Confirmed with Link: ROR traded to STL

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Vincenzo Arelliti

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If Thomas is forced to be our 2C, I would be comfortable saying he will hit more than 10G 33Pts. I’m also pretty confident in his defensive abilities.
 

BlueDream

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Aug 30, 2011
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Yeah, I liked Brodziak but let's not give him too much credit. He's a 4C while Thomas' ceiling could be that of a 1C. Having a guy of that caliber 4th on our depth chart is a humongous upgrade moving forward.
 
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A Real Barn Burner

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Apr 25, 2016
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Talking about Brouwer got me thinking.

Current Blue

Later Traded


Left in Free Agency

Here's All The Moving Pieces It Took To Make The Ryan O'Reilly (And I Suppose a Bit Of The Schenn) Trade Happen:

:sabres
Tage Thompson
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
STL '19 1st
STL '21 2nd
:blues
Ryan O'Reilly
:caps
STL '16 1st 28OA (Lucas Johansen)
WSH '16 3rd 87OA (Garrett Pilon)
:blues
WSH '16 1st 26OA (Tage Thompson)
:flyers
WSH '17 1st 27OA (Morgan Frost)
STL '18 1st 14OA (Joel Farabee)
Jori Lehtera
:blues
Brayden Schenn
:caps
Kevin Shattenkirk w/ retention
Pheonix Copley
:blues
WSH '17 1st 27OA (Morgan Frost)
Conditional WSH '17 2nd (Joni Ikonen)
Zach Sanford
Brad Malone
:caps
T.J. Oshie
:blues
Troy Brouwer
Pheonix Copley
WSH '16 3rd 87OA (Garrett Pilon)
:sabres
Jaroslav Halak
Chris Stewart
William Carrier
STL '15 1st 25OA (Jack Roslovic)
STL '16 3rd 89OA (Linus Nassen)
:blues
Ryan Miller
Steve Ott
:avs
Erik Johnson
Jay McClement
STL '11 11OA (Duncan Siemens)
:blues
Kevin Shattenkirk
Chris Stewart

COL '11 2nd 32OA (Ty Rattie)
:bruins
David Warsofsky
:blues
Vladimir Sobotka
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
OUT:
Tage Thompson
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
STL '19 1st
STL '21 2nd

STL '17 1st 28OA
WSH '17 3rd 87OA

Kevin Shattenkirk
Pheonix Copley


T.J. Oshie

Jaroslav Halak
Chris Stewart
William Carrier
STL '15 1st 25OA
STL '16 3rd 89OA


Erik Johnson
STL '11 1st 11OA
Jay McClement

David Warsofsky




CURRENT BLUE:
Ryan O'Reilly

Brayden Schenn

Zach Sanford




LEFT IN FA:
Troy Bouwer

Brad Malone

Ty Rattie



In other words:


LOST TO FREE AGENCYTRADED OUTCURRENT BLUE
Troy Brouwer
Brad Malone
Ty Rattie
T.J. Oshie
Kevin Shattenkirk
Erik Johnson
Jaroslav Halak
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
Jori Lehtera
Chris Stewart
Jay McClement

Tage Thompson
Pheonix Copley
William Carrier
David Warsofsky

STL '11 1st 11OA
STL '15 1st 25OA
STL '17 1st 28OA
STL '18 1st 14OA
STL '19 1st

STL '21 2nd

STL '16 3rd 89OA
WAS '17 3rd 87OA
Ryan O'Reilly
Brayden Schenn
Zach Sanford
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So primarily the value of Eric Jhonson got us five years of shattenkirk and three years of Schenn.

Jhonson should of been traded for a 1C to begin with but I guess I’ll take it.

Nice, interesting that both the Schenn and O’Rielly trades happened with the cooperation of Washington.
 
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A Real Barn Burner

Registered User
Apr 25, 2016
2,443
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Talking about Brouwer got me thinking.

