sufficient AAV advantage there to change the Jets position. Beyond 6, I can see a lower AAV more so than less than 6.

I think if we get creative with Pionk that way we go for 1 year at a lower AAV and the promise to make it up next year in the extension.

The problem here is not so much about being able to fit everyone in. First it is more about how to get the most out of Little's LTIR. Second it is about retaining some flexibility to deal with injuries, etc.

The first can be dealt with by submitting an opening day roster that doesn't necessarily have the players we would actually want. It is just about having 20 or more players who use up as much as possible of the LTIR. It can be managed to within a very few k of the full amount. Then next day make out your real roster. There is room there for both Copp and Pionk, if Chevy chooses to keep both. That does not leave much left over.

Yeah i get that. We would want about a half million cushion for injuries I'd imagine.

It's going to be tight no matter what they do.

I personally don't think you need to go super long term with every player on the roster. I still expect that the Jets have big plans for Ville and to me that is him transitioning to the RS next year and then making the team as the third pair RD the year after before slowly working his way up. I think a shorter term deal makes it easier for this to happen.

Anyhow the rest of the pffseason should be interesting. Hopefully we hear when the arb hearing dates are soon.

 

[surixon]

Yes - absolutely. But getting Schmidt to waive has nothing to do with the price negotiated between Wpg and Van. The price is the price. If he waives, it goes through. If he doesn't it dies. It isn't like we can up the offer to persuade him to waive.

Yeah I don't know what all the rest of that convo was about, I was just focusing on the recruitment process and not the value of the transaction.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It makes it so we don't have to do a whole lot of cap rejigging at the end of camp to get compliant and to get the max LTIR benefit.

LTIR cushion can also not be used for rookie bonuses. So this year we have an extra 145k on the cap due to Stanley hitting some bonuses. With a talented player like Perfetti who has 800k in eligible bonuses being forced to defer those amounts to next season will really hurt our cap.

The rejigging is just a little extra work for Chevy and his staff. I don't think Chevy is one to shy away from a little work. It really isn't that much effort required.

The bonus issue is real, but comes nowhere near justifying what it would cost to move that contract. That would be using hand grenades to swat flies.

The actual money out of Chipman's pocket would be more significant if the contract was not insured, which I don't think we know about.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah i get that. We would want about a half million cushion for injuries I'd imagine.

It's going to be tight no matter what they do.

I personally don't think you need to go super long term with every player on the roster. I still expect that the Jets have big plans for Ville and to me that is him transitioning to the RS next year and then making the team as the third pair RD the year after before slowly working his way up. I think a shorter term deal makes it easier for this to happen.

Anyhow the rest of the pffseason should be interesting. Hopefully we hear when the arb hearing dates are soon.

We have Dillon and DeMelo expiring in 3 years, Schmidt in 4. All 3 are tradeable sooner if necessary due to pressure from below. I'm assuming that Pionk is more the RD we want to keep than DeMelo or Schmidt.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah I don't know what all the rest of that convo was about, I was just focusing on the recruitment process and not the value of the transaction.

It is about the feasibility of some (any tiny amount) of retention in the Dillon and Schmidt deals. I've had my say on that issue, so I'm staying out of it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets move PLD to Montreal for Kotkaniemi is in good order. Solves a number of issues for both teams.

What issues does it solve for either team, particularly the Jets?

KK has not shown nearly what PLD has.

 

[surixon]

What issues does it solve for either team, particularly the Jets?

KK has not shown nearly what PLD has.

No Kidding the kid is only 2 years younger then Dubois but hasn't shown himself to be better then a solid 3C.

Dubois's worst year this past season is better the KK best season to date.

Why would we even entertain the idea of down grading for him. Just a dumb trade idea.

Dubois is almost doubling KK's regular season production so far in their careers .64 vs .36 ppg.

PLD is also pretty far ahead in playoff scoring .67 vs .41 ppg.

Why do we want to downgrade to someone who really doesn't score that much better then Lowry (career ppg of 0.32)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With our capspace it feels pretty obvious to me that we sign Copp and Pionk to 1 year deals and Stanley to a 2 year deal.

