Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[Thirty One]

100 points, lost to a team with 107 points in 7 games. One game away from likely being the presumptive Stanley Cup favorites. We're a long way away from being good enough to worry about becoming the Leafs.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

The Zaitsev contract was obviously a mistake, and it was a mistake to give Marleau 3 years instead of 2. However, those contracts were already on the books when they gave Tavares 11 mil. They didn't need more scoring, at least not enough to spend 11 mil per year on it. They knew they were going to have to pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander. IMO, they would have been better off shoring up the defense and adding a little more grit, and spending less total cap to do it.

That's not meant to be an argument against Panarin, though. We don't have 3 players looking to get huge contracts within the next year. Fitting Panarin under the cap wouldn't be an issue for us. The contract might be a problem in 4 or 5 years, but probably not before then. Will Panarin still be this good when we are ready to contend? Yes, some players continue to be elite into their 30s. Maybe Panarin is one of those players. What I can say for certain is that we will waste at least 2 years of his prime if we sign him.

People like to say that players like this don't come along often, but that isn't really true. There are always opportunities. The question is whether or not the Rangers will be able to take advantage of them. There are a number of teams facing a cap crunch this summer. We might be surprised by some of the names that become available. Two years ago, no one knew that Panarin would be a UFA in 2019. Seguin, Hall and Seth Jones were all traded before they reached UFA age. Tavares became a UFA. Stamkos flirted with being a UFA (he was able to talk to teams during the pre-July 1st window) before re-signing in Tampa. Hell, this is actually the 3rd time Panarin has been available in the last 4 years. First as an undrafted free agent, second as a trade from Chicago, and now third as a UFA.

It's easy to look at our team now and say we could use a guy like Panarin. But will he be a good fit for the team 2 or 3 years from now? We don't know how our center situation is going to shake out. Zib is locked in as the 1C for now, unless someone passes him, but other than Chytil, who projects to be a top 6 center? Kravtsov and Kakko have both played some center in their careers, but is either a center at the NHL level? Maybe one of Andersson or Howden can eventually center the 2nd line, but neither is likely to be more than 50 point, two-way players. It might be that our wings will be set between Kakko, Kravtsov, Buchnevich and Chytil, and what we really need is a 2C. Paying Panarin 11 mil now would make it a lot harder to fill that center spot later, if it comes to it. Or maybe it's not the center situation, but rather the defense, which needs that money.

There are a lot of unknowns right now. Personally, I would rather be patient, see how our prospects develop and see what other opportunities arise. I think Panarin will sign in Florida anyway, so it's probably a moot point.

Agree with all of this, excellent post to sum it all up.

 

[Kupo]

Come on people. The decision to rebuild was made by the time they decided to trade their 1c for the 7th pick and a prospect without replacing him or bringing in a quality 2/3 line center Don’t try telling me they thought Hayes was gonna step in and take the minutes stepan did and someone else was gonna take Hayes minutes in 17-18 and they were gonna be contenders.
The letter was just a great way of buying Gorton the ability to do whatever he wanted going forward. It wasn’t the official start of a 5-10 year rebuild. The idea that Gorton is doing this job thinking he got 10 years before his boss expects a championship. It’s delusional

Why didn't you see Gorton unload more players if the rebuild started when Stepan was traded? Why did we sign two veteran dmen after the Stepan trade as a rebuilding team?

Notice how we unloaded a plethora of veterans after the letter went out? Why didn't that happen sooner if we were in fact rebuilding?

 

[OrlandK]

Shattenkirk and Smith were both 27/28 year old "veterans" when they signed 4 year contracts. The point was obviously to try to be competitive while rebuilding. And by keeping the term to 4 years they really didn't hurt the rebuild as they expire before the rebuild was likely to get to the next stage - say 5/6 years out, certainly not 10. Yes those contracts didn't work out as hoped but that resulted in getting Kratsov and probably Kaapo, so it kind of worked out in a weird way. All in Gorton's plan seems to be working pretty well. Elite forward and goalie prospects - need to find elite D prospects and we should be all set.

 

[Ola]

Why didn't you see Gorton unload more players if the rebuild started when Stepan was traded? Why did we sign two veteran dmen after the Stepan trade as a rebuilding team?

Notice how we unloaded a plethora of veterans after the letter went out? Why the hell didn't that happen sooner if we were in fact rebuilding?

Where are you getting this 10 year garbage from?