Current Blue

Later Traded


Left in Free Agency

Here's All The Moving Pieces It Took To Make The Ryan O'Reilly (And I Suppose a Bit Of The Schenn) Trade Happen:

:sabres
Tage Thompson
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
STL '19 1st
STL '21 2nd
:blues
Ryan O'Reilly
:caps
STL '16 1st 28OA (Lucas Johansen)
WSH '16 3rd 87OA (Garrett Pilon)
:blues
WSH '16 1st 26OA (Tage Thompson)
:flyers
WSH '17 1st 27OA (Morgan Frost)
STL '18 1st 14OA (Joel Farabee)
Jori Lehtera
:blues
Brayden Schenn
:caps
Kevin Shattenkirk w/ retention
Pheonix Copley
:blues
WSH '17 1st 27OA (Morgan Frost)
Conditional WSH '17 2nd (Joni Ikonen)
Zach Sanford
Brad Malone
:caps
T.J. Oshie
:blues
Troy Brouwer
Pheonix Copley
WSH '16 3rd 87OA (Garrett Pilon)
:sabres
Jaroslav Halak
Chris Stewart
William Carrier
STL '15 1st 25OA (Jack Roslovic)
STL '16 3rd 89OA (Linus Nassen)
:blues
Ryan Miller
Steve Ott
:avs
Erik Johnson
Jay McClement
STL '11 11OA (Duncan Siemens)
:blues
Kevin Shattenkirk
Chris Stewart

COL '11 2nd 32OA (Ty Rattie)
:bruins
David Warsofsky
:blues
Vladimir Sobotka
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
OUT:
Tage Thompson
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
STL '19 1st
STL '21 2nd

STL '17 1st 28OA
WSH '17 3rd 87OA

Kevin Shattenkirk
Pheonix Copley


T.J. Oshie

Jaroslav Halak
Chris Stewart
William Carrier
STL '15 1st 25OA
STL '16 3rd 89OA


Erik Johnson
STL '11 1st 11OA
Jay McClement

David Warsofsky




CURRENT BLUE:
Ryan O'Reilly

Brayden Schenn

Zach Sanford




LEFT IN FA:
Troy Bouwer

Brad Malone

Ty Rattie



In other words:


LOST TO FREE AGENCYTRADED OUTCURRENT BLUE
Troy Brouwer
Brad Malone
Ty Rattie
T.J. Oshie
Kevin Shattenkirk
Erik Johnson
Jaroslav Halak
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka
Jori Lehtera
Chris Stewart
Jay McClement

Tage Thompson
Pheonix Copley
William Carrier
David Warsofsky

STL '11 1st 11OA
STL '15 1st 25OA
STL '17 1st 28OA
STL '18 1st 14OA
STL '19 1st

STL '21 2nd

STL '16 3rd 89OA
WAS '17 3rd 87OA
Ryan O'Reilly
Brayden Schenn
Zach Sanford
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The Blues gave up 4 1st for two low end 1C. Would they have been better off offer sheeting an Elite 1C in 2015 or 2016?

We wouldn’t have Thomas so I think not but it is interesting that the price is similar.

I brought it up in your main board thread but thought I’d bring it up here as well since that one is a mess.
 
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A Real Barn Burner

Registered User
Apr 25, 2016
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That's a little misleading to say the Blues gave up four 1sts for a low end 1C.

I don’t know how it’s misleading. Part of one 1st was to bury Lethra however they did give up 4 1st round picks for two players. More than that considering the 2nd we gave up as well.

So the point still stands, any time offer sheets come up the thought of giving up 4 1st is viewed as crazy by most fans on these forums but that what Armstrong has done.

I’m completely happy with him doing so and think it was the better approach than putting all his eggs in one basket with an Elite potiental 1C.

Thomas is the major reason for that the Blues got extremely lucky there.
 

WeWentBlues

Registered User
May 3, 2017
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I don’t know how it’s misleading. Part of one 1st was to bury Lethra however they did give up 4 1st round picks for two players. More than that considering the 2nd we gave up as well.

So the point still stands, any time offer sheets come up the thought of giving up 4 1st is viewed as crazy by most fans on these forums but that what Armstrong has done.

I’m completely happy with him doing so and think it was the better approach than putting all his eggs in one basket with an Elite potiental 1C.

Thomas is the major reason for that the Blues got extremely lucky there.
Except for the fact that he hasn't given up four 1st round draft picks. This is a very flawed way to look at asset management going back to 2010.

It would be more correct to look at net assets in versus out.