Then Stastney and Beaulieu's hits comes off the books so there is some money to get PLD done long term, Pionk done long term (or traded if we sign Pulock as a UFA) and Copp takes a peek around UFA and then we either sign him once he sees what is out there or we essentially use him as our own rental this year.

Copp 1 by $4
Pionk 1 by $5
Stanley 2 by $900K

Boom. Cap compliant.

It isn't that simple.

But something like that. We still need to gerrymander our opening day roster to get at the LTIR.

 

[WpgSteve]

Huh?

What is it you don't agree with? Are you actually saying that Morrissey - DeMelo is not better than Morrissey - Poolman? Dillon - Pionk is not better than Forbort - Pionk?

I didn't say that would be = our 2018 D corps. I said it would be better than last year's. You don't agree with that? OK

I read your post to say that Morrissey - Schmidt is not a significant improvement on Morrissey - DeMelo. I disagree with that. The two pairs may be equal defensively, but Morrissey-Schmidt is likely to be much more effective in transitioning to and supporting offence. The offensive improvement could turn out to be quite material when it comes to overwhelming and dominating other teams if the o-zone.

Sorry if you were saying something else and I misunderstood.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I read your post to say that Morrissey - Schmidt is not a significant improvement on Morrissey - DeMelo. I disagree with that. The two pairs may be equal defensively, but Morrissey-Schmidt is likely to be much more effective in transitioning to and supporting offence. The offensive improvement could turn out to be quite material when it comes to overwhelming and dominating other teams if the o-zone.

Sorry if you were saying something else and I misunderstood.

OK, you read me somewhat right. It appears I misunderstood you.

I would argue that we really aren't sure how much improvement there would be there. We know that Morrissey - DeMelo were very effective together. We assume Morrissey - Schmidt will also be a good fit. I don't disagree with that. I'm optimistic that they will be a good fit. But quite different in style. We will get more scoring from Schmidt, but less defense. Will there be any net gain? If so, how large is it likely to be? I think there will likely be some gain, but I doubt it will be much. So the gain comes from moving DeMelo down to the 3rd pair.

Its not like Nate Schmidt is the second coming of Paul Coffey. How much of his offense comes on the PP? Will he get a lot of PP time with the Jets? What does PP scoring have to do with the effectiveness of our 1st pair?

 

[surixon]

OK, you read me somewhat right. It appears I misunderstood you.

I would argue that we really aren't sure how much improvement there would be there. We know that Morrissey - DeMelo were very effective together. We assume Morrissey - Schmidt will also be a good fit. I don't disagree with that. I'm optimistic that they will be a good fit. But quite different in style. We will get more scoring from Schmidt, but less defense. Will there be any net gain? If so, how large is it likely to be? I think there will likely be some gain, but I doubt it will be much. So the gain comes from moving DeMelo down to the 3rd pair.

Its not like Nate Schmidt is the second coming of Paul Coffey. How much of his offense comes on the PP? Will he get a lot of PP time with the Jets? What does PP scoring have to do with the effectiveness of our 1st pair?

Well I'd say each pair is going to be materially better just by being able to have quality players on each pairing.

Let's remember that our first pair aaw Poolman/Beau on it for 70% of the year last season. Schmidt is a big upgrade on that, DeMelo keeps the third pairing strong and Dillion should be a solid upgrade on Forbert.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well I'd say each pair is going to be materially better just by being able to have quality players on each pairing.

Let's remember that our first pair aaw Poolman/Beau on it for 70% of the year last season. Schmidt is a big upgrade on that, DeMelo keeps the third pairing strong and Dillion should be a solid upgrade on Forbert.

Yes, I remember who Morrissey played with. I am only comparing to the 1st pair we could have/should have had prior to getting Schmidt. So the Dillon - Pionk pair improving is not part of the discussion.

How much better will Morrissey - Schmidt be than Morrissey - DeMelo is the question? And in what ways will they be better?

