Roster and Fantasy GM Thread: Pre-Draft Silly Season

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canuck89

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May 17, 2014
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Looks like Tampa may be interested in Tanev, too.

Tampa doesn't have a first-round pick this year (it belongs to the Rangers as part of the McDonagh trade). They don't pick until the 2nd round (#59 overall) this year.

We can't acquire Tampa's 1st-round pick or 2nd-round pick in 2019 right now either, because those have been conditionally sent to the Rangers as part of the McDonagh trade (if the Lightning win the Stanley Cup in 2019, Tampa's 1st-round pick goes to New York; otherwise, this will be to a 2nd-round pick in 2019).

We would have to see what Yzerman and Benning would be willing to negotiate with.

Report: The Tampa Bay Lightning have contacted the Vancouver Canucks about trading for Chris Tanev
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
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you just know benning is going to do something stupid this weekend

I think Benning will try extremely hard to get a young defenseman that he feels comfortable with, whether that's Dobson, Bouchard, or Hanifin.

I think this management group recognizes the fact that their biggest needs are on defense. Hence - my belief that if Dobson and Bouchard are both drafted in the Top 6, Benning will make a trade. I get the feeling that Benning is hoping that Zadina falls to number 7 so that he can use that as leverage to trade for a young defenseman *without* having to add (i.e. Zadina straight across for Hanifin).

Based on what I've read and heard, I don't think Benning and friends like Hughes or Boqvist. Tkachuk is also overrated.......and I hope management feels the same way.

If Dobson and Bouchard are drafted, and the Canucks are in a position to draft one of Zadina or Wahlstrom, I think the 7OA will get traded to Carolina for Hanifin.
 

GPNuck

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Nov 25, 2013
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I think Benning will try extremely hard to get a young defenseman that he feels comfortable with, whether that's Dobson, Bouchard, or Hanifin.

I think this management group recognizes the fact that their biggest needs are on defense. Hence - my belief that if Dobson and Bouchard are both drafted in the Top 6, Benning will make a trade. I get the feeling that Benning is hoping that Zadina falls to number 7 so that he can use that as leverage to trade for a young defenseman *without* having to add (i.e. Zadina straight across for Hanifin).

Based on what I've read and heard, I don't think Benning and friends like Hughes or Boqvist. Tkachuk is also overrated.......and I hope management feels the same way.

If Dobson and Bouchard are drafted, and the Canucks are in a position to draft one of Zadina or Wahlstrom, I think the 7OA will get traded to Carolina for Hanifin.


God if Zadina falls to 7 and we don't take him I'll lose my shit...
 
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Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
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God if Zadina falls to 7 and we don't talk him I'll lose my ****...

It's possible that the Canucks will. It's just my impression that Benning is obsessed with getting a young defenseman that meets his criteria. Even though Benning has publicly stated that he'll go with BPA, I think he feels the exact opposite. He doesn't want to tip his hand like Montreal's GM seems to have done.
 

GPNuck

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Nov 25, 2013
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It's possible that the Canucks will. It's just my impression that Benning is obsessed with getting a young defenseman that meets his criteria. Even though Benning has publicly stated that he'll go with BPA, I think he feels the exact opposite. He doesn't want to tip his hand like Montreal's GM seems to have done.

it also kinda goes against what Travis Green said last week about winning a cup with your own draft picks and wanting to have 14 players on the team next year drafted by the Canucks
 

iceburg

Don't ask why
Aug 31, 2003
7,602
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Not the right time to trade him. It doesn't have anything to do with a "trash JB narrative". Tanev is coming off a bad season filled with injury. They can't expect a lot with that having just occurred. Let him play and prove his health, then move him.

Agree they should wait but not too long. Given his history of injuries and the fact that he will be 29 this year means there is probably a 6 to 12 month window starting in early 2019 where his value would be highest (assuming he stays healthy). This fits with your "let him play and prove his health, then move him" strategy.

We paid more than your suggested return for gudbranson ..

A 2nd and a B prospect for a top 30 dman in the league on a good contract is an absolute garbage return.

