Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXII: “The Year of the Plague’s” last one...

[GoAwayPanarin]

It’s tough to assume the late end of a contract will be ugly because you never really know for sure if a player is gonna age like Mike/Brad Richards or Martin St Louis

Its almost always the former.

Elite players age better on the whole though. I guess Zibanejad is kind of on the edge of being classified as one in that case though.

 

[Edge]

i think this is the problem i have, i dont see dubois as a number 1 center right now....i especially dont see him as a bona-fide star 1st liner

In fairness, that isn't an unheard of point of view --- and it's not one that alien to me personally.

There's some belief that Dubois is more of a 1A/1B type, with some seeing him as being more of top-end second line center. You do have people who aren't solid on him being a 70 or 80 point center on his own. There are still others who believe he could be the next generation's Ryan O'Reilly in that he's a second line center who peaks as a first line center and can bring value as a first line center on the right team, with the right makeup, at the right time --- more of a star on the top of the tree, rather than a guy who served as the base.

And along that spectrum you will find different beliefs as to what constitutes fair value if you're looking to trade for him.

 

[NYR Viper]

I really really want Howden to be good but this center group.......is worse than what we have now.

It's not a finished product of course. I'm just showing who would be left. Without Howden taking a step, you're left with:

PLD
Strome (for 1 more year)
_____
_____

Which is worse...

 

[Rangers in 7]

In fairness, that isn't an unheard of point of view --- and it's not one that alien to me personally.

There's some belief that Dubois is more of a 1A/1B type, with some seeing him as being more of top-end second line center. You do have people who aren't solid on him being a 70 or 80 point center on his own. There are still others who believe he could be the next generation's Ryan O'Reilly in that he's a second line center who peaks as a first line center and can bring value as a first line center on the right team, with the right makeup, at the right time --- more of a star on the top of the tree, rather than a guy who served as the base.

And along that spectrum you will find different beliefs as to what constitutes fair value if you're looking to trade for him.

him being a 1A/1B is perfectly fine, epsecially with the make up of the team....however i just dont see how to trade works for us right now, obviously it would be great to get him behind zib, but then in 2 years you are looking at finding that #1 center since you probably have to say goodbye to zib, maybe he takes a discount but who knows

 

[Edge]

@Edge with Schneider in the fold do you think the Rangers are more likely to move Lundkvist? (for example in a deal for PLD)

And do you know if the teams thoughts on keeping Tony on the left long term has changed at all?

I think the option of moving Lundkvist is a little higher this year because of both Fox and Schneider being in the system. Not that the Rangers are looking to move Lundkvist by any means, but I don't think there's quite as much of agony over the right deal requiring his inclusion. They love Lundkvist, so if he's getting moved it's because they really want the player they're trading him for.

As for ADA, I don't get the feeling that anything's really changed. I don't think they view ADA's future on the left side, despite giving it a shot right now. I think his probably of moving remains higher than average.

It is strange to think that both ADA and Lundkvist could theoretically moved, but it's entirely possible.

 

[bobbop]

My guess for PP2 (to start) is Chytil, Pavel Buch, Kakk, Laff and Foxy. I think Stromer will be on PP1 to start since he was there last season.

Trouba will be the right point on the second PP. And it goes without saying Kreider will have the net on the first PP.

Sloppy work by whomever.

 

[NYR Viper]

The point @Edge makes about getting PLD at around $7-$8m per season for 7 years after his current 2-year deal is a big deal for this team. Looking out, that's (2) years @ $5m and (7) years @ $7m per season. 9 years of control at an average cap hit of $6.55m per season for a player who projects to be an absolute horse down the middle and someone who can facilitate the puck to the teams high powered wingers. I LOVE the idea of Eichel. But considering assumed cost to acquire and contracts (or projected contracts) I would probably be slightly more interested in PLD.

 

[Edge]

The point @Edge makes about getting PLD at around $7-$8m per season for 7 years after his current 2-year deal is a big deal for this team. Looking out, that's (2) years @ $5m and (7) years @ $7m per season. 9 years of control at an average cap hit of $6.55m per season for a player who projects to be an absolute horse down the middle and someone who can facilitate the puck to the teams high powered wingers. I LOVE the idea of Eichel. But considering assumed cost to acquire and contracts (or projected contracts) I would probably be slightly more interested in PLD.