For example - the Blues may have sent a 2011 1st to Colorado (which I assume you are counting as one of the four 1sts), but they also received Colorado's second round pick. Blues pick ended up 11th overall. Avalanche pick ended up 32. The net value here is completely different than surrendering a 1st round pick altogether in a offer sheet scenario. Also factor in that Shattenkirk was traded for a 1st round pick in 2017 which was then traded to Philly for Schenn.

It would be more accurate to say that the Blues traded their 2018 1st and traded back 21 spots in the 2011 NHL draft for Brayden Schenn than it would be to say that we traded three first round picks in that deal. Not to mention all the intermediate value we received with Shattenkirk, Stewart, et. al. in the Blues system for x number of games.
 
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Alklha

Registered User
Sep 7, 2011
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I don’t know how it’s misleading. Part of one 1st was to bury Lethra however they did give up 4 1st round picks for two players. More than that considering the 2nd we gave up as well.

So the point still stands, any time offer sheets come up the thought of giving up 4 1st is viewed as crazy by most fans on these forums but that what Armstrong has done.

I’m completely happy with him doing so and think it was the better approach than putting all his eggs in one basket with an Elite potiental 1C.

Thomas is the major reason for that the Blues got extremely lucky there.
No, we wouldn't have been better offer sheeting someone a few years ago. It is entirely different and can't be compared.

To sign a player to an offersheet that the other team won't match means that you are overpaying that player. So not only are you overpaying a player, you are compounding that by giving up your next 4 chances of getting an impact player on an ELC to offset it. That is why it is seen as crazy.

How high are you going to have to go on an elite centre to have the other team not match? Now, if you are looking at someone like Matthews then you are looking at a ridiculous number for the Leafs not to match.

Also, you are moving 4 unknowns in an offersheet. We moved 2; the 2018 first & 2019 first. We knew the board in 2017 when we made the Schenn trade. We had Thompson for 2 years when we made the O'Reilly trade. We have a far better idea of what we're walking away from.

We also made these trades while still selecting other players in the first round. It was done on the basis that we knew we could move those pieces and still be adding quality to our prospect pool.

The truly elite centres are near impossible to get without drafting them, or the Bruins being idiots. Offer sheets won't work, at least not without crippling the acquiring teams cap situation.
 
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TK 421

Barbashev eats babies pass it on
Sep 12, 2007
6,445
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Watched a video on YouTube yesterday that showed ROR and his brother Cal doing off season workouts. It was from several years ago but that vid matches up with what I've heard about him having an outstanding work ethic. This guy is a total boss when it comes to off season training.
 

Brian39

Registered User
Apr 24, 2014
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I'm a fan of the moves this offseason, but let's not forget Backes/Stastny so easily.

From a production standpoint it's really not close unless ROR and Schenn both suffer major dropoffs this season.

in 2014/15 Backes had 58 points whils Stasnty had 46 (51 point pace). That's a combined 109 point pace

In 2015/16, Backes had 45 points while Stastny had 49 (63 point pace). That's a combined 108 point pace.

Last year, Schenn had 70 points while ROR had 61. That's a combined 131 points. Even if you ignore Stastny's struggles to stay healthy, that's a 20% increase in production. If they each see a 10 point regression, we're still talking about slightly better offensive production than the Backes/Stastny combo. That regression seems extremely unlikely given ROR's usage in Buffalo and his extreme consistency over the last 4 years. Stastny wasn't playing the defenseive role he was last year while Backes was here, so it's not like both were shut down centers. Schenn is the worst defensively of that group, but ROR is every bit as good defensively as Backes/Stastny and better on the dot.

I don't think it is at all hyperbole to say that ROR/Schenn is a better 1-2 punch down the middle than Backes/Stastny. It is basically indisputable that it is a better offensive combo.
 

A Real Barn Burner

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Except for the fact that he hasn't given up four 1st round draft picks. This is a very flawed way to look at asset management going back to 2010.

It would be more correct to look at net assets in versus out.

For example - the Blues may have sent a 2011 1st to Colorado (which I assume you are counting as one of the four 1sts), but they also received Colorado's second round pick. Blues pick ended up 11th overall. Avalanche pick ended up 32. The net value here is completely different than surrendering a 1st round pick altogether in a offer sheet scenario. Also factor in that Shattenkirk was traded for a 1st round pick in 2017 which was then traded to Philly for Schenn.