I think Gorton thought those guys would be moveable. That was the first thing I thought when we signed Shatty and Smith, 'puh at least with those contracts they can be traded'. Look at the NTC's, Gorts must have haggled hard over them. 15 teams that become 10 for Smith and 10 teams that becomes 8 for Shatty. 4 years deal.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I actually agree that the rebuild started when they moved Stepan

And that Gorton doesn’t have a century to get this thing moving. I would say another year max before they need to start getting results

 

[Kupo]

I'll ask again. Why didn't we see any other veterans moved when Stepan was traded, or shortly after he was traded?

Trading away 1 player isn't rebuilding. Trading away Nash, Holden, McDonagh, Grabner, and Miller is rebuilding. Avoiding long term veteran contracts so you have spots for your prospects is rebuilding.

Some of you guys don't understand the difference between retooling and rebuilding.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Some of you guys don't understand the difference between retooling and rebuilding.

I feel like we’re nitpicking at this point

 

[Kupo]

I feel like we’re nitpicking at this point

Not sure why it's even important to be honest. What difference does it make in the grand scheme of things when the rebuild technically happened?

 

[OrlandK]

I feel like we’re nitpicking at this point

Agree - it's just nitpicking.

We are in pretty much full rebuild mode. We've moved a number of veterans. We've avoided large free agent long term signings too soon in the process. Signing a couple of relatively modest 4 year contracts that end in one's prime doesn't constitute a retool; just an attempt to put a satisfactory product on ice as the rebuild unfolds. And even if they didn't work out; by keeping them short they did not hinder the rebuild.

 

[Waivers]

The rebuild ambiguously started when we traded Brassard and Stepan, both our 1/2C, less than a year apart, for a young, high ceiling Center and a Top 7 pick. The letter came out when we were absolute dog shit and Kreider was hurt. Gorton went into full swing with the rebuild once he saw that trading Brassard and Stepan wasn’t enough.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Ironically, I would be very interested in trading for Kadri and either Johnsson or Kapanen. That comes close to giving them the money to sign Marner.

Kadri was a 54% CF% player this season with pretty split zone starts. Johnsson hung around 54% with split zone starts too. Acquiring Kadri insulates Howden and Andersson until they are ready for more responsibility. Kadri can slide to LW if/when either is ready for more minutes. Give Johnsson the ball and let him run with it on a line with Zibanejad and Kakko.

I offer Pionk and Tampa's 2nd for the lot.

Trade Kreider for a 1st next year or a 1st between 14-18. Trade Vesey to recoup the 2nd rounder lost in the Toronto deal. Skjei and a defensive prospect not named Lundkvist or Miller for a top 4 minute munching RHD. Resign all of the RFA's and call it an offseason.

Johnsson-Zibanejad-Kakko
Kravstov-Kadri-Buchnevich
Namestnikov-Chytil-Strome
Lemieux-Nieves-Fast
Who Cares

Start Howden and Andersson in the AHL and let them earn their call ups.

Staal-DeAngelo
Hajek-Minute munching RHD
Smith-Shattenkirk
Who Cares

Lundqvist
Georgiev
Shestyorkin

 

[OrlandK]

Johnsson and Kapanen are both very good and RFA's. Toronto can sign them to low bridge deals. Don't see why Toronto would be motivated to trade them, especially for such a meager package.
They probably do have to consider trading Kadri but I would think the market for him would be pretty strong. A good 28 year old 2 way center @ 4.5 for 3 more years. I would think he alone would be worth what they gave to get Muzzin as a rental.
Would be happy with any one of them for Tampa's 2nd and Pionk. Trading Pionk is pretty much addition by subtraction.

 

[Leetch3]

Seems pretty overconfident.

Despite my personal desire to not spend big money this off-season, it's fairly clear the Rangers situation is ambiguous at best.

especially overconfident for a view that is completely wrong and has zero evidence to support it other than a personal desire to not rebuild and spend money

 

[Riche16]

The Zaitsev contract was obviously a mistake, and it was a mistake to give Marleau 3 years instead of 2. However, those contracts were already on the books when they gave Tavares 11 mil. They didn't need more scoring, at least not enough to spend 11 mil per year on it. They knew they were going to have to pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander. IMO, they would have been better off shoring up the defense and adding a little more grit, and spending less total cap to do it.