I don't disagree. But I think it's what should be expected. They have the option not to move him for that return.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
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Montreal, QC
you just know benning is going to do something stupid this weekend

He's going to try.

The nicest thing you can say about having Benning as gm is that he is often unable to execute on his terrible plans.

Imagine if he had managed to pull off that lucic trade a few years ago. We would likely not have Boeser and lucic would probably be signed to an ugly extension. Horrible to think about.
 
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JuniorNelson

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Jan 21, 2010
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Im thinking that where there is smoke,there is usually fire.I can see Benning moving Tanev,then trading the 7th for Hannifin.
Or maybe they have somone in mind come UFA day,,,

I would like Canucks to have dynamic management, too! It would be great if free agents wanted to come here and trade candidates gladly waived.
 
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THE Green Man

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Dec 27, 2013
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I’m deciding in my mind as to whether I’d like this kind of roster:

-something involving Tanev and Liljegren
-7thOA for Hanifin if Dobson and Bouchard are taken and one of Zadina, Tkachuk, or Wahlstrom is available at #7 which gets Carolina excited.

Leipsic-Horvat-Boeser
Goldobin-Gagner-Virtanen
Dahlen-Gaudette-Pettersson
Baertschi-Sutter-Eriksson

Edler-Gudbranson
Hanifin-Liljegren
Hutton-Biega

Markstrom
Demko
That 3rd line would get demolished. Putting 3 rookies on the same like would not be a good idea. That would also be the most expensive 4th line in league history. And then Gudbrandson on the 1st pairing good god- Jack Hughes here we come.

We paid more than your suggested return for gudbranson ..

A 2nd and a B prospect for a top 30 dman in the league on a good contract is an absolute garbage return.
While I agree Tanev is worth more than that return, using Gudbrandson as the measuring stick is not the way to go. Benning got bent over on that deal, and he didn't even get taken out for dinner first.

I still hold the stance that the only way we can move Tanev now is if we get a Hamonic type return. If not, then let him groom Juolevi on sheltered 2nd pairing minutes and hope he can stay healthy during the year to be moved at the deadline along with Edler.
 

Canadian Canuck

Hughes4Calder
Jul 30, 2013
14,223
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He's going to try.

The nicest thing you can say about having Benning as gm is that he is often unable to execute on his terrible plans.

Imagine if he had managed to pull off that lucic trade a few years ago. We would likely not have Boeser and lucic would probably be signed to an ugly extension. Horrible to think about.
Yes but nobody knew Boeser would turn out like this or Lucic would decline that fast
 

JuniorNelson

Registered User
Jan 21, 2010
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E.Vancouver
Im thinking that where there is smoke,there is usually fire.I can see Benning moving Tanev,then trading the 7th for Hannifin.
Or maybe they have somone in mind come UFA day,,,

I would like Canucks to have dynamic management, too! It would be great if free agents wanted to come here and trade candidates gladly waived. It is more likely Canucks begin separating fans from their children because of all the free advertising it generates.
 
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tyhee

Registered User
Feb 5, 2015
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Yes but nobody knew Boeser would turn out like this or Lucic would decline that fast

Certainly you're right that nobody has a magic crystal ball so nobody knew how either Boeser or Lucic would do.

On the other hand when considering a target for a trade or free agent signing, it is necessary to figure out what that player is worth. Part of his current value includes estimating how much that player may decline during the term of the contract. If someone says "we don't know if he'll decline so it shouldn't be taken into account" then there will be a lot of cases where a player is signed for too much money and too much is given in trade when those ignored possibilities come to pass and the player declines.

Players decline with age. On average forwards are losing scoring production well before they hit 30. Power forwards who play very physically and fight subject their bodies to more abuse and run the risk of declining early. There was every reason to think it likely that Lucic would decline earlier than, for instance, a slim fit skill forward playing the same position, Daniel Sedin for example.