It would be more accurate to say that the Blues traded their 2018 1st and traded back 21 spots in the 2011 NHL draft for Brayden Schenn than it would be to say that we traded three first round picks in that deal. Not to mention all the intermediate value we received with Shattenkirk, Stewart, et. al. in the Blues system for x number of games.

Your still missing the point. Has nothing to do with Jhonson trade. He has given up 4 1st round draft picks without going back to Jhonson.

Schenn was 2017 Washington 1st and
2018 Blues 1st some value of which buried Lethra.

Orielly was 2019 Blues 1st and 2016 Blues 1st (Tage Thompson) and a 2nd in a distant galaxy far far away.

It was still 4 1st round pick even if one was Washington’s from the Shattenkirk trade.
 

Brian39

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Apr 24, 2014
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Your still missing the point. Has nothing to do with Jhonson trade. He has given up 4 1st round draft picks without going back to Jhonson.

Schenn was 2017 Washington 1st and
2018 Blues 1st some value of which buried Lethra.

Orielly was 2019 Blues 1st and 2016 Blues 1st (Tage Thompson) and a 2nd in a distant galaxy far far away.

It was still 4 1st round pick even if one was Washington’s from the Shattenkirk trade.

You're still missing the point that 4 consecutive 1st round picks with zero lottery protection is significantly different than 4 assets that are a combination of your own (lottery protected) 1sts, another team's 1st and a prospect who is 2 years removed from being a 1st round pick. At the time of the ROR trade, we had drastically more info about what Thompson would become than we would have any of the 1st rounders used in an offer sheet. It is pretty certain that Thompson is not going to be a franchise player. The same can not be said about 1sts used in an offer sheet. Being able to use Washington's 1st in the Schenn trade instead of our own was a big deal because it allowed us to take Thomas (who was likely the last guy we identified as a grade A prospect and wouldn't have been available if he had to lose our own 1st instead of Washington's).

A combination of any 4 assets that were once 1st rounders of some type is drastically different than trading your own 1st round pick in 4 consecutive years. Especially since both of our own 1st rounders were top-10 protected, which you can't do with an offer sheet.

So even before you get to the cap implications of successfully offersheeting a superstar RFA, your premise that Army has given up equal compensation is flawed. By your logic, we should have held a parade when Army traded a 3rd round pick for the 2012 first overall pick.
 

A Real Barn Burner

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No, we wouldn't have been better offer sheeting someone a few years ago. It is entirely different and can't be compared.

To sign a player to an offersheet that the other team won't match means that you are overpaying that player. So not only are you overpaying a player, you are compounding that by giving up your next 4 chances of getting an impact player on an ELC to offset it. That is why it is seen as crazy.

How high are you going to have to go on an elite centre to have the other team not match? Now, if you are looking at someone like Matthews then you are looking at a ridiculous number for the Leafs not to match.

Also, you are moving 4 unknowns in an offersheet. We moved 2; the 2018 first & 2019 first. We knew the board in 2017 when we made the Schenn trade. We had Thompson for 2 years when we made the O'Reilly trade. We have a far better idea of what we're walking away from.

We also made these trades while still selecting other players in the first round. It was done on the basis that we knew we could move those pieces and still be adding quality to our prospect pool.

The truly elite centres are near impossible to get without drafting them, or the Bruins being idiots. Offer sheets won't work, at least not without crippling the acquiring teams cap situation.

I agree we gave up what we knew we could without putting our eggs in one basket. I prefer the way DA handled it.

getting an RFA to Sign the offer sheet is a problem and the other team can always match. Some teams however, where cap teams with big names Pastranak, Kucherov, and one always linked the the Blues for a defenseman Leon Draisaitl. Oilers could of matched on him but would have put them in a bad spot moving forward with McDavid if LD was signed to a 10 mil deal. I don’t think you have to neccarily overpay by a huge amount if the situation dictates.

Let’s not forget Schenn was a gamble. He could of easily not worked out at center and he can still walk in two years.

Matthews is interesting Leafs would of course have matched and Thomas is of course the main reason I’m glad Armstrong went this way. However had some GM offers sheeted Matthews I doubt they would have Tavares right now.
 

