Speculation: Roster Building Frenzy Part XX

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GoAwayPanarin

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Yeah Hamilton is definitely good for sure, he’s going to be big for the Devils.

I just have a hard time with the stats ppl saying the Devils are going to be a fringe playoff team next year and in the same breath saying the Rangers are going to be worse next year than last year.

It’s the common problem with the advanced stats ppl. So many of these analytics are fantastic tools for analyzing the game and learning more. But they don’t tell the whole story and they’re not absolutes. Some of the stats ppl fall into the trap of weighing them to heavily. It’s like politics, both sides think they’re 100% right but the truth lies in the middle.

Im skeptical of this as well.

He's good, but he isn't bell cow of a defense good. Going from a pretty structured and strong group in Carolina to NJ isn't going to help matters either.

He'll be a big boost on their PP for sure.
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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Kakko is about as fast as Rick Nash. Nothing wrong with his speed at all.

but also you don’t need to be fast to win. Kings were definitely not fast and honestly neither were the Hawks. You don’t need a team of burners you need a team that can forcheck properly and win board battles.

You need much more than just fast skating to be successful in the NHL. Look at Leevi Aaltonen for instance, to name a random draft pick whose main attribute was his skating...
 

Cag29

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About the cap situation next year. So far, we're at $67million. With Shesterkin, that's $73 million. Add the bonus overage and where are we? $75-76?

To me, 22-23 looks even tougher for the cap, meaning keeping only one 1C. If we get Eichel, Zibanejad is gone, in other words.

Just good to know this so proposals can deduct the appropriate cap space for whatever preferred player moving forward.
It would sure be nice if the cap was 95 mil.
 

Levitate

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Im skeptical of this as well.

He's good, but he isn't bell cow of a defense good. Going from a pretty structured and strong group in Carolina to NJ isn't going to help matters either.

He'll be a big boost on their PP for sure.

Hamilton's weakness will always be that he's not dealing with being targeted for physical play.

With the puck on the breakout, in the offensive zone, even defending, he's good, but he's always shied from contact
 

Glen Sathers Cigar

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I'm not sure a lot of the stats stuff is really predictive at this point, at least accurately.

The Rangers being worse I think falls along the lines of subtracting Buchnevich and adding some guys that don't move the needle in these models (Blais, Hunt, Reaves) and assuming that Goodrow will suck if not paired with Coleman etc.

I'm not sure it accurately can take into account a different coach, growth from players like Kakko, Kravtsov, Lafreniere, Miller, even Fox. I'm not sure it can accurately take into account how those "replacement level" players might perform under this specific coach and with specific linemates they'll have with the Rangers.

So, we'll see.
Yeah, just looking at players out vs players in and solely looking at all of these players advanced stats packages is not telling the full story.

We have these young players who are all taking huge strides forward so forecasting their impact at this point isn't going to be accurate. Also not accounting for how the new pieces will be used, let along that they will all be playing for a new coach.

Reducing this to players in vs players out is akin to trying to explain the plot of a book when you only read the table of contents or something like that.
 
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mas0764

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We needed to be tougher to play against regardless of what you think.

Well that is why I said to an extent getting tougher is good. I still think the bigger issue was not having talent black holes.

This team addressed that and added depth this offseason. The roster isn't perfect though and will take additional moves and time. Goodrow, Blais, Hunt and Reaves can play. I like Barron also. Nemeth was also a good addition and an upgrade over Hajek. Nemeth-Lundkvist should be light years better than Hajek-Smith.

They did indeed.

At this point, though, and really even should have been for some time now, the biggest issue is adding youth and skill - though perhaps defensive minded and tough to play against nonetheless - at center.
 

HockeyBasedNYC

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Yeah, just looking at players out vs players in and solely looking at all of these players advanced stats packages is not telling the full story.

We have these young players who are all taking huge strides forward so forecasting their impact at this point isn't going to be accurate. Also not accounting for how the new pieces will be used, let along that they will all be playing for a new coach.

Reducing this to players in vs players out is akin to trying to explain the plot of a book when you only read the table of contents or something like that.

Lafreniere on his own could realistically go from .375 PPG to anywhere between .600 to .850 PPG. That's in and of itself is worth a few wins.

His production rose to .666 PPG over the last 12 games of the season, from .295 in the first 44. I think we are looking at a big jump for him especially since we will find him with more top line and PP time.

Not to mention a full camp, a proper offseason and a half year under his belt already. I really think that affected not only him but all of the rookies last season.