I think we will score more but also give up more. I have no way to put precise numbers on that. Maybe it is up 10 down 8, net 2, for example. Maybe it is some other numbers altogether. But I doubt the net gain there will be much. DeMelo on the 3rd pair though, might be worth a bigger net gain. I think that is the main benefit of getting Schmidt. So, having also acquired Dillon, yes all 3 pairs are better.

And then there is the Moe factor. If we hadn't got Schmidt, would he have played DeMelo on the 3rd pair anyway? Seems crazy to even suggest, but he did it last year.

 

[surixon]

Yes, I remember who Morrissey played with. I am only comparing to the 1st pair we could have/should have had prior to getting Schmidt. So the Dillon - Pionk pair improving is not part of the discussion.

How much better will Morrissey - Schmidt be than Morrissey - DeMelo is the question? And in what ways will they be better?

I think we will score more but also give up more. I have no way to put precise numbers on that. Maybe it is up 10 down 8, net 2, for example. Maybe it is some other numbers altogether. But I doubt the net gain there will be much. DeMelo on the 3rd pair though, might be worth a bigger net gain. I think that is the main benefit of getting Schmidt. So, having also acquired Dillon, yes all 3 pairs are better.

And then there is the Moe factor. If we hadn't got Schmidt, would he have played DeMelo on the 3rd pair anyway? Seems crazy to even suggest, but he did it last year.

I got where you were going with it. Given last year's usage and Moe's offseason comments it's clear he doesn't like using DeMelo up thr lineup for whatever reason so I'm operating under the assumption that Moe wants Dylan on the third pairing hence Schmidt being miles better then what Maurice has predominantly elected to use with JoMo.

As for as hoe much they give up, I'm going against the grain and say they don't give up more as the pairing should spend less time in its end.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I got where you were going with it. Given last year's usage and Moe's offseason comments it's clear he doesn't like using DeMelo up thr lineup for whatever reason so I'm operating under the assumption that Moe wants Dylan on the third pairing hence Schmidt being miles better then what Maurice has predominantly elected to use with JoMo.

As for as hoe much they give up, I'm going against the grain and say they don't give up more as the pairing should spend less time in its end.

Hope you're right.

As for Moe? He did put Morrissey and DeMelo together for the PO. Surely by now he must have noticed that it works.

 

[JetsUK]

Yes, I remember who Morrissey played with. I am only comparing to the 1st pair we could have/should have had prior to getting Schmidt. So the Dillon - Pionk pair improving is not part of the discussion.

How much better will Morrissey - Schmidt be than Morrissey - DeMelo is the question? And in what ways will they be better?

I think we will score more but also give up more. I have no way to put precise numbers on that. Maybe it is up 10 down 8, net 2, for example. Maybe it is some other numbers altogether. But I doubt the net gain there will be much. DeMelo on the 3rd pair though, might be worth a bigger net gain. I think that is the main benefit of getting Schmidt. So, having also acquired Dillon, yes all 3 pairs are better.

And then there is the Moe factor. If we hadn't got Schmidt, would he have played DeMelo on the 3rd pair anyway? Seems crazy to even suggest, but he did it last year.

Yep. I sometimes wonder how much work Chevy feels he has to do in order to preemptively neutralize weird Mo deployment calls he must know are coming. Beaulieu and Poolman playing top-pairing because big n' small? Demolo anchored to 3rd because....? Better go get them Dillon and Schmidt boys...

If Schmidt plays up to his contract, JMo will have passing and coverage options and be able to play a more nuanced D game while Schmidt exits and carries through the NZ or be a bit more ambitious himself knowing that there likely isn't a tire fire waiting to happen behind him. There should be a ton more linkup possibilities for our forwards also, especially with a solid DD/Stanimal 3rd pairing.

It's the trickle-up effect, Every pairing should be stronger, with no screaming weak links, including special teams.

 

[surixon]

Yep. I sometimes wonder how much work Chevy feels he has to do in order to preemptively neutralize weird Mo deployment calls he must know are coming. Beaulieu and Poolman playing top-pairing because big n' small? Demolo anchored to 3rd because....? Better go get them Dillon and Schmidt boys...