A Real Barn Burner

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Apr 25, 2016
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You're still missing the point that 4 consecutive 1st round picks with zero lottery protection is significantly different than 4 assets that are a combination of your own (lottery protected) 1sts, another team's 1st and a prospect who is 2 years removed from being a 1st round pick. At the time of the ROR trade, we had drastically more info about what Thompson would become than we would have any of the 1st rounders used in an offer sheet. It is pretty certain that Thompson is not going to be a franchise player. The same can not be said about 1sts used in an offer sheet. Being able to use Washington's 1st in the Schenn trade instead of our own was a big deal because it allowed us to take Thomas (who was likely the last guy we identified as a grade A prospect and wouldn't have been available if he had to lose our own 1st instead of Washington's).

A combination of any 4 assets that were once 1st rounders of some type is drastically different than trading your own 1st round pick in 4 consecutive years. Especially since both of our own 1st rounders were top-10 protected, which you can't do with an offer sheet.

So even before you get to the cap implications of successfully offersheeting a superstar RFA, your premise that Army has given up equal compensation is flawed. By your logic, we should have held a parade when Army traded a 3rd round pick for the 2012 first overall pick.

Well at least you finally got the point. Next time just say I’m sorry I misunderstood what you were saying after one post where you said I was misleading and another where you thought I was referencing the Jhonson trade rather than trying to attack my logic by saying this is anywhere near trading for Yakapouv.

4 1st round picks in which we would all assumed to be bottoms of the round hold the same value until the player has been selected. If your not a playoff team why give up the picks?

There is of course more risk associated with your team not making the playoffs. The upside is you could have an Elite C under team control for 7 years even if you have to overpay.

I said I preferred the team we have now and that there was less risk associated with the way Armstrong traded the 4 1st. The fact that we drafted Thomas skews that heavily.

However, we have long lacked an Elite Center I wouldnt be so quick to dismiss it.
 

Brian39

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Apr 24, 2014
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Well at least you finally got the point. Next time just say I’m sorry I misunderstood what you were saying after one post where you said I was misleading and another where you thought I was referencing the Jhonson trade rather than trying to attack my logic by saying this is anywhere near trading for Yakapouv.

4 1st round picks in which we would all assumed to be bottoms of the round hold the same value until the player has been selected. If your not a playoff team why give up the picks?

There is of course more risk associated with your team not making the playoffs. The upside is you could have an Elite C under team control for 7 years even if you have to overpay.

I said I preferred the team we have now and that there was less risk associated with the way Armstrong traded the 4 1st. The fact that we drafted Thomas skews that heavily.

However, we have long lacked an Elite Center I wouldnt be so quick to dismiss it.

Learn how to read user names before being condescending and assuming people magically agree with you. I didn't misunderstand you at all and at least I know who I'm replying to. I wasn't the guy who said you were being misleading, but saying that our packages for Schenn and ROR is the same as the cost to offer sheet an unnamed elite 1C is incorrect.

The Yakupov analogy was an example of how your premise is flawed, not a comparison of value. Your recognition that a 3rd rounder for Yak isn't the same as a 3rd rounder for a 1st overall is the entire point.

No team knows that they are going to be a playoff team for 4 consecutive years n the future. Plenty of teams with an elite C miss the playoffs once or twice in a 4 year window. Acting lilke "you know they will be late 1sts when you offer sheet the guy'" is absurd.

We haven't even touched on the fact that ROR and Schenn combined probably make close to what you would need to pay that 1 center in order to successfully offer sheet him (I'd wager that the savings from that guy would be about $2 mil less than what we pay both combined). How exactly are we plugging that hole? If it is with Backes, Stastny or Lehtera, suddenly we're talking about spending a hell of a lot more than we are on ROR and Schenn. If it's an external option, what hole are we creating on the roster since we can't realistically afford to give up any more prospects?
 
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A Real Barn Burner

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Learn how to read user names before being condescending and assuming people magically agree with you. I didn't misunderstand you at all and at least I know who I'm replying to. I wasn't the guy who said you were being misleading, but saying that our packages for Schenn and ROR is the same as the cost to offer sheet an unnamed elite 1C is incorrect.

The Yakupov analogy was an example of how your premise is flawed, not a comparison of value. Your recognition that a 3rd rounder for Yak isn't the same as a 3rd rounder for a 1st overall is the entire point.