I think Gallant is the perfect coach for both him and Kakko, and possibly Chytil as well.
 
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NYRKing

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Really intrigued by the Reilly Smith rumors. He would be a great fit if we can get him on the cheap. Well rounded two way player that can easily pot 20 goals.
 
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NYRKing

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I don’t think Kravtsov and Kakko are being handed top 6 minutes unless they really earn it. I see Smith coming in to fit somewhere in the top 9 depending on camp.
 

NYRKing

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The stated reasoning for the Buchnevich trade was getting more ice time for Kravtsov and Kakko, so bringing in an older, worse player who would probably cost as much in a trade to take up that ice time would be a choice
Not sure if that move was strictly for this year or long term. Could be true, but if I’m Drury/Gallant, I’m happy to pull the trigger on an expiring deal for a player like Smith
 

Fitzy

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Really intrigued by the Reilly Smith rumors. He would be a great fit if we can get him on the cheap. Well rounded two way player that can easily pot 20 goals.

He's got the correct length contract to fit him in for a year, but the question is what's the ask in a trade.

I wouldn't want to give away Jones or Robertson for 1 year of the guy.
 
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NYRKing

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He's got the correct length contract to fit him in for a year, but the question is what's the ask in a trade.

I wouldn't want to give away Jones or Robertson for 1 year of the guy.
Oh hell no. Pick and a lesser prospect than that.
 
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Levitate

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The stated reasoning for the Buchnevich trade was getting more ice time for Kravtsov and Kakko, so bringing in an older, worse player who would probably cost as much in a trade to take up that ice time would be a choice

Yeah this. I guess he'd be a stop gap but between giving up assets for a 30 year soon to be UFA and that barring trades we have Kakko, Kravtsov, Goodrow/Chytil down the right and Panarin, Lafreniere, Kreider down the left, I don't see the point in bringing in another player unless we just aren't confident at all that Kakko and Kravtsov are top six players in which case we have far more problems
 

Doctyl

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Yeah Hamilton is definitely good for sure, he’s going to be big for the Devils.

I just have a hard time with the stats ppl saying the Devils are going to be a fringe playoff team next year and in the same breath saying the Rangers are going to be worse next year than last year.

It’s the common problem with the advanced stats ppl. So many of these analytics are fantastic tools for analyzing the game and learning more. But they don’t tell the whole story and they’re not absolutes. Some of the stats ppl fall into the trap of weighing them too heavily. It’s like politics, both sides think they’re 100% right but the truth lies in the middle.
Hamilton is good, but aside from that what are stats people saying? I haven’t seen any argument based on statistics for why the devils will be better than the rangers. The most coherent argument I have read has been along the lines of “hurr durr drury lol”
 

Levitate

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Hamilton is good, but aside from that what are stats people saying? I haven’t seen any argument based on statistics for why the devils will be better than the rangers. The most coherent argument I have read has been along the lines of “hurr durr drury lol”

I'm not sure they're saying the Devils will be better, just that they improved more this offseason
 
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jay from jersey

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Do we not have a gaping hole in our top 6 on RW?
Blais is going to get a shot there. Like it or not. He’s got the hands to keep up. They going to see if he’s an upgrade over fast/blackwell while having more of an edge.
I’m guessing they still don’t want Kakko on that line so Blais will likely be there unless Kravtsov steps up and takes the job
 

Levitate

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Blais is going to get a shot there. Like it or not. He’s got the hands to keep up. They going to see if he’s an upgrade over fast/blackwell while having more of an edge.
I’m guessing they still don’t want Kakko on that line so Blais will likely be there unless Kravtsov steps up and takes the job

yeah that too
Rangers have a lot of wingers with a lot of mix of skill

I see them going after someone like Reilly only if something else happens and they move some wingers
And even then...agian the guy is 30 and soon to be UFA, what's the end game with him?
 

Edge

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Lafreniere on his own could realistically go from .375 PPG to anywhere between .600 to .850 PPG. That's in and of itself is worth a few wins.

His production rose to .666 PPG over the last 12 games of the season, from .295 in the first 44. I think we are looking at a big jump for him especially since we will find him with more top line and PP time.

Not to mention a full camp, a proper offseason and a half year under his belt already. I really think that affected not only him but all of the rookies last season.

I think Gallant is the perfect coach for both him and Kakko, and possibly Chytil as well.

When you look at who Gallant had in Florida, and you look at two guys like Lafreniere and Kakko, you have to at least be curious, if not optimistic about that possibility.
 
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