Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIII

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

And Clark.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Gorton's tenure may be cut short down the line because he's already put too much trust in Gordie.

 

[JimmyG89]

By 7/1/19, I'm hoping these players are gone: Hayes, Zucc, McQuaid, Names, Spooner, Staal, McLeod, and possibly Vesey (this is wishful thinking). I don't see Smith being moved before this date, but possibly before the season.

All of those players are likely to be replaced with younger roster players and maybe a free agent or two (Panarin pls). It's just going to be getting through these 71 games before we see some fruits of the labor. They're going to be rough, but after the last 71 games, there is a chance that there are little to no passengers on the team.

 

[Gluten Free Breadman]

No it definitely seems inconsistent if anything and certain teams getting it doesn't fit the paradigm.

But then there's Pittsburgh in 2005, don't get me started.

I never paid attention to drafts and things back then. Get started for me?

 

[ecemleafs]

Buffalo "Dahlen" despite having the best odds in the NHL of winning that pick?

I like you guys. I respect many of you. But, the wild conspiracy theories when it comes to the lottery are a bit much for me.

Especially when outside sources monitor the lottery and put their reputation on the line

 

[Machinehead]

I never paid attention to drafts and things back then. Get started for me?

I think they gave Pittsburgh Crosby to keep them in Pittsburgh is basically the jist of it.

 

[bobbop]

I would also think it decides Gorton's future.

Spot on.

Gorton does not have a indefinite term to effect a change here. This will not be a 5-6 year rebuild. If it is, it will be finished by someone else.

This is why Panarin is logical. In three years he will be 30. The team damn well better be relevant by then.

 

[bobbop]

I thought Ranger Boy raised a good point on Kreider in the locked thread. I’ve never been a fan of trading him but he is going to be 29 at the end of his contract and moving him by this years deadline should bring a very lucrative return. The market would say he is going to get a minimum of five years at $6.5-7MM. Check the Evander Kane contract. That’s a big swallow and his performance to this point does not justify that contract.

I suspect that part of the strategy of moving guys like Hayes and Zuccarello sooner rather than later might be to clear the decks for a Kreider trade at the deadline.

 

[RGY]

We cannot trade every veteran. We cannot throw these young kids to the wolves in a disasterous losing environment. This right now isnt a losing environment. The team has its holes but it competes and has been in pretty much every game this season. I said it before, emptying the cupboard with no veterans mixed in only makes you the Edmonton’s, Buffalo’s and Arizona’s of the league whom “rebuild” but never go anywhere. And no bringing in veteran projects like those teams have to try and mix up the group doesnt work. Keep some of your homegrown vets who have been a part of this city for awhile. Let Kreider and Zibanejad be the vets as part of the new wave.

 

[Rempe73]

I was on board with the rebuild as well. I, like some of the posters here, didn’t think this team was talented enough to win many games, even though they have played relatively well up until the last 2-3 games.

The problem is morale. In theory, I want the Rangers to lose every game, or least finish bottom 3 in the standings. However, losing takes a toll on the players. It creates a tense atmosphere in the locker room. It demoralizes the vets, who should be examples for the kids. Then they get demoralized as well. With losses piling up, the kids start questioning their abilities. They overthink the game. Basically, it’s not ideal. Long term, I still think losing this season is the way to go, but the team needs to find a balance between losing quite a few games and also keeping players happy. This is Quinn’s job, and it’s not easy, especially for a rookie head coach. If he is able to do this job and develop players along the way, he is a very good coach. So far, I’m not seeing it, but once we really start fading from the playoff picture, I’m sure Quinn will relax.

 

[Edge]

I think there's often an in-between period that we leave out when talking about the proposed path forward.

There's the "rebuild" which is accumulation of prospects, picks, and assets. And then there's the time period when those prospects, picks and assets mature and (hopefully) grow. Finally, there's the window as a top contender that teams shoot for.

Right now we are in the first stage --- the accumulation.

But I'd dare argue that it's the middle phase that will be the one a lot of fans struggle with. That's when you have guys experiencing growing pains, you find out the areas that aren't as strong, and inevitably move some of the pieces you accumulated in the first phase. It can also be the time period where the new car smell starts to wear off with certain guys and there's a bit of teasing going on when it comes to turning the corner.