That's not meant to be an argument against Panarin, though. We don't have 3 players looking to get huge contracts within the next year. Fitting Panarin under the cap wouldn't be an issue for us. The contract might be a problem in 4 or 5 years, but probably not before then. Will Panarin still be this good when we are ready to contend? Yes, some players continue to be elite into their 30s. Maybe Panarin is one of those players. What I can say for certain is that we will waste at least 2 years of his prime if we sign him.

People like to say that players like this don't come along often, but that isn't really true. There are always opportunities. The question is whether or not the Rangers will be able to take advantage of them. There are a number of teams facing a cap crunch this summer. We might be surprised by some of the names that become available. Two years ago, no one knew that Panarin would be a UFA in 2019. Seguin, Hall and Seth Jones were all traded before they reached UFA age. Tavares became a UFA. Stamkos flirted with being a UFA (he was able to talk to teams during the pre-July 1st window) before re-signing in Tampa. Hell, this is actually the 3rd time Panarin has been available in the last 4 years. First as an undrafted free agent, second as a trade from Chicago, and now third as a UFA.

It's easy to look at our team now and say we could use a guy like Panarin. But will he be a good fit for the team 2 or 3 years from now? We don't know how our center situation is going to shake out. Zib is locked in as the 1C for now, unless someone passes him, but other than Chytil, who projects to be a top 6 center? Kravtsov and Kakko have both played some center in their careers, but is either a center at the NHL level? Maybe one of Andersson or Howden can eventually center the 2nd line, but neither is likely to be more than 50 point, two-way players. It might be that our wings will be set between Kakko, Kravtsov, Buchnevich and Chytil, and what we really need is a 2C. Paying Panarin 11 mil now would make it a lot harder to fill that center spot later, if it comes to it. Or maybe it's not the center situation, but rather the defense, which needs that money.

There are a lot of unknowns right now. Personally, I would rather be patient, see how our prospects develop and see what other opportunities arise. I think Panarin will sign in Florida anyway, so it's probably a moot point.

This is a great post.

No one would say Panarin isn’t elite and wouldn’t help. But,

A) We don’t even want help, right NOW. We need to miss again next season and get another shot at a high pick.

B) We have zero clue what we NEED. Of course u can always use more scoring but at the expense of D? Or a center? I’m not even convinced that Zbad is our #1
I’d like to see him be an amazing 2 behind our #1 center.

If this was 2-3 years from now I’d be all for Panarin if we needed an elite scoring winger.

Until we know what we’re making for dinner let’s not go spending 50$ on lobster tails.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Johnsson and Kapanen are both very good and RFA's. Toronto can sign them to low bridge deals. Don't see why Toronto would be motivated to trade them, especially for such a meager package.
They probably do have to consider trading Kadri but I would think the market for him would be pretty strong. A good 28 year old 2 way center @ 4.5 for 3 more years. I would think he alone would be worth what they gave to get Muzzin as a rental.
Would be happy with any one of them for Tampa's 2nd and Pionk. Trading Pionk is pretty much addition by subtraction.

We know that. Don't say that too loudly or else Kyle Dubas and other GM's might hear that.

Toronto needs to clear cap space to sign Marner. Marleau isn't going anywhere. Other GM's know this and will have Dubas over a barrel.

 

[offdacrossbar]

panarin is the player you add to make a run. he isnt the player you add to be competitive

and he isnt going to make a difference for us in fact, he will delay the rebuild and thats not what we need.

if were talking 20-21 season he would be perfect. problem is he will be 30 by then

pass

 

[Beacon]

Aren’t you kinda contradicting yourself? Messier was brought in way before the Rangers knew exactly what they had in Zubov, Kovalev, Amonte and Weight. You actually are making a pretty compelling argument for bringing a vet right now to support the development of the current prospects, making sure they develop properly and simultaneously addressing a hole in the their prospect pool? If not Panarin, at least it’s compelling enough re. Trouba.

The only reason it worked out is that it turned out that by the time we began going after vets, whether we knew it or not, we had 7 future 3+ time All Stars already drafted. But it is also why it worked out only once in 80+ years: only once did our prospects wind up where they had to be before we began getting vets, and even then it was luck (that we wasted in trades).

But at least in 1991, we had Leetch with 88 points in 80 games in the NHL, Weight and Amonte had almost 2 ppg as college sophomores, etc. There was some idea that something special may be happening. Right now, even if everything works out perfectly, who are our 7 All Stars? Does ADA look like Leetch?