And let's say that average comes out to $3 million per year --- that's a rental, or that's someone's raise, or some other use.

That's the eternal balancing act.

 

[Savant]

I don’t think Chytil should be an untouchable in a deal for a better center.

 

[LokiDog]

PLD is a great young player who plays a complete game. I don’t think his production will ever exceed Zbad’s last two years, though I do think he can be a 70pt guy if supported with talented wingers in a more offensive system.

His age is great for our team, but moving Zib for him is completely counter intuitive. It leaves us in the same position we are in now with a less potent 1C. PLD’s defensive and physical game is about the same as Zibs. Maybe a bit of potential to be the better defensive player as he develops, but the offense takes a hit, and regardless we’re still a 1 center team with a stop gap Strome and a questionable Chytil. I wouldn’t make that trade. Maybe 1.5 years from now if it seems that Z is pricing himself out of town and will be difficult to re-sign, but right now it’s a lateral swap.

I would move any combination of Buch, Chytil, ADA, Strome, Kravstov, D prospects and picks. Solidifying the 2C and 1/2 punch at center would be a big step. Something resulting in:

Kreider - Z - Kakko
Panarin - PLD - Strome
Laf - Chytil - Gauthier

Miller - Trouba
Lindgren - Fox

would work well for us long term. We have the prospects to fill in 3rd pair as soon as next season and it’s much easier to acquire or sign a middle six winger to round out that group than it is to land a young 1B center.



Now, here all of you will call me crazy and disagree with me, and I get it. Just read my thought to the end before tearing me a new one. No one wants to give up shiny new toys or players with big time potential, but I actually WOULD see how close Kakko gets you to a deal. Say Kakko + Strome + 2nd.

Kreids - Z - Buch - or - Laf - Z - Buch
Bread - PLD - Laf - or - Bread - PLD - Kreids

With Chytil, Gauthier, Kravstov, Barron, Howden, Lemieux, (eventually Berard, Cuylle, Vierling) and any UFA signing or minor acquisition rounding out the bottom six is, in my opinion, stronger than counting on Strome or Chytil as long term 2C options and having loaded wings.

Kakko may soon be an 80 point winger. PLD has already been a 27 goal, 61 point physical 2 way C. He is only 2.5 years older, so it’s not like you’re giving up on a lot of potential for a player who has already peaked. Centers are universally more valuable than wingers. The truth is, if you are a realist the odds are in PLD’s favor to be the better player at the more important position, and the age difference is really barely a factor. If PLD caps out as a 70 point, physical, two-way center (and he’s a very good two-way center) and Kakko tops out as an 80 point winger, I’ll take PLD 10/10 times. Additionally the likelihood of Kakko actually becoming an 80 point player is a toss up. The likelihood of PLD scoring 9 more points than he did as a 21 year old is pretty good.

Jarmo likes his Finns. I personally think we’re a better team long term with a Zib/PLD duo supported by Panarin and Laf than we are with a Zib/Chytil duo supported by Laf, Panarin and Kakko.

I know I’m going to get hate for this one, but if PLD was 25, I’d agree. He’s 22. Kakko is 20 in 35 days. The age difference isn’t enough to warrant consideration, the positional difference favors PLD and the odds that Kakko out produces PLD in a considerable enough way to make up for positional strength and two-way ability is not in Kakko’s favor. It would be a tough trigger to pull, but it would probably set us up for significantly more success.

 

[thethirdhockeyman91]

Dubois is definitely the real deal. His performance against the Leafs convinced me he is going to be a superstar in the Couturier/Bergeron mode . Guy outplayed Matthews and the other big guns on the Leafs

 

[RangersFan1994]

Dubois is definitely the real deal. His performance against the Leafs convinced me he is going to be a superstar in the Couturier/Bergeron mode . Guy outplayed Matthews and the other big guns on the Leafs

i would love to get him to NYR. his grit, size and talent level in a complete player is needed on this team.

 

[RGY]

Lettieri on Waivers for Anaheim.

Also a large list of others. Bracco on there as well.

 

[TheDirtyH]

PLD to me seems a lot more likely to become the Toews of his generation than the Jordan Staal.