My hope is that we remain patient during the middle phase. We're not going to go from rebuilding to contenders without having that middle phase. And if we enter into that middle phase too soon, it often comes at the expense of the first phase and the accumulation of depth that we're going to need to turn the corner in the third phase.

I'd also caution that there's a tendency to reach that middle stage and "rush" the process to get to the third stage, or proclaim that the team is further along because they're showing signs off life for the first time in a couple of years.

I'm hesitant to put too specific of a timeline on this process because that usually breads impatience --- especially when people don't think they're being impatient and that their expectation is perfectly reasonable. That's usually when people become particularly aggressive.

I'd say the accumulating part of the process runs through at least the 2019 draft. But I'm not totally sure it ends there. I think 2020 is at least a possibility, though I wouldn't assign any odds to it right now.

So while people are already talking about Panarin or EK or other names, I'm not yet convinced the Rangers go down that route quite this soon. Nor am I am convinced that the players in question want to go down that route as early as 2019. That's not to say it can't or won't happen, I just hate it when we get so far ahead of the challenge at hand that we convince ourselves that we can tell the future.

Frankly, a lot also depends on how this draft plays out and who is moved between now and then.

Let's say the Rangers land Hughes, or even Kakko, that changes the process dramatically. It's a different ballgame than getting Dach, or Cozens, or Byram, or whoever. Suddenly, you have a kid who isn't just going to step into the NHL, he's going to step in and potentially be one of the game's better players within a year or two. In Hughes case, arguably one of the best in pretty short order.

So the next several years could look dramatically different depending on how the next 7 months look.

 

[Off Sides]

I was on board with the rebuild as well. I, like some of the posters here, didn’t think this team was talented enough to win many games, even though they have played relatively well up until the last 2-3 games.

The problem is morale. In theory, I want the Rangers to lose every game, or least finish bottom 3 in the standings. However, losing takes a toll on the players. It creates a tense atmosphere in the locker room. It demoralizes the vets, who should be examples for the kids. Then they get demoralized as well. With losses piling up, the kids start questioning their abilities. They overthink the game. Basically, it’s not ideal. Long term, I still think losing this season is the way to go, but the team needs to find a balance between losing quite a few games and also keeping players happy. This is Quinn’s job, and it’s not easy, especially for a rookie head coach. If he is able to do this job and develop players along the way, he is a very good coach. So far, I’m not seeing it, but once we really start fading from the playoff picture, I’m sure Quinn will relax.

Which is why if it were me the younger prospects who are waiver exempt would all be down and the vets would all be up.

The youth develops in the AHL, build some chemistry and confidence. And if not, time to look into why not?

Maybe the vets play well enough to be sold without coaching having to work the rookies in. Would Hayes or Zucc be more engaged without constantly being reminded their replacements are on the NHL team? They have a next contract to work for, without rookies taking some of their playing time maybe they can feel like playing for that.

I think with the roster they picked they took on too much to try to do all at the same time. Focus on getting the vets they want to sell playing well, focus on the two on the cusp RD 22-23 year olds. Let everything else work itself out until the trade deadline. After the deadline bring up some younger youths and let them show their stuff.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Since the lockout, we've missed the playoffs twice. Last season and 09-10 (where we had 87 pts). We got the 19th pick that year, and drafted Kreider.

You have to go back to pre-lockout to find teams bad enough to even have a shot at the 1st OA. The Crosby draft, the Penguins had 3 of 48 balls, same as us. We also finished 10 pts better than the Pens and Caps the year before (well the year before the lockout) It's just probability. It's not a rigged scam.

 

[Tawnos]

Since the lockout, we've missed the playoffs twice. Last season and 09-10 (where we had 87 pts). We got the 19th pick that year, and drafted Kreider.

You have to go back to pre-lockout to find teams bad enough to even have a shot at the 1st OA. The Crosby draft, the Penguins had 3 of 48 balls, same as us. We also finished 10 pts better than the Pens and Caps the year before (well the year before the lockout) It's just probability. It's not a rigged scam.