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

panarin is the player you add to make a run. he isnt the player you add to be competitive

and he isnt going to make a difference for us in fact, he will delay the rebuild and thats not what we need.

if were talking 20-21 season he would be perfect. problem is he will be 30 by then

pass

Panarin is likely to be more than fine at 30. Look at Zucc and he's 32.

 

[Off Sides]

I think the retool was hedged by predicting a rebuild may be in order.

I think they saw the term left on the Lundqvist contract even at the Brassard trade point, from there they in my opinion were retooling with the Stepan trade, Girardi buyout Shattenkirk and Smith signings.

Yet even with those signings they matched up the ends of those contracts to Lundqvist end year, Staal's too.

I don't think all 4 of those contracts all ending in the same year is a coincidence.

They were set up for a big change that off-season regardless if the retool worked or if it turned into a rebuild quicker than they anticipated, which it did.

 

[OrlandK]

We know that. Don't say that too loudly or else Kyle Dubas and other GM's might hear that.

Toronto needs to clear cap space to sign Marner. Marleau isn't going anywhere. Other GM's know this and will have Dubas over a barrel.

Ha ha - Dubas is considered a bright "out of the box" thinker. I doubt he is unfamiliar with Pionk's advanced stat numbers. What probably confuses Dubas is how Pionk earned the number of minutes he was given. What he doesn't realize is that playing Pionk was our way of tanking.

I think we need an old school GM - if there are any left - to take a shot on Neil's "upside". Keep sending a link of that amazing rush goal by Pionk early in the season to the other GM's, maybe one will be mesmerized and smitten.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

The rebuild definitely did not start when Stepan was traded. We were still going into that season looking to make a run for the cup.

 

[effen]

The only reason it worked out is that it turned out that by the time we began going after vets, whether we knew it or not, we had 7 future 3+ time All Stars already drafted. But it is also why it worked out only once in 80+ years: only once did our prospects all wind up where they had to be before we began getting vets, and even then it was luck (that we wasted in trades).

But at least in 1991, we had Leetch with 88 points in 80 games in the NHL, Weight and Amonte had almost 2 ppg as college sophomores, etc. There was some idea that something special may be happening. Right now, even if everything works out perfectly, who are our 7 All Stars? Does ADA look like Leetch?

Why what worked in 80+ years?

The Rangers pre-1967 were the worst O6 franchise because they had the worst exclusive talent-area (smallish zone in Ontario while Montreal had all of Quebec which is an enormous difference) of the O6, so they had the smallest young talent pool. Not because they "relied on vets" as an organizational theme in 1955. Silly.

 

[Beacon]

Why what worked in 80+ years?

The Rangers pre-1967 were the worst O6 franchise because they had the worst exclusive talent-area (smallish zone in Ontario while Montreal had all of Quebec which is an enormous difference) of the O6, so they had the smallest young talent pool.

Fair point, but just the same, it resulted in not having as good a prospect pool, so really the same problem for a different reason. The point is that you win the Cup by hoarding teenage talent. Whether you fail to get the best young talent because of geographic restrictions or because impatient fans want to acquire UFAs who result in you drafting overrated, but usually marginal prospects at #15 instead of great ones in the top 5, the result is all the same: long term misery.

 

[kovazub94]

The only reason it worked out is that it turned out that by the time we began going after vets, whether we knew it or not, we had 7 future 3+ time All Stars already drafted. But it is also why it worked out only once in 80+ years: only once did our prospects all wind up where they had to be before we began getting vets, and even then it was luck (that we wasted in trades).

But at least in 1991, we had Leetch with 88 points in 80 games in the NHL, Weight and Amonte had almost 2 ppg as college sophomores, etc. There was some idea that something special may be happening. Right now, even if everything works out perfectly, who are our 7 All Stars? Does ADA look like Leetch?

Well, I didn't mention Leetch. I mentioned Zubov, Kovalev, Amonte and Weight all of whom in theory maybe would've busted or become just average if Messier was not brought in.

I mean I get and support your premise of figuring out when to bring-in vets via trades and UFA market to match the timing of our prospects' development curve, but holding on to it too rigidly looking for a perfect match and the team's rebuild could potentially risk to double in length and just as well waste compete window when some of these contracts are still cheap ELC or 2nd contracts. That's why I roll my eyes at assertion that someone like Trouba does not fit the team's timeline as the primary concern.