If Schmidt plays up to his contract, JMo will have passing and coverage options and be able to play a more nuanced D game while Schmidt exits and carries through the NZ or be a bit more ambitious himself knowing that there likely isn't a tire fire waiting to happen behind him. There should be a ton more linkup possibilities for our forwards also, especially with a solid DD/Stanimal 3rd pairing.

It's the trickle-up effect, Every pairing should be stronger, with no screaming weak links, including special teams.

Well said.

 

[jetsforever]

Yep. I sometimes wonder how much work Chevy feels he has to do in order to preemptively neutralize weird Mo deployment calls he must know are coming. Beaulieu and Poolman playing top-pairing because big n' small? Demolo anchored to 3rd because....? Better go get them Dillon and Schmidt boys...

If Schmidt plays up to his contract, JMo will have passing and coverage options and be able to play a more nuanced D game while Schmidt exits and carries through the NZ or be a bit more ambitious himself knowing that there likely isn't a tire fire waiting to happen behind him. There should be a ton more linkup possibilities for our forwards also, especially with a solid DD/Stanimal 3rd pairing.

It's the trickle-up effect, Every pairing should be stronger, with no screaming weak links, including special teams.

Exactly, Morrissey-Schmidt might not be too much better than Morrissey-DeMelo but it allows for a bottom pairing with DeMelo who is much better than Poolman or Beaulieu or Benn

 

[LowLefty]

Hope you're right.

As for Moe? He did put Morrissey and DeMelo together for the PO. Surely by now he must have noticed that it works.

He's looking for a top pair that can move the puck and better support the offensive side of the game while not being defensively useless.
Our top 6 forward group need exactly that - Demelo is not the answer regardless of how well he played with JoMo when there were very few options (and none that made them an offensive threat).

Our d is looking a lot better and that was the plan - we have a few very dangerous forwards that need this type of support and we've finally found a way to get it done. We'll see how it works out but I'm optimistic.

And Demelo can be the third pairing anchor where he will shine - he's built for exactly that. Paired with Stan, I see them being a really solid option that can play plus minutes so that we are not wearing out our top 4 by mid season.

 

[Bob E]

Wonder why Pionk isn’t listed on Jets roster on their website. Copp isn’t signed nor is Stanley but they are there. Hmmmmm.

 

[gojetsgo]

Wonder why Pionk isn’t listed on Jets roster on their website. Copp isn’t signed nor is Stanley but they are there. Hmmmmm.

means nothing, same thing happened when connor and laine were rfa's looking for new contracts

 

[Bob E]

means nothing, same thing happened when connor and laine were rfa's looking for new contracts

Likely. But someone at TNSE that coordinates web content needs to be on the ball a bit more.

 

[bennylundholm]

I'm trying my darndest (is that a word?) to understand Maurice's strategies. Lineups, combinations, ice time deployments, pk and pp strategy and deployment. I've played, coached and observed for quite some time and find myself bewildered with many of his decisions.
I keep saying that obviously his experience is much greater than mine and there is a method to his madness.
Anyone else thinking this?
And, I am certainly open to and welcoming those who can explain to me his madness, lol.

 

[surixon]

He's looking for a top pair that can move the puck and better support the offensive side of the game while not being defensively useless.
Our top 6 forward group need exactly that - Demelo is not the answer regardless of how well he played with JoMo when there were very few options (and none that made them an offensive threat).

Our d is looking a lot better and that was the plan - we have a few very dangerous forwards that need this type of support and we've finally found a way to get it done. We'll see how it works out but I'm optimistic.

And Demelo can be the third pairing anchor where he will shine - he's built for exactly that. Paired with Stan, I see them being a really solid option that can play plus minutes so that we are not wearing out our top 4 by mid season.

I still remain skeptical that Moe can coach a more modern offensive scheme. Even in 17-18 we were predominantly a 3 man forecheck and cycle team.

Having said that we now have all the pieces and we will see what we can do.