Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIV

[mrmovies779]

would you keep Jesper Fast at 3 years for 3 mill per?

2.25 per would look and feel much better

 

[LokiDog]

Yep. This is it.

It's completely disingenuous and hyperbolic to make the decisions Lafreniere vs a Cup

It’s equally disingenuous to make it Lafreniere vs the 2nd round.

It’s a chance at Lafreniere. If someone told you, you can try as hard as you can, in a 24 person contest, to win 10 million dollars, but you may walk away with nothing or you can give up and we’ll give you 2 million dollars, you’d probably take your guaranteed 2 million.

If someone told you the same thing but said you can give up and you’ll have a 12% chance at 2 million, but may still walk away with nothing, you’d probably compete.

12% is still higher odds, but not high enough that I’d prefer losing. We have a 50/50 chance against the Canes. We were on the rise. We have had their number and I believe we actually had more regulation wins as is. If you get past the Canes you have 1/16 chance. Lafreniere is 1/8 chance. We have no idea how these playoffs will go, who will be hot, rusty, etc. Of course we’re highly unlikely to win it all. We’re also highly unlikely to pick 1st (87.5%). In the middle, there’s playoff experience, which can be viewed as an asset as well. I don’t see a situation where I could say I’d prefer to lose.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It’s equally disingenuous to make it Lafreniere vs the 2nd round.

It’s a chance at Lafreniere. If someone told you, you can try as hard as you can, in a 24 person contest, to win 10 million dollars, but you may walk away with nothing or you can give up and we’ll give you 2 million dollars, you’d probably take your guaranteed 2 million.

If someone told you the same thing but said you can give up and you’ll have a 12% chance at 2 million, but may still walk away with nothing, you’d probably compete.

12% is still higher odds, but not high enough that I’d prefer losing. We have a 50/50 chance against the Canes. We were on the rise. We have had their number and I believe we actually had more regulation wins as is. If you get past the Canes you have 1/16 chance. Lafreniere is 1/8 chance. We have no idea how these playoffs will go, who will be hot, rusty, etc. Of course we’re highly unlikely to win it all. We’re also highly unlikely to pick 1st (87.5%). In the middle, there’s playoff experience, which can be viewed as an asset as well. I don’t see a situation where I could say I’d prefer to lose.

If this was any other year, any other draft, I would say there's no value in losing and getting a pick in the 10-13 range. But this year? I rather have a top-15 pick than to win a qualifying round

 

[LokiDog]

If this was any other year, any other draft, I would say there's no value in losing and getting a pick in the 10-13 range. But this year? I rather have a top-15 pick than to win a qualifying round

If we beat Carolina and Carolina doesn’t win the lottery we still get their pick, no? As well as our own, wherever it falls.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

If we beat Carolina and Carolina doesn’t win the lottery we still get their pick, no? As well as our own, wherever it falls.

No. We get whichever pick is worse. Carolina has two first rounders. They got Toronto's first round pick in the Marleau trade. If we win, and Toronto wins, we automatically get Toronto's first rounder, not Carolina's.

 

[LokiDog]

No. We get whichever pick is worse. Carolina has two first rounders. They got Toronto's first round pick in the Marleau trade. If we win, and Toronto wins, we automatically get Toronto's first rounder, not Carolina's.

Just so, I’d rather package two picks in the late teens to move up than prefer to lose. Deep draft or no, there’s no one outside of the top 5 (generously) who is a sure enough thing that I’d roll over for.

 

[wafflepadsave]

B

The only winger in our organization to score 70+ in the last decade, besides Panarin, was Gaborik.

Not even Buch’s parents have expectations that high.

Bad parenting?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Just so, I’d rather package two picks in the late teens to move up than prefer to lose. Deep draft or no, there’s no one outside of the top 5 (generously) who is a sure enough thing that I’d roll over for.

There is no guarantee a team would be willing to trade down. This is often forgotten. This draft, the talent even in the 10-15 range is great. Nobody is a sure-fire thing, not even Lafreniere.

 

[LokiDog]

There is no guarantee a team would be willing to trade down. This is often forgotten. This draft, the talent even in the 10-15 range is great. Nobody is a sure-fire thing, not even Lafreniere.

Of course there’s no guarantee. But there’s no guarantee in any of it. If your argument is you’d prefer a guaranteed 13th overall pick than being in the playoffs, I’m just going to respectfully disagree. I don’t care how deep a draft is lauded as being; we see it every few years, it’s the deepest draft in recent memory. I’m not going to be unhappy if we lose and we’ll pick where we pick, but there is nothing (that is guaranteed) that would make me prefer losing over trying to win it all.

 

[wafflepadsave]

My mom's maiden name is DiNorcia.

For generations it was pronounced Dee-Nor-Cee-Aah.

As it turns out, that's not technically corrected. Similar to what you posted, the correct pronunciations is actually Dee-Nor-Cha.

Italian?

 

[SA16]

Whether we lose and get pick 13 or win and pick 19 or so we all know Gordie is gonna take the same off the board guy at 13 that he could have gotten later anyway.

 

[bobbop]

Something to consider...

If the Rangers beat Carolina and Toronto loses to Columbus, the Rangers will get a mid first round pick (lower of Carolina & Toronto) but unless they go on a real run, it's very likely their own first would be in the 17-19 range. 13/14 & 18/19 may not be a bad place to be.