The 2010 draft was McIlrath at 10

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Since the lockout, we've missed the playoffs twice. Last season and 09-10 (where we had 87 pts). We got the 19th pick that year, and drafted Kreider.

You have to go back to pre-lockout to find teams bad enough to even have a shot at the 1st OA. The Crosby draft, the Penguins had 3 of 48 balls, same as us. We also finished 10 pts better than the Pens and Caps the year before (well the year before the lockout) It's just probability. It's not a rigged scam.

It was the 10th OA and McIlrath the 09-10 time we missed the playoffs

 

[DutchShamrock]

Buffalo "Dahlen" despite having the best odds in the NHL of winning that pick?

I like you guys. I respect many of you. But, the wild conspiracy theories when it comes to the lottery are a bit much for me.

Look, I don't think it's happening. But people brush off the possibility because Shanahan's leafs or because Buffalo's amazing 18% odds.

We may as well get this stuff out there and dealt with because if we drop 3 spots in the draft it's going to be rampant.

Sorry my phone autocorrected Dahlin. Classy move on your part yo help me out.

 

[East Coast Bias]

The 2010 draft was McIlrath at 10

It was the 10th OA and McIlrath the 09-10 time we missed the playoffs

Thanks. Yeah I had the wrong year for Kreider. The 2010 lottery had no change from the standings - teams picked exactly as they finished (with us at 10th OA)

 

[Mac n Gs]

Since the lockout, we've missed the playoffs twice. Last season and 09-10 (where we had 87 pts). We got the 19th pick that year, and drafted Kreider.

You have to go back to pre-lockout to find teams bad enough to even have a shot at the 1st OA. The Crosby draft, the Penguins had 3 of 48 balls, same as us. We also finished 10 pts better than the Pens and Caps the year before (well the year before the lockout) It's just probability. It's not a rigged scam.

I mean they literally released the video. Ernst & Young isn’t going to put it’s reputation on the line because of some kid going to some bumblef*** small NHL market. It’s a boring, monotonous process that comes down to sheer probability.

Behind the scenes at NHL Draft Lottery

 

[Gardner McKay]

Look, I don't think it's happening. But people brush off the possibility because Shanahan's leafs or because Buffalo's amazing 18% odds.

We may as well get this stuff out there and dealt with because if we drop 3 spots in the draft it's going to be rampant.

Sorry my phone autocorrected Dahlin. Classy move on your part yo help me out.

I didn't even realize you misspelled. It was supposed to say Buffalo "got" Dahlen. I get confused between Rasmus and Jonathan and the spelling of their names.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Gorton's tenure may be cut short down the line because he's already put too much trust in Gordie.

Of course you do.

 

[East Coast Bias]

I mean they literally released the video. Ernst & Young isn’t going to put it’s reputation on the line because of some kid going to some bumble**** small NHL market. It’s a boring, monotonous process that comes down to sheer probability.

Behind the scenes at NHL Draft Lottery

Not to mention the destruction of the NHL's reputation, and the sure to follow Congressional hearings and hand-wringing by politicians. All to get Jack Hughes to Arizona or whatever dumb idea we're stuck on here.

 

[NY Lito]

In this thread:

-People who don’t fully grasp what an actual, proper rebuild is comprised of

-People who are really underrating Jack Hughes

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Especially when outside sources monitor the lottery and put their reputation on the line

I think PWC is involved and despite their f*** up at the Oscars they are a well-respected company. Also, there's a video of the draft lottery available right after it concludes where you can see which balls are drawn etc. There is no conspiracy

 

[Thirty One]

We may as well get this stuff out there and dealt with because if we drop 3 spots in the draft it's going to be rampant.

Even though dropping three spots is the most likely outcome for the top 2 slots and definitely not an improbability for the next few either.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

That would be ill advised if you look at the lottery odds.

How many times have all three teams jumped in outside of the top 3.

I know it happened 2 years ago, I’d bet against it happening again.

 

[Thirty One]

I think PWC is involved and despite their **** up at the Oscars they are a well-respected company. Also, there's a video of the draft lottery available right after it concludes where you can see which balls are drawn etc. There is no conspiracy

I believe it's Ernst & Young.