No team knows that they are going to be a playoff team for 4 consecutive years n the future. Plenty of teams with an elite C miss the playoffs once or twice in a 4 year window. Acting lilke "you know they will be late 1sts when you offer sheet the guy'" is absurd.

We haven't even touched on the fact that ROR and Schenn combined probably make close to what you would need to pay that 1 center in order to successfully offer sheet him (I'd wager that the savings from that guy would be about $2 mil less than what we pay both combined). How exactly are we plugging that hole? If it is with Backes, Stastny or Lehtera, suddenly we're talking about spending a hell of a lot more than we are on ROR and Schenn. If it's an external option, what hole are we creating on the roster since we can't realistically afford to give up any more prospects?

My apologize for combining you with the other user and if me telling him he missing the point was condescending. I was just frustrated. I was being very clear 4 1st round picks for Schenn and Orielly. Nothing to do with Jhonson or just one low end one C.

You on the other hand where being condensing from the get go. You piggy backed off my response to him with a “Your missing the point”. I wasnt missing any of his points. Then followed that up with a Yakupov analogy that was hyperbole, and the way you phrased it was insulting and unnesscary.

I don’t think it “absurd”to bet on your team to make the playoffs if your plugging one of its biggest holes. Injuries happen though even with an elite 1C good chance we would of missed last year.

As I said I’m quite ecstatic about the current team it would take going completely devils advocate to answer your other question. If I named a 1C (Mackinnon, Matthews, Draistaitl) we could of offer sheeted, researched how we could still ended with good draft picks, made speculations on trades that still could of happened, and how the salary cap would of gone to fill out the rest of the roster it would revolve into nothing more than a what if game.

I’ll just leave this topic. I agree with Alklha we wouldn’t have been better off. Although I don’t completly agree that it’s not completely comparably it’s just a hell of a lot more risky.
 
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byrath

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Jan 28, 2008
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This is such a load of bull**** lol. You ever play a team sport where you’re the best player on the team by a mile? You know how frustrating that is? Now multiply that by 1,000 and you have what ROR has dealt with. Played on trash team after trash team and his character gets dragged through the mud because he dared ask for a salary representative of his impact on the ice. He’s a great ****ing hockey player and has only once been on a decent team, and that team had a horseshoe up their ass the entire season. The guys on the team are thrilled to have him and he fills a huge hole in our roster and we gave up next to nothing to acquire him. This is one of the better trades in our team’s history and is a huge step toward competing for a Stanley Cup again. Forgive me for not giving a **** that he didn’t fistbump a cocky kid after he scored a goal.

That good season or two that the Avs had with ROR are a pretty distant memory at this point, I'm guessing. He should be pretty pumped to be on a team that should be at least a 2nd tier contender. Anyone who's been on a bad team in so much as slowpitch or little league knows how much it sucks. Yeah, especially if you're one of the better players on that team. You can be a professional, or a 'good soldier', as much as possible but its still demoralizing and its harder to get motivated. Won't be too surprised to see ROR have a great season, iirc he also almost never gets hurt too, which has more value than some people seem to give it. Schwartz getting hurt last year sent us into a downward spiral that we never really recovered from.

That said I'm not quite as bullish on the trade as you .. Thompson should at least be a solid 3rd line player and could be a 30 goal guy if he gets the right opportunities ... and a 1st + 2nd, even late ones, have good value given our recent drafting record. I still like the trade though. :D
 

BlueDream

Registered User
Aug 30, 2011
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I’ll bet Thompson never gets more than 25 goals, and I don’t think he will ever be more than a third liner. I can’t express how glad it was Thompson that was traded out of all of our top prospects.
Yep. 30 goals is hard to do. Thompson has a good shot but he has a lot of things to work on before he can even begin thinking of that number.
 

Vincenzo Arelliti

He Can't Play Center
Oct 13, 2014
9,363
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Lisle, IL
Yep. 30 goals is hard to do. Thompson has a good shot but he has a lot of things to work on before he can even begin thinking of that number.
Seriously, I didn’t want my hot take to be too spicy, but I honestly think 20ish goals is his ceiling if everything goes right - and I don’t have a lot of confidence in anything other than his one-timer.
 
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