 

[True Blue]

You wondering if players will be more willing to sign with their current teams instead of uprooting themselves during a pandemic. These bottom 6 players might be more willing to go 1 year on deals, let the pandemic situate itself and then go into free agency with no worries of where they are going to be playing the following season.

The problem with a player like Fast on the Rangers is not his cap hit. as I believe he would take a very reasonable deal to stay. It is not what he is; he is a great third line player. The issue is that as they try to diversify the line up by adding in certain elements that compliment the skill that they have, it is players like Fast that are probably taking up the space where such a player would play.

I like Fast a lot and think that he has plenty to offer. But as I look at the future of the team and its construction, I am not sure that it makes for a good marriage.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

So throw in McKegg or give Kravtsov a shot w Lemieux out? I bet it’s the vet

Kravtsov hasn't played this season, expect to see the same players we saw all year.

 

[Trxjw]

It's another year that's heavy in forwards at the top of the aggregate rankings. Most public lists only have at most 4 D in their top-15 and a lot of them have Askarov in there as well. I would expect that if the Rangers are picking in the 12/13/14 range that there's a decent chance they could get a guy in their top-10, which is the only list that really matters in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Kravtsov hasn't played this season, expect to see the same players we saw all year.

Yeah and if we see someone new, I expect it to be O'Regan before Kravtsov gets a shot

 

[usekakkorightquinn]

Picks past the top 5 usually come down to your scouts getting it right. Lundkvist IMO will be a star in this league. Taken late first round. Fox 37th overall by the Canes. Kravtsov struggling 9th overall and Lias having mental issues taken 7th. Shesterkin taken in the 4th round and Georgiev not drafted. It's much like people who offer up crap second rounders for a goalie with 2 NHL years in Georgiev when if you did research you would see 89% of the time second round picks don't turn out to be good NHL players.

Eventually I suspect Trouba or TDA might be moved and the team will go with Lundkvist and Fox as their righties. So drafting Schneider I think will be their first pick. I figure they will think that they can trade TDA for a 21 to 22 year old forward in the NHL already showing a lot where as drafting a forward with that pick will be dicey at best. Schneider seems like a safe pick and looking at the impact a player like Lindgren has had here and how similar those 2 guys are, I think this is the move the Rangers make.

 

[Thirty One]

Picks past the top 5 usually come down to your scouts getting it right. Lundkvist IMO will be a star in this league. Taken late first round. Fox 37th overall by the Canes. Kravtsov struggling 9th overall and Lias having mental issues taken 7th. Shesterkin taken in the 4th round and Georgiev not drafted. It's much like people who offer up crap second rounders for a goalie with 2 NHL years in Georgiev when if you did research you would see 89% of the time second round picks don't turn out to be good NHL players.

Eventually I suspect Trouba or TDA might be moved and the team will go with Lundkvist and Fox as their righties. So drafting Schneider I think will be their first pick. I figure they will think that they can trade TDA for a 21 to 22 year old forward in the NHL already showing a lot where as drafting a forward with that pick will be dicey at best. Schneider seems like a safe pick and looking at the impact a player like Lindgren has had here and how similar those 2 guys are, I think this is the move the Rangers make.

The value in a draft pick isn't in the average pick. But each one represents a small chance that you'll hit on one of the picks you listed above (outside of Fox getting picked in the second round by Carolina, which did not happen).

If you trade DeAngelo or Trouba, you will still have one of DeAngelo or Trouba left over.

 

[Fitzy]

When is the last time the Rangers re-signed a UFA age bottom 6 player to a deal longer than two years? Brian Boyle?

We certainly don't seem to re-sign our bottom 6 guys long term when they hit UFA age.

 

[Thirty One]

When is the last time the Rangers signed a UFA age bottom 6 player to a deal longer than two years? Brian Boyle?

I guess it was Tanner Glass, but that doesn't happen often with this franchise.

I have a list for you, but you might want to look away:
Boogaard
Brashear
Rupp
Asham
Rissmiller
Voros

I wonder why they stopped?

 

[Fitzy]

I have a list for you, but you might want to look away:
Boogaard
Brashear
Rupp
Asham
Rissmiller
Voros

I wonder why they stopped?

Glass too, but those were all guys coming to us.

I don't think we've re-signed a bottom 6 player once they hit UFA age, like, ever. Prust, Dorsett, Boyle, Hagelin, all departed.

 

[GAGLine]

Glass too, but those were all guys coming to us.

I don't think we've re-signed a bottom 6 player once they hit UFA age, like, ever. Prust, Dorsett, Boyle, Hagelin, all departed.

In the Sather years, we were always up against the cap, and we couldn't afford to re-sign most of those players. The same may end up happening to Fast this year. I'd like to keep him though. Would he take 10 mil over 4 years?

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

would you keep Jesper Fast at 3 years for 3 mill per?

No.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Trading Trouba or DeAngelo and then using the last high draft pick this team will probably have in the next 5 years minimum on a RD is galaxy brain stuff

 

[Savant]

I think if you can get Fast on a one year deal, you do it. Can’t go multi year, and if he did he would be exposed anyway. Give him a nice one year deal and let him back on market next year with more options.

Probably raises his value if he is with Panarin again, and we know he is a good fit there. Also this way don’t have to rush Kakko into top six if he isn’t ready. Can move Fast down if Kakko is ready.