Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLVIII

[Rangers394]

My take on the Rangers window is that yeah, you could say we have two "hart trophy candidates" but I'm not sure that's really true. ZIbanejad is almost guaranteed to regress based off this season. His SH% was sky high(among players with 500+ minutes TOI, his SH% was the 4th highest), there's no way he comes near a 60 goal pace next season. I don't think he gets Hart Trophy buzz next year like he did this year because of that ridiculous goal scoring stretch he had. Not discrediting Zib's season but IMO Panarin is more likely to replicate what he did in the way of cracking 100+ points than Zib approaching 50+ goals. People can disagree with me but I think Panarin is still easily a tier or two better than him as a player. He just controls play at a different level than Zib.

With that in mind, Zib does only have 2 seasons left on his team friendly contract. What they do in those two seasons is tough to tell, but I feel they might take a stab at contention on the last year of Zib's contract.

Zib is still a great player even if he doesn't replicate this season. I don't think anybody expects him to score 60 or put up 100+ points but 35-40 goals with 70-80 points is definitely realistic for him imo

 

[smoneil]

To be fair, their are multiple conversations going on at once in this thread. Also what can seem like "many people" is only a few vocal people advocating a certain move.

There are/were two threads on the trade board about a Cirelli to NYR trade as well. That's where I've seen a lot of the over-the-top value offers. And again, I'd love a player like Cirelli, but not at that price and not as 2C. I think he could hold his own at 2C, but for me, I want players at each line who would be able--for a limited period of time--to play up a line in case of injury. Moore and Boyle as fourth line centers fit that mold. They could play a dozen games at 3C in case AA or Dubinsky or whoever got injured. I don't see Cirelli handling top line duty for any length of time. I CAN see Chytil developing into that kind of 2C. If we're going to spend prime assets on a 2nd line center, I'd rather see them focus on one that can play up in a pinch. Cirelli's best attribute is his defense, and you can get a defensive center much cheaper than he will come (and we may already have one in Barron).

 

[smoneil]

The gap between him and 23 year old Stepan defensively is bigger than the gap that existed between him and 23 year old Stepan offensively.

This isn't 2002 anymore. Most teams ride 3 scoring lines these days. There is no more standard checking line, 4th lines are usually a hodgepodge of different skills (or in our case, no skills.)

And there is no emptying of the cupboard. Moving a single top prospect and a pick is not selling the farm.

Re: Stepan, I disagree. Stepan was an outstanding defensive center. I think he and Cirelli are comparable in that area. People have been pumping Cirelli's "Selke candidate" tires since last year when scored five SHG. He's not the second coming of Bergeron or anything like that.

As for emptying the cupboard, I've seen people offering 1st and Kravtsov+. I've seen people offering 1st and Lundkvist+. TB fans are asking for Kakko/Laf or bust. I just don't see that kind of value in a defensive specialist.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Re: Stepan, I disagree. Stepan was an outstanding defensive center. I think he and Cirelli are comparable in that area. People have been pumping Cirelli's "Selke candidate" tires since last year when scored five SHG. He's not the second coming of Bergeron or anything like that.

As for emptying the cupboard, I've seen people offering 1st and Kravtsov+. I've seen people offering 1st and Lundkvist+. TB fans are asking for Kakko/Laf or bust. I just don't see that kind of value in a defensive specialist.

TB fans are morons, but Lundkvist+ isn't outlandish.

 

[broadwayblue]

TB fans are morons, but Lundkvist+ isn't outlandish.

I'm not ready to move Lundkvist+ for a guy who might be a defensive #2 center. Lundkvist has only gotten better every year. No need to rush into anything.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm not ready to move Lundkvist+ for a guy who might be a defensive #2 center. Lundkvist has only gotten better every year. No need to rush into anything.

It's not might, thats what he is.

Nils might be a good or very good NHL player one day.

 

[Avery16]

 

[Tawnos]

My reference was mainly about acquiring a player in the hopes that he can play a role above what he's shown thus far. We got Holik on the assumption he could play 1C. He couldn't. He was never that guy, even in his best years in NJ. People want to get Cirelli based on the assumption that he can be the 2C. He's never broken the 20 goal barrier. He's never scored more than 40-something points. Yeah, he's great defensively, but you want more production out of your 2C.

I don't know about that. For one thing, 40-something points is 2C production in the modern NHL. His production this season was definitely in the 2nd line tier... somewhere around 40-45th in points per 60 at even strength among centers with more than 500 minutes played... I only say somewhere in that range because naturalstattrick lists a lot of guys when you filter by center who definitely aren't... like Panarin and Kreider. Did my best to subtract those guys. And he did this while playing 14:41 per game at even strength, which is 2nd line minutes. He was also their top penalty killer.

To me, it sounds like he's already an ideal 2nd line center. It's also only his 2nd year in the league, which majorly distinguishes it from Holik, who was already past 30. Granted the league skewed a little older then, but still. Cirelli is 23.

