Line Combos: Roster Discussions

Jack722

Registered User
Mar 3, 2018
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I thought the verdict was still out on the corsi after all the games we won where we lost the corsi.

Outshooting your opponent is definitely a good thing. Hellebuyck carried us a lot early season until we got our game together, IMHO.

Anyways, I think Perreault's been playing fairly well this past month, but he's been a bit unlucky to my eyes. I don't think it's wise to use a cold spell - especially an unluckily cold cold spell - to judge a player's future value. It wasn't too long ago that Perreault's lines were the only ones that even worked.
 

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
12,611
9,479
Outshooting your opponent is definitely a good thing. Hellebuyck carried us a lot early season until we got our game together, IMHO.

Anyways, I think Perreault's been playing fairly well this past month, but he's been a bit unlucky to my eyes. I don't think it's wise to use a cold spell - especially an unluckily cold cold spell - to judge a player's future value. It wasn't too long ago that Perreault's lines were the only ones that even worked.
I agree Perrault has been better than the numbers show. I have no problem with a cold spell, I have problems with a really long cold spell. But then it gets into is he just cursed etc etc. After all, the eye test tells me he is still great at forechecking and creating opportunities.
 

Jack722

Registered User
Mar 3, 2018
816
1,378
I'm mostly just hoping some of our young guns can learn to do the really dirty work and round out their games.

Perreault is a pretty great combination of intensity and battle - doing well in corners, board battles, being hard on the puck - along with great hockey IQ, hands, passing, and (albeit recently evaporated) scoring ability. It's hard to find a better guy than that to move up and down the lineup. He does everything well and plays well with everybody.

Connor at least has been doing more dirty work as the season progresses, and I'm really hopeful that Roslovic has some Perreault in him, which would help us out a lot going forward.

Edit: the Ehlers - Little - Laine line is a good example of what you get when you DON'T have line drivers.
 

truck

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
10,992
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www.arcticicehockey.com
Not sure who that might be. Most of the Jets' bottom 6 won't be making that much (Copp, Tanev, Armia, etc.). To be honest, the best option might be Perreault. He'd be tough to replace, but the Jets now have some very good bottom-6 players that can hold their own, and his $4.1M cap hit would give them more room for some other younger players.
It isn't just about cap hits. Asset management comes into play because Petan will be waiver eligible.

It is possible that they keep him and Dano in the press box all year, but if that's not the plan, you've gotta move someone or lose them for nothing.
 
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Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,428
12,680
Winnipeg
I thought the verdict was still out on the corsi after all the games we won where we lost the corsi.
The Jets are 37-8-5 (.790) in games where they were >50% adjCF. That's a 130 point pace over 82 games. President's Trophy.

They are 14-12-5 (.532) in games where they were < 50% adjCF. That's an 87 point pace - would put them 20th in the league right now...out of the playoffs.
 

pucka lucka

Registered User
Apr 7, 2010
5,913
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Ottawa
The Jets are 37-8-5 (.790) in games where they were >50% adjCF. That's a 130 point pace over 82 games. President's Trophy.

They are 14-12-5 (.532) in games where they were < 50% adjCF. That's an 87 point pace - would put them 20th in the league right now...out of the playoffs.

What's our record look like when we score more than the other team?
 
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Saintb

Registered User
May 5, 2016
1,403
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Saintb
I agree Perrault has been better than the numbers show. I have no problem with a cold spell, I have problems with a really long cold spell. But then it gets into is he just cursed etc etc. After all, the eye test tells me he is still great at forechecking and creating opportunities.
Wheeler has had some really long cold spells.
 

Channelcat

Unhinged user
Feb 8, 2013
17,790
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Canada
I agree Perrault has been better than the numbers show. I have no problem with a cold spell, I have problems with a really long cold spell. But then it gets into is he just cursed etc etc. After all, the eye test tells me he is still great at forechecking and creating opportunities.
I'm a huge Perrault fan, but I think his compete level has dropped a bit. He's never been a guy who can rely on his puck skills, he's got to win the battles and I think he has lost just a half step in that Dept. Same with Little. That being said they are still very hard working players.
 
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Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,061
33,043
The Jets are 37-8-5 (.790) in games where they were >50% adjCF. That's a 130 point pace over 82 games. President's Trophy.

They are 14-12-5 (.532) in games where they were < 50% adjCF. That's an 87 point pace - would put them 20th in the league right now...out of the playoffs.
Two issues... One is the correlation between CF with future goal differentials. The other is correlation between CF and future CF.

There is a very strong correlation between CF% in the first 15-20 games and the CF% for the rest of the season. The Jets completely defied those correlations this season since they started low, but transformed into a Corsi monster for the final 3/4 of the season. An interesting question is why the CF% early was not predictive of future shot metrics or future goal differentials. I think there are a few reasonable hypotheses. One is that the current models do not adequately adjust for score effects. The Flames and Hawks are near the top of the NHL in CF% over the past 25 games, likely due in large part to being behind all the time. Earlier in the season the Jets played a remarkable amount of their games with large and early leads. Second, the main problem was the terrible shot metrics of Scheifele and Wheeler's line, which dragged down the entire team. They were deadly in scoring early and so they outscored opponents despite bad shot metrics. They improved defensively as the season progressed, and started shooting more, especially when Connor hit his stride. Also, I think Maurice started using Lowry to dominate other teams top lines after matching Scheifele with them earlier in the season.
 

DRW204

Registered User
Dec 26, 2010
22,117
26,722
How was this team expecting to fit Brassard for next year if they acquired him?
 

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