 

[LokiDog]

PLD to me seems a lot more likely to become the Toews of his generation than the Jordan Staal.

Staal has a career high of 50 points once. PLD has already hit 61 as a sophomore. 49 in the shortened season last year. Toews was a bit ahead of PLD at this stage in their careers. PLD is a good bit ahead of Staal.

 

[NYR Viper]

If the trade was 9 years of PLD from age 22 --> 31 for Zibanejad from age 29-37, that's a good trade

 

[nyr__1994]

There is zero chance he gets only 7.5M-8M without a full NMC and nowhere near max years unless his next two years are severely worse than his last two years.

In a normal year he is eligible to sign an extension now. Not sure when he will be this year.

The questions for him and his agent will be what teams will be in a position to offer that 7 year deal at $10M plus? And if that team is a perennial basement dweller do you want to spend the next 7 years cashing paychecks and losing.

Just throwing out a possible thought process. Maybe it takes 6 years with a full NMC at 7.5-8 mil a year to keep him in NY. I thing all parties may be interested in at least having that discussion.

 

[pld459666]

Definitely not getting him unless Chytil is in the package to replace the center they are losing.

I'm fine with not getting PLD then.

moving Chytil for PLD is still not addressing the long-term issues at Center that this team has.

It's not a value thing for me. It's more along the lines of positional depth and I'm not interested in giving up assets to have the same type of situation at center. but insteaad of wondering who our long term solution is at 1st line center, we are now searching for the long term solution at 2nd line center.

 

[pld459666]

Chytil would likely be part of the ask from Columbus. Of that I feel fairly confident.

Would the Rangers include him? Unknown at this time.

PLD is going to cost us something we don't want to give up. There's probably no way around it. If it's all players we don't have a hesitation about trading, it probably isn't enough.

On the flip side, when fans like a young player, it can also be easy to pile onto the proposed deals in the thought that the offer isn't enough. That's where you start getting into proposals where we are moving four of five pieces for a guy.

I think just about everyone other han Lafreniere, Kakko, Shesterkin and Fox will be "on the table."

I put that in quotes because of course the Rangers are going to have some guys who they value more than others and who will not be the first players they offer up.

Chytil will probably not be someone the Rangers want to include, but he could be someone they have to include and are willing to.

If that's the case, and it very well could be, then the rest of the package is going to have to take a hit in terms of quality as we plug one hole here with a 1st line center while opening another with moving what we expect to be our 2nd line center AND additional assets.

If Chytil HAS to be part of the package, the remaining untouchable list expands to a large degree.

 

[Trxjw]

I think they have to get good value in any potential deal for Zib --- and that means someone with growth potential. Without an extension place, you're probably getting someone who brings question marks at this time. So there is that to consider. I think the return could also depend on the timing and what they already have in place.

For example, for shits and giggles let's say the Rangers traded for PLD and somehow still had Chytil and he blossomed. They might be more inclined to put their eggs into a basket for a player like Glass, feeling he at least backfills a hole left by Chytil moving up. I'm not saying it has to be Glass, but someone like that --- 22/23, has upside, but hasn't quite taken that next leap.

Now if we start getting into Eichel territory, the cost goes up. So now we really start getting into the talks where keeping Chytil out of the deal becomes incredibly difficult and you're probably looking at a 3-4 player ask, plus a pick, with those players being higher up in the food chain. And that depends on whether the Rangers think that Eichel is as good of a fit or worth the extra cost.

You could very well have a situation where the Rangers feel the 3 pieces they give up for even a potential 70-75 point Dubois is a better deal than giving up 4 or 5 pieces for an 80-90 point Eichel when you factor in the personnel cost and the different in salary. In other words, if Dubois costs them an average of $7 million over the next 8 years, is that a better deal than Eichel costing them $10 million over the remainder of his contract? I don't know the answer to that.

PLD's deal with also depend on whether he actually gets to 80 points before his next deal. He could be trending that way with a pair of 70 point seasons, but it remains to be seen how the next number would look.

The Rangers have many potential paths ahead of them, and they could ultimately decide to pass on all of them. The general feeling outside the organization seems to be that Dubois is going to be at the top of their list based on the perceived fit. But that's an outsider's perspective.