I'm not saying I disagree that people are putting up too much in return for him... but I agree with others that, if we want to improve the 2C slot, he's a perfect fit.

 

[Heckler81]

Georgiev for Studnicka and a pick? I actually like that idea.

It’s more like Georgiev while us addding for Stud. In fact, Bos wouldn’t even do it if we included Car’s 1st.

 

[smoneil]

I don't know about that. For one thing, 40-something points is 2C production in the modern NHL. His production this season was definitely in the 2nd line tier... somewhere around 40-45th in points per 60 at even strength among centers with more than 500 minutes played I only say somewhere in that range because naturalstattrick lists a lot of guys when you filter by center who definitely aren't... like Panarin and Kreider. Did my best to subtract those guys. And he did this while playing 14:41 per game at even strength, which is 2nd line minutes. He was also their top penalty killer.

To me, it sounds like he's already an ideal 2nd line center. It's also only his 2nd year in the league, which majorly distinguishes it from Holik, who was already past 30. Granted the league skewed a little older then, but still. Cirelli is 23.

I'm not saying I disagree that people are putting up too much in return for him... but I agree with others that, if we want to improve the 2C slot, he's a perfect fit.

He's worth a roll of the dice at a reasonable price (both in trade and in contract). I don't think either is likely. As I mentioned earlier, I also want a player who can play up a line when injury requires. 40-ish points may be in the range of a 2nd line C, but it's in the lower range. The guy we have in there right now put up ~15 points more than that, and we're looking to replace him. Unless it's a steal of a deal, I'd rather give guys like Chytil, Barron, and even Howden more time to develop, and hold on to resources like trade chips and cap space until we know what we REALLY need. A 2nd line C isn't going to change the fortunes of this team in the next 12 months. They aren't likely to go anywhere until they get the left side of the D settled anyway. We have to time to develop the guys we already have. And Cirelli, while a good player, is not a "strike now because a player like this never comes along" kinda guy.

 

[Tawnos]

He's worth a roll of the dice at a reasonable price (both in trade and in contract). I don't think either is likely. As I mentioned earlier, I also want a player who can play up a line when injury requires. 40-ish points may be in the range of a 2nd line C, but it's in the lower range. The guy we have in there right now put up ~15 points more than that, and we're looking to replace him. Unless it's a steal of a deal, I'd rather give guys like Chytil, Barron, and even Howden more time to develop, and hold on to resources like trade chips and cap space until we know what we REALLY need. A 2nd line C isn't going to change the fortunes of this team in the next 12 months. They aren't likely to go anywhere until they get the left side of the D settled anyway. We have to time to develop the guys we already have. And Cirelli, while a good player, is not a "strike now because a player like this never comes along" kinda guy.

People are only looking to replace Strome because they don't think he'll be able to replicate it, plus he's very one dimensional.

That being said, I'm also much more interested in addressing the left side of the D for next year than the center ice position.

To me, there are 4 trade targets: Jonas Brodin, Ryan Murray, Darnell Nurse, and Hampus Lindholm. All 4 guys are are top-4 left D still in their 20s, so shouldn't see a fall off in the next couple of years. All 4 guys have their contracts expire at least a year before Kakko or Lafrenière, so there won't be conflicts with those guy's second contract. In particular, Brodin and Murray wouldn't require protection in the expansion draft. All 4 are on teams that might be looking to make changes.

 

[smoneil]

People are only looking to replace Strome because they don't think he'll be able to replicate it, plus he's very one dimensional.

That being said, I'm also much more interested in addressing the left side of the D for next year than the center ice position.

To me, there are 4 trade targets: Jonas Brodin, Ryan Murray, Darnell Nurse, and Hampus Lindholm. All 4 guys are are top-4 left D still in their 20s, so shouldn't see a fall off in the next couple of years. All 4 guys have their contracts expire at least a year before Kakko or Lafrenière, so there won't be conflicts with those guy's second contract. In particular, Brodin and Murray wouldn't require protection in the expansion draft. All 4 are on teams that might be looking to make changes.

If the price is right, I'm on board with that. I'd also be fine with riding with what we have, clearing Staal's last year, and auditioning guys like Hajek, Rykov, and Miller, seeing if Fox or ADA can play the left side, etc.

 

[Boris Zubov]

TB fans are morons, but Lundkvist+ isn't outlandish.

They may be morons, but in a way you can't blame them for their outrageous demands. They've fleeced us big time on two major deadline deals, so from their POV the Rangers front office seem like a bunch of suckers.

 

[JimmyG89]

It’s more like Georgiev while us addding for Stud. In fact, Bos wouldn’t even do it if we included Car’s 1st.

Why is this even a discussion? Rask and Halak are signed for next season as well. Rask is just leaving for the playoffs. I'm positive the Bruins aren't looking for a goalie that is in the NHL next season.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

The cap isn't the massive issue that it's painted to be. Getting through this next year is going to be tough-ish, but long term we have a pretty clean cap sheet.

We have 3 long term deals on the books right now (Panarin, Kreider, Trouba) and a butt load of space after next year. I know some of that chunk is going to be eaten by guys who get extended this year but there is plenty of room to keep the guys who you want to keep while still having wiggle room to make adds along the way.

The secondary players will come and go for the most part, thats just how it works in this league. But I don't know, I think that when you have guys who are top 4 in the league in scoring at their position and top 3 at ES, those are the guys you try to keep around unless you can get a similar player at a different position where you may be lacking or as a centerpiece for a bigger fish. Those deals are hard to find but if one happens to present itself then sure, I'm all ears.

Forget the Staalweights for a second, is there anyone here who would actually elect to keep Chytil/Buchnevich/Howden/Lindgren over DeAngelo? Because really at the end of the day it's going to come down to 2 of them vs DeAngelo salary wise.

Can you blame them?

We had a proposal from one of our own fans a few pages back which involved moving him PLUS a 1st with 2 expiring UFA's and a prospect as the return.

Things like that make it seem like people want to move him just to move him.

Great post all around, but the bolded especially. At the end of the day the guy was top 5 in scoring at his position...to me the default position should be - let's try to work around keeping that player on the team than vice versa. I understand contracts, I understand Fox/Nils, but as I know everyone on this board knows penciling in prospects to replace proven NHLers always involves uncertainty. I guess I can also understand why people may view his season as streaky / unsustainable and thus selling high makes sense. He did have the 3rd highest S% last year of the top 50 dmen in scoring. For me, the NJD hat trick game made me a believer.

Personally I can support dealing him in a package for a first pairing LD or a young, very good top 6 center. But if it came down to paying Lindgren $3-4M to play next to Fox, or allocating that money to ADA on the "3rd pair" with 1st unit PP min and rolling on to the next ELC/reclamation project next to Fox it's an absolute no brainer.

 

[Avery16]

Why is this even a discussion? Rask and Halak are signed for next season as well. Rask is just leaving for the playoffs. I'm positive the Bruins aren't looking for a goalie that is in the NHL next season.

This was posted earlier:

Bruins are sympathetic, but know it’s time to move on from Tuukka Rask - The Boston Globe

Plus Halak is 35 and no goalie other than Rask or Halak has played a game for Boston in the past two seasons.

 

[Rangers394]

Why would Boston trade a young center like Studnicka for a goalie when they have goalies signed already? Makes no sense

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

They may be morons, but in a way you can't blame them for their outrageous demands. They've fleeced us big time on two major deadline deals, so from their POV the Rangers front office seem like a bunch of suckers.

I dunno that either deal was an absolute fleecing for them. McDonagh/Miller one doesn't look great (though it led to Nils, who some have deemed close to untouchable) but I'll defend that MSL deal. He got us over the hump, they got a few picks late 1sts (we got a 2nd back in that deal, not a wash but its something) and Ryan Callahan, who Tampa couldn't wait to run out of town. If we don't make that deal, the last group is one that topped out with a single ECF appearance and pretty much all of Hank's career would have been seen as one where he was stuck in the dreaded middle.

The optics for the MSL deal look horrible because ZOMG 2 1sts! But we basically traded a much lesser rental player for a star vet who had an additional year left on that contract. It makes 100% sense that the Rangers would be adding in that situation. Making it to the ECF just made it seem worse than it was.

 

[Avery16]

Why would Boston trade a young center like Studnicka for a goalie when they have goalies signed already? Makes no sense

What goalies?

The Boston Globe is reporting that Bruins May move on from Rask.

Halak is 35, is a 36 year old UFA after next season, and hadn’t started a playoff game before last night since 2015.

They have four other goalies under contract:

Maxime Lagace, 27, 17 NHL GP.
Daniel Vladar, 22, no NHL GP, was in the ECHL part of this season.
Kyle Keyser, 21, undrafted, no NHL GP, was in the ECHL part of this season.
Jeremy Swayman, 21, drafted in 2017, hasn’t left college.

No other goalies drafted since 2012.

I think they’re in the market.

 

[Rangers394]

What goalies?

The Boston Herald is reporting that Bruins May move on from Rask.

Halak is 35, is a 36 year old UFA after next season, and hadn’t started a playoff game before last night since 2015.

They have four other goalies under contract:
Maxime Lagace, 27, 17 NHL GP.
Daniel Vladar, 22, no NHL GP, was in the ECHL part of this season.
Kyle Keyser, 21, undrafted, no NHL GP, was in the ECHL part of this season.
Jeremy Swayman, 21, drafted in 2017, hasn’t left college.

No other goalies drafted since 2012.

I think they’re in the market.

I'll believe it when i see it. I don't care what some newspaper says. If they moved Studnicka for Georgiev, i'll be shocked

 

[Fugazy]

Speculation: - Roster Building Thread: Part XLIX