Not taking that risk into account and just assuming that a player will continue for another six or seven years to be as effective as he was in his early and mid-twenties leads to overvaluing the veteran player being traded for (or signed as a free agent.)

In the cases of Lucic and Eriksson, it led to the Oilers and Canucks respectively signing veteran players to too much money for way, way too long. Just because we didn't KNOW that Eriksson and Lucic would decline doesn't mean the possibility should have been ignored, nor that it wasn't substantial.

By the way, the latest studies seem to suggest scoring production on average peaks at age 24 or 25, declines very slowly until about age 29, then declines faster. These are on average of course and there are exceptions, but failing to take this into account because it is an average and there are rare exceptions can't help but lead to overpayment.

Some articles of interest on aging:

When NHLers get old, they get old fast - Sportsnet.ca
How scoring rates change as players age
A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

Of particular interest is from the article listed above in sbnation: "On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp."

To pay a player as if the likelihood of decline didn't exist simply leads to, on average, paying too much.
 

sting101

Registered User
Feb 8, 2012
15,707
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He's going to try.

The nicest thing you can say about having Benning as gm is that he is often unable to execute on his terrible plans.

Imagine if he had managed to pull off that lucic trade a few years ago. We would likely not have Boeser and lucic would probably be signed to an ugly extension. Horrible to think about.
idk i always thought the Lucic interest was created for signing him as a UFA the next summer.
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
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Of particular interest is from the article listed above in sbnation: "On average, players retain about 90% of their scoring through age 29, but the drop from there is pretty sharp."

To pay a player as if the likelihood of decline didn't exist simply leads to, on average, paying too much.

Average being the key word here.

Henrik had his best years between the ages of 28-32
Daniel from 26-31
Naslund from 28-33
 

member 290103

Guest
My bet? Tkachuk or Zadina will fall to Vancouver and Benning will pass on both to grab a shitty d-man who is really not on anyone's radar.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
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Montreal, QC
Really now? Let’s see you’re proof of people’s predictions of us wanting to draft Boeser because he’ll be an all star ..I’ll wait.

Is this seriously what we've come to?

Benning trying to trade his first for a rental of lucic is okay because we can't find posts on hfboards specifically saying that we shouldn't do it because we should select Boeser.

The new defense of any tactic is that none of the fans were prescient enough to completely nail the eventual outcome with absolute certainty.

Lord...
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
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My bet? Tkachuk or Zadina will fall to Vancouver and Benning will pass on both to grab a ****ty d-man who is really not on anyone's radar.

If Dobson and Bouchard are gone at 7, and the Canucks can’t work out a deal for Hanifin, Karlsson, or O’Reilly, I can see Benning drafting by position and selecting Barret Hayton (assuming Kotkaniemi is gone).

I just get this weird feeling that Hayton might be on Benning’s radar IF Kotkaniemi and the defensemen that Benning wants to draft or trade for are unavailable.
 
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Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
Jun 21, 2014
9,668
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Is this seriously what we've come to?

Benning trying to trade his first for a rental of lucic is okay because we can't find posts on hfboards specifically saying that we shouldn't do it because we should select Boeser.

The new defense of any tactic is that none of the fans were prescient enough to completely nail the eventual outcome with absolute certainty.

Lord...

Benning trading a 1st for Lucic would have been a mistake in retrospect. Unfortunately when you move picks for players, there is a small but sizeable risk of having it blow up it in your face.

At the time however, the Canucks were a playoff team and had earned the right to push a little more for “the now.”

Being a hometown boy, the risk of Lucic coming here and then letting his friends/family down by darting for another team in the off-season would have been quite low. The Canucks also had more than enough cap space to re-sign Lucic (unlike LA).

Although Lucic had an off year in Boston, I don’t think anyone could have predicted that Lucic would fall that drastically in a few short years.

Furthermore - players selected 23rd overall, or in the bottom 3rd of the draft, typically don’t become superstars. The statistics are not in their favor.

So yes - in retrospect, the Boeser for Lucic deal would have been brutal, but from a statistics standpoint, and where the team was at the time, Benning made the right call.
 
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