I guess we'll see where the market ends up for contracts after this year. I guess I have a hard time seeing a 70-75 point PLD coming in at what someone like Matt Tkachuk is making on his 2nd contract. So I'm leaning towards PLD making at least $8.5 on his next deal assuming that he hits that point number with the Rangers next season. The acquisition cost certainly factors into it. I like the price for PLD more than what I expect Eichel to cost. If Chytil can be saved in the PLD deal then I'm much more willing to gamble on a Zibanejad trade as well.

There's something to be said about opportunity forcing your decisions but at the same time I'm hopeful the Rangers weren't taken by surprise by PLD's desire to be moved over this summer and are putting all their eggs in that basket.

So in the end, if you moved something like Buch, Lundkvist/Lindgren, and a 1st for PLD, I think that's a heck of at trade for us. If you can follow that up by capitalizing on Zibanejad for a Glass or Krebs and some other pieces, that's a heck of a move. On the flip side, if you have to sacrifice Chytil in the PLD trade, that basically sets the market for Zibanejad as a Chytil replacement or bust and boxes Gorton in a little bit.

Guess this is the reality of having elite talent in your organization. You can't keep everyone and sometimes you just gotta roll the dice and hope it works out the way you see it.

 

[SA16]

Trouba will be the right point on the second PP. And it goes without saying Kreider will have the net on the first PP.

Sloppy work by whomever.

Trouba may or may not be on the PP but he will absolutely not be on the "right point" lol is this the year 2000?

 

[SA16]

In a normal year he is eligible to sign an extension now. Not sure when he will be this year.

The questions for him and his agent will be what teams will be in a position to offer that 7 year deal at $10M plus? And if that team is a perennial basement dweller do you want to spend the next 7 years cashing paychecks and losing.

Just throwing out a possible thought process. Maybe it takes 6 years with a full NMC at 7.5-8 mil a year to keep him in NY. I thing all parties may be interested in at least having that discussion.

It's not going to be 7.5-8. All that's going to happen is the low end/middle tier players get squeezed. People go on and on about the flat cap. Well it's "flat" at the highest value it's ever been. If he performs as he has been the last ten years his contract will be commensurate with the other star centers. He is not going to be getting barely more than Brock Nelson and Kevin Hayes.

 

[kovazub94]

Yeah I mean if I was going to look at this team and try to pinpoint a center to replace Zibanejad for the forseeable future, PLD would absolutely be on the short list. Then when I consider the cost of having to surrender a guy like Chytil, thus opening up a hole on the 3rd line, it gets tougher. Then when I think about having to do all of this within the next 12 months, I start to get worried. Then again, Gorton seems to have ice in his veins while I'm just a dude. I'm sure they've been running scenarios and having conversations to see what moves could be available.

My concerns as well. Gets too complicated and I'm VERY reluctant to deal Chytil away and then look for his replacement. In this situation I'd rather ride it out with Zibanejad, see Chytil progress and then go after UFA Barkov.

 

[Rangers in 7]

My concerns as well. Gets too complicated and I'm VERY reluctant to deal Chytil away and then look for his replacement. In this situation I'd rather ride it out with Zibanejad, see Chytil progress and then go after UFA Barkov.

see now barkov is some0ne im all in on, guy is a complete monster

 

[B17 Apricots]

If, and big IF, these past 2 seasons are a sign of things to come for Zibanejad I have no problem putting him in the upper echelon of NHL centers, he's been that good. And you look at the older, more iconic names from that type of grouping Backstrom, Getzlaf, Bergeron...theres plenty of names to point to, they've all been super productive in their 30s. If he can solidify himself close to that tier these next 2 seasons I have no problem re-signing him at 29 for the right numbers.

As for PLD, it would be a phenomenal add but its too early in this teams development for me to move anything aside for picks, the expendable guys like Buch, Strome, etc. and the B tier prospects. Other teams will beat that. If we were a couple years ahead and we had a better idea what we have in Laf, Kakko, Chytil, Kravtsov, Nils, Jones, etc. I'd be all for it but still too many question marks for me. For the time being I'm more than comfortable seeing how things play out with Strome stopgapping and Chytil playing with some